The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

Kwality

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Gigantor

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No way the AFL would remove itself from free to air......but should be noted that with Kayo charging itsself out at $25 it is hard to see how the AFL could get away with charging greater than that for the AFL only
True, it's hard to make the numbers stack up. You might be able to charge the equivalent of 8mths x $25 = $200.
But then you need 500,000 subscribers to bring in $100 million per annum (big ask, but possible for the AFL).

To get back up to current income levels, the AFL would then need:
1. some FTA money coming in
2. a fair bit of advertising revenue from taking full control of a footy specific subscription service
3. maybe bring in some money from another digital provider by selling access to highlights?
4. possibility of packaging some other type of programming for the big social media providers?

Not sure if we'd get back to what we're making now, at the same time, I don't buy into the disaster scenario, the AFL is well placed to minimise potential losses.
 

Kwality

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True, it's hard to make the numbers stack up. You might be able to charge the equivalent of 8mths x $25 = $200.
But then you need 500,000 subscribers to bring in $100 million per annum (big ask, but possible for the AFL).

To get back up to current income levels, the AFL would then need:
1. some FTA money coming in
2. a fair bit of advertising revenue from taking full control of a footy specific subscription service
3. maybe bring in some money from another digital provider by selling access to highlights?
4. possibility of packaging some other type of programming for the big social media providers?

Not sure if we'd get back to what we're making now, at the same time, I don't buy into the disaster scenario, the AFL is well placed to minimise potential losses.
Whats happening in other markets, how is FTA travelling, we are tiddlers in the viewer market, the dollars market.
 

Gigantor

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Whats happening in other markets, how is FTA travelling, we are tiddlers in the viewer market, the dollars market.
FTA is declining, we all know it.
But, there are two perspectives:
1. the decline is such that party is over for the NRL and AFL
or
2. the decline is such that the only thing worth any money is major sport, like the NRL and AFL. At least this might allow FTA to survive a few years beyond its natural life span. They will pay less, no doubt, but they will pay a quantum which allows them to continue being much, much bigger than other sports. For how long? Another deal or two.
 

NoobPie

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True, it's hard to make the numbers stack up. You might be able to charge the equivalent of 8mths x $25 = $200.
But then you need 500,000 subscribers to bring in $100 million per annum (big ask, but possible for the AFL).

To get back up to current income levels, the AFL would then need:
1. some FTA money coming in
2. a fair bit of advertising revenue from taking full control of a footy specific subscription service
3. maybe bring in some money from another digital provider by selling access to highlights?
4. possibility of packaging some other type of programming for the big social media providers?

Not sure if we'd get back to what we're making now, at the same time, I don't buy into the disaster scenario, the AFL is well placed to minimise potential losses.
I'm actually quite bullish about the next rights value

It is interesting that there were 380 thousand Kayo subscribers in the June quarter of this year. Of those 130K tuned in to the Richmond Eagles game alone at some point. I'm not sure how many primarily AFL motivated Kayo subscribers that suggests but you would think it suggests at least a substantial minority.

This of course is in the context of and existing deal that sees:

- ongoing foxtel cable subscribers that can produce 460K for finals that a simulcast of free to air broadcasts
-foxtel go subscribers that could produce 100K plus screen starts to home and away games
-apparently 1.6 million AFL live app subscribers

As you have observed, mass watched sport remains gold to FTA stations. Australia's major sports never went "full cable" (due to anti siphoning laws and in the AFL's case at least enlightened self interest). Foxtel may have paid good money to maintain its monopoly but ultimately never got beyond 30% household penetration and could never seriously price discriminate

The digital revolution and hyper connectivity creates enormous opportunities for the AFL. Its cultural power over half the country is enormous which creates substantial potential value to FTA networks, telcos, global media companies (think Disney's existing relationship with the AFL), social media providers and other large tech companies

My tip is the AFL rights will jump 50% plus again like it has done so for every deal over the last several decades
 

RussellEbertHandball

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The NFL, where in most big markets there is a 90+% penetration of pay TV and have had so for over 20 years, has its own 24/7 cable station, still broadcasts many games nationally on Free TV as well individual teams in it's primary TV market. The AFL copy so much of what the NFL do. Free TV broadcasts are here to say for the next couple of decades.
 

The_Wookie

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The NFL, where in most big markets there is a 90+% penetration of pay TV and have had so for over 20 years, has its own 24/7 cable station, still broadcasts many games nationally on Free TV as well individual teams in it's primary TV market. The AFL copy so much of what the NFL do. Free TV broadcasts are here to say for the next couple of decades.
I still say the AFL should have bought some of, if not all of, 7mate.
 

Rabman

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Melbourne ratings for a Friday night games is usually one of the best rating programs each week. Very few programs bar the news and MAFS can match the regular audiences that AFL matches can bring. I’d say with the way FTA is going football will be more valuable to 7.
 

BringBackTorps

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SMH R. Masters 15.9.2019

This is an interesting article.

R. Masters usually baits the AFL, but he here quotes Colin Smith, Global Media & Sports expert. Smith said the AFL is having strong growth in NSW & Qld ; & "...The AFL by 2035-2040 could be the national football code...this will push the NRL into a second rung sport".

 

Gigantor

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Masters continues with his old trick of just talking avout TV ratings, giving the impression that the AFL and NRL are somehow functioning at similar levels.
 

abcde12345

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Masters continues with his old trick of just talking avout TV ratings, giving the impression that the AFL and NRL are somehow functioning at similar levels.
I actually thought it was a relatively unbiased and decent article, especially as far as Roy Morgans goes. Some glossing over certain points, such as overlapping games impacting average figures, but I thought he was clearly saying that V'landy has a big task ahead of him and that the AFL has done well in entrenching itself north of the Murray.
 

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Our Game

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The NRL will still have the problem that its not really a national comp with no teams in SA and WA
Big Australia wide companies want to promote their products to the whole of the nation not just the eastern states and this will impact on the NRL.
 

Kwality

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Melbourne ratings for a Friday night games is usually one of the best rating programs each week. Very few programs bar the news and MAFS can match the regular audiences that AFL matches can bring. I’d say with the way FTA is going football will be more valuable to 7.
More AFL on Thursday nights?

JW:
We would love as much AFL as we could get on Thursday nights. We will support the AFL in whatever they want to do. If there is talk about a twilight Grand Final we will support them. It is not up to us to lead discussions on that.


&

Network Seven’s bold new plan to tackle NRL rights


It is understood that Seven has reached out to the NRL to express an interest in gaining the rights as part of an attempt to capture greater market share in Sydney and Brisbane, in a move that could end its long association with televising the AFL.

The Seven boss said holding onto the AFL would be his preference but he floated the idea of taking the State of Origin series if full NRL rights could not be achieved.

“The numbers have been pretty spectacular across the board for the AFL, so I think the number one winter sport is the AFL. So if you had to choose, you’d choose the AFL. Which is not to say that you wouldn’t want to do more in Sydney or Brisbane with NRL, or you wouldn’t want to look at something like the State of Origin series.”


 

Freomaniac

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This is why the draft shouldn't exist, but that is for another thread.

My way of thinking is obviously Tassie deserves to be next cab off the rank but NT cause of the hot conditions means their home games would have to be at night. This means Sunday night can become a permanent timeslot with the game either being played in NT or WA. And if a public holiday in the Eastern states on a monday it can be played in the Eastern states as well. More money for TV rights with minimal impact on crowds
I didnt mind channell tens AFL coverage to be honest.....

Actually the TV rights was at its best when Foxtel had all the rights, But 4 games were on Free to air.

I remember at one period, Chanel 10 had 2 of those games which was saturday arvo and saturday night. Channel 7 had the other 2 free to air games in Friday night and sunday arvo
 

BringBackTorps

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SEN Melb. Radio Lyon & Watson program 29.10

An interesting discussion, with M. Stevens, Ch. 7 AFL reporter.

Paraphrasing,

. T. Watson said more Thursday night games will be shown in future years (ie after 2020)

. M. Stevens said Thurs. night games will become the main marquee game of the week, more important than the Fri. night game " It will only grow".

. G. Lyon said, re his Ch. 9 network "We would love to show Thurs. night games".


Tas. joining as the 19th team was never mentioned; nor, with 11 extra H & A games pa, there will be a concomitant need for an 11 extra time slots.

More jungle drums for Tas. joining the AFL c. 2025?


EDIT:

SEN Radio Maher & Murphy program 29.10

A. Maher asked R. Oakley, former AFL CEO, if he thought Tas. should join the AFL as the 19th team soon.

Oakley said, paraphrasing, the AFL can afford to put a team in Tasmania. TV ratings are good in Tasmania already, so the AFL would not base a team there for the Tas. ratings- but placing a team in Tasmania "would resonate well for the rest of the football community. People think it is the right thing to do now".

A. Maher also said later "It is the right thing to do now. The game would be better if Tasmania joins". R. Murphy agreed.
Maher said he thinks, despite others having contrary views, that the next Broadcast Rights deal would be about the same as the current deal financially.
I inferred from this comment that he believes the AFL should grant a licence to Tas. soon, & not be deterred by the possibility the next deal might be less.
 
Last edited:

RussellEbertHandball

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I didnt mind channell tens AFL coverage to be honest.....

Actually the the TV rights was at its best when Foxtel had all the rights, But 4 games were on Free to air.

I remember at one period, Chanel 10 had 2 of those games which was saturday arvo and saturday night. Channel 7 had the other 2 free to air games in Friday night and sunday arvo
What do you mean by - TV rights was at its best when Foxtel had all the rights??

Foxtel never had all the rights.

2002-06 deal Foxtel (50% Telstra, 25% Murdoch, 25% Packer) took the lead in negotiations and they set up Fox Footy Channel (FFC) with 5 different state versions of FFC so that there were no live matches against the gate and 9 had 2 games, Friday night and Sunday arvo and 10 had a Saturday arvo and Saturday night game. 10 did all the finals as 9 had NRL coverage to produce. 7 didn't take up their last bid rights option as they were going to start their C7 cable sports channel vs the world court case. Packer and Murdoch knew they would make a big loss to steal the rights away from 7 so that's why Foxtel was the lead party, Telstra bore 50% of the losses. The original FFC was reported to have lost at least $100m and upto $120m over the 5 year deal

2007-11 deal Kerry Packer on his death bed at end of 2005 committed 9 to a high deal value, confident he could screw 7+10 on the way to the grave, 7+10 consortium matched it as 7 had rights to last bid offer, and 10 sided up to them and not 9 and Foxtel. They got the rights then spent 13-14 months in a shit fight with Foxtel and it took Andy D to bang heads and a final deal was sorted out a couple of weeks before the first NAB Cup game of 2007, Austar chipped in monies to join Foxtel and all games were shown live against the gate on Fox Sports (50% Murdoch, 50% Packer at the start of 2007, before Jamie started selling down his share after Kerry died). 7 did Friday night and a Sunday game and 10 Saturday arvo and Sunday game, with 7 doing all Thursday night games and 7 and 10 split public holiday games and rotated finals, GF and brownlow. Back in 2007 there was only Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2 not the dozen or so Fox Sports channels like today.

2012-16 Foxtel and 7 were on better terms and they effectively jointly bid, as Stokes had bought a fair chunk of Packer's 50% share of Fox Sports. 7 produced 4 games, Friday night, Saturday arvo, Saturday night, Sunday 3.20pm EST and did Thursday night games and public holiday games and the new Fox Footy did the rest with the ch 7 games that clashed with their coverage, were put on Fox Sports extra channel on channel 503.

2017-22 News Corp was the lead party on this deal not Foxtel, as they were in process of becoming 65% owner of Foxtel and I think had completed the 100% takeover ownership of Fox Sports. 7 cut back further and only does 77 games , ie Friday nights, a Saturday night and Sunday arvo at 3.20EST game which make up 66 games so they drop a Saturday night and 2 Sunday arvo game over the split round as the season is now 23 rounds, and they produce 11 other games - 8 Thursday night games + 3 Public holiday games.
 

Freomaniac

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What do you mean by - TV rights was at its best when Foxtel had all the rights??

Foxtel never had all the rights.

2002-06 deal Foxtel (50% Telstra, 25% Murdoch, 25% Packer) took the lead in negotiations and they set up Fox Footy Channel (FFC) with 5 different state versions of FFC so that there were no live matches against the gate and 9 had 2 games, Friday night and Sunday arvo and 10 had a Saturday arvo and Saturday night game. 10 did all the finals as 9 had NRL coverage to produce. 7 didn't take up their last bid rights option as they were going to start their C7 cable sports channel vs the world court case. Packer and Murdoch knew they would make a big loss to steal the rights away from 7 so that's why Foxtel was the lead party, Telstra bore 50% of the losses. The original FFC was reported to have lost at least $100m and upto $120m over the 5 year deal

2007-11 deal Kerry Packer on his death bed at end of 2005 committed 9 to a high deal value, confident he could screw 7+10 on the way to the grave, 7+10 consortium matched it as 7 had rights to last bid offer, and 10 sided up to them and not 9 and Foxtel. They got the rights then spent 13-14 months in a shit fight with Foxtel and it took Andy D to bang heads and a final deal was sorted out a couple of weeks before the first NAB Cup game of 2007, Austar chipped in monies to join Foxtel and all games were shown live against the gate on Fox Sports (50% Murdoch, 50% Packer at the start of 2007, before Jamie started selling down his share after Kerry died). 7 did Friday night and a Sunday game and 10 Saturday arvo and Sunday game, with 7 doing all Thursday night games and 7 and 10 split public holiday games and rotated finals, GF and brownlow. Back in 2007 there was only Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2 not the dozen or so Fox Sports channels like today.

2012-16 Foxtel and 7 were on better terms and they effectively jointly bid, as Stokes had bought a fair chunk of Packer's 50% share of Fox Sports. 7 produced 4 games, Friday night, Saturday arvo, Saturday night, Sunday 3.20pm EST and did Thursday night games and public holiday games and the new Fox Footy did the rest with the ch 7 games that clashed with their coverage, were put on Fox Sports extra channel on channel 503.

2017-22 News Corp was the lead party on this deal not Foxtel, as they were in process of becoming 65% owner of Foxtel and I think had completed the 100% takeover ownership of Fox Sports. 7 cut back further and only does 77 games , ie Friday nights, a Saturday night and Sunday arvo at 3.20EST game which make up 66 games so they drop a Saturday night and 2 Sunday arvo game over the split round as the season is now 23 rounds, and they produce 11 other games - 8 Thursday night games + 3 Public holiday games.
Ok so foxtel didnt have all the games until 2012.

The point was..... I didnt mind having 4 free to air games every week
 

Freomaniac

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FTA is declining, we all know it.
But, there are two perspectives:
1. the decline is such that party is over for the NRL and AFL
or
2. the decline is such that the only thing worth any money is major sport, like the NRL and AFL. At least this might allow FTA to survive a few years beyond its natural life span. They will pay less, no doubt, but they will pay a quantum which allows them to continue being much, much bigger than other sports. For how long? Another deal or two.
the other major question is, will Foxtel pay more money in the next tv deal for the AFL?
 

Freomaniac

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Foxtel probably won't. I suspect the STV, streaming, mobile components will be quite a bit bigger though
Strange if that is the case......

I know its not a Sport But Professional Wrestling is a strange industry. WWE is a Unique beast.....

In the 1970s and 1980s, WWEs main source of income was ticket sales and Merchandise.

In the 1990s and 2000s, It was Pay Per View, just like UFCs current source of income. I mean if a pay per view cost is $30. And wwe got 200,000 PPVs a month. Thats 200,000 times $30 is 6 million a month, $36 million a year.

In the 2010s its main money comes from tv Rights and internet. TV networks are paying 200 million a year for Raw, and 200 million a year for smackdown. WWE has its own WWE network and people are paying 10 US Dollars a month.

NBA is a unique beast compared to other US sports.

I know you have NBA TV which is an Internet streaming service. I doubt every NBA game would be on ESPN cable. It would cost ESPN too much money. Esepecially when there are 4-8 games played each day at the same time.
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
18,145
8,504
Parts Unknown
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SEN Melb. Radio Lyon & Watson program 29.10

An interesting discussion, with M. Stevens, Ch. 7 AFL reporter.

Paraphrasing,

. T. Watson said more Thursday night games will be shown in future years (ie after 2020)

. M. Stevens said Thurs. night games will become the main marquee game of the week, more important than the Fri. night game " It will only grow".

. G. Lyon said, re his Ch. 9 network "We would love to show Thurs. night games".


Tas. joining as the 19th team was never mentioned; nor, with 11 extra H & A games pa, there will be a concomitant need for an 11 extra time slots.

More jungle drums for Tas. joining the AFL c. 2025?


EDIT:

SEN Radio Maher & Murphy program 29.10

A. Maher asked R. Oakley, former AFL CEO, if he thought Tas. should join the AFL as the 19th team soon.

Oakley said, paraphrasing, the AFL can afford to put a team in Tasmania. TV ratings are good in Tasmania already, so the AFL would not base a team there for the Tas. ratings- but placing a team in Tasmania "would resonate well for the rest of the football community. People think it is the right thing to do now".

A. Maher also said later "It is the right thing to do now. The game would be better if Tasmania joins". R. Murphy agreed.
Maher said he thinks, despite others having contrary views, that the next Broadcast Rights deal would be about the same as the current deal financially.
I inferred from this comment that he believes the AFL should grant a licence to Tas. soon, & not be deterred by the possibility the next deal might be less.
I dont mind the thursday night games.

so theres 9 next year.

I was hoping for 11.
 

Kwality

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
20,175
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Strange if that is the case......

I know its not a Sport But Professional Wrestling is a strange industry. WWE is a Unique beast.....

In the 1970s and 1980s, WWEs main source of income was ticket sales and Merchandise.

In the 1990s and 2000s, It was Pay Per View, just like UFCs current source of income. I mean if a pay per view cost is $30. And wwe got 200,000 PPVs a month. Thats 200,000 times $30 is 6 million a month, $36 million a year.

In the 2010s its main money comes from tv Rights and internet. TV networks are paying 200 million a year for Raw, and 200 million a year for smackdown. WWE has its own WWE network and people are paying 10 US Dollars a month.

NBA is a unique beast compared to other US sports.

I know you have NBA TV which is an Internet streaming service. I doubt every NBA game would be on ESPN cable. It would cost ESPN too much money. Esepecially when there are 4-8 games played each day at the same time.
Does Aus follow world trends ?
 

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