The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

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NoobPie

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Lol!

"Network Ten owners CBS Viacom has deep pockets and despite poor ratings in the past, the US owned network is currently working on making a major pitch for the rights to NRL according to sources."

 

Kwality

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For those looking to outfits such as Netflix bidding for the AFL rights next time round:

Interesting comment by Netflix on sport:

'Company CEO, Reed Hastings, has now been quoted in Germany’s Der Spiegel that he would consider bidding for F1 in future.

“A few years back, the Formula 1 rights were sold,” Hastings said.

“At that time, we were not among the bidders, but today we would definitely consider that now.”

Such a move would be something of a market shift for the operation, which has carved out its position by providing on-demand entertainment.

That has, to date, not included live sport.

“We make entertainment and not journalism, which should have certain standards and follow ethical guidelines,” Hastings explained.

“We also keep our hands off live sport.

“With sports broadcasts we have no control over the source. We don’t own the Bundesliga [German football], which can make deals with whomever it wants.

“But this kind of control would be a prerequisite for us to be able to offer our customers a secure deal.”


 

JohnZ

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For those looking to outfits such as Netflix bidding for the AFL rights next time round:
That's netflix.

Amazon Prime already has a deal with the NFL and Apple has been interested in College Football (not sure if they ended up taking that or not). Twitter has broadcast Soccer.

So clearly Netflix is off the table, but I don't think they were ever a serious consideration compared to the other streaming companies I mentioned above.
 

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Bjo187

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I was just talking to my mate in Sydney. He says AFL games are barely ever on the main channel up there. If the AFL spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on development in the northern markets then surely they should negotiate a minimum amount of games on the main channel per season. The main channel gets at least double the amount of viewers as the other channels. Also I was told there is no NRL on free-to-air TV on a Saturday at all. This is an open market for the AFL to use. Take a bit less in the TV rights and ensure that the game is on the main channel on a day with no competition on fta. You would have much better penetration into the northern markets and value for money as opposed to all the spending of money elsewhere for expansion.
 

Kwality

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That's netflix.

Amazon Prime already has a deal with the NFL and Apple has been interested in College Football (not sure if they ended up taking that or not). Twitter has broadcast Soccer.

So clearly Netflix is off the table, but I don't think they were ever a serious consideration compared to the other streaming companies I mentioned above.
What dollars did your examples pay?
We all know the AFL & NRL are the beneficiaries of status quo. Unless the media rights continue to fund both codes, their will need to be cuts.

Its the business model behind Netflix's comments that points to the thinking, potentially of that sector more widely that caused me to post here. Where the dollars come from.
 

JohnZ

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What dollars did your examples pay?
We all know the AFL & NRL are the beneficiaries of status quo. Unless the media rights continue to fund both codes, their will need to be cuts.

Its the business model behind Netflix's comments that points to the thinking, potentially of that sector more widely that caused me to post here. Where the dollars come from.
Amazon is paying $1B a year for Thursday Night games (17 games per year). That deal lasts 11 years. So that's $11B on the table.

edit: NFL Thursday Night has averaged 14m viewers on fox 2018-2020.

So like for like, they could potentially offer 1/14th of that for Thursday Nights for the AFL (for 22-23 games in a season, so paying slightly less per viewer per game). That would be about ~$70m per year. From the age (See below), Ch7 currently pay ~$150m a year for 3.5 games a week (~$40m per game), as a point of comparison.

 
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JohnZ

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Where the dollars come from.
I forgot to add, the dollars come from the fact that you pay amazon to watch the footy, but because it's included in amazon prime, you'll also shop with them and give them more and more money. It's an incentive to get you in, and once you're in you'll spend. Now they might only convert 20% of footy watchers, or maybe it'll be the partners of said footy watchers (footy watcher pays for amazon prime for footy, partner shops with amazon prime because it's "free").

There's no loss here. These companies aren't in the business of losing money. They do it because it's an investment that has a high return on investment (ROI).

Ch7 is no different. The only reason we still have Sunday Arvo footy is because the ROI on advertising from 3pm to 10pm stacks up. People watch the footy, then they watch the news, then they watch whatever Ch7 programs after 7pm on a Sunday night.

Whereas Netflix etc don't have any value add here. They don't have another reason for you to use their service. That's why Stan Sport is an extra charge on top of Stan. There's no other avenues for them to make money off you.
 

Kwality

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I forgot to add, the dollars come from the fact that you pay amazon to watch the footy, but because it's included in amazon prime, you'll also shop with them and give them more and more money. It's an incentive to get you in, and once you're in you'll spend. Now they might only convert 20% of footy watchers, or maybe it'll be the partners of said footy watchers (footy watcher pays for amazon prime for footy, partner shops with amazon prime because it's "free").

There's no loss here. These companies aren't in the business of losing money. They do it because it's an investment that has a high return on investment (ROI).

Ch7 is no different. The only reason we still have Sunday Arvo footy is because the ROI on advertising from 3pm to 10pm stacks up. People watch the footy, then they watch the news, then they watch whatever Ch7 programs after 7pm on a Sunday night.

Whereas Netflix etc don't have any value add here. They don't have another reason for you to use their service. That's why Stan Sport is an extra charge on top of Stan. There's no other avenues for them to make money off you.
I'm not saying there is a loss, its where it comes from, if at all. Loss of revenue to sport.

The problem in Australia as I see, is the big markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane) follow different codes.

As Netflix said they'd buy F1, not any of the teams.
“We also keep our hands off live sport.

“With sports broadcasts we have no control over the source. We don’t own the Bundesliga [German football], which can make deals with whomever it wants.

“But this kind of control would be a prerequisite for us to be able to offer our customers a secure deal.'




You are spot on about ROI, the dollars for the rights holders (advertising or subscriptions or both).
The business models of FTA (7 & 9) are evolving, see the OLympics. Foxtel is very different to the business that won the last rights (https://tvtonight.com.au/2021/09/foxtel-announces-news-streaming-service-flash.html).
 

JohnZ

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The problem in Australia as I see, is the big markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane) follow different codes.
1m people watch AFL on a Thursday night
14m people watch NFL on a Thursday night

Doesn't matter the market fragmentation, the raw numbers are there to be seen.
 

Kwality

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1m people watch AFL on a Thursday night
14m people watch NFL on a Thursday night

Doesn't matter the market fragmentation, the raw numbers are there to be seen.
Is that a genuine comparison regardless of the time slot. I've not real interest in NFL or the US more generally, so I'll take your word for it.
 
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JohnZ

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Is that a genuine comparison regardless of the time slot. I've not real interest in NFL so or the US more generally, so I'll take your word for it.
Yes. The NFL has 3 "primetime slots" that are shown nationwide on their equivalent of our FTA channels or cable.

Thursday Nights on Fox (FTA), averages 14m viewers - Amazon takes over from 2022/2023
Sunday Nights on NBC (FTA), averages 17m viewers
Monday Nights on ESPN (Cable), averages 12m viewers (there is some allowance for home markets to have the game on ABC, which is another FTA channel that owns ESPN)

All other games are played Sunday 1pm and 4pm local time and are stuck behind various blackout rules in local markets, but for the most part are on FTA.
 

NoobPie

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Is that a genuine comparison regardless of the time slot. I've not real interest in NFL or the US more generally, so I'll take your word for it.
If John's numbers are correct they are largely in line with population

The variation is not the same as Australia but there is still considerable variation in level of interest of the NFL in the US

Also, the AFL is at a level now in NSW and QLD when it can more than hold its own on a multi channel
 

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NoobPie

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What does 'hold its own' mean in the context of the NRL example being discussed.

Take the Melbourne cats prelim the other Friday night. Massive blow out and up against an NRL QF

In Sydney it came third on the multichannels for the day, behind the Covid update and NCIS. In Brisbane it was a clear first and the post match and pre match equal second....


Similar story just looking at the round 1 opener....

 

Kwality

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Take the Melbourne cats prelim the other Friday night. Massive blow out and up against an NRL QF

In Sydney it came third on the multichannels for the day, behind the Covid update and NCIS. In Brisbane it was a clear first and the post match and pre match equal second....


Similar story just looking at the round 1 opener....

Pardon my ignorance but how does that influence the issue being discussed or are you making some other point?
 

NoobPie

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Pardon my ignorance but how does that influence the issue being discussed or are you making some other point?
You said....

I'm not saying there is a loss, its where it comes from, if at all. Loss of revenue to sport.

The problem in Australia as I see, is the big markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane) follow different codes.
My point was, in addition to JohnZ's claim that the AFL national ratings holding up OK in a relative (adjusted for population) comparison to the NFL, the AFL ratings in Sydney and particularly Brisbane are big enough to be ratings winners on multi-channels (even whilst being simulcast on pay tv).
 

The_Wookie

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Take the Melbourne cats prelim the other Friday night. Massive blow out and up against an NRL QF

In Sydney it came third on the multichannels for the day, behind the Covid update and NCIS. In Brisbane it was a clear first and the post match and pre match equal second....
NRL final last night rated 48,000 on a multichannel in Melbourne....came 3rd too. Rated 1,000 less than the AFL game you cite in Sydney on 7mate. Equal second in Perth...
 

NoobPie

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....aaaaand as I was saying

The fact the AFL can pull 50K in Sydney and Brisbane against NRL finals games demonstrates a unique drawing power nationally and a presence in those cities that is more than holding its own. In Brisbane in particularly it is down to barely a 3 to 1 ratio between neutral NRL and AFL matches and finals with the latter on a multichannel
 

JohnZ

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Pardon my ignorance but how does that influence the issue being discussed or are you making some other point?
The reality is, it doesn't matter where the views from form as much as how many views there are.

If you can get 1m views across the country, it doesn't really matter if 100k are from NSW/QLD because 1m views sells ads and it sells subscriptions.

Those views aren't worth more because they come from NRL territory.
 

Kwality

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The reality is, it doesn't matter where the views from form as much as how many views there are.

If you can get 1m views across the country, it doesn't really matter if 100k are from NSW/QLD because 1m views sells ads and it sells subscriptions.

Those views aren't worth more because they come from NRL territory.
Some advertising markets are more valuable than others, aka more profit .... its the economy of scale.
 

Kwality

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Interesting commentary on the evolving business model of Foxtel & the Australian marketplace:

It’s one of the most overused cliches in the business, but it’s undeniably true so I’ll use it anyway: content is king. Still.

Take Foxtel’s Kayo as an example. The sport streaming service launched in November 2018 and recently hit the million paid subscribers mark. That’s a remarkable achievement. In part in comes from getting to market quickly. In part it comes from News Corp being willing to take a hit to its cable service to boost its new OTT service. But more than anything, it comes down to content. Kayo has the rights to many of Australians’ favourite sports and athletic competitions. People subscribe to and stick with the platform not just because they like sport but because they love the convenience of streaming their favourite teams and sporting stars straight to their living room all on the one service.

Clearly the AFL rights are going to continue to pull good money.
 

RUNVS

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Interesting commentary on the evolving business model of Foxtel & the Australian marketplace:

It’s one of the most overused cliches in the business, but it’s undeniably true so I’ll use it anyway: content is king. Still.

Take Foxtel’s Kayo as an example. The sport streaming service launched in November 2018 and recently hit the million paid subscribers mark. That’s a remarkable achievement. In part in comes from getting to market quickly. In part it comes from News Corp being willing to take a hit to its cable service to boost its new OTT service. But more than anything, it comes down to content. Kayo has the rights to many of Australians’ favourite sports and athletic competitions. People subscribe to and stick with the platform not just because they like sport but because they love the convenience of streaming their favourite teams and sporting stars straight to their living room all on the one service.

Clearly the AFL rights are going to continue to pull good money.
I imagine the Kayo data is pretty good in terms of how many people are watching various sports, the age demographics and where these people are watching. Would be interesting to see the AFL and NRL figures.
 

Kwality

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I imagine the Kayo data is pretty good in terms of how many people are watching various sports, the age demographics and where these people are watching. Would be interesting to see the AFL and NRL figures.
Its probably available, just take a bit of finding.

They've tended to lump numbers together across Foxtel, Kayo & Binge & they are about to launch a news service.
 

JohnZ

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Kwality thought this might interest you. Amazon is looking to buy the NFL "Sunday Ticket" package which gives them the opportunity to stream all "out of market" games US-wide. The way the NFL works is that your city is assigned to its "local" NFL team, and so on FTA that team gets shown on Fox/CBS. However if you want to watch the other 12 games played on a Sunday Arvo (13 of 16 games are played at either 1pm or 4pm New York time) you need to have access to "Sunday Ticket". If you live in New York and want to watch the New England Patriots (Boston) play every Sunday, you have to buy this package the NFL sells (currently via directTV which is a satellite cable company).


It's worth $2.5B a year (reported figure). DirecTV currently pays $1.5B a year (reported figure)

edit: Apparently Apple and the NFL are also in talks about "Sunday Ticket"


Netflix/Disney are content creators. They don't benefit as much from live sport because they have nothing to sell you on once you sign up. If they wanted to show live sport, they'd have to make it a surcharge like StanSport is a surcharge. Amazon and Apple make content (and buy content) so that you spend money on their other products. The money is out there for the AFL, and because the NRL extended out to 2027 we get to go first. Could be a big payday.
 
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The_Wookie

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Netflix/Disney are content creators. They don't benefit as much from live sport because they have nothing to sell you on once you sign up. If they wanted to show live sport, they'd have to make it a surcharge like StanSport is a surcharge. Amazon and Apple make content (and buy content) so that you spend money on their other products. The money is out there for the AFL, and because the NRL extended out to 2027 we get to go first. Could be a big payday.
Dinsey own ABC and ESPN.

They do charge extra in the US for ESPN over the Disney+ bundle
 

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