The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

NoobPie

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Bloody Nora . Only April in the second season and they,re already talking about the new media contract.
Third season!

Last time they signed it 20 months out but I suspect they pretty much start working towards the next one before the ink is dried
 

Kwality

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Why would they pay for a mere 6 hours of content that is guaranteed to be on FTA?????
Why do you think that "making a statement" will be their motive???
1.National audience, international audience & it pays premium advertising dollars.

2.Ist my read on how whats happening overseas might apply here. FANG have made 'a statement' in other markets, why not Aus, cant see either AFL or NRL being first cab off the rank. Origin holds a very distinct place in Aus sport, akin to the Melbourne Cup IMHO.

Facebook has continued to use global partnerships with lower-tier sports as a means of dipping its toe in the water, while also adding more flagship properties – such as Major League Baseball (MLB) in North America and La Liga in India – through geo-targeted deals in markets where the data is telling the company that it can reach the largest audience.
http://www.sportspromedia.com/opinion/facebook-live-sports-rights-strategy-review?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=OTT+news:+Eleven+Sports+and+Onefootball+take+La+Liga+PPV;+plus+North+American+sports+industry+OTT+spending+to+hit+US$6+8bn+by+2021&utm_campaign=SportsPro+OTT+Newsletter+2019-04-18#.XLpL4OfJxeU.twitter
 

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NoobPie

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1.National audience, international audience & it pays premium advertising dollars.

2.Ist my read on how whats happening overseas might apply here. FANG have made 'a statement' in other markets, why not Aus, cant see either AFL or NRL being first cab off the rank. Origin holds a very distinct place in Aus sport, akin to the Melbourne Cup IMHO.

Facebook has continued to use global partnerships with lower-tier sports as a means of dipping its toe in the water, while also adding more flagship properties – such as Major League Baseball (MLB) in North America and La Liga in India – through geo-targeted deals in markets where the data is telling the company that it can reach the largest audience.
http://www.sportspromedia.com/opinion/facebook-live-sports-rights-strategy-review?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=OTT+news:+Eleven+Sports+and+Onefootball+take+La+Liga+PPV;+plus+North+American+sports+industry+OTT+spending+to+hit+US$6+8bn+by+2021&utm_campaign=SportsPro+OTT+Newsletter+2019-04-18#.XLpL4OfJxeU.twitter
The State or Origin does not have a big international interest, that's nonsense. Also, like by far the biggest and most iconic event in Australian sport the AFL grand final and the Melbourne Cricket Ground, it is locked into free-to-air TV by law. People aren't going to choose to stream with ads over watching it on channel 9 (or whoever wins the FTA rights next)

You keep spamming the same article and I still have no idea what you think it is saying that is supporting your "thoughts". Can you attempt to articulate?

The AFL and NRL are precisely the kind of "products" that would lend themselves to geo-targeting. Have a look at wookie's table from after round 3 in the AFL. The AFL was averaging almost 12 million viewer hours per round across FTA and foxtel and the NRL was averaging a bit over 6 million.

As a reference point, the AFL's ~12 million is more than the average premier league round domestically in the UK spread over a bigger market (though admittedly less hours of content and all behind a large pay wall).

Under the AFL's current deal, about 36% is contributed by the FTA provider who get
-about 10.5 hours of mostly prime / semi-prime content over 23 weeks including all but a handful of the home games in WA and SA.
-all of the finals
-easily the highest valued 3 hours in australian sport - the AFL grand-final

64% of the current deal is paid for by news ltd and telstra. In that time we've obviously seen the telstra live app, foxtel streaming and now Kayo which may have been part of the planning / bullishness.

The last year of this deal is in 2022. By that time the NBN will be completed and the vast majority of homes will have smart TV's

The AFL will have a whole new medium for near universal delivery of its product in Australia that can do advertising better than FTA and subscription as well as cable (maybe not quite as reliably). Plus it will have a matured mobile telephony smart phone market

It will have more players than ever bidding for its rights
 

Kwality

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Seriously you need to take off those blinkers, seeing the world thru your pro AFL, anti NRL focus. It was absolutely nothing to do with how the next lot of media rights play out, learning from what is happening overseas.
I have no problem with you opposing my suggestion that Origin would be a likely toe in the water for the likes of Facebook. Three games, national appeal, likely good earner, international appeal (NZ, UK, not some need for an anti AFL outcome)

Is it just your complete lack of commercial acumen?
Are you across the kayo thread on BF?
 
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WCfan22

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Foxtel would be mad to put any substantial monies up for it in the future. There will be new technology and the latest digital tv antennas will be able to pick up all free to air channels worldwide. Gotta love the japanese and their way of getting all the good gear out there
 

NoobPie

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Seriously you need to take off those blinkers, seeing the world thru your pro AFL, anti NRL focus. It was absolutely nothing to do with how the next lot of media rights play out, learning from what is happening overseas.
I have no problem with you opposing my suggestion that Origin would be a likely toe in the water for the likes of Facebook. Three games, national appeal, likely good earner, international appeal (NZ, UK, not some need for an anti AFL outcome)

Is it just your complete lack of commercial acumen?
Are you across the kayo thread on BF?
OK so you are reverting to your rather pathetic "blinkers" "pro-AFL" "anti-NRL" schtick again to compensate for your lack of ability to prosecute an argument? Or to reveal your complete lack of self awareness?

I am un-apologetically pro-AFL contributing to a thread about the next TV rights cycle in an AFL forum. I think modern rugby league is a bastard of a game but I actually admire how the NRL has endured in NSW and QLD despite crumbling participation and a repetitive, illogical sport.

I can't find the actual ratings for the SOO (Wookie probably knows), but I dare say that the State or Origin is not stopping NZ at 10pm kick off on a wednesday night. The total NZ tv rights for the NRL are apparently $20M a year. That's for the entire NRL season including all the Warriors matches and finals as well as the SoO.

Rugby League is a niche sport in the UK. People aren't taking Wednesday off in big numbers to watch the State of Origin in any serious numbers in the UK....at a guess you'd be lucky to get into the 10s of thousands.

State of Origin, as well as finals, are guaranteed to be on FTA tv in the next TV deal in Australia. No FANG is going to dip their toe in for 6 hours of non-exclusive content.

My position is that both the AFL and the NRL will do well at the next TV rights deal in part because they both have significant, concentrated markets

I personally think the AFL will do better because (in addition to having a larger audience) I think the new technologies will suit it.

More juice has been squeezed out of the NRL lemon to get the most of the FTA and foxtel contracts - i.e. having thursday night matches all year to the benefit of FTA and having 5 nationally exclusive games on pay TV including friday 6pm. The AFL is still discounting its rights value by insisting on telecasting all home state teams FTA in its home market outside of Victoria (offering little to the FTA while significantly reducing the scope for foxtel to turn fans outside of Victoria into subscribers).

The blurring of the boundaries between subscription and free-with-advertising models that streaming allows for works to the AFL's advantage too because it has the advantage of being able to follow a goal with an add.

And here's where the bias kicks in, but I also think that AFL offers a much more enticing product to a FANG with more potential than the NRL for the following reasons:

-the games have the backdrop of stadia teeming with average crowds of over 35K
-a reputationally "safer" and more presentable playing group
-a unique game that is differentiable from any other sport (the FANG will probably lose interest when they realise it doesn't come with the all blacks matches!)
-a game that didn't translate well to traditional analogue TV but emerging technologies offer massive opportunities to overcome these challenges
 

NoobPie

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Foxtel would be mad to put any substantial monies up for it in the future. There will be new technology and the latest digital tv antennas will be able to pick up all free to air channels worldwide. Gotta love the japanese and their way of getting all the good gear out there
How would these work?
 

NoobPie

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Facebook Brazil suggests otherwise,
No it doesn't suggest anything you think it does.

Facebook bought the rights to Copa Libertadores including a substantial amount of exclusive games it has then allowed pay TV to simulcast due to streaming issues.

I still have no idea why you think this is so relevant to the next AFL rights cycle in 4 years time?


balls & all is not the go.
Facebook bid US$600M unsuccessfully for the entire digital rights for the IPL which was almost a quarter of what the entire rights ended up going for.

The AFL and NRL next TV rights cycle does not start until 2023. The bulk of their rights value is already attributable to STV and streaming and the majority of their content is exclusive to it.

In 2015 when the AFL signed its last deal smart phone penetration was still under 80% and connected TV was far less than that. By the next deal almost everyone will have a smart TV and the (admittedly sub-ideal) NBN will have been rolled out.

The AFL are guaranteed to have all of its finals and at least 3 games a week on terrestrial TV next cycle again. But in the new era foxtel goes into the next negotiations with a much weaker hand for the similcast of these and, more importantly the 15 hours a week over the home and away season it gets exclusively. Australia has a relatively low penetration of pay TV and the monopoly is well and truly gonesksi.

It does not matter if one of the FANG does get any digital rights next time around. What is certain though:

1. They will be very much having a crack at them
2. The digital rights will be a massive component of the next TV deal whoever pays for them
3. Given the environment between this time and last time, the AFL will be in a much stronger position in selling its rights

3 of the top 5 sports viewing audiences in one deal might have some appeal over say 4 or 1, commercially speaking.
Commercially speaking, the SoO will drive a fair chunk of the FTA component of the next rights deal for the NRL, like it has all previous deals.

Just like the AFL grand final will drive a fair chunk of the FTA component of the next rights deal for the AFL.

The FTA Tv audience is relevant to the FTA value of the program.

Digital rights aren't much value when there is free access everywhere there are significant numbers watching.

This is basic stuff, really basic stuff.
 

Kwality

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Clearly your view differs from mine, no news there, will FANG be in there next time, they will have a look no doubt.
The AFL PR machine is already back grounding its acolytes in the press, but players like Fox are there on the international scene day in, day out, together with FANG, they will know the scene better than our codes having been an active part of the tender process.

As for the toe in the water approach, if the tender process of both footy codes were to close later this year, I cant see our market as attracive enough for a balls & all bid, as the PAY dollars would have to tumble & the FTA component has been suggested as a loss leader for 7.

The Origin rights if isolated will result in the NRL being valued on the same basis as the AFL & there was speculation there were tenders on that basis last time out.
That the NRL can put a number on Origin going forward. Any FANG interest can be dealt with a level of certainty. Its not an option for our game.

Toe in the water is a strategy, not relevant in your view, OK.
 

NoobPie

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Clearly your view differs from mine, no news there, will FANG be in there next time, they will have a look no doubt.

The AFL PR machine is already back grounding its acolytes in the press
It is fine to not agree until you resort to playing the "anti-NRL" "cheer leader" card under the ridiculous implicit belief that you are somehow impartial here. Your bitterness towards the AFL is pathological.

I know I am biased which gives me some chance of approaching objectivity. You think you are objective when you are blatantly not. How can you possibly know when you are thinking critically or just projecting your bitterness?


, but players like Fox are there on the international scene day in, day out, together with FANG, they will know the scene better than our codes having been an active part of the tender process.
The media/communication companies will have the same level of information asymmetry with the AFL as they have had on previous media cycles. There will just be several more of them with more platforms to commercialise the product


As for the toe in the water approach, if the tender process of both footy codes were to close later this year, I cant see our market as attracive enough for a balls & all bid,
Which is nonsense. The Australian domestic sporting content is currently worth well over a $billion a year in rights value based on existing contracts. The value of non-Australian sporting content in Australia is only worth a fraction of that (largely english soccer and US sports). It is a large market in a modern, wealthy country that is dominated by local sport

And, of course, the "tender process" is not closing this year. It is in 2023 (as per the thread title) after which pretty much all the globally valuable sports will have been renegotiated


as the PAY dollars would have to tumble & the FTA component has been suggested as a loss leader for 7.
the pay (cable/satellite) TV dollars would only tumble to the extent that streaming replaces its function. The FTA component is only $150M per year of the current deal

The Origin rights if isolated will result in the NRL being valued on the same basis as the AFL & there was speculation there were tenders on that basis last time out.
That the NRL can put a number on Origin going forward. Any FANG interest can be dealt with a level of certainty. Its not an option for our game.

Toe in the water is a strategy, not relevant in your view, OK.

Origin might be split off from the NRL and sold separately and it will still be sold to an FTA provider. This is surely beyond debate. Any digital rights for 6 hours of content will be seriously limited by the fact that nearly everyone will be watching it on terrestrial tv. I have made this point several times and it is still not clear if you have actually grasped it and yet I keep making it. Whether you are being wilfully obtuse or not, I'm almost certain that makes me the biggest fool

Both the AFL (please don't say "our game") and NRL can split off content within their seasons and sell them separately. Or they can continue to bundle their whole season. The AFL have split the FTA rights previously, there is no reason they couldn't do it with digital rights
 

Kwality

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Hey the bleedin' obvious:
he pay (cable/satellite) TV dollars would only tumble to the extent that streaming replaces its function. The FTA component is only $150M per year of the current deal


I see a toe in the water approach for Aus sport, you dont, fine ...
wilfully obtuse or not



I reject your conclusions on a toe in the water strategy, a strategy you reject, also fine ..
Origin might be split off from the NRL and sold separately and it will still be sold to an FTA provider. This is surely beyond debate. Any digital rights for 6 hours of content will be seriously limited by the fact that nearly everyone will be watching it on terrestrial tv.
With international experience going back a few years, I'd back FANG to interprete the results as a basis to go 'balls & all' at Aus sport whenever it suits them. Deeper pockets & better placed to bid.



You can & will have an opinion, fine ....
 

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Kwality

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Someone has to do the heavy lifting, produce the pictures ...

Do you see Twitter as s real contender for AFL footy?
 
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RussellEbertHandball

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Report in todays Aus the NRL might go early.
By early they report that's negotiate early, before the AFL does, rather than cancel the existing deal.

Both AFL and NRL deal finish at end of 2022. Based on previous negotiations the AFL will want to stitch up a deal between 3rd quarter of 2020 end of 2nd quarter 2021.

If NRL gets a deal done 1st or 2nd quarter next year, they will probably sell the State of Origin games separate, and probably package up some of the Tests and Auckland 9's and other events into another package.
 

Kwality

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By early they report that's negotiate early, before the AFL does, rather than cancel the existing deal.

Both AFL and NRL deal finish at end of 2022. Based on previous negotiations the AFL will want to stitch up a deal between 3rd quarter of 2020 end of 2nd quarter 2021.

If NRL gets a deal done 1st or 2nd quarter next year, they will probably sell the State of Origin games separate, and probably package up some of the Tests and Auckland 9's and other events into another package.
Dont see it affecting thr AFL?
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Dont see it affecting thr AFL?
Not really as 7 and 9 can't do both NRL and AFL each. If 10 had the cash or News Corp bought them either major shareholder or 100% and not CBS, then I think it could affect the price by 10-20% range as 10 would bid for both codes, maybe show 2 games a week on which one they won.

State of Origin by itself could be a huge. In the 1980s NSWRL was on 7 and 9 had SoO.

The big money will come from News Corp / Foxtel. They will decide which one makes them more $$$ and be prepared to pay for it. Nees Corp might buy Telstra out of their 35% before the bidding opens.
 

Ishikawa

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By early they report that's negotiate early, before the AFL does, rather than cancel the existing deal.

Both AFL and NRL deal finish at end of 2022. Based on previous negotiations the AFL will want to stitch up a deal between 3rd quarter of 2020 end of 2nd quarter 2021.

If NRL gets a deal done 1st or 2nd quarter next year, they will probably sell the State of Origin games separate, and probably package up some of the Tests and Auckland 9's and other events into another package.
Is packaging it up the best way to go you think?
ie. does opening up the potential for a bidding war for the highly desirable SOO series offset the lower premium paid on the premiership season as a result?

Can see both sides of the argument, in splitting it they may induce additional bidders who would only be keen on SOO.
 

NoobPie

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Is packaging it up the best way to go you think?
ie. does opening up the potential for a bidding war for the highly desirable SOO series offset the lower premium paid on the premiership season as a result?

Can see both sides of the argument, in splitting it they may induce additional bidders who would only be keen on SOO.

The fact that they've gone the "package" approach for decades suggests they have judged that that approach is optimal (indeed it has been revealed it is optimal by bidding process). The tests and Auckland 9s (which I thought didn't exist at all) would be worth next to nothing on their own

Not really as 7 and 9 can't do both NRL and AFL each. If 10 had the cash or News Corp bought them either major shareholder or 100% and not CBS, then I think it could affect the price by 10-20% range as 10 would bid for both codes, maybe show 2 games a week on which one they won.

State of Origin by itself could be a huge. In the 1980s NSWRL was on 7 and 9 had SoO.

The big money will come from News Corp / Foxtel. They will decide which one makes them more $$$ and be prepared to pay for it. Nees Corp might buy Telstra out of their 35% before the bidding opens.
The value of either the NRL or the AFL to foxtel has traditionally been worth more by owning both of them. Kind of analogous to having streets of the same colour in a monopoly game (actually the hint is in the name)

Ultimately the direct value of owning the premium subscription rights to either flows from the number of people who follow the game willing to pay for it (which is in turn subject to how much of the content is only available through subscription. There is a broader value in how it enables media/digital/telco competitors to grab critical mass market shares....

Foxtel / news ltd will be a big player again and will want both the AFL and NRL. Telstra selling out of fox sports would be a great outcome for the codes as it will split another massive player in the next TV rights cycle.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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The fact that they've gone the "package" approach for decades suggests they have judged that that approach is optimal (indeed it has been revealed it is optimal by bidding process). The tests and Auckland 9s (which I thought didn't exist at all) would be worth next to nothing on their own....
Until News Corp got out of running the ARL Commission / NRL they were always going to keep the rights stitched together with 9 and Foxtel as the broadcasters of everything. The others were just going thru the motions with News Corps having veto power. The last deal for 2018-2022 years is the only one where News Corp's power was completely eliminated from the process in over 2 decades. The next deal will be even more independent and more likely to look at alternative partners than the last one.
 

JohnZ

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Thoughts on the AFL looking to package specific markets and marquee timeslots individually whilst producing in house? If the AFL produced all 9 games, and sold the vision, would mean that smaller players like 10 would only have to produce pre/postgame from a studio/ from the ground. Wouldn't need to contract NEP etc.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Thoughts on the AFL looking to package specific markets and marquee timeslots individually whilst producing in house? If the AFL produced all 9 games, and sold the vision, would mean that smaller players like 10 would only have to produce pre/postgame from a studio/ from the ground. Wouldn't need to contract NEP etc.
You may know the answer, but why is NEP even a player for sports on FTV? Don't networks want OB vans and all that equipment on their books and not being used very often? Technology changes means they can do non sports broadcasts using SUV's rather than big expensive OB vans??
 

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