Prediction The next powerhouse club of the AFL

[juss]

If you look at the history of the league (tracing back decades) premierships seem to be won in clusters with powerhouse clubs owning the league for a few years at a time and dominating certain periods with success. Looking back to 1990 as the most relevant guide for the current league (around the time non Victorian teams joined the league and not long after the draft was installed) we've seen the following powerhouse eras through that period dominate for multiple seasons:

Eagles > North Melbourne > Crows > Brisbane > Geelong > Hawthorn > Tigers.

History would suggest this a common pattern in the way premierships are won, and that different teams occupy this pole position for a few years at a time.

Who is your prediction for the next powerhouse club of the AFL?

I can see a competitive mix for the next couple of seasons, but then my nomination is the Sydney Swans will be dominant from between 2022/23 through the mid 2020s.
Honorable mention to the Brisbane Lions who would be my next tip.

Thoughts?

 

[Zacs_Magic_Tooth]

If you look at the history of the league (tracing back decades) premierships seem to be won in clusters with powerhouse clubs owning the league for a few years at a time and dominating certain periods with success. Looking back to 1990 as the most relevant guide for the current league (around the time non Victorian teams joined the league and not long after the draft was installed) we've seen the following powerhouse eras through that period dominate for multiple seasons:

Eagles > North Melbourne > Crows > Brisbane > Geelong > Hawthorn > Tigers.

History would suggest this a common pattern in the way premierships are won, and that different teams occupy this pole position for a few years at a time.

Who is your prediction for the next powerhouse club of the AFL?

I can see a competitive mix for the next couple of seasons, but then my nomination is the Sydney Swans will be dominant from between 2022/23 through the mid 2020s.
Honorable mention to the Brisbane Lions who would be my next tip.

Thoughts?

I wouldn't have thought the Crows owned an era as a 'powerhouse', which makes their back-to-back premierships more impressive for mine. I think 4 or 5 clubs are going to hold the top rung for a few years together which will be good to watch unfold. Richmond might continue on for a little while, but after that I don't see a team dominating

 

[Aussie_boy]

Think the Dogs have the age demographic and talent for sustained success. Sydney are going to be good for years to come too.

 

[Engimal v3]

North Melbourne

 

[AFDogs]

Hopefully us. Seems to be coming together nicely. Can afford to lose a gun mid if we get the right deal also.

 

[timokane]

I like this post great discussion. I do feel richmond will stay number 1 for this year at least and kind of in 2022 next year too a bit probably time for them to go back to the pack a bit but will still be around abouts then that will be that. Great topic this one. As i do feel we are towards the end of the tigers dynasty after this year. I have richmond winning the cup again in 2021 then i feel that will be that.
Next powerhouse i have a hand full of teams:

Fremantle
St.Kilda
Sydney swans
Port
and possibly the bulldogs.

Not sure on the vic teams as yet i feel its been geelong hawthorn and now richmond so it time we had a couple of interstate powerhouses its called prgression.
I have not written of west coast but they are ageing and will be re building soon.
Like to see st.kilda and melbourne be the pride of the victorias teams.
Interstate i feel freo are due for a successfull era barring the 1 grand final apperance i think it was 2014 they are yet to gain a successful era and been in the AFL since the 1990's.
Ive got sydney swans as they are a marketers dream they too me are the flash and bling team of the AFL. A bit of glitz.
The brisbanes gws crows gold coast will be here and there i guess.
I still can not see the likes of essendon,carlton,north melbourne,hawthorn,collingwood been any where close for the years ahead.
These 5 dont have any upside esp collingwood. And carlton and essendon are just battlers these days along with north and its hawthorns time to spend some time been the cellerdweller too for once.
As with any successfull era it all comes down to managment and having the right people and everyones working together and effective and efficent. Success breeds sucess. Look at richmond.
These are my thoughts.

 

[Saints_Man]

Could see the Bulldogs, Brisbane, Melbourne, Saints and Swans all having some success over the next few years. I feel like Richmond, West Coast and Port Adelaide could all stick around as well.

 

[sydney_gws]

Hopefully us. Seems to be coming together nicely. Can afford to lose a gun mid if we get the right deal also.

I agree, you have a lot of talent. Do you think dunkley will leave, also would you be in the market for Josh Kelly in 2022 ( I guess depends on things like if you win flag or not, if dunkley leaves, if you can trade out schahe).

 

[Freomaniac]

could be anyone to be honest.

 

[CarnTheScray]

One answer would be us...but there is always a chance we simply become one of those good teams that sticks around but doesn't win a flag or multiple. Although I doubt we will be classified in that group, considering we are led by a coach who already has a flag to his name.

 

[Power Raid]

If you look at the history of the league (tracing back decades) premierships seem to be won in clusters with powerhouse clubs owning the league for a few years at a time and dominating certain periods with success. Looking back to 1990 as the most relevant guide for the current league (around the time non Victorian teams joined the league and not long after the draft was installed) we've seen the following powerhouse eras through that period dominate for multiple seasons:

Eagles > North Melbourne > Crows > Brisbane > Geelong > Hawthorn > Tigers.

History would suggest this a common pattern in the way premierships are won, and that different teams occupy this pole position for a few years at a time.

Who is your prediction for the next powerhouse club of the AFL?

I can see a competitive mix for the next couple of seasons, but then my nomination is the Sydney Swans will be dominant from between 2022/23 through the mid 2020s.
Honorable mention to the Brisbane Lions who would be my next tip.

Thoughts?

All great sides but 2 flags is hardly dominant
eagles were granted massive concessions and won just 2 flags with formidable opposition like the back end of the hawks and the might ablett cats
North built a decent side around carey but 1996 and 1999
crows an amazing back to back but not dominant


but then started compromised drafts, starting with Freos entry into the AFL then Ports.
the lions were the first dominant side with decent picks ups from fitzroy, an concession draft picks like voss (priority pick) and great pick up in aker (PSD)
Geelong built the side the hard way but sustained there position during a compromised draft period
Same said the Hawks


Then we have the tigers who built there side the hard way and maintained it


In short, there has only been one dominant side in 30 years that achieved it with concessions or compromised drafts. I'd suggest that means we won't see a walk up side in the short term winning three flags again soon.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Sydney.

 

[jabba5114]

In before someone says Carlton

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[ImissFrosty]

Dogs and dees have a decent chance given how both look this season and still have years to come at the top end. Sydney probably a chance and I'm nearly certain that Gold Coast will be dominant at some stage in Matt Rowells career there.

 

[Lsta062]

Bulldogs and Brisbane in my opinion. I always thought that 2016 Bulldogs were very much like 2008 Hawthorn. A young team winning the Premiership. When their age becomes older, then I think they’ll be the next one. They’re already starting to show signs IMO.

Similar to Richmond. Richmond were competitive in 2013-2015, but were a young squad. They didn’t really lose much to younger sides even back then, so when they became an older side, they started dominating. I think it’s Bulldogs first and then Brisbane (they’re a bit behind Bulldogs in terms of age IMO).

You never really know with these things though. Things change quickly.

 

[RobbieGray17]

I voted Melbourne because they've set themselves up nicely

 

[The_Eagles]

West Coast have a mini run every decade, more of a perennial threat than dynastical entity.
Hawthorn have winning in their veins and always fly out of a death spiral unlike.
I will bet on these two birds of prey

 

[cznsnowy91]

The suns certainly have the young talent coming through to be successful. Definitely a reasonable chance they mess it up, but if they manage to get it right and manage to retain their young stars they should be looking great in a couple of years. Not backing them in but worth a mention.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I am kinda happy that Melbourne supporters are experiencing what it was like to have Rioli at Hawthorn.

Kozi Pickett ("kosi") is worth 2 or 3 players.

He terrifies opposition fans, you know at some stage he will create at least 2 goals during the game. And nothing you can do.

Jackson will also be huge.


But i voted Sydney - they will have a decade of top 6 finishes.

 

[WillHayward]

Port Power

 

[Freomaniac]

Stuff it, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Carlton.

Carlton don't make finals, they sack David Teague

David Teague

Age

42

Ht

186cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.2

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

5.0

1star

K

3.2

2star

HB

1.8

2star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.0

3star

and get a replacement that's an upgrade on David Teague

David Teague

Age

42

Ht

186cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.2

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

5.0

1star

K

3.2

2star

HB

1.8

2star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.0

3star

. They make semi finals in 2022 and a grand final in 2023 or 2024 with Weitering, McKay, Cripps and Walsh in their prime

 

[Rotayjay]

There is no real way of telling. You might as well be asking whether the 21st of April next year will be fine or rainy.

If this thread was posted in October 2016, the most popular answers would be the Bulldogs, Sydney (the two grand finalists) and the Giants. Funnily enough, whilst the Bulldogs and Swans flopped in 2017-2020, they have come full circle and are good again. Would anyone have picked the 13th-placed Richmond to win the first of three premierships in 2017? No way.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

In every pre-season since 2017, I've tipped the Dogs to win the flag, so I may as well say them for this. But seriously, I think they're well placed. If they don't win a premiership over the next 3 seasons I think their fans should be really disappointed. Their midfield is dominant, they play a good brand for the most part, and they're still a young team but they have that finals/GF experience. I reckon it's only been the mental side that's stopped them for a few years now and that's the only thing that will stop them in the immediate future.

 

[Shane Heard]

If Max plays 150 consecutive games from now ..MFC

 

[JayJ20]

Sydney very comfortably and I can explain why. It's not about the quality of the list. It's about the quality of the competition.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Port, Geelong and Richmond are in their windows now. All of them are evenly matched. I don't believe any of them will dominate the post-Richmond era. So that's at least 5 years of even competition.

Sydney will only take a year or two to compete with the above teams, but they'll do it with a younger side that can outlast those teams. Sydney's competition when you look at age demographic are Gold Coast, Essendon, Adelaide, North, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Sydney's list is better and more advanced than any of those teams. When they peak, I don't see any of these teams competing with them.

It's similar to comparing St Kilda and Hawthorn at the beginning of 2008. People would have believed St Kilda was the next dominant team, but they were about to peak with a list in its prime. Unfortunately for them, Collingwood and Geelong were as well. Hawthorn could compete with those sides with a young team that wasn't even close to peaking yet. I recognise that Collingwood were young, but they screwed up leaving Hawthorn to dominate.

I see Bulldogs, Melbourne, Richmond and Port as Geelong, Collingwood and St Kilda. I see Sydney as Hawthorn.