Analysis The NM Devils Chessboard thread.

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Val Keating

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I don’t know a whole heap myself either. Post Cold War Europe I find a little bit dull to study outside the Ukraine.


Lukashenko is ex-Soviet army and has used a wide variety of clientelism, authoritarian tactics and his strong ties to the military. Politically, he is a mix of left wing economics and right wing social policies geared towards a form of ultra-nationalism. Relations with Russia have been patchy, but generally more solid in more recent times.

He did well to survive the fallout of the rigged 2020 election.

The blokes a straight up gangster.
 

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Val Keating

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A very pragmatic one at that.

Did you watch that interview?

He’s so believable, but then you look at a map and think….hang on, you obviously invited them and gave visas otherwise they’re not making that far.

I’m not saying everything he says is wrong, he’s 100% right on a lot of stuff. And I did get a chuckle when he spoke about Biden. He honestly makes a lot of good points, like none of them want to be there, they want to be in the West, the UK of the EU.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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Did you watch that interview?

He’s so believable, but then you look at a map and think….hang on, you obviously invited them and gave visas otherwise they’re not making that far.

I’m not saying everything he says is wrong, he’s 100% right on a lot of stuff. And I did get a chuckle when he spoke about Biden. He honestly makes a lot of good points, like none of them want to be there, they want to be in the West, the UK of the EU.
I’m about to. Should be interesting.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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travelli

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What is up with this? There is no real point and could have been the perfect time to repair relations.

Between China and Russia, I think things could get messed up over the first half of 2022.
 

CharlieMortdecai

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What is up with this? There is no real point and could have been the perfect time to repair relations.

Between China and Russia, I think things could get messed up over the first half of 2022.
I'd say the Morrison government gives zero fu**s about repairing the relationship with China at this stage of the electoral cycle. They would love to wedge Labor on the issue, but I doubt the ALP will fall for that one. If they win the election, and things don't kick off in general, they will repair it quietly after that.
 

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Kangaroos4eva

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I'd say the Morrison government gives zero fu**s about repairing the relationship with China at this stage of the electoral cycle. They would love to wedge Labor on the issue, but I doubt the ALP will fall for that one. If they win the election, and things don't kick off in general, they will repair it quietly after that.
Extremely doubt that the recent decision has a great deal to do with the electoral cycle. It is a lot more to do with alliance politics, international relations and the ongoing trade dispute. It is probably one of the few instances that domestic electoral factors aren’t driving a nation’s foreign policy.
 
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Kangaroos4eva

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What is up with this? There is no real point and could have been the perfect time to repair relations.

Between China and Russia, I think things could get messed up over the first half of 2022.
There is no repairing relations with Xi’s administration in the current climate. Perhaps further down the track, but not atm.
 

CharlieMortdecai

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Extremely doubt that the recent decision has a great deal to do with the electoral cycle. It is a lot more to do with alliance politics, international relations and the ongoing trade dispute. It is probably one of the few instances that domestic electoral factors aren’t driving a nation’s foreign policy.
Might be a happy coincidence, but Dutton's recent rhetoric, attacks on Wong, and rolling out the old appeasement myth very much point to the coalition's desire to position China as an election issue.
 

travelli

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Might be a happy coincidence, but Dutton's recent rhetoric, attacks on Wong, and rolling out the old appeasement myth very much point to the coalition's desire to position China as an election issue.
I wonder if China/Russia might try a little election tampering in Australia. An ALP government would suit them.
 

CharlieMortdecai

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I wonder if China/Russia might try a little election tampering in Australia. An ALP government would suit them.
The two major parties are so close on foreign affairs and trade I doubt it would make a lick of difference to China/Russia.
Having said that I am not really sure what their motivation for election tampering is in the first place, so maybe they will anyway.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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Might be a happy coincidence, but Dutton's recent rhetoric, attacks on Wong, and rolling out the old appeasement myth very much point to the coalition's desire to position China as an election issue.
Yea, Dutton spouting rubbish is nothing new. The rhetoric has been largely the same for months in relation to China, especially since AUKUS. Coalition spats with Wong are nothing new either and China has been a hot topic for a while now.

Not sure how the appeasement myth fits your context, unless you are using it in relation to the coalition's rhetoric towards avoiding appeasement practices in relation to China. For that point, I would read the 2020 Strategic Update, the shift in jargon and how it places China as a regional aggressor. Not saying electoral stuff is not a factor, it is likely an accelerant for some things, I am just suggesting that there are more serious factors at play that have been present, or building, for a while.
 
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Kangaroos4eva

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I wonder if China/Russia might try a little election tampering in Australia. An ALP government would suit them.
Ever so slightly more amenable perhaps, but in terms of strategy and foreign policy, they are largely the same nowadays. There are, however, some distinct differences, like the ALP not quite as gung-ho on the US alliance, etc.

Tampering would be easier in the US than in Australia. We have a pretty damn good unified electoral system here, rather than the slightly more haphazard kind of model seen in the US. For us, it would be more cyber attacks, space, reducing our regional influence amongst Asia-Pacific states, maritime disputes, etc.
 
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CharlieMortdecai

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Yea, Dutton spouting rubbish is nothing new. The rhetoric has been largely the same for months in relation to China, especially since AUKUS. Coalition spats with Wong are nothing new either and China has been a hot topic for a while now.

Not sure how the appeasement myth fits your context, unless you are using it in relation to the coalition's avoidance of appeasement practices in relation to China. For that point, I would read the 2020 Strategic Update, the shift in jargon and how it places China as a regional aggressor. Not saying electoral stuff is not a factor, it is likely an accelerant for some things, I am just suggesting that there are more serious factors at play atm.
It was Dutton who brought the appeasement myth up recently, branding Keating as "Paul Chamberlain or Neville Keating".
 

Kangaroos4eva

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It was Dutton who brought the appeasement myth up recently, branding Keating as "Paul Chamberlain or Neville Keating".
Got ya.

The guy is a *******. It is not even witty. The Howard and Rudd governments both had strong bilateral relations with China, until the latter started shift with the GFC, AirSea Battle and 2009 DWP.
 

CharlieMortdecai

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Got ya.

The guy is a *******. It is not even witty. The Howard and Rudd governments both had strong bilateral relations with China, until the latter started shift with the GFC, AirSea Battle and 2009 DWP.
Yeah, to be honest it probably speaks more to some demented vision he has for a path to the Liberal leadership than a coherent election strategy. No doubt they will try to use the issue against Labor, but ALP will present a very small target in that regard, and they will no doubt devote more energy to a hip-pocket nerve scare campaign.
 

SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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Putin is 100 per cent correct about Ukraine.

He holds the moral high ground.

The West lied to Russia about not expanding NATO east.

Remember how the US reacted when the Russians positioned missiles in Cuba?

The Russians have every right to defend their western border.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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Putin is 100 per cent correct about Ukraine.

He holds the moral high ground.

The West lied to Russia about not expanding NATO east.

Remember how the US reacted when the Russians positioned missiles in Cuba?

The Russians have every right to defend their western border.
Surprised you didn’t mention the Jupiter missiles decision in Turkey preceding the missile crisis. Shares some similarities to the modern example, though they are quite distinct.


You probably already know most, if not all of this stuff.

It is a bit of a complicated history with Ukraine and NATO. There have been relations with NATO since 1994 and Ukraine started an action plan to later join in 2008, but it was never super popular amongst the populace. Yanukovych opted out and he was a bit more pro-Russian in his policies. Then we had the Maiden Revolution in 2014, which was precipitated by a free trade/association deal with the EU not being signed. The interim government said it would not join NATO as it was not super popular still and it only initiated joining it, likely with US insistence, after the Russian intervention in the Crimea and in eastern Ukraine, which broke a few treaties as well as international law. Popular support then increased for NATO following the invasion.


The way I see it, Putin took advantage of a crisis to seize Russian-majority speaking areas of Ukraine and redraw the borders, in a not too dissimilar manner to what the Soviet Union did to Poland and later Germany in the postwar period (without the ethnic cleansing this time around). Also, he lost a major political supporter in Yanukovych and had an EU and western-leaning Ukrainian government on his doorstep. He pulled a somewhat similar (distinct) stunt with Georgia with the South Ossetia conflict.

Based on all that, I would not say Putin has all the high ground. More so grey and muddled, as the Ukraine probably should not have possessed those territories in the first place, but both nations have historical and ethnic linkages to those areas. I don't think we can entirely blame Ukraine for being reactionary against a power that took their sovereign territory and has consistently deployed military assets in one quarter of your country for several years.
 
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