Analysis The NM Devils Chessboard thread.

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SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

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Surprised you didn’t mention the Jupiter missiles decision in Turkey preceding the missile crisis. Shares some similarities to the modern example, though they are quite distinct.


You probably already know most, if not all of this stuff.

It is a bit of a complicated history with Ukraine and NATO. There have been relations with NATO since 1994 and Ukraine started an action plan to later join in 2008, but it was never super popular amongst the populace. Yanukovych opted out and he was a bit more pro-Russian in his policies. Then we had the Maiden Revolution in 2014, which was precipitated by a free trade/association deal with the EU not being signed. The interim government said it would not join NATO as it was not super popular still and it only initiated joining it, likely with US insistence, after the Russian intervention in the Crimea and in eastern Ukraine, which broke a few treaties as well as international law. Popular support then increased for NATO following the invasion.


The way I see it, Putin took advantage of a crisis to seize Russian-majority speaking areas of Ukraine and redraw the borders, in a not too dissimilar manner to what the Soviet Union did to Poland and later Germany in the postwar period (without the ethnic cleansing this time around). Also, he lost a major political supporter in Yanukovych and had an EU and western-leaning Ukrainian government on his doorstep. He pulled a somewhat similar (distinct) stunt with Georgia with the South Ossetia conflict.

Based on all that, I would not say Putin has all the high ground. More so grey and muddled, as the Ukraine probably should not have possessed those territories in the first place, but both nations have historical and ethnic linkages to those areas. I don't think we can entirely blame Ukraine for being reactionary against a power that took their sovereign territory and has consistently deployed military assets in one quarter of your country for several years.

Nah, Russia has the high ground. One of the key commitments given to Gorbachev to get him to agree to dismantling the Soviet Union peacefully was that NATO would not expand east.

A lie.

Just like the Iranians were lied to when they did the nuke deal.
 

DesertRoo

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wild, so many levels to this story antifa attack Turkish mosque in Germany, there’s a massive grey wolves population there too.

Leipzig: Mosque attacked – eleven people in custody DER SPIEGEL A Leipzig mosque was attacked on Monday evening. Four windows had been smashed, said a police spokesman. According to »Deutschlandfunk«, the church belongs to the mosque association Ditib, which is subordinate to the Turkish religious authority Diyanet. According to initial findings, the mosque was damaged in connection with an elevator of about a hundred masked people, who classify the police as a left-wing motivated group. Eleven people arrested Along the nearby eisenbahnstraße in the district of Volkmarsdorf, the group also set fire to trash cans. The police took eleven people into custody. Further information was not initially disclosed. On Monday evening, according to the »Leipziger Zeitung«, about 200 people from the left spectrum had gathered for a demonstration against police violence in the east of Leipzig. This had resulted in several property damages.
 

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Kangaroos4eva

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Val Keating

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The president of Kazakhstan has ordered the army and police to shoot to kill protesters. The protest started over fuel prices but now it’s become a potential revolution. Pretty wild.

To think we currently have people calling Australia a police state or a dictatorship. Don’t know how lucky they are.
 

ferball

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The president of Kazakhstan has ordered the army and police to shoot to kill protesters. The protest started over fuel prices but now it’s become a potential revolution. Pretty wild.

To think we currently have people calling Australia a police state or a dictatorship. Don’t know how lucky they are.
But our freedom....


Actually, if you wanted to leak the contract the government signed to get mRNA vaccines off a certain company there is a fair chance you and whoever reported on the leak to the public would be in sh*t.

Its not the same level of campaigner but its on the same road. Something I never thought I'd see here.
 

Val Keating

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But our freedom....


Actually, if you wanted to leak the contract the government signed to get mRNA vaccines off a certain company there is a fair chance you and whoever reported on the leak to the public would be in sh*t.

Its not the same level of campaigner but its on the same road. Something I never thought I'd see here.

Bit of a stretch to compare the two things.
 

ferball

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Bit of a stretch to compare the two things.
True but there is a spectrum of government power and potential for abuse and we've definitely moved along it since 9/11.

Frankly its not my business what other countries (especially if they're run by fu** wits,) get up to (to a point obviously, invasions and building bioweapons are certainly my business.) Its not necessarily good but its mostly out of my hands.

What happens here is a different story. WE saw cops pointing assault rifles at protestors in Victoria this last year. That isn't that far from where they are in Kazakhstan. (Its just a change of ammo.) ITs not the same place but they're on the same road (sure there are plenty of crossroads and forks along the way we just have to make sure we take them when they show up.)

Especially with Vic cops. They've been known for trigger happy killing sprees in the past.

The danger with looking at tin pot dictatorships and going "AT least we're not there yet" is the fact you're using the word "yet". It implies we're moving in that direction.

Philosophically people look at situations and events like they are still photos when they are actually movies and happen over time.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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Kangaroos4eva

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True but there is a spectrum of government power and potential for abuse and we've definitely moved along it since 9/11.

Frankly its not my business what other countries (especially if they're run by fu** wits,) get up to (to a point obviously, invasions and building bioweapons are certainly my business.) Its not necessarily good but its mostly out of my hands.

What happens here is a different story. WE saw cops pointing assault rifles at protestors in Victoria this last year. That isn't that far from where they are in Kazakhstan. (Its just a change of ammo.) ITs not the same place but they're on the same road (sure there are plenty of crossroads and forks along the way we just have to make sure we take them when they show up.)

Especially with Vic cops. They've been known for trigger happy killing sprees in the past.

The danger with looking at tin pot dictatorships and going "AT least we're not there yet" is the fact you're using the word "yet". It implies we're moving in that direction.

Philosophically people look at situations and events like they are still photos when they are actually movies and happen over time.
Australian cops, particularly NSW and Vic cops, have possessed that general reputation of going over the top for a few decades now, despite our population being fairly compliant. We are probably one of the most compliant peoples on earth. As long as our electoral system remains secure and our needs are mostly taken care of, then it won’t come to live rounds.

I do agree with VK’s original comment that it is a long stretch. In saying that, we are long overdue for a federal ICAC. Checks and balances. At the moment, I think some of the balances are a bit out of whack.
 
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ferball

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Australian cops, particularly NSW and Vic cops, have possessed that general reputation of going over the top for a few decades now, despite our population being fairly compliant. We are probably one of the most compliant peoples on earth. As long as our electoral system remains secure and our needs are mostly taken care of, then it won’t come to live rounds.

I do agree with VK’s original comment that it is a long stretch. In saying that, we are long overdue for a federal ICAC. Checks and balances. At the moment, I think some of the balances are a bit out of whack.
I don't like the anti-whistle blower trend and was never a fan of anti-terror or anti-association laws. The powers the governments (Fed and State) has on the books are insane compared to say ... 1999 (our last flag.) Many of these powers are barely used but are used and not necessarily in a good way.

Definitely need some sort of ICAC at a federal level. We also need some sort of human rights protection/Bill of rights codified and given constoitutional support. THose two things could be at odds with each other but that should help the system work.

WE are happy to sit back and watch what happened to David Hicks, or what is happening to Julian Assange without batting an eyelid. I know its a long way from where we are now to a Central Asian dictatorship but we shouldn't even have to be having this conversation. That means we're too close imo.
 

Kangaroos4eva

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ferball

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If the Russians launch a new invasion, “there’s going to be people who make their life miserable,” said the former senior intelligence official. The CIA-trained paramilitaries “will organize the resistance” using the specialized training they’ve received.

“All that stuff that happened to us in Afghanistan,” said the former senior intelligence official, “they can expect to see that in spades with these guys.”


From the link above.
 

Swallow_Wood

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If the strongest argument for a lab leaked Covid-19 is China acting all shifty then it ain't a particularly strong argument given secrecy is the CCP's default mode. I've been looking for a scientific smoking gun that clearly indicates a lab leak but nothing is definitive. I'm not discounting it as a possibility but the scientific evidence isn't there. Everything else is just noise.
 

DesertRoo

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If the strongest argument for a lab leaked Covid-19 is China acting all shifty then it ain't a particularly strong argument given secrecy is the CCP's default mode. I've been looking for a scientific smoking gun that clearly indicates a lab leak but nothing is definitive. I'm not discounting it as a possibility but the scientific evidence isn't there. Everything else is just noise.
You’ll probably be able to verify this then?
 

ferball

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If the strongest argument for a lab leaked Covid-19 is China acting all shifty then it ain't a particularly strong argument given secrecy is the CCP's default mode. I've been looking for a scientific smoking gun that clearly indicates a lab leak but nothing is definitive. I'm not discounting it as a possibility but the scientific evidence isn't there. Everything else is just noise.
What's more likely tho?

The combination of zoonotic jumps that is sposed to be the story of its "natural" original or a leak from a lab that's run by someone who has co-published a paper specifically about adding spike proteins to SARS to create new viruses?
 

Kangaroos4eva

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If the strongest argument for a lab leaked Covid-19 is China acting all shifty then it ain't a particularly strong argument given secrecy is the CCP's default mode. I've been looking for a scientific smoking gun that clearly indicates a lab leak but nothing is definitive. I'm not discounting it as a possibility but the scientific evidence isn't there. Everything else is just noise.
Really don’t have a horse in the man-made v natural race myself. It simply isn’t my field. I am more interested in the CCP’s initial response to the virus, and whether the damage could have been mitigated to a far greater degree in the earliest stages. Need to learn from it as the world cannot handle another pandemic like this for a while.
 

ferball

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Really don’t have a horse in the man-made v natural race myself. It simply isn’t my field. I am more interested in the CCP’s initial response to the virus, and whether the damage could have been mitigated to a far greater degree in the earliest stages. Need to learn from it as the world cannot handle another pandemic like this for a while.
I dunno if anything could have been done to mitigate it early.

The Chinese reaction when they locked down Wuhan was serious. It seems to me it was definitely a response to properly understanding what the situation was. "Oh fu** we have to stop this now."

What happened between the first inklings of the virus being out there and that moment ..... I wonder how much faster that "Oh sh*t" moment would have come in a less authoritarian place. Maybe not as long as we think. That's a hunch tho, no real basis for it.
 

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