HANS MOLEMAN
3601 SOUTH BROAD STREET
PHILADELPHIA, PENSYLVANIA, 19148
April 10, 2016
To the posters of BigFooty.com:3601 SOUTH BROAD STREET
PHILADELPHIA, PENSYLVANIA, 19148
April 10, 2016
I hope this letter finds you well. I have been serving the Basketball Board at your pleasure for the past 24 weeks. Sam Hinkie, former General Manager of the Philadelphia 76ers, remains (from afar) one of my favourite reads. He laughs that reading investor letters has long been a guilty pleasure. Reading 13-page manifestos from smart, educated, but egomaniacal NBA executives has long been one of mine.
What I hope to accomplish here is to give you an insight into what has transpired during the 2015-16 NBA regular season.
A league spanning 25 weeks requires a culture of finding new, better ways to create Opening Posts. Abraham Lincoln said "give me seven days to create a Weekly Thread and I will spend the first 6 and a half days wondering what the f*ck I should write about."
In April of 2016, a 38-year-old Sam Hinkie wrote to inform his equity partners that he could no longer run the 76ers. His reasons: given changes to the organization he no longer had the confidence that he could make good decisions on their behalf. So he would stop acting on their behalf.
For me, that's today. Given that there are no more weeks left in the regular season, I should step down from creating the Weekly Threads. And I have. But not before I take you on a quick journey through the NBA landscape of 2015-16.
Yup.
November
To begin, let's stand on the shoulders of Kristaps Porzingis, a giant to me. Let's start with him and his approach to creating the Porzingis-mania that hit the world early in the season. His two-part technique is:
1. Be tall and European.
2. Do stuff others wouldn't expect a tall, European rookie to do [1]
Lifelong learning is where it's at.
Tesla's Elon Musk describes his everyday stance as, "You should take the approach that you're wrong. Your goal is to be less wrong." Brett Brown's goal was to simply to win a single NBA game, something his team would fail to do for the entirety of November.
Luke Walton and the Golden State Warriors had no such problems, starting out an all-time best 24-0. "We are pretty f*cking good.", one imagines Walton saying after such a start.
The physicist James Clerk Maxwell described scientific curiosity as a "thoroughly conscious ignorance." Although he may also have been describing James Harden's defense this season. [2]
Investing in disruptive innovation doesn't ferment misunderstanding, it necessitates it. Jeff Bezos says it this way: "There are few prerequisites to inventing...You have to be willing to fail."
LeBron James puts it this way: "Inventions like sleeved NBA jerseys are s**t." [3]
December
It is critical to be cycle aware in a talent driven league.
Kobe Bryant announced his retirement in December, thus bringing his career cycle to an end. It was not a surprising decision given some of the shots he was indiscriminately chucking up early in the season. [4]
Coincidentally, the Lakers as a whole were struggling as well. [5]
If you want to have real success you have to very often be willing to do something different from the herd.
If you want to be the greatest shooter of all time you have to very often throw up unimaginably long 3-pointers in pre-game warm-ups. [6]
And I'm sure none of the herd can cover the floor in fewer dribbles than Giannis Antentokounmpo [7] or have hands quite as gigantic as Boban Marjanovic. [8]
Check out the the 10,000 Year Clock. It is no mere thought experiment, but an actual clock being designed to be placed inside a mountain in West Texas, wound, and left to chime for ten thousand years. Why? Who the f*ck knows!...I don't even know what I'm writing about anymore.
January
Howard Marks describes a necessary condition of great performance thusly: you have to be non-contrarian and right.
I have no idea who Howard Marks is, but David Blatt was far from being a non-contrarian (he didn't even seem to be the coach of his own team) and he was fired in January, so I guess Marks has a point.
To develop truly contrarian views will require a never-ending thirst for better, more diverse inputs. Although if your team trainer provides input that you disagree with, it's probably best not to do a Blake Griffin and punch him, lest you break your hand in the process.
Two big men had moments of contrarianism in January. Tim Duncan went scoreless for the first time in 1360 games. Andre Drummond set a record for most missed free throws (23) in a single contest. [9]
The illusion of control is an opiate. The illusion of Sasha Kaun is even greater. Not even seasoned vets like Jason Terry could recognise the Cavs centre. [10]
February
Science is about predictions. Understanding the world until you can make a prediction about what will happen next.
Derek Fisher will be fired. Markieff Morris [11] will be traded from Phoenix. These two things, easy to predict, both occurred in February.
Unfortunately we can't predict everything, such as the season-ending health issues that would befall both Chris Bosh and Marc Gasol. Both these players will be missed in the Playoffs.
And try as we might, who knows just how well Ben Simmons will play in the pros...Although I'm guessing he'll be better than previous #1 picks Anthony Bennett (cut by Toronto) and Greg Oden (cut by the Jiangsu Dragons).
March
The balance in any ecosystem ebbs and flows until something unexpected lurches ahead. We see it in spades - past, present, and future.
- New Zealand's flightless bird the moa had the life tramping around the South Island for a great long run; then the first Maori explorers washed ashore in canoes, and that was that
- Memphis used to have a controlled offense helmed by Conley, but injury meant the keys were handed over to the erratic Lance Stephenson
- MCW thought he was the man for the job in Milwaukee, but then Magic Giannison appeared.
- Dwight Howard used to be able to use stickum, but then he couldn't
- NBA fans had no idea what stickum was...and they still don't
Nobel prize winning physicist Max Planck got right to it: "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing opponents and making them see the light. It simply posts cryptic tweets then unfollows @cavs on twitter."
The Warriors ecosystem received no such shake-ups in March as the wins kept piling up. So confident were Steph's teammates that they would raise their arms in celebration even before a Curry 3 was released. [12] [13]
I'm sure such premature celebrations would confuse physicists like Planck.
Newton's 3rd law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. But what if the reaction (3-point celebration) comes before the action (3-pointer)?
April
The NBA can be a league of desperation, those that are in it and those that can avoid it. So many find themselves in the zugzwang [14], the point in the game where all possible moves make you worse off.
Welcome to the zugzwang Chicago.
Golden State are as far away from the zugzwang as humanly possible, passing 70 wins and now creeping towards the summit of the greatest Regular Season ever.
And what about you, BigFooty poster?
What lessons have you learnt from this NBA season? Are you a lifelong learner? An innovator? A contrarian? Caught in a zugzwang?
If you find yourself sitting in a courtside seat during an NBA game and the game ball comes to you, will you simply hand it back to the ref? Or will you act the contrarian, confidently grab that game ball and launch a 3-pointer for all to see? [15]
Footnotes (many of which were discovered via r/NBA)
November
[1] Kristaps Porzingis early season highlights
[2] James Harden defense
[3] LeBron James rips sleeves
December
[4] Kobe early shot-clock chuck
[5] When you play with Kobe, you have to take any shot you can get
[6] Steph Curry warm up 3's
[7] Go to your local court and try this: half court to the basket in one dribble
[8] Boban big hands
January
[9] Drummond at the free throw line
[10] Terry doesn't know who Kaun is
February
[11] We Are PHX
March
[12] Bogut celebrates before shot is released
[13] Klay celebrates before shot is released
April
[14] This paragraph, like the majority of this post, has been lifted directly from Hinkie's letter...What, you think I actually knew what 'zugzwang' meant?
[15] Courtside fan launches 3-pointer
Model Of Efficiency
The graph below plots Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for League Average). Basically the further in the top right corner you are, the better you are.
Once again, credit for the original idea goes to Bigfooty User Final Siren, who created the concept in the thread: The Race for the Flag in Squiggly Lines).
For one last time, here's the Efficiency Graph for all teams:
And for those interested, let's have a look at each team's squiggles for the entirety of the 2015-16 season. We'll do this by displaying a Graph for each Division, in order to see the squiggles clearly.
First, the Atlantic Division:
- Toronto's offensive efficiency couldn't quite reach the heights of last season, but it's still good for 5th best in the league.
- Boston started the season strong defensively before regressing a bit post-all star break, but they still have the 4th best DefRtg in the NBA.
- The season quickly became a long struggle for the Knicks.
- The 76ers improved their offense from 'historically-bad' to just plain 'bad'.
The Southeast Division:
- The most even of all Divisions.
- Atlanta's continual defensive improvement has been outstanding.
- The Heat were heading downwards on the graph before a commitment to pace saw them regain their offensive footing.
- Charlotte found themselves in Championship trophy area before faltering, then rebounding impressively in the last few months.
- Orlando were right in Playoff contention for a long stretch but faded into irrelevance.
- Washington never really found traction this season, the only Southeast team not to spend time above the break-even line.
The Central Division:
- The Cavs ain't as strong defensively as they were in the Blatt era. Their Defensive Rating is borderline championship quality.
- Indiana has done one big loop. It's unsurprisingly been difficult to maintain a sustainable offense with this roster.
- How about that regression from Chicago? What a disappointment 2015-16 has been.
- Milwaukee is still trying to work out how the pieces fit at both ends of the court.
The Pacific Divsion:
- Golden State couldn't sustain their insane early-season offense, but they're still easily #1 in the league for offensive efficiency. Their net rating is actually a touch worse than last season.
- The Clippers, 6th in both offensive and defensive efficiency, find themselves comfortably in the championship zone, but such is the quality of the Warriors/Spurs it'd be a shock to see the Clips come out of the West.
- Nice season Phoenix.
- The Lakers ended up with the worst Net Rating for the season. Yep, even worse than the 76ers.
The Northwest Division:
- OKC aren't quite the dark horse they were mid-way through the season.
- The Jazz lost their defensive identity with the injury to Gobert, then found it again to claw their way into Playoff contention.
- No one expected Portland to make the Playoffs and they have their offense to thank for keeping them above the break-even line.
The Southwest Divsion:
- That Spurs defense was at historically great levels for a while there, and while it eventually couldn't match 2008 Celtics standards, it's still clearly the best defense in the league (well, besides that one time where it was absolutely cut up by the Warriors).
- Hard to believe the Grizzlies are a Playoff team with that squiggle.
- The Rockets never found their defensive mojo.
Quiz Of The Week
Usually I get you to guess the player pictured on one 90's Basketball Card. With this being the 25th and last Weekly Thread of the season, I thought I'd give you a mega-quiz: Basketball Cards for players numbered 1 to 25.
How many of the players below can you name?
1. Scott Brooks
2. Greg Anthony
3. Rex Chapman
4. Darnell Mee
5. John Paxson
6. Trent Tucker
7. Kenny Anderson
8. Brian Williams (aka Bison Dele)
9. Charles "blocked by Pippen!" Smith
10. Mookie Blaylock
11. Manute Bol
12. Bimbo Coles
13. Kendall Gill
14. Randy Wittman
15. Vinny Del Negro
16. Bo Kimble
17. Jon Barry
18. Dan Majerle
19. Tony Campbell
20. Brian Shaw
21. Todd Lichti
22. Rod Higgins
23. Tyrone Corbin
24. Rik Smits
25. David Wingate
2. Greg Anthony
3. Rex Chapman
4. Darnell Mee
5. John Paxson
6. Trent Tucker
7. Kenny Anderson
8. Brian Williams (aka Bison Dele)
9. Charles "blocked by Pippen!" Smith
10. Mookie Blaylock
11. Manute Bol
12. Bimbo Coles
13. Kendall Gill
14. Randy Wittman
15. Vinny Del Negro
16. Bo Kimble
17. Jon Barry
18. Dan Majerle
19. Tony Campbell
20. Brian Shaw
21. Todd Lichti
22. Rod Higgins
23. Tyrone Corbin
24. Rik Smits
25. David Wingate
So how many did you get correct?
1-5: You need to brush up on your NBA history.
6-10: Not bad, especially if you were born after 1990.
11-15: Solid effort.
16-20: You're obviously a fan from way back.
21-24: Wow, you got this many? "Did this dude just did this?"
25: Like Monta Ellis, you have it all. An NBA genius.
Quick Hitters
- Big win for Dallas over Houston last week. For some reason the Rockets went for a Corey Brewer/Harden pick and roll when down 1 in the last 2 minutes. Dallas trapped Harden with no hesitation, which eventually led to a long, rushed Harden 3-point attempt.
- Brewer hurts Houston too much at the offensive end to have him on the floor in crunch time, let alone have him screen for Harden.
- Karl Anthony Towns always seems to be making big plays down the stretch in close games. We've seen it throughout the entire season...go-ahead shots in the post, blocking shots, etc, etc. This has been a seriously impressive rookie campaign.
- Alex Ajinca scored a career high 28 points yesterday. He also did this earlier in the week.
- Yesterday's win over OKC was a nice way for the Kings to say goodbye to Arco/Powerbalance/Sleep Train Arena.
- As the letter implied, this is my last Weekly Thread OP. The creation of Playoff Threads are open to anyone who wishes to create them.
Mon: Golden State @ San Antonio. A chance for the Warriors to tie the 72-win record and break San Antonio's undefeated home record in the process.
Tue: Charlotte @ Boston and Dallas @ Utah. All 4 teams have something to play for.
Wed: Memphis @ Clippers. Conspiracy theory time...The Clips lose this one on purpose so that they can face the weakened Grizz in the 1st round rather than the Blazers?
Thu: Take your pick...it's the last day of the season with everyone on tap bar the Knicks and Thunder. Potentially a lot of games that will affect the Playoff and Lottery races.
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