It's early days in the 2015-16 NBA Season and we've already seen some patterns emerging:
But can we really trust what we see at this early stage of the season?
Which of these patterns is a trend and which is a mirage?
Luckily, I'm here to provide the answers...
Trend Or Mirage
Atlanta Hawks: Best Team in the East
Verdict: Trend
The Hawks, currently atop the East with a 7-1 record, have played an East-heavy schedule thus far and given that they don't have to travel out West for another couple of weeks, we'll peg this one in as a Trend (for the short term at least).
The Hawks have continued on from last season and a big reason is Kent Bazemore ably stepping into the 3-and-D void left by DeMarre Carroll. Bazemore is able to handle opposing wing players with his length and is hitting an outstanding 55.6% of his 3's
Doc Rivers is wrong every time he complains about a call
Verdict: Mirage
Doc may be a serial whinger but the Clippers got absolutely screwed on a missed goaltending call at the end of the yesterday's game against the Rockets.
Only goaltends that have been called can be reviewed, although video review doesn't necessarily guarantee the correct outcome: I thought the refs got it wrong on a late-game goaltend review against Minnesota earlier last week.
Speaking of the Wolves...
Minnesota: Defensive Juggernauts.
Verdict: Mirage
Last season's worst defensive team currently sits 4th in Defensive Rating. While that won't last, it's still worth keeping the Wolves on your league pass radar for the rest of the season if only for their intriguing set of young players...
Wiggins had a great game against Chicago and out-athleticised Jimmy Butler: his quickness and leaping ability at times made Butler look ordinary.
But then you look at his PER (9.7) and it's clear that there's still a lot of development needed.
Also having a PER of 9.7 is Zach LaVine, who, to the chagrin of BigFooty's T-Wolves fans, is playing backup PG. While I agree with those who say Zach shouldn't be playing Point Guard, I still think he can be a more than useful player in this league.
Then there's Towns. I can't tell you just how good he'll be, but I love the emotion and passion he plays with.
...And it's always worth tuning in to watch Rubio, whose hot shooting in the season opener against L.A. may have been the biggest mirage of all.
"Derrick Rose looks like the old Derrick Rose!"
Verdict: Mirage! No, Trend! No wait, Mirage!...
Rose teased us with a strong performance against OKC last week only to follow it up with a quiet game against Minnesota.
We won't get a true verdict on this issue until Rose has 2 functioning eyes.
The more pertinent issue for Bulls fans right now is finding the right lineup combination, particularly with respect to their big men.
Here's a look at Chicago's 3 most used lineups to date (yeah small-sample size but whatever):
1. Original Starting Lineup: Rose, Butler, Snell, Mirotic, Gasol (90 minutes)
ORtg: 99.9
DRtg: 102.7
Reb%: 40.4
2. Bench Mob: Brooks, Moore, McDermott, Gibson, Noah (35 mins)
ORtg: 78.0
DRtg: 97.8
Reb%: 47.6
3. New Starting Lineup: Rose, Butler, McDermott, Mirotic, Noah (25 mins)
ORtg: 83.2
DRtg: 109.5
Reb%: 41.2
Rebounding has been a sore spot all round for the Bulls, but it's particularly putrid when Mirotic and Gasol share the floor...But then the offense with that Bench Mob is downright awful.
Will Hoiberg persist or will we see some musical chairs between Pau, Niko, Taj & Joakim?
More BigFooty Posters attending NBA Games
Verdict: Trend
Good to hear more posters are planning to Step In The Arena and catch a live NBA game this season. If you do, be sure to take pics and report back on your experience, just as Benno355 did last week with a recap that is worth reading if you haven't already:
(Note the pile of cocaine provided for the players)
The Brooklyn Nets are a legitimate NBA Team
Verdict: Mirage
The Rise of the "Point Power Forward"
Verdict: Trend
Forget looking for your Point Guard, forget the outlet pass...This season has seen a rise in Power Forwards grabbing the rebound then dribbling the ball upcourt. It's all about pushing the pace and getting a shot before the defense can set up.
Sure, a dribbling big man might lead to a Tragic Bronson moment but it can also be pretty damn impressive when it works out:
This is one of the reasons the league is on course for it's fastest-paced season by far since the early 90's (according to Basketball-Reference).
Of course, everyone's a bit out of control at the start of the season and some teams will surely slow things down a bit when they realise they're sacrificing too much control for the sake of speed (I'm looking at you, Washington).
Paul George: MVP Candidate
Verdict: Trend
Yeah, I'm calling it now: while he won't necessarily win the award, George will be amongst the MVP discusson by season's end. And even if I'm making a gross overreaction to his last 2 games (which I probably am), it's still worth noting just how good he looked in those games.
I mean, this is a dude who literally snapped his leg in half not long ago, and now he's playing as well as ever.
Just look how confidently he scored in pick and roll situations against Boston:
And in the next game against the Heat he came through in the 4th quarter, sticking jumpers at one end and suffocating Wade at the other end, to the point that all Wade could do in the last quarter was take one-dribble pullups that clanked off the rim.
It's great to see the George back and playing well.
Jeremy Lin's Hair
Verdict: Mirage
Surely I'm seeing things...there's no way someone would style their hair that way. A mirage is the only explanation.
Model Of Efficiency
The graph below plots Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for League Average) with post-All Star squiggles. Basically the further in the top right corner you are, the better you are.
Once again, credit for the original idea goes to Bigfooty User Final Siren, who created the concept in the thread: The Race for the Flag in Squiggly Lines).
It's early in the season so take the everything with a grain of salt...especially the outliers (with the exception of Golden State who are obviously going 82-0 this season).
LeBron Dellavedova Play Of The Week
Without this play we never would've gotten this (from r/NBA):
Quick Hitters
What To Watch For This Week
Mon: Lakers @ New York. Whoever wins...we lose.
Tue: Orlando @ Indiana. The Magic are a team worth keeping an eye on.
Wed: Utah @ Cleveland. Ingles vs LeBron. Only 1 will emerge triumphant.
Thu: Clippers @ Dallas. DeAndre Jordan sure to receive a warm welcome.
Fri: Golden State @ Minnesota. 2009 draftees Rubio and Curry face off. Best On Ground gets the Jonny Flynn medal.
Sat: Atlanta @ Boston. A so-so start to the season for Stevens' squad. They need to start winning games like this one.
Sun: Philadelphia @ San Antonio will be close. So will the Brooklyn @ Golden State matchup.
- "Dellavedova-to-Thompson" becoming the new "Payton-to-Kemp".
- Stephen Curry hitting the most ridiculous 3's known to man.
- Hipster Doofus complaining about the Kings.
But can we really trust what we see at this early stage of the season?
Which of these patterns is a trend and which is a mirage?
Luckily, I'm here to provide the answers...
Trend Or Mirage
Atlanta Hawks: Best Team in the East
Verdict: Trend
The Hawks, currently atop the East with a 7-1 record, have played an East-heavy schedule thus far and given that they don't have to travel out West for another couple of weeks, we'll peg this one in as a Trend (for the short term at least).
The Hawks have continued on from last season and a big reason is Kent Bazemore ably stepping into the 3-and-D void left by DeMarre Carroll. Bazemore is able to handle opposing wing players with his length and is hitting an outstanding 55.6% of his 3's
Doc Rivers is wrong every time he complains about a call
Verdict: Mirage
Doc may be a serial whinger but the Clippers got absolutely screwed on a missed goaltending call at the end of the yesterday's game against the Rockets.
Only goaltends that have been called can be reviewed, although video review doesn't necessarily guarantee the correct outcome: I thought the refs got it wrong on a late-game goaltend review against Minnesota earlier last week.
Speaking of the Wolves...
Minnesota: Defensive Juggernauts.
Verdict: Mirage
Last season's worst defensive team currently sits 4th in Defensive Rating. While that won't last, it's still worth keeping the Wolves on your league pass radar for the rest of the season if only for their intriguing set of young players...
Wiggins had a great game against Chicago and out-athleticised Jimmy Butler: his quickness and leaping ability at times made Butler look ordinary.
But then you look at his PER (9.7) and it's clear that there's still a lot of development needed.
Also having a PER of 9.7 is Zach LaVine, who, to the chagrin of BigFooty's T-Wolves fans, is playing backup PG. While I agree with those who say Zach shouldn't be playing Point Guard, I still think he can be a more than useful player in this league.
Then there's Towns. I can't tell you just how good he'll be, but I love the emotion and passion he plays with.
...And it's always worth tuning in to watch Rubio, whose hot shooting in the season opener against L.A. may have been the biggest mirage of all.
"Derrick Rose looks like the old Derrick Rose!"
Verdict: Mirage! No, Trend! No wait, Mirage!...
Rose teased us with a strong performance against OKC last week only to follow it up with a quiet game against Minnesota.
We won't get a true verdict on this issue until Rose has 2 functioning eyes.
The more pertinent issue for Bulls fans right now is finding the right lineup combination, particularly with respect to their big men.
Here's a look at Chicago's 3 most used lineups to date (yeah small-sample size but whatever):
1. Original Starting Lineup: Rose, Butler, Snell, Mirotic, Gasol (90 minutes)
ORtg: 99.9
DRtg: 102.7
Reb%: 40.4
2. Bench Mob: Brooks, Moore, McDermott, Gibson, Noah (35 mins)
ORtg: 78.0
DRtg: 97.8
Reb%: 47.6
3. New Starting Lineup: Rose, Butler, McDermott, Mirotic, Noah (25 mins)
ORtg: 83.2
DRtg: 109.5
Reb%: 41.2
Rebounding has been a sore spot all round for the Bulls, but it's particularly putrid when Mirotic and Gasol share the floor...But then the offense with that Bench Mob is downright awful.
Will Hoiberg persist or will we see some musical chairs between Pau, Niko, Taj & Joakim?
More BigFooty Posters attending NBA Games
Verdict: Trend
Good to hear more posters are planning to Step In The Arena and catch a live NBA game this season. If you do, be sure to take pics and report back on your experience, just as Benno355 did last week with a recap that is worth reading if you haven't already:
(Note the pile of cocaine provided for the players)
The Brooklyn Nets are a legitimate NBA Team
Verdict: Mirage
The Rise of the "Point Power Forward"
Verdict: Trend
Forget looking for your Point Guard, forget the outlet pass...This season has seen a rise in Power Forwards grabbing the rebound then dribbling the ball upcourt. It's all about pushing the pace and getting a shot before the defense can set up.
Sure, a dribbling big man might lead to a Tragic Bronson moment but it can also be pretty damn impressive when it works out:
This is one of the reasons the league is on course for it's fastest-paced season by far since the early 90's (according to Basketball-Reference).
Of course, everyone's a bit out of control at the start of the season and some teams will surely slow things down a bit when they realise they're sacrificing too much control for the sake of speed (I'm looking at you, Washington).
Paul George: MVP Candidate
Verdict: Trend
Yeah, I'm calling it now: while he won't necessarily win the award, George will be amongst the MVP discusson by season's end. And even if I'm making a gross overreaction to his last 2 games (which I probably am), it's still worth noting just how good he looked in those games.
I mean, this is a dude who literally snapped his leg in half not long ago, and now he's playing as well as ever.
Just look how confidently he scored in pick and roll situations against Boston:
And in the next game against the Heat he came through in the 4th quarter, sticking jumpers at one end and suffocating Wade at the other end, to the point that all Wade could do in the last quarter was take one-dribble pullups that clanked off the rim.
It's great to see the George back and playing well.
Jeremy Lin's Hair
Verdict: Mirage
Surely I'm seeing things...there's no way someone would style their hair that way. A mirage is the only explanation.
Model Of Efficiency
The graph below plots Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for League Average) with post-All Star squiggles. Basically the further in the top right corner you are, the better you are.
Once again, credit for the original idea goes to Bigfooty User Final Siren, who created the concept in the thread: The Race for the Flag in Squiggly Lines).
It's early in the season so take the everything with a grain of salt...especially the outliers (with the exception of Golden State who are obviously going 82-0 this season).
Without this play we never would've gotten this (from r/NBA):
Quick Hitters
- 2 notions that I was tempted to put in the Trend Or Mirage section:
- Memphis are "past it"
- Portland is a Playoff Team
- Portland is a Playoff Team
- But I've seen exactly 0 minutes of these teams so far this season. Could anyone who has watched these teams fill us in on these situations?
- In their season opener, the Lakers and Wolves wore warm up shirts honouring of Flip Saunders. It was good to see the Pacers and Celtics do a similar thing, as they wore t-shirts honouring Pacers great Mel Daniels during their clash last week.
- The rookie class has been solid. A number of guys have looked impressive in stretches this season...I enjoyed Montrezl Harrell's cameo against the Heat at the start of last week. Also, Porzingis is the GPBDOAT (Greatest Putback-Dunker Of All Time)
What To Watch For This Week
Mon: Lakers @ New York. Whoever wins...we lose.
Tue: Orlando @ Indiana. The Magic are a team worth keeping an eye on.
Wed: Utah @ Cleveland. Ingles vs LeBron. Only 1 will emerge triumphant.
Thu: Clippers @ Dallas. DeAndre Jordan sure to receive a warm welcome.
Fri: Golden State @ Minnesota. 2009 draftees Rubio and Curry face off. Best On Ground gets the Jonny Flynn medal.
Sat: Atlanta @ Boston. A so-so start to the season for Stevens' squad. They need to start winning games like this one.
Sun: Philadelphia @ San Antonio will be close. So will the Brooklyn @ Golden State matchup.
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