stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
So our matchups are almost set. I won't jinx anyone, so will only refer to one series for now.
OKC v Spurs
OKC took care of Dallas 4-1, whilst the Spurs blitzed an undermanned Memphis 4-0 to set up a classic semi final matchup.
Lineups
Spurs
Parker/Mills/Miller
Green/Manu/Simmons
Kawhi/Anderson
Diaw/West
Duncan/LMA/Boban
Thunder
Westbrook/Foye
Roberson/Waiters
Durant/Singler
Adams/Kanter
Ibaka/Collison
The season series was split 2-2 with the home team winning each game. The Spurs were the number 1 ranked defense in the league and the number 1 ranked offense. The Thunder were no slouches ont he offensive end, being ranked 2nd in efficiency, and coming in 12th in defense. LMA hurt his finger in their last matchup, a Spurs win against a Thunder team missing the Big 3., whilst the Spurs lost big without LMA, Kawhi, Parker and Timmay.
In OKC wins Westy had 33/10 and 29/8/6. KD had 22/6 and 31/10 whilst in the only loss with them Westy had 19/7/6 and KD had 28/8/4, so not a huge difference. Whats immediately evident, in the two Spurs wins they kept OKC to 85 and 93 points in regulation, whilst in the OKC victories, the Thunder put up 112 and 111. What is interesting is that the Thunder won the battle of the boards in every matchup by 10-14 boards. In every matchup the team shooting a higher % from the floor won, unsurprisingly perhaps. In Spurs losses they went to the FT line an average of 15 times. In Spurs victories this was 28 per game. An interesting point, the only time they shot above 30% from 3 was in a loss, every other game was in the 20's.
Its going to be interesting to see how the Spurs deal with Westbrook. Clearly they'll look to hide Parker an Roberson and as a help defender. So from that you'd infer that we'd seen Green and Mills taking turns on Parker with Manu and Parker taking Roberson and Waiters. Westbrook shot over 50% in the two OKC wins, and 30% in the only loss he played in. Its on the other end of the floor where Parker can sometimes be a liability with his lack of shooting, he's the sag off guy for OKC defensively, which can allow Westbrook to maraud looking for steals (a good and bad thing for him).
Kawhi and KD. My god. Yes. So much yes. Kawhi missed the 20 point loss against OKC but had 28ppg in his 3 games, along with a total of 8 steals and 5 blocks. Offensively its a wash, KD might win the battle by a few points, but defensively is where Kawhi offers so much more than KD ever has. If KD can turn up defensively it will help OKC so much.
So now we get to the battle of the bigs. LMA is the key obviously, he had 11 points in the opening loss, missed the 20 pt loss and put up 24/9 in the only full game he played. If Pop plays him as a small ball 5 Kanter and to a lesser extent Ibaka can't handle him. Perhaps Adams is the best equipped to deal with him, but he hamstrings you offensively.
Kanter put up numbers in the final regular season matchup with 17 and 16. In the other 3 games he had 15/16 with a plus minus of 0 (an OKC win), 20/10 (-11, OKC win) and 11/17 (-5). But he tends to only be playable when the Spurs play with 2 bigs with one of Adams or Ibaka to offer rim protection. If he cant handle LMA, Pop may well look to Diaw (or West) as the other big to offer spacing, or go with Boban to have 2 scoring bigs on the floor.
Ibaka hasnt been scoring against the Spurs this season with 32 points in 3 games. He absolute must offer something offensively for OKC to win this.
OKC as a general rule have got little from their bench bar Kanter, that holds up to some extent here. 39 in the first game, 22 in the second win (20 from Kanter), 15 in the 3rd (11 from Kanter) and 32 in the final matchup (17 from Kanter). Spurs meanwhile have had 41, 50, 23 and 30. That sounds like im cherry picking numbers to a certain extent, but the Spurs tend to get a much better spread over 4 or 5 guys rather than one guy getting 20 and the rest doing jack.
So keys to the series.
Westbrook - goes without saying. He plays well (and shoots at a decent clip), OKC win games.
KD - must limit Kawhi on the defensive end
Rebounding - OKC need to dominate here
Free throws - OKC need to keep the Spurs off the line
Bench production - Basically this is Foye, Morrow and god help us Waiters.
3 pt shooting - Whoever keeps the other to less than 30%
Coaching - Oh dear lord its worse than i thought. If Billy can do something other than call iso.....
Prediction - Spurs in... well i want to say 6, but i also want to say 7. Then again i could see 5.....
And so we have the Bradbury Blazers v Warriors
I (and most everyone else) had Portland pegged for a down year. Instead they find themselves in teh second round against a Curry-less Dubs team. Portland were one of few (well 9) teams to beat the Dubs this season, despite losing the season series 3-1. Portland put up over 100 in every matchup, unfortunately the Warriors put up a lot more in most of those games.
Portland
Lillard
CJ/Hendo
Crabbe/Harkless
Aminu/Vonleh
Plumlee/Davis
Lillard put up 38, 40, 51 and 17 against them, and after a rough early time against Chris Paul in the first round he got going against Rivers and Prigioni. I daresay he'll find himself facing a lot of Klay and Iggy due to Curry's absence. The Dubs will switch at will, especially when the go the death lineup. Livingston can look to exploit the cross match in the post against either Lillard or CJ. If Curry comes back I dare say he'll take a while to get going and would be looking to limit his minutes to build up for a longer postseason run (all going well). As good as Livingston is, he's not a threat from deep, which can effect the offensive spacing and limit the open looks that the likes of Barnes and Green enjoy from Curry-centric defences.
CJ was a touch quieter against the Dubs, putting up 19ppg or thereabouts. I'm guessing they'll look to matchup Livingston with him, altho when they finish they might have Klay on him with Iggy on Lillard. Klay put up 30 a game against Portland with Curry in the lineup. I daresay he'll look to improve on that this series, however his numbers were down against Houston, even in a series of blowouts.
Harkless has been starting lately, he and Crabbe are capable of heating up from deep, and Portland will need them to. Crabbe shot 39% from deep this season, but against the Dubs that was 23%. Barnes has been ice cold this playoffs. Iggy however has been lights out and might enjoy some minutes as the de facto point guard.
The Dubs will let Aminu launch all day long. If he knocks them down, they'll live with that. Green will be up for a moster series. Portland don't have much in the way of post threats, so the Dubs can down size at will. Green can literally guard anyone on the Portland roster
Plumdog has been beasting on the boards. He'll have a cracking battle with Bogut down low. Davis has been a pleasant surprise (for some, not for this NostraStew) as well.
GSW
Livingston/Barbosa
Klay/Rush/Clark
Barnes/Iggy
Green/Speights
Bogut/Ezeli
The Dubs defend the 3 point line, ranked 1 in the league giving up 32%. Portland were 27th at 37.2%. This is problematic to say the least against the Warriors. Portland were ranked 6th in defense in points in the paint, but the Dubs dont score a lot down low. Defensively, the Dubs weakness is points in the paint and fast break points, areas where Portland wont do a lot of damage
In some respects its almost a 2 man series. Lillard v Klay. Each team will look to stop the other, the problem being the Dubs have far more weapons. Still if Portland can limit the uncontested 3's and get out on the break, and maybe hope for a Klay or Green injury...
Series keys
Lillard v Klay - The Dubs can survie Klay to have a quiet game, but Portland need Lillard breathing fire. Still the absence of Curry means that Klay is the prime banana. How does he handle the pressure of being the man?
3 point defence - Whoever can keep the opposition to 30% will win the game more often than not
Rebounding - If Portland can win the rebounding battle, particularly the offensive boards they'll open up the second chance points
Turnovers - Portland absolutely must definitely not turn the ball over. The Dubs are absolute fire in the open court.
Curry's absence helps, but not enough that I can see an upset of almost biblical proportions happening. I'll back the Blazers to sneak one at home, and could see them taking it to 6 if Curry misses the whole series. Dubs in 5
Stats
http://www.blazersedge.com/2016/4/2...lazers-2016-playoffs-nba-damian-lillard-stats.
OKC v Spurs
OKC took care of Dallas 4-1, whilst the Spurs blitzed an undermanned Memphis 4-0 to set up a classic semi final matchup.
Lineups
Spurs
Parker/Mills/Miller
Green/Manu/Simmons
Kawhi/Anderson
Diaw/West
Duncan/LMA/Boban
Thunder
Westbrook/Foye
Roberson/Waiters
Durant/Singler
Adams/Kanter
Ibaka/Collison
The season series was split 2-2 with the home team winning each game. The Spurs were the number 1 ranked defense in the league and the number 1 ranked offense. The Thunder were no slouches ont he offensive end, being ranked 2nd in efficiency, and coming in 12th in defense. LMA hurt his finger in their last matchup, a Spurs win against a Thunder team missing the Big 3., whilst the Spurs lost big without LMA, Kawhi, Parker and Timmay.
In OKC wins Westy had 33/10 and 29/8/6. KD had 22/6 and 31/10 whilst in the only loss with them Westy had 19/7/6 and KD had 28/8/4, so not a huge difference. Whats immediately evident, in the two Spurs wins they kept OKC to 85 and 93 points in regulation, whilst in the OKC victories, the Thunder put up 112 and 111. What is interesting is that the Thunder won the battle of the boards in every matchup by 10-14 boards. In every matchup the team shooting a higher % from the floor won, unsurprisingly perhaps. In Spurs losses they went to the FT line an average of 15 times. In Spurs victories this was 28 per game. An interesting point, the only time they shot above 30% from 3 was in a loss, every other game was in the 20's.
Its going to be interesting to see how the Spurs deal with Westbrook. Clearly they'll look to hide Parker an Roberson and as a help defender. So from that you'd infer that we'd seen Green and Mills taking turns on Parker with Manu and Parker taking Roberson and Waiters. Westbrook shot over 50% in the two OKC wins, and 30% in the only loss he played in. Its on the other end of the floor where Parker can sometimes be a liability with his lack of shooting, he's the sag off guy for OKC defensively, which can allow Westbrook to maraud looking for steals (a good and bad thing for him).
Kawhi and KD. My god. Yes. So much yes. Kawhi missed the 20 point loss against OKC but had 28ppg in his 3 games, along with a total of 8 steals and 5 blocks. Offensively its a wash, KD might win the battle by a few points, but defensively is where Kawhi offers so much more than KD ever has. If KD can turn up defensively it will help OKC so much.
So now we get to the battle of the bigs. LMA is the key obviously, he had 11 points in the opening loss, missed the 20 pt loss and put up 24/9 in the only full game he played. If Pop plays him as a small ball 5 Kanter and to a lesser extent Ibaka can't handle him. Perhaps Adams is the best equipped to deal with him, but he hamstrings you offensively.
Kanter put up numbers in the final regular season matchup with 17 and 16. In the other 3 games he had 15/16 with a plus minus of 0 (an OKC win), 20/10 (-11, OKC win) and 11/17 (-5). But he tends to only be playable when the Spurs play with 2 bigs with one of Adams or Ibaka to offer rim protection. If he cant handle LMA, Pop may well look to Diaw (or West) as the other big to offer spacing, or go with Boban to have 2 scoring bigs on the floor.
Ibaka hasnt been scoring against the Spurs this season with 32 points in 3 games. He absolute must offer something offensively for OKC to win this.
OKC as a general rule have got little from their bench bar Kanter, that holds up to some extent here. 39 in the first game, 22 in the second win (20 from Kanter), 15 in the 3rd (11 from Kanter) and 32 in the final matchup (17 from Kanter). Spurs meanwhile have had 41, 50, 23 and 30. That sounds like im cherry picking numbers to a certain extent, but the Spurs tend to get a much better spread over 4 or 5 guys rather than one guy getting 20 and the rest doing jack.
So keys to the series.
Westbrook - goes without saying. He plays well (and shoots at a decent clip), OKC win games.
KD - must limit Kawhi on the defensive end
Rebounding - OKC need to dominate here
Free throws - OKC need to keep the Spurs off the line
Bench production - Basically this is Foye, Morrow and god help us Waiters.
3 pt shooting - Whoever keeps the other to less than 30%
Coaching - Oh dear lord its worse than i thought. If Billy can do something other than call iso.....
Prediction - Spurs in... well i want to say 6, but i also want to say 7. Then again i could see 5.....
And so we have the Bradbury Blazers v Warriors
I (and most everyone else) had Portland pegged for a down year. Instead they find themselves in teh second round against a Curry-less Dubs team. Portland were one of few (well 9) teams to beat the Dubs this season, despite losing the season series 3-1. Portland put up over 100 in every matchup, unfortunately the Warriors put up a lot more in most of those games.
Portland
Lillard
CJ/Hendo
Crabbe/Harkless
Aminu/Vonleh
Plumlee/Davis
Lillard put up 38, 40, 51 and 17 against them, and after a rough early time against Chris Paul in the first round he got going against Rivers and Prigioni. I daresay he'll find himself facing a lot of Klay and Iggy due to Curry's absence. The Dubs will switch at will, especially when the go the death lineup. Livingston can look to exploit the cross match in the post against either Lillard or CJ. If Curry comes back I dare say he'll take a while to get going and would be looking to limit his minutes to build up for a longer postseason run (all going well). As good as Livingston is, he's not a threat from deep, which can effect the offensive spacing and limit the open looks that the likes of Barnes and Green enjoy from Curry-centric defences.
CJ was a touch quieter against the Dubs, putting up 19ppg or thereabouts. I'm guessing they'll look to matchup Livingston with him, altho when they finish they might have Klay on him with Iggy on Lillard. Klay put up 30 a game against Portland with Curry in the lineup. I daresay he'll look to improve on that this series, however his numbers were down against Houston, even in a series of blowouts.
Harkless has been starting lately, he and Crabbe are capable of heating up from deep, and Portland will need them to. Crabbe shot 39% from deep this season, but against the Dubs that was 23%. Barnes has been ice cold this playoffs. Iggy however has been lights out and might enjoy some minutes as the de facto point guard.
The Dubs will let Aminu launch all day long. If he knocks them down, they'll live with that. Green will be up for a moster series. Portland don't have much in the way of post threats, so the Dubs can down size at will. Green can literally guard anyone on the Portland roster
Plumdog has been beasting on the boards. He'll have a cracking battle with Bogut down low. Davis has been a pleasant surprise (for some, not for this NostraStew) as well.
GSW
Livingston/Barbosa
Klay/Rush/Clark
Barnes/Iggy
Green/Speights
Bogut/Ezeli
The Dubs defend the 3 point line, ranked 1 in the league giving up 32%. Portland were 27th at 37.2%. This is problematic to say the least against the Warriors. Portland were ranked 6th in defense in points in the paint, but the Dubs dont score a lot down low. Defensively, the Dubs weakness is points in the paint and fast break points, areas where Portland wont do a lot of damage
In some respects its almost a 2 man series. Lillard v Klay. Each team will look to stop the other, the problem being the Dubs have far more weapons. Still if Portland can limit the uncontested 3's and get out on the break, and maybe hope for a Klay or Green injury...
Series keys
Lillard v Klay - The Dubs can survie Klay to have a quiet game, but Portland need Lillard breathing fire. Still the absence of Curry means that Klay is the prime banana. How does he handle the pressure of being the man?
3 point defence - Whoever can keep the opposition to 30% will win the game more often than not
Rebounding - If Portland can win the rebounding battle, particularly the offensive boards they'll open up the second chance points
Turnovers - Portland absolutely must definitely not turn the ball over. The Dubs are absolute fire in the open court.
Curry's absence helps, but not enough that I can see an upset of almost biblical proportions happening. I'll back the Blazers to sneak one at home, and could see them taking it to 6 if Curry misses the whole series. Dubs in 5
Stats
http://www.blazersedge.com/2016/4/2...lazers-2016-playoffs-nba-damian-lillard-stats.
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