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As I suspected the old people that Howard scared out of their wits for 4 years Got him back in .
Post-Election Analysis – Retirees Won the Day for the L-NP
Finding No. 3801 - By Gary Morgan and Michele Levine: October 29, 2004
POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS —
RETIREES WON THE DAY FOR THE L-NP
A special Morgan Poll on election weekend and the following weekend showed the L-NP (52.5%) ahead of the ALP (47.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. While the vote was similar among men (L-NP 52.5% cf ALP 47.5%) and women (L-NP 52% cf ALP 48%), analysis by age showed the ALP was ahead among those under 25 (ALP 53% cf L-NP 47%). The L-NP had a high 62% of the over 65 vote (ALP 38%).
Primary voting intention showed 46.5% of electors said they would or had voted for the L-NP, 37.5% for the ALP and 16% for minor parties — including 7.5% Greens, 1.5% Australian Democrats, 1.5% One Nation and 5.5% Family First, Minor Parties and Independent Candidates.
The table below shows these findings are very close to the actual election results as of the latest counting.1
Table 1. Latest Federal Election Result and the latest Morgan Poll
First Preference Results from the Australian Electoral Commission
Oct 7/8
Telephone
Morgan Poll
Oct 28, 2004 Oct 9/10 & 16/17, 2004
Sample Size (1,845)
% %
L-NP 46.72 (5.90) 46.5 (5)
ALP 37.63 37.5
Aust Dem 1.24
1.5
Aust Dem 7.18
7.5
One Nation 1.20
1.5
Ind/Other 6.03*
5.5*
Total 100 100
Two-Party Preferred Vote
L-NP 52.59 52.5
ALP 47.41 47.5
Total 100 100
.
Post-Election Analysis – Retirees Won the Day for the L-NP
Finding No. 3801 - By Gary Morgan and Michele Levine: October 29, 2004
POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS —
RETIREES WON THE DAY FOR THE L-NP
A special Morgan Poll on election weekend and the following weekend showed the L-NP (52.5%) ahead of the ALP (47.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. While the vote was similar among men (L-NP 52.5% cf ALP 47.5%) and women (L-NP 52% cf ALP 48%), analysis by age showed the ALP was ahead among those under 25 (ALP 53% cf L-NP 47%). The L-NP had a high 62% of the over 65 vote (ALP 38%).
Primary voting intention showed 46.5% of electors said they would or had voted for the L-NP, 37.5% for the ALP and 16% for minor parties — including 7.5% Greens, 1.5% Australian Democrats, 1.5% One Nation and 5.5% Family First, Minor Parties and Independent Candidates.
The table below shows these findings are very close to the actual election results as of the latest counting.1
Table 1. Latest Federal Election Result and the latest Morgan Poll
First Preference Results from the Australian Electoral Commission
Oct 7/8
Telephone
Morgan Poll
Oct 28, 2004 Oct 9/10 & 16/17, 2004
Sample Size (1,845)
% %
L-NP 46.72 (5.90) 46.5 (5)
ALP 37.63 37.5
Aust Dem 1.24
1.5
Aust Dem 7.18
7.5
One Nation 1.20
1.5
Ind/Other 6.03*
5.5*
Total 100 100
Two-Party Preferred Vote
L-NP 52.59 52.5
ALP 47.41 47.5
Total 100 100
.

