The pivotal 3 weeks of June 2019

[John Who]

Without a doubt, the most important month in the Minor rounds are the remaining matches to be played this June. Already there is 1 tick (a VERY lucky tick) after the win against the Dees at the start of this month. The true litmus test, however, will be the ensuing 3 matches against genuine contenders and possibly 3 of the best performed teams if tallying up all the games in the past 3 years. The matches in June to come:

1. Crows vs GWS (home) - 8th June
2. Crows vs Tigers (home) - 13th June
Bye round.
3. Crows vs Cats (away) - 28th June

A very formidable hat-trick of teams!

Will we gain form and momentum and win the majority of games in June?
Will we collapse in a heap and win none at all?

 

[AFC979810]

Must beat Tigers.

Geelong is a loss, GWS is a 50/50.

Winning 2 of the 3 would be a tremendous result.

 

[skam85]

Didn't you already make a thread on this

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-finals-run-before-the-bye.1217251/

 

[marty36]

Only time will tell, but going on how we went against Melbourne which was three days ago, it aint gonna be pretty

 

[Bovo]

Personally I foundJune was pivotal:
Successful brain surgery- tick
Skull put back together-tick
Rest and recovery- in progress
Watching the Crows turn it on for the rest of the year - gee - non negotiable. Must happen

The first half of the year was a tad unexpected so bring on a dominant second half where I can selfishly sit back and just enjoy footy again

 

[WetCrow1991]

Win these 3 and win the flag lol.

Absolutely no chance in Geelong, even when we've been clearly better than them we can't get a win there.

Against GWS and Richmond it is pivotal that Crouch is back.

 

[John Who]

Didn't you already make a thread on this

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-finals-run-before-the-bye.1217251/

Yes I did. Thanks for noticing!

Btw, this has a new poll. Interested in seeing if there are any revised thoughts.

 

[John Who]

Personally I foundJune was pivotal:
Successful brain surgery- tick
Skull put back together-tick
Rest and recovery- in progress
Watching the Crows turn it on for the rest of the year - gee - non negotiable. Must happen

The first half of the year was a tad unexpected so bring on a dominant second half where I can selfishly sit back and just enjoy footy again

Ok, this wasn’t the kind of response as expected!
Seems like the surgery was a success judging by the well-articulated post of yours!

Tip: if we do badly in the first half of any upcoming games, best you switch off the rest of the match and do something less....blood pressure-inducing..

 

[mattymac]

We need to switch back on. Before the Brisbane game we were looking pretty good then lost that by a point, coughed up a ten goal turn around against west coast and got out of jail against Melbourne.

With Gibbs tagging we probably win both the Brisbane and west coast games imo so hopefully that's a defensive weapon we continue to deploy.

A big issue with us is no individual is on fire. Normally even when you have a down year you have one or two who are having career years but we've got no one this year.

CEY perhaps but that's not going to impact our season when a 5th in line mid is having his best year. Keath has even fallen off from his early season form.

In fact our whole backline that resembled a bastion of stability prior to Brisbane has resembled more of an asylum since. Probably not helped by the fall in midfield defensive pressure.

We need some of our key players to step up and lead.

 

[thebirdman 24]

I have nightmares of us playing in Geelong. Always put money on the Cats for some easy money, no matter how well we are going.

 

[Bovo]

Ok, this wasn’t the kind of response as expected!
Seems like the surgery was a success judging by the well-articulated post of yours!

Tip: if we do badly in the first half of any upcoming games, best you switch off the rest of the match and do something less....blood pressure-inducing..

Apologies. Did not mean to derail thread. I think the next few weeks are very important for the Crows. I am all good on the poor performances. I have actually learnt to just enjoy footy for footy which I have found to be somewhat different to how I used to watch it. Funny how life changes your perspective on things

 

[jenny61_99]

Apologies. Did not mean to derail thread. I think the next few weeks are very important for the Crows. I am all good on the poor performances. I have actually learnt to just enjoy footy for footy which I have found to be somewhat different to how I used to watch it. Funny how life changes your perspective on things

Hope things are on the improve for you!

 

[Bovo]

Hope things are on the improve for you!

Yup by all accounts I am moving in the right direction

 

[jenny61_99]

Yup by all accounts I am moving in the right direction

Great news!

 

[John Who]

We need to switch back on. Before the Brisbane game we were looking pretty good then lost that by a point, coughed up a ten goal turn around against west coast and got out of jail against Melbourne.

With Gibbs tagging we probably win both the Brisbane and west coast games imo so hopefully that's a defensive weapon we continue to deploy.

A big issue with us is no individual is on fire. Normally even when you have a down year you have one or two who are having career years but we've got no one this year.

CEY perhaps but that's not going to impact our season when a 5th in line mid is having his best year. Keath has even fallen off from his early season form.

In fact our whole backline that resembled a bastion of stability prior to Brisbane has resembled more of an asylum since. Probably not helped by the fall in midfield defensive pressure.

We need some of our key players to step up and lead.

I think the 2 recent losses and the close win showed how important it is to have MCrouch and Sloane fit and firing, being arguably 2 of our best mids. Gibbs hopefully can build on his tagging game, and become an elite nullifier. I think CEY is building his game nicely and is probably our 5th best defender as of right now. Greenwood not far behind if he can just get some better fitness and more run into his game. We have a strong nucleus of mids, just need them to gel more.

 

[John Who]

Looking at stats from a probability perspective:

* Against GWS: https://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2019/12/adel-v-gws
We've won 3 out of the last 4 games at AO. The last loss being last year round 11 when we were heavily depleted with all the hammies.
Probability-wise, we're in this match with a strong chance.

* Against Tigers:
We've won 4 out of the last 4 games at AO. Only losing to the Tigers in Melbourne in recent years, but at home, we have a serious winning streak
against them. Despite some early season injury clouds back in 2018 (particularly Tex with the much talked about plantar fasciitis preseason) and questions over the preseason camp, we handled the pressure well against them in Round 2 last year.
Probability-wise, we're in this match with a very strong chance.

* Against Cats:
We've won 0 out of our last 3 games in Victoria. Some positive news was that we had played them at AO last year and we did have a winning result back then. Obviously this year's form is completely different from last year's, but at least it shows we can win against them and in recent times. Also the loss to the Cats at AO earlier this year was a hard-fought loss where it was pretty even until the last 5 minutes or so, and Cats ran away with a flurry of goals.
Probability-wise, it doesn't look very promising, but it might actually be closer to a 50/50 contest than what most pundits might think.

Can we pull a hat-trick?

 

[jackster83]

vs GWS: 45/55

vs Richmond: 60/40

vs Geelong: more chance of a thermo-nuclear war breaking out than us ever winning there again

 

[relapse]

I have nightmares of us playing in Geelong. Always put money on the Cats for some easy money, no matter how well we are going.

I made a fortune off that game in 2017 when we were favourites and Geelong were something ridiculous like $2.40.

We never win at Kardinia Park so it's always easy money.

 

[John Who]

I made a fortune off that game in 2017 when we were favourites and Geelong were something ridiculous like $2.40.

We never win at Kardinia Park so it's always easy money.

So how much did you lose on the punt, when last year we had won?

 

[Rotayjay]

This year is shaping as a slightly better version of 2018.

I'm hoping we will win 2, however I reckon we'll be quite disappointed by our performance in all three.

 

[John Who]

This year is shaping as a slightly better version of 2018.

I'm hoping we will win 2, however I reckon we'll be quite disappointed by our performance in all three.

I hope you're wrong regarding disappointments in all three!
I can't bear to go on and witness all the BF melts/rants if that's the case!!

 

[relapse]

So how much did you lose on the punt, when last year we had won?

I don't understand what you mean?

I am only an intermittent gambler and when you see things like Geelong being $2.40 at Kardinia Park against us you know that it's a golden opportunity to make some easy money.

 

[relapse]

This year is shaping as a slightly better version of 2018.

I'm hoping we will win 2, however I reckon we'll be quite disappointed by our performance in all three.

Yeah there has been a few canary in the coal mine moments this year that suggest that we aren't good enough.

I think we'll win 1 if we're lucky, but fear that we'll lose all three

 

[King Elvis]

Personally I foundJune was pivotal:
Successful brain surgery- tick
Skull put back together-tick
Rest and recovery- in progress
Watching the Crows turn it on for the rest of the year - gee - non negotiable. Must happen

The first half of the year was a tad unexpected so bring on a dominant second half where I can selfishly sit back and just enjoy footy again

Forget the footy - glad to hear you’re tracking well!!

 

[Rotayjay]

Yeah there has been a few canary in the coal mine moments this year that suggest that we aren't good enough.

I think we'll win 1 if we're lucky, but fear that we'll lose all three

We keep showing such good signs and then lapsing into Sando-style crap. It's tortuous to watch.