The pivotal 3 weeks of June 2019

How many games are we thinking the Crows can win out of the next 3 matches?

  • 3 - we can do this! Then we can steamroll all other incoming teams afterwards!

    Votes: 4 11.1%
  • 2 - very gettable, and can bring us some genuine confidence after the bye round.

    Votes: 9 25.0%
  • 1 - I don't feel so good about the next 3 games

    Votes: 17 47.2%
  • 0 - ain't gonna be pretty, I tell ya!

    Votes: 6 16.7%

  • Total voters
    36
  • Poll closed .
If we can come away with 2 wins from 3 we would have done very well.

We are not winning 2/3. I would be over the moon with just 1 win from this run. Three consecutive choke kicks at goal by the Dees saved our season. Kicking 1.8 in a quarter is disgraceful.

If Gawn ever realised the way to kick a goal is to aim to kick a point on the right side and his uneven balance would have sailed the kick through for a goal.

Would love you to be right by the way. 2 wins here sets up an assault for Top 4.
 
Apr 22, 2007
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I wish coaches would outright say that a certain effort by a player was unacceptable or piss weak. They alway back their players in now with love and support.

I love a filthy spray, imagine what Blight would have said to Jenkins!
 

Murray2503

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If we can come away with 2 wins from 3 we would have done very well.
I think we will lose all 3. We have really shown nothing all year. 3 games against top 5 sides doesn't bode well. Richmond game the only one I give us a 50/50 chance. Gws are the best side in it and if they turn up its gonna get ugly. Hope I'm wrong but just what I see. I have us down for 10 or 11 wins for the year and around 9th
 
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I think we will lose all 3. We have really shown nothing all year. 3 games against top 5 sides doesn't bode well. Richmond game the only one I give us a 50/50 chance. Gws are the best side in it and if they turn up its gonna get ugly. Hope I'm wrong but just what I see.

The timing of the Richmond game is unfortunate. I wish we either had it this week or on a 6-7 day break.

Youre right we could go 0-3. I actually had us pencilled in for 0-6 in this sequence of games.
 

VKCrow

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I wish coaches would outright say that a certain effort by a player was unacceptable or piss weak. They alway back their players in now with love and support.

I love a filthy spray, imagine what Blight would have said to Jenkins!
Yeah it would be nice (and entertaining) but you just can’t do that these days. Players would run to HR and file for bullying and be granted stress leave.
 

Tex200

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At a minimum we’ll have 11 wins. Whether we can build on that will depend on wins v:

GWS (H) Rich (H) Geel (A) Port (H) WCE (A) Coll (H)

So at best 16-6
At worst 11-11

I think 4 of those are winnable, with a 2-2 spilt seeing us play finals.

I think the last 3 weeks we’ve bumped into sides who have played season best footy, 2 of whom will challenge for top 4, and we’ve competed pretty well.

Overall I remain of the view that we’re in pretty good form, which I know most will disagree with.

Would help greatly if GWS were just slightly off the boil this week.
 

CrowBloke

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Looking at stats from a probability perspective:

* Against GWS: https://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2019/12/adel-v-gws
We've won 3 out of the last 4 games at AO. The last loss being last year round 11 when we were heavily depleted with all the hammies.
Probability-wise, we're in this match with a strong chance.

* Against Tigers:
We've won 4 out of the last 4 games at AO. Only losing to the Tigers in Melbourne in recent years, but at home, we have a serious winning streak
against them. Despite some early season injury clouds back in 2018 (particularly Tex with the much talked about plantar fasciitis preseason) and questions over the preseason camp, we handled the pressure well against them in Round 2 last year.
Probability-wise, we're in this match with a very strong chance.

* Against Cats:
We've won 0 out of our last 3 games in Victoria. Some positive news was that we had played them at AO last year and we did have a winning result back then. Obviously this year's form is completely different from last year's, but at least it shows we can win against them and in recent times. Also the loss to the Cats at AO earlier this year was a hard-fought loss where it was pretty even until the last 5 minutes or so, and Cats ran away with a flurry of goals.
Probability-wise, it doesn't look very promising, but it might actually be closer to a 50/50 contest than what most pundits might think.

Can we pull a hat-trick?
"If .... then ..." speculation can be interesting in here, sometimes even fun, but predictions based on previous results in previous seasons are dangerous, bordering on useless.
JW, mate, there are Superannuation commercials on TV with this disclaimer:
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results" or words to that effect.
It applies to your quoted post and with the Crows, especially, not even last week's game is any indicator as to what they'll do on Saturday. They're just too inconsistent to make any kind of accurate prediction. It would not surprise me if they ground out a dour, scrappy, tough win vs GWS, as they did with Freo. Likewise, it wouldn't surprise me if GWS belted us by 10 goals. There are some pointers:
--- in general, we seem to pay better at home (but not this year :drunk:)
--- the Cats are veryVERY hard to beat at the Cattery (17/20 WIN against us)
neither of which are very helpful.
Hard evidence about the dangers of predictions:
--- in Round 6 2017, we hammered Richmond by 76 points at AO.
It's hindsight, but that result was NO basis for predicting an 8-goal Richmond GF win.
 
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Mar 23, 2008
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One of the great Crows pictures
D5JIwofVUAAZSVO.jpg

FTFY :thumbsu:
 

Schulzycrow

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The dribble we dished up for the first half against the Demons wil have us 10 goals down against GWS. With the side we’ve picked for GWS...30/70 chance we lose. Run the ball through the corridor where our slow mids can’t keep up and one of our wingers doesn’t tackle and our backline panics and just bombs the ball out. Their forwards won’t miss as many shots as Melbourne did.
We will be lucky to beat the Tigers,
Geelong will smash us at the Cattery.
 
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The dribble we dished up for the first half against the Demons wil have us 10 goals down against GWS. With the side we’ve picked for GWS...30/70 chance we lose. Run the ball through the corridor where our slow mids can’t keep up and one of our wingers doesn’t tackle and our backline panics and just bombs the ball out. Their forwards won’t miss as many shots as Melbourne did.
We will be lucky to beat the Tigers,
Geelong will smash us at the Cattery.

Maybe the only thing I can think of that gives some semblance of hope is us playing a depleted Richmond, with Sloane and Gibbs off a decent break, there is potential for hope.

If GWS mentally turn up, it wont even be a contest. Our team is stuck in 2017 in an endless loop.

How fortunes have changed between now and when we played them in the finals in 2017.
 

John Who

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"If .... then ..." speculation can be interesting in here, sometimes even fun, but predictions based on previous results in previous seasons are dangerous, bordering on useless.
JW, mate, there are Superannuation commercials on TV with this disclaimer:
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results" or words to that effect.
It applies to your quoted post and with the Crows, especially, not even last week's game is any indicator as to what they'll do on Saturday. They're just too inconsistent to make any kind of accurate prediction. It would not surprise me if they ground out a dour, scrappy, tough win vs GWS, as they did with Freo. Likewise, it wouldn't surprise me if GWS belted us by 10 goals. There are some pointers:
--- in general, we seem to pay better at home (but not this year :drunk:)
--- the Cats are veryVERY hard to beat at the Cattery (17/20 WIN against us)
neither of which are very helpful.
Hard evidence about the dangers of predictions:
--- in Round 6 2017, we hammered Richmond by 76 points at AO.
It's hindsight, but that result was NO basis for predicting an 8-goal Richmond GF win.
Actually it’s not useless data with the recent years of games against the next 3 opponents. Sure you take into account current form and ladder standing, but any betting people would know, past performances are also helpful info to get a feel of a pattern of relative form.

Take Melbourne for instance, we are clearly better than them this year regarding form and ladder ranking. However, they have been our bogey team pretty much since Goodwin started to coach them, and more so in 2018. You could even argue the Dees were the team that derailed our season last year after that pitiful performance up in Alice Springs!

Anyway, all a bit of mindless fun with the recent form gauge.
 

Tex200

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Well we all said we'd be very happy if we won 2 out of 3.... we've already won 2 so are people happy and impressed.

Anyone give us a chance next week? Im still putting $50 on a geelong win.
No chance.

But our good form should make Geelongs odds pretty tasty
 

John Who

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Well we all said we'd be very happy if we won 2 out of 3.... we've already won 2 so are people happy and impressed.

Anyone give us a chance next week? Im still putting $50 on a geelong win.
I’m happy but not yet impressed. If we can somehow pull out a win against the Cats then it’s going to be hard to argue that we’re genuine contenders.

Still, 2/3 is already a damn good result and will bring us some confidence. Certainly a big contrast to last year leading towards the bye (horrid run of 4 straight losses!)
 
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