Opinion The Politics of Coronavirus

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Astro7

Official Halftime Oranges Man
Aug 6, 2017
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AFL Club
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This virus and politics are unquestionably entwined both globally and in Australia. I figured there was room for discussion on this subject, so it doesn't clog up the other virus thread. There's also not much footy to talk about and we're all in stay home mode or will be soon. This talk of 'lets not politicise the situation' is all very well at a governing level trying to cope with a rapidly unfolding and shifting national crises, while we get numbers and figures and totals thrown at us 24/7 on the media.
But politics is everywhere and in everything we do.

What about the future, how this unfolds, where do we end up? With all the businesses folded and jobs lost, supply chains affected, how will that recover quickly? What will the government look like? What will this country look like? What of other countries? Will there be a collapse? The global recession, another depression? Will the USA implode and what are the repercussions if it does? Will any nation take advantage of this vacuum and start something unimaginable?
How does footy come out of this? How much will it change? There's talk from the AFL that it won't be as we knew it?
It might not all be dystopian, there might be changes for the better in our capitalist-materialist system, there might be a positive re-evaluating of sorts..people demanding changes in their society. Manufacturing might return to this country and we become more self-contained and self-reliant. Globalism might recede as countries go into a type of isolationism to rebuild. Will this virus end soon or drag on, will we return to the same status quo or will things never be the same again?
Not being alarmist, my point is there are so many questions that arise from this unprecedented situation, about the present and the future, locally and on the global stage...unchartered waters, anything could happen..and a lot of it is driven by politics.

I'll kick it off with this article from the Guardian, which some view as a 'leftie' journal (see, it's already politicised).
FWIW, Clearly am no expert on anything, but am interested in politics, the machinations of superpowers and whatever the 'truth' is? I read ABC, SBS, Reuters, Guardian, CNN, BBC, The Washington Post, Al Jezeera etc, am not a leftie, or a rightie, just look for balance, for some insight and truth. We all have our opinions on this crises, and how it will unfold, what are yours? Hopefully we can get an informative discussion going that's not all doom+gloom or wildly tinfoil-hat speculative...(although that's always fun!)

The Guardian - article by Katharine Murphy.

"I wonder what Australia and the world will look like five years from now, because only one thing is certain: this crisis will put the world on a different axis.
The global financial crisis, which was the biggest global economic shock since the Depression, triggered a fundamental realignment. Nativism and protectionism resurfaced. Cheap jack populists expressed fatigue with experts. Americans, God help them, chose Donald Trump as their president. The far right resurfaced in parts of Europe. Britain retreated from Europe after a convulsion that paralysed one of the greatest democracies in the world for several years.

Current indications suggest this pandemic will inflict a more substantial economic shock than the GFC, because our capacity to pump prime domestic economies is curtailed. In the Depression, the government could pay people to go out and build roads and bridges. In the GFC, the government could give people money in the certainty that they would hit the shops and spend for Australia. But in this event, stimulatory measures have to be balanced against public health risks, unless you are a leader like Trump who makes a virtue of endangering his own citizens.

The thought exercise I’m embarking on this weekend is necessary, but mildly mind-blowing – what is the post-pandemic outlook for democratic governments?
Driven by the pro-market economic orthodoxy that existed pre-GFC, liberal democracies have spent decades shrinking governments. As governments have ceded power, many societies have also lost faith in the political class – in Australia, particularly over the past decade. The share of the vote going to the major parties has declined. Trust is low. Voters are disillusioned.

Yet it has been striking in this crisis how citizens in this country have looked to government as a deeply ingrained reflex. There is a hardwired collective expectation that government will provide a safety net during the economic shock, and also to tell people in clear terms what they should do to minimise the risks of infection.
So even though we are disillusioned, there appears to be a durable expectation that government will lead, and there is fury if leadership doesn’t materialise.

Also striking over the past 10 days has been the rolling dialogue within the Australian federation. In places like the United Kingdom or New Zealand, national governments just assert that various things will happen, and they happen. In Australia, responsibilities are divided, so the various tiers of government in this countries are forced to engage in an old-fashioned policy deliberation. They are forced to consider, in full public view, the health response and the economic response; as Morrison is fond of putting this exercise, weighing lives and livelihoods.

I also read in some publications now is not the time for Labor to be questioning government decision making, because apparently that’s playing politics. I mean, how bloody ridiculous. We all need to be questioning every decision as constructively as possible rather than lapsing into placid groupthink. The opposition, the media, all citizens.

Now is the time for everybody in this nation to care about one another sufficiently to show up and play our respective roles in a democracy, particularly at a time when parliament is suspended, and civil liberties are being curtailed in the service of of saving lives.

Will governments prove their worth by managing this crisis to the best of their ability, or will they fail their citizens? I don’t know the answer, but I know a lot hangs on it; lives, livelihoods, and the future of liberal democracy.
 
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I suspect the ideas of border controls and stricter immigration will suddenly are not considered so 'extreme' viewpoints.

Nationalism will probably get a boost (controversial view) as countries focus internally to get themselves back into the semblence of a functioning economy. Foreign aid will take a hit.

In global politics China will walk away unscathed.
 
A lot of what I have been doing for work the past week has been related to this area.

I shall post at greater length later on in regard to this, but essentially the outlook is unfortunately nowhere near as rosy as Murphy's article presents.
  • The downturn will be bleaker than anything anyone under the age of 90 has lived through.
  • An increased number of countries around the world will be left as failed states.
  • The trend of increasing populism over the past decade will go into overdrive.
  • Measures implemented for outbreak containment will be used to further restrict human rights.
  • Global supply chains and manufacturing will undergo a complete reorganisation.
  • The recovery will bring forward many trends that were already causing significant disruption to economies - there will be a substantial number of people who will be left behind with very few options.
  • The aftermath will leave the world with the greatest amount of disparity in human history.
 

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A lot of what I have been doing for work the past week has been related to this area.

I shall post at greater length later on in regard to this, but essentially the outlook is unfortunately nowhere near as rosy as Murphy's article presents.
  • The downturn will be bleaker than anything anyone under the age of 90 has lived through.
  • An increased number of countries around the world will be left as failed states.
  • The trend of increasing populism over the past decade will go into overdrive.
  • Measures implemented for outbreak containment will be used to further restrict human rights.
  • Global supply chains and manufacturing will undergo a complete reorganisation.
  • The recovery will bring forward many trends that were already causing significant disruption to economies - there will be a substantial number of people who will be left behind with very few options.
  • The aftermath will leave the world with the greatest amount of disparity in human history.
Look forward to that Dylan. There are other articles surfacing from 'reputable' sources about the future and potential outcomes, a re-jigging of superpowers etc, mostly dystopian, as though we aren't already in a dystopian world?
 
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I hope for a few positive things:
-There will be a load of data on productivity on working from home. I hope this encourages a more flexible workforce, reduces the need for commuting with significant knock on effects to environment, work/life balance (less time commuting = more leisure/family time).
-A shift in outlook on what is and isn't important in terms of human consumption (less stuff hopefully)
-From a selfish perspective, a change in science funding. The public are suddenly looking to scientists to develop a cure, and guess what? Most of us are overseas because the funding situation in Australia is ****ed. You can't dig s**t out of the ground in a pandemic, but you can sure as hell make a lot of money on scientific innovation. Australia won't see that, it'll all be Europe and the US, because Australia funds things that will soon be obsolete like coal mining.

I listened to an interesting podcast about the potential net positive of the pandemic on health because of a reduction in pollution, I hope it reignites the renewable debate, particularly since there will be a heap of data on pollution reduction and public health:
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/

The great thing I see in all this is the global scientific and medical efforts to rapidly innovate. We're capable of great leaps, we're just held back by a tendency to cling to old ideas and old technology.

Politically, investment in new technology (health and medical research, which is never on the political agenda but will be in a big way now, and things like renewable energy) is the way forward. I can see them buckling down though.
 
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I hope for a few positive things:
-There will be a load of data on productivity on working from home. I hope this encourages a more flexible workforce, reduces the need for commuting with significant knock on effects to environment, work/life balance (less time commuting = more leisure/family time).
-A shift in outlook on what is and isn't important in terms of human consumption (less stuff hopefully)
-From a selfish perspective, a change in science funding. The public are suddenly looking to scientists to develop a cure, and guess what? Most of us are overseas because the funding situation in Australia is f’ed. You can't dig s**t out of the ground in a pandemic, but you can sure as hell make a lot of money on scientific innovation. Australia won't see that, it'll all be Europe and the US, because Australia funds things that will soon be obsolete like coal mining.

I listened to an interesting podcast about the potential net positive of the pandemic on health because of a reduction in pollution, I hope it reignites the renewable debate, particularly since there will be a heap of data on pollution reduction and public health:
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/

The great thing I see in all this is the global scientific and medical efforts to rapidly innovate. We're capable of great leaps, we're just held back by a tendency to cling to old ideas and old technology.

Politically, investment in new technology (health and medical research, which is never on the political agenda but will be in a big way now, and things like renewable energy) is the way forward. I can see them buckling down though.
You raised some good points re: the effect on climate and pollution (we've seen that already in China and L.A); in human consumption and materialism=capitalism (it's like the world needs the brakes put on and a change of mindset, rampant capitalism is shaping up to be a ticket to hell). The Australian brain-drain has been happening for a long time through successive govnmnts, much to the detriment of our national or societal wealth! Reduced to the lowest common denominator of digging dirt up and selling it mainly to the Chinese...all our eggs in one basket!

And there are just so many questions and contradictions raised by this govnmnt of ours -doesn't matter whether it's Liberal or Labor-it's the current govnmnt in power. A govnmnt that has stripped funding from so many areas (eg-Centrelink and the public service) and persisted in backing many questionable projects and corporations (eg- Adani coal, Murray-Darling water buyback, Chinese ownership of water etc), the fire crises and this virus has now exposed the govnmnt on many fronts and they've been forced to eat humble pie...even the half-baked NBN, now everyone is sitting at home on the internet and the NBN is being tested to its limits.
Everything they have put in place is being tested to it's limits now. Admittedly any govnmnt will be tested to it's limits in these times, but the smoke and mirrors of parliament and politicking has been stripped away, they have nowhere to hide. The parliament shutdown is almost like they've gone into hiding. That's never happened in our history before. This excerpt from the article posted below -

"The COVID 19 pandemic has exposed the utter failure of neoliberalism. Whether it is the utter obsession with getting the peasants back to work, up to and including sacrificing lives to the market gods, or the refusal to lock down countries because of freedom, this philosophy is exposed. Even Morrison said that his measures to stimulate the economy, more than half of which were for the banks, should not go so far as to ‘bury the budget for a decade’. He is still obsessed with his blessed budget surplus. Neoliberalism is thus exposed as a fair-weather philosophy. When everything is fine and the economy (the stock market) is doing well, it and its advocates are fine. But when a crisis hits and the government is actually required to, you know, do something, they are utterly out of their depth...."
"
I'm guessing the tendency to cling to old ideas and technology is partially an economic/budget/finance thing with any govnmnt..but we do appear to settle into a comfortable groove or mindset as a society (and govnmnt) and don't want to create waves or rock the boat, or stretch our imagination. Which brings me to another area heavily hit by both the govnmnt and the virus - the Arts! (a foul and dubious word to some). But the arts, culture and entertainment has taken a big hit. The indigenous population, how will they fare during the virus? The next article I post won't be about the govnmnt, I'll steer away from that so as not to be seen as govnmnt-bashing? But these are the times we live in and these are the cards we're dealt.
 
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The ability of Centrelink to be able to handle the huge surge and increasing unemployed is a major concern.
Every day there are new figures released. Myers will shutdown, releasing 10,000 staff. Many other large retailers to follow. The dole queues swell, as does the financial pressure on the govnmnt.

Now 600 nurses have been released -
The NSW Nurses and Midwives’ Association (NSWNMA) has heard more than 600 private hospital nurses have been stood down over the past 24 hours, and hundreds more could follow, all casualties of the Federal Government’s bungled announcement regarding non-urgent elective surgery.
“We’ve now got a situation where more than 600 nurses are being forced to take accrued leave, or are scrambling to find another job elsewhere, before needing to join the queue for benefits,” Mr Holmes said.

Also, Childcare centres and staff could take a hit soon...
"Early childhood education services can spend up to 80% of their revenue on staff and rent. This means services across 16,000 centres may need to stand down their workforce of 200,000 staff, and potentially dismiss casual staff, if they are forced to close..."

There is also the issue of losing teachers during and after the virus...will the virus impact cause a disenchantment for teachers, with less likely to return and the same for childcare..how will the schools and childcare centres look post virus...?
"In 2019, we estimated the childhood workforce would be short of 29,000 teachers by 2023. With one in five educators reporting they wish to leave the profession in the next 12 months, the effects of workers stepping away from the early childhood workforce due to centre closures could be dramatic.
Part and full time teachers are likely to remain employed during any school closure, supporting children remotely. But schools are less likely to need casual teachers, which make up at least 12% of the workforce according to survey data..."
"Casual staff in schools that have already closed may be feeling the pinch, and schools may also have less need for casual teachers if many students are staying home..."
"An estimated 25-50% of teachers are leaving the profession at five years. If casual teachers are not paid to be in class, they may be prompted to leave the profession sooner..."
 
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You raised some good points re: the effect on climate and pollution (we've seen that already in China and L.A); in human consumption and materialism=capitalism (it's like the world needs the brakes put on and a change of mindset, rampant capitalism is shaping up to be a ticket to hell). The Australian brain-drain has been happening for a long time through successive govnmnts, much to the detriment of our national or societal wealth! Reduced to the lowest common denominator of digging dirt up and selling it mainly to the Chinese...all our eggs in one basket!

And there are just so many questions and contradictions raised by this govnmnt of ours -doesn't matter whether it's Liberal or Labor-it's the current govnmnt in power. A govnmnt that has stripped funding from so many areas (eg-Centrelink and the public service) and persisted in backing many questionable projects and corporations (eg- Adani coal, Murray-Darling water buyback, Chinese ownership of water etc), the fire crises and this virus has now exposed the govnmnt on many fronts and they've been forced to eat humble pie...even the half-baked NBN, now everyone is sitting at home on the internet and the NBN is being tested to its limits.
Everything they have put in place is being tested to it's limits now. Admittedly any govnmnt will be tested to it's limits in these times, but the smoke and mirrors of parliament and politicking has been stripped away, they have nowhere to hide. The parliament shutdown is almost like they've gone into hiding. That's never happened in our history before. This excerpt from the article posted below -

"The COVID 19 pandemic has exposed the utter failure of neoliberalism. Whether it is the utter obsession with getting the peasants back to work, up to and including sacrificing lives to the market gods, or the refusal to lock down countries because of freedom, this philosophy is exposed. Even Morrison said that his measures to stimulate the economy, more than half of which were for the banks, should not go so far as to ‘bury the budget for a decade’. He is still obsessed with his blessed budget surplus. Neoliberalism is thus exposed as a fair-weather philosophy. When everything is fine and the economy (the stock market) is doing well, it and its advocates are fine. But when a crisis hits and the government is actually required to, you know, do something, they are utterly out of their depth...."
"
I'm guessing the tendency to cling to old ideas and technology is partially an economic/budget/finance thing with any govnmnt..but we do appear to settle into a comfortable groove or mindset as a society (and govnmnt) and don't want to create waves or rock the boat, or stretch our imagination. Which brings me to another area heavily hit by both the govnmnt and the virus - the Arts! (a foul and dubious word to some). But the arts, culture and entertainment has taken a big hit. The indigenous population, how will they fare during the virus? The next article I post won't be about the govnmnt, I'll steer away from that so as not to be seen as govnmnt-bashing? But these are the times we live in and these are the cards we're dealt.

Globalism is another that will take a big hit.

I wonder if Italy is regretting its close economic and travel ties to China?
 
*EFFECT - Think when coronavirus is over Australia's economy will snap back into place? Good luck with that..

The global economy is only as strong as the weakest link. And right now the US, led by Donald Trump, is in a pitiful state. Until it is safe to return to normal business – and crucially until we feel safe – we will not see much recovery. But importantly, until we can say the same about other major nations, we will not see the global economy recover.
It may feel as though Trump’s incompetence does not affect us but it very much does.
 
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You raised some good points re: the effect on climate and pollution (we've seen that already in China and L.A); in human consumption and materialism=capitalism (it's like the world needs the brakes put on and a change of mindset, rampant capitalism is shaping up to be a ticket to hell). The Australian brain-drain has been happening for a long time through successive govnmnts, much to the detriment of our national or societal wealth! Reduced to the lowest common denominator of digging dirt up and selling it mainly to the Chinese...all our eggs in one basket!

And there are just so many questions and contradictions raised by this govnmnt of ours -doesn't matter whether it's Liberal or Labor-it's the current govnmnt in power. A govnmnt that has stripped funding from so many areas (eg-Centrelink and the public service) and persisted in backing many questionable projects and corporations (eg- Adani coal, Murray-Darling water buyback, Chinese ownership of water etc), the fire crises and this virus has now exposed the govnmnt on many fronts and they've been forced to eat humble pie...even the half-baked NBN, now everyone is sitting at home on the internet and the NBN is being tested to its limits.
Everything they have put in place is being tested to it's limits now. Admittedly any govnmnt will be tested to it's limits in these times, but the smoke and mirrors of parliament and politicking has been stripped away, they have nowhere to hide. The parliament shutdown is almost like they've gone into hiding. That's never happened in our history before. This excerpt from the article posted below -

"The COVID 19 pandemic has exposed the utter failure of neoliberalism. Whether it is the utter obsession with getting the peasants back to work, up to and including sacrificing lives to the market gods, or the refusal to lock down countries because of freedom, this philosophy is exposed. Even Morrison said that his measures to stimulate the economy, more than half of which were for the banks, should not go so far as to ‘bury the budget for a decade’. He is still obsessed with his blessed budget surplus. Neoliberalism is thus exposed as a fair-weather philosophy. When everything is fine and the economy (the stock market) is doing well, it and its advocates are fine. But when a crisis hits and the government is actually required to, you know, do something, they are utterly out of their depth...."
"
I'm guessing the tendency to cling to old ideas and technology is partially an economic/budget/finance thing with any govnmnt..but we do appear to settle into a comfortable groove or mindset as a society (and govnmnt) and don't want to create waves or rock the boat, or stretch our imagination. Which brings me to another area heavily hit by both the govnmnt and the virus - the Arts! (a foul and dubious word to some). But the arts, culture and entertainment has taken a big hit. The indigenous population, how will they fare during the virus? The next article I post won't be about the govnmnt, I'll steer away from that so as not to be seen as govnmnt-bashing? But these are the times we live in and these are the cards we're dealt.
The talk about how it exposes neoliberalism is an interesting one. We've been growth mindset and business as usual for a long time. That's all been channelled into a limited, but so far very profitable set of industries, when we've got far more that we can exploit and diversify with. Maybe the current climate will necessitate that diversification.

The thing I find weird in all of this is that the Coalition opposition was hugely critical of Wayne Swan's stimulus package during the GFC which essentially saved the Australian economy and is recognised around the world as an prudent economic move that limited the damage to Australia and even had Swan lauded as the world's greatest treasurer in 2011, yet the Libs seem to consistently attack Labor's economic management. Yet, in the face of a global economic downturn right now, ScoMo and team are essentially doing the same thing.
Bloody hypocrites.
 
Globalism is another that will take a big hit.

I wonder if Italy is regretting its close economic and travel ties to China?
For sure, Globalism had some big problems (understatement)-culture clash being one of them, and could certainly use a realignment. Just need to realign those Corporate puppeteers behind it all. Right now Australia is having a problem in this crises with Corporate raiders poaching failed businesses or those on their knees!
(another side effect of the virus vacuum!)
Wasn't aware of Italy's ties to China, wouldn't normally associate the two, but China is into everything with it's belt+road strategy.
Iran is definitely regretting it's ties with China...its epidemic set off by the circular movement of Chinese construction workers in Iran!? There's mention in the press that the civil unrest caused by the virus might dethrone the supreme leader.
 
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For sure, Globalism had some problems and could use a realignment.
Wasn't aware of Italy's ties to China, wouldn't normally associate the two, but China is into everything via 'belt+road'.
Iran is definitely regretting it's ties with China...its epidemic set off by the circular movement of Chinese construction workers in Iran!?

Yep one of Italy's biggest issues was that as part of their trade agreement they had much more open travel between Italy and China.

Yeah.
 
Article states experts in the field knew this was coming one day but governments around the world weren't interested in funding research that could have had a vaccine sitting on the shelf.
When you have govt's de funding science and research to provide tax cuts and spend billions to build submarines which will be obsolete before they arrive and when you have politicians accusing scientists of falsifying facts because they are telling them things they don't want to hear this is the end result.
 
Article states experts in the field knew this was coming one day but governments around the world weren't interested in funding research that could have had a vaccine sitting on the shelf.
When you have govt's de funding science and research to provide tax cuts and spend billions to build submarines which will be obsolete before they arrive and when you have politicians accusing scientists of falsifying facts because they are telling them things they don't want to hear this is the end result.
Yes, why plan for the future? Vision seems to only apply to the next election strategy.
It's odd, almost common knowledge about those subs, the Chinese must be laughing...they've probably hacked all the classified info anyway? They're currently out there off our NW waters mapping submarine routes..
 
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I think the AFL will see 3 days of decrease of the virus and think "yep we'll be back out there very soon"

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app
The footballers taking big hits to their salary weren't happy (50%?), but conceded, had to...
They do live in a bit of a bubble, everything provided for them..no doubt had nice lifestyles set up,
banking on that chunky income then boom!...just like everyone else, have to pull that belt in and adjust.
 
*EFFECT- The Covid-19 pandemic is now giving Russian authorities an opportunity to test new powers and technology, and the country's privacy and free-speech advocates worry the government is building sweeping new surveillance capabilities...
 
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