List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

rogiebear93

Premiership Player
May 17, 2017
4,043
7,275
AFL Club
Hawthorn
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-06-06/injury-ladder-whos-hit-hardest-whos-defying-the-odds

Interesting table, Champion Data rating the Hawks as having the 4th worst injury list by actual impact. Considering how much Champion Data underrate Tom Mitchell, I'd say we should probably be worse off.

Either way, it's a good juxtaposition between Richmond and Hawthorn. Richmond have managed to play at a higher level (but also a lower level, at times) than the Hawks because they are more confident in their game plan and their structures.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Flag08

Club Legend
Feb 18, 2008
2,746
4,473
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Our last 3 top ten picks were Ellis, Dowler and Thorp.


Our last 3 1st rounders got us jom, Mitchell and Wingard.
Which shows what? That no matter how bad our recruiting was we still won flags like they were going out of style? Ridiculous comparison. How about you go back a bit further and include all the picks which actually formed the core of the side.
Or let’s keep getting pick 60 in the draft and filling our side with talentless plodders.
 

Back Pocket Rocket

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2005
2,663
1,078
Twolves, Burnley, Canberra Raiders
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Burnley
Our last 3 top ten picks were Ellis, Dowler and Thorp.


Our last 3 1st rounders got us jom, Mitchell and Wingard.
Recruiting is much more exact then 10-15 years ago. So much more goes on their personality then back then. Ellis would of been a good pick but had a grandpa body. Thorp was really talented but a egotystic mental pygmy and dowler lost all confidence after the crash.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
67,740
27,354
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
Which shows what? That no matter how bad our recruiting was we still won flags like they were going out of style? Ridiculous comparison. How about you go back a bit further and include all the picks which actually formed the core of the side.
Or let’s keep getting pick 60 in the draft and filling our side with talentless plodders.
Many of those picks which formed the core were traded for too. Best example Hodge. When we traded for number one, we also missed the grand final by a couple of kicks.

Our best example of priority picks is Franklin and Roughead. We traded for the Lewis pick. Some other pps not so great Ellis dowler not Selwood Pendleton’s
 

tige19

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 13, 2003
18,791
18,067
Mar-a-lago
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
NUFC, Orlando, Packers, Trump
We can't bottom out, supporters don't turn up when we're competitive let alone when we're rubbish. Not a good time to be a hawk tragic
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

burner1

Club Legend
Nov 3, 2005
1,456
405
victoria
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
hawks
We need a massive injection of talent across the whole list. Will take more than one draft.

In 2-3 years our list looks even worse with retirements of BB, Stratton, Smith, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Frawley.

We might as will go hard at draft now while we have some semblance of senior bodies and structure to develop the kids - as if we do it in 3 years time we could be in for some massive pain.

There’s the endless bottoming out of clubs such as Carlton which destroys culture and development - what we need is a 2-3 year drop to get in the talent we need, before begininng to rise again.
 

eldorado

Previously eldorado
Oct 18, 2003
11,256
20,276
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Athletic Bilbao
I agree we need to start using first round draft picks.

I disagree that finishing low as possible for three or four years will do any good, except in creating a loser culture. It's not as if Pick 6 will be quantifiably better than Pick 10, we sometimetime get seduced by the metaphorical symbolism of numbers i.e. Pick 6 WILL be twice as good as pick 12...it doesn't work that way

You play your best team, try to win each week, work out who is up for it and who isn't, and trade and draft for needs, same as always.
 

PhatHQ

Club Legend
Sep 26, 2015
2,717
2,842
Newcastle
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Our bottoming our only needs to be this season & trade into the draft.
Securing a couple of FA in a Cogs or even a Stephen Hill while getting trade value for Smith is making more sense. Not necessarily happening that way but you get my drift.
We could “bottom out” & get 2 top 10 picks, a father son “gun” & a couple of FA & we are back in business.

From there it could be an “as required” list management to keep trading away picks or go to the draft.

We absolutely need a big injection of top end & young talent or in 5 years time we will still be floundering in the bottom 8 scratching our heads as to what went wrong & whoever the coach is will be all “Brendan Bolton” with nowhere to go.
 

PhatHQ

Club Legend
Sep 26, 2015
2,717
2,842
Newcastle
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I agree we need to start using first round draft picks.

I disagree that finishing low as possible for three or four years will do any good, except in creating a loser culture. It's not as if Pick 6 will be quantifiably better than Pick 10, we sometimetime get seduced by the metaphorical symbolism of numbers i.e. Pick 6 WILL be twice as good as pick 12...it doesn't work that way

You play your best team, try to win each week, work out who is up for it and who isn't, and trade and draft for needs, same as always.
Anderson, Clark & Maginnis are realistic & have more security behind them as a known quantity IMO.

There are only a few must haves imn a draft & we should absolutely be targeting 2 of them whoever Hawthorn consider that to be along with expecting to get Finn & a late pick or 2.
We have some dead wood on the list as well as a couple of valuable pieces to get it done.
Our list isn’t dire but it needs a shake up!
Mitchell, Jags, Shiels, Worpel, Sicily, Hardwick, Impey, Wingard, Scrimshaw, Scully are the key components I would consider to be driving the club for the future. That’s 10 key pieces.
Add 2 FA ( for arguments sake Cogs & Hill) with a 5 year projection
2-3 top end draft selections (as listed above) & the top ent talent is rather significant.
We have the complimentary guys to fill the list & I have no doubt that they to will be juggled to suit.

As I have mentioned before, if there was ever a year to go hard on a rebuild it’s this season as we have the capacity to go hard at the draft, Trade for the draft & secure FA talent.

I honestly don’t se the same opportunity coming any time soon if we sit back while our “value” pieces devalue.
 

Hawkers Heroes

Senior List
Jul 28, 2009
194
162
In a House
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Doesn't concern me one bit if we bottom out as long as the 22 selected give 100% effort.
I will continue to pay my membership in supporting this club.
 

SuperSic

Senior List
Oct 16, 2018
249
606
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I would turn up to watch young talent having a crack. I’m less inclined to watch automatons playing chip chip bomb.
You just revealed the essence of our problems right now and contradicted your own theory.

The problem at the moment is gameplan and coaching, not our list. Our list is currently underperforming due to the gameplan, which is the exact opposite of what we have always been in the past under Clarko.

How is bringing in kids going to fix this issue? It will just compound it more. The biggest change we need at the moment needs to come from the coaches box.

Our list is not as bad as some seem to think.
 

BJK#5

Premiership Player
Aug 9, 2017
3,714
11,309
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Bit of a bump here. But needs to happen. Cant let 1-2 wins sugar coat our deficiencies
Too late, we have committed to this rebuild.

Half hearting it and just bailing now will kill our list.

We have guys grouped around that 24-29 range that are too good for us to bottom out. We can't move them on because we will not get value for them and it will kill the culture at the club. We went all in on a rebuild on the run and need to see this through.

Not to mention people seem to be blinded by high draft picks and think it will fix everything. How is that working out for Carlton? Or even Melbourne?
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
67,740
27,354
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
Too late, we have committed to this rebuild.

Half hearting it and just bailing now will kill our list.

We have guys grouped around that 24-29 range that are too good for us to bottom out. We can't move them on because we will not get value for them and it will kill the culture at the club. We went all in on a rebuild on the run and need to see this through.

Not to mention people seem to be blinded by high draft picks and think it will fix everything. How is that working out for Carlton? Or even Melbourne?
Most people are more encouraged by the geelong model. its not so much high draft picks as getting group of 4-6 in in one draft. In truth 4-5 retirements already look likely
 

Bugs1977

Club Legend
May 3, 2018
1,561
3,832
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Detroit Pistons
Our last 3 top ten picks were Ellis, Dowler and Thorp.


Our last 3 1st rounders got us jom, Mitchell and Wingard.
The only thing that picking Ellis, Dowler and Thorpe proved was that you ALWAYS pick the the best player available... not by positional need. It’s easy to look at the past and making judgements and without those mistakes we don’t learn from them. If for whatever reason we did the smart thing and picked Joel Selwood then the butterfly effect would state that we don’t end up picking Cyril Rioli and maybe not even win 4 premierships.

I understand what your trying to say about high picks not being the be all end all but if those picks are used correctly they can definitely change the fortunes of your club whether it by choosing the right kid or nailing a trade.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
67,740
27,354
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
The only thing that picking Ellis, Dowler and Thorpe proved was that you ALWAYS pick the the best player available... not by positional need. It’s easy to look at the past and making judgements and without those mistakes we don’t learn from them. If for whatever reason we did the smart thing and picked Joel Selwood then the butterfly effect would state that we don’t end up picking Cyril Rioli and maybe not even win 4 premierships.

I understand what your trying to say about high picks not being the be all end all but if those picks are used correctly they can definitely change the fortunes of your club whether it by choosing the right kid or nailing a trade.
That was the (smarter than everyone in his own mind) Pelchin era
 

Lotus

Premium Platinum
Aug 6, 2016
1,288
3,071
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I know this is silly but just a suggestion, what if we change the thread title by removing the word "needing" please?

When I read the thread title it feels like a system based or by design an orchestration to finish as low as possible a.k.a tanking. I don't know maybe I'm just overthink it.
 
Top Bottom