List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

Furn2

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Which shows what? That no matter how bad our recruiting was we still won flags like they were going out of style? Ridiculous comparison. How about you go back a bit further and include all the picks which actually formed the core of the side.
Or let’s keep getting pick 60 in the draft and filling our side with talentless plodders.
Go back and do it, we got 6 good players from about 20 top 25 picks from 2000 to 2007.

Thats a pretty good strike rate and theirs no priority picks now so thats another 2 bottom 4 years to get the same picks from that era.

Bottoming out has a terrible success rate.
 

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Bugs1977

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I know this is silly but just a suggestion, what if we change the thread title by removing the word "needing" please?

When I read the thread title it feels like a system based or by design an orchestration to finish as low as possible a.k.a tanking. I don't know maybe I'm just overthink it.
Bottoming out wouldn’t be the worse thing we can do BUT I will stress just for this season only. We knew going into this season when Tom got hurt that we’d be pushing s**t up hill. We’ve amicably tried to fight on without him but there will come a point I’d say after the Swans game next week if we don’t win that it will be discussed to play some more youngsters. Some might call that tanking but I don’t because I think even though we might not win games on the scoreboard we’d quite essentially be winning in developing say a CJ, Jones or Ross.
 
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Bugs1977

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Dees Saints Blues are full of years and years of top picks from bottoming out
This is true but none of those teams have the quality players we have that could be combined with adding a couple of youngsters from this years draft. It’s probably too late to get a top 2 pick now but 1 season of getting a top 5 pick isn’t a death sentence.

It’s ridiculous how many some of our own fans can’t see that. The Mitchell injury has basically handcuffed us this season in making any push towards and in September. Clarko has / is trying everything he can do to plug a sinking ship but even the great one is running out of fingers and toes to stop us going under.

The bottoming out I envisage for this season if you want to call it that will aid us in getting top 5 pick (hopefully a gun kid that slides) along with (FS) Finn Magginness and with multiple additions (Coniglio, Patton, Greenwood etc) also combined with the impending return of Mitchell.

Yeah so it’s not so much a 1 season bottoming out but more so a tapping out of a season where nothing has gone right for us on the injury front. The call will also be made to give any retiring veterans a fair well game too if / when the season spirals. As Hawthorn fans we’ve all been so spoiled for so long that we’re just not used to being in this position but even the best clubs go thorough these periods. The question I put forward is are we smart enough to park our ego and realise it? Play the kids FFS!
 
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sohsam

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This is true but none of those teams have the quality players we have that could be combined with adding a couple of youngsters from this years draft. It’s probably too late to get a top 2 pick now but 1 season of getting a top 5 pick isn’t a death sentence.

It’s ridiculous how many some of our own fans can’t see that. The Mitchell injury has basically handcuffed us this season in making any push towards and in September. Clarko has / is trying everything he can do to plug a sinking ship but even the great one is running out of fingers and toes to stop us going under.

The bottoming out I envisage for this season if you want to call it that will aid us in getting top 5 pick (hopefully a gun kid that slides) along with (FS) Finn Magginness and with multiple additions (Coniglio, Patton, Greenwood etc) also combined with the impending return of Mitchell.

Yeah so it’s not so much a 1 season bottoming out but more so a tapping out of a season where nothing has gone right for us on the injury front. The call will also be made to give any retiring veterans a fair well game too if / when the season spirals. As Hawthorn fans we’ve all been so spoiled for so long that we’re just not used to being in this position but even the best clubs go thorough these periods. The question I put forward is are we smart enough to park our ego and realise it? Play the kids FFS!
That is something for the club to decide at year end but most people acknowledge we are more than a pick 5 in draft away from being premiership threat. Whether we turn pick 5 into 3 top 20 by exchanging or bringing known quantities from other clubs is to be seen or whether we go to draft and bring a young kid. The issue with bringing a young kid is takes 2-3 year to mature and by that time guys like Bruest/Gunston/Stratton might not be with us or their best past it (although from this year some might say that has already happened). We may not be able to get Anderson as possible No 1 but magginness would be a good get, not even in round 2 discussions currently. The club has been doing things quite differently last few years. Will be interesting to watch.
 

Flag08

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Go back and do it, we got 6 good players from about 20 top 25 picks from 2000 to 2007.

Thats a pretty good strike rate and theirs no priority picks now so thats another 2 bottom 4 years to get the same picks from that era.

Bottoming out has a terrible success rate.
I’m not talking about about bottoming out. I’m talking about using first and second round picks on talented kids. We lost 3 talented kids for a bit part player last draft. And now we have stuff all young talent. Go figure.
 

Luv_our_club

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Freo are ahead of us in their rebuild. Sad to say. They have gone hard at the draft, and also they were lucky with getting a top 3 pick from the Suns. They have sucked too, really bottomed out.

Comparatively, they went through the pain and are looking good now.
 

Flukey!

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I can't see where we will get improvement from but I can with some of the other teams around us.
We have Tom Mitchell to come back next year but that's it.
And maybe another mature aged player comes in.
But there is not much to be optimistic about.
 

Furn2

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I’m not talking about about bottoming out. I’m talking about using first and second round picks on talented kids. We lost 3 talented kids for a bit part player last draft. And now we have stuff all young talent. Go figure.
If you're talking Wingard as a bit part player, then you are lost.

Talented kids grow on trees, proven class players don't.

Remember when bastinac, Harper and Arron Black were 3 talented youngsters we gave up for bit part players in Burgoyne and Gibson?
 

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Pessimistic

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I can't see where we will get improvement from but I can with some of the other teams around us.
We have Tom Mitchell to come back next year but that's it.
And maybe another mature aged player comes in.
But there is not much to be optimistic about.
Optimistic is my secret middle name.

Mitchell, a good free agent, a scrimshaw type Smokey. Wingard smith Bruest Shiels McEvoy etc patched up better from whatever’s restricting them. Another year of development Worpel cousins Nash Lewis CD ross etc.

Balanced with loss of probably roughy birchall Puopolo burgoyne
 

Bugs1977

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Optimistic is my secret middle name.

Mitchell, a good free agent, a scrimshaw type Smokey. Wingard smith Bruest Shiels McEvoy etc patched up better from whatever’s restricting them. Another year of development Worpel cousins Nash Lewis CD ross etc.

Balanced with loss of probably roughy birchall Puopolo burgoyne
Don’t be so quick to write off Birchall. He might surprise a few.
 
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Flukey!

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Optimistic is my secret middle name.

Mitchell, a good free agent, a scrimshaw type Smokey. Wingard smith Bruest Shiels McEvoy etc patched up better from whatever’s restricting them. Another year of development Worpel cousins Nash Lewis CD ross etc.

Balanced with loss of probably roughy birchall Puopolo burgoyne
I gotta say I do like the look of CJ.
I think he could be a really good player.
 

ScottMaginness

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If the ladder position were to stay as it as and assuming the club doesn’t trade it’s first round pick then we have 2 picks inside the top 30. It might not seem like much but it’s a start.

I begin every game-day hoping we will win. When we do win I'm in a celebratory mood for a couple of days until I get worried looking at the ladder thinking if we keep winning it will make our draft position worse in a year where we probably won't be challenging for the premiership. If we have a close loss I make excuses as to why we lost or put it down to bad luck and then I look at the ladder and think "Wow we could be 4th if only..." but at least we might get better draft picks.

It is a topsy-turvy season for me as a fan.
 

cb16

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This is true but none of those teams have the quality players we have that could be combined with adding a couple of youngsters from this years draft. It’s probably too late to get a top 2 pick now but 1 season of getting a top 5 pick isn’t a death sentence.

It’s ridiculous how many some of our own fans can’t see that. The Mitchell injury has basically handcuffed us this season in making any push towards and in September. Clarko has / is trying everything he can do to plug a sinking ship but even the great one is running out of fingers and toes to stop us going under.

The bottoming out I envisage for this season if you want to call it that will aid us in getting top 5 pick (hopefully a gun kid that slides) along with (FS) Finn Magginness and with multiple additions (Coniglio, Patton, Greenwood etc) also combined with the impending return of Mitchell.

Yeah so it’s not so much a 1 season bottoming out but more so a tapping out of a season where nothing has gone right for us on the injury front. The call will also be made to give any retiring veterans a fair well game too if / when the season spirals. As Hawthorn fans we’ve all been so spoiled for so long that we’re just not used to being in this position but even the best clubs go thorough these periods. The question I put forward is are we smart enough to park our ego and realise it? Play the kids FFS!
Great post.

Geelong looked pretty bleak a few seasons ago and they've completely rejuvenated with 1-2 drafts and a bit of luck on the side.

Teams that bottom out fully rarely ever win flags.

Mitch coming back, Wingard and Scully getting proper preseasons and getting used to our structures, Worpel and Scrimshaw potentially becoming elite, 1 top 5 draft pick and another freebie in Finn Maguiness, and maybe even landing a big fish in the off-season ie Coniglio has us bang on right in contention in the next few years.

Throw in the best coach of the modern era.. Not worried at all.
 

Dragz

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Great post.

Geelong looked pretty bleak a few seasons ago and they've completely rejuvenated with 1-2 drafts and a bit of luck on the side.
if Kelly walks,with Danger, Selwood etc all another year older, their midfield will be in all sorts of trouble. Yes, they're looking great now, well done to them, but if they don't go all the way this year, they won't do it next.
 

fpm84

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Most people are more encouraged by the geelong model. its not so much high draft picks as getting group of 4-6 in in one draft. In truth 4-5 retirements already look likely
One thing Stephen Wells does better than anyone is mature age selections, going back to Harry Taylor and Podsiadly.

Two of our recent mature agers in Stewart and Kelly are likely AA selections this year, Menegola is a handy player and last year we picked up Tom Atkins from our VFL aside who’s played every senior game this season.

I know Hawthorn drafted Mirra to lesser effect (he’s a fair bit older than our guys too) but our success in this area shows that there are plenty of plug and play options at state level that can instantly improve an AFL team.
 

Davo-27

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One thing Stephen Wells does better than anyone is mature age selections, going back to Harry Taylor and Podsiadly.

Two of our recent mature agers in Stewart and Kelly are likely AA selections this year, Menegola is a handy player and last year we picked up Tom Atkins from our VFL aside who’s played every senior game this season.

I know Hawthorn drafted Mirra to lesser effect (he’s a fair bit older than our guys too) but our success in this area shows that there are plenty of plug and play options at state level that can instantly improve an AFL team.
we used to do that too with Stratton, Puopolo and I.Smith, but recently we seem to ignore the second tier competitions
 

Hawthorn United

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Our last 3 top ten picks were Ellis, Dowler and Thorp.


Our last 3 1st rounders got us jom, Mitchell and Wingard.
Misleading. Wingard also cost us Burton, who is a first round quality player.

JOM was multiple picks, that we didn't enter the draft until the 70s.

So 3 players at the cost of 4 first round picks, some 2nds, 3rds and 4ths.

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Hawthorn United

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I agree we need to start using first round draft picks.

I disagree that finishing low as possible for three or four years will do any good, except in creating a loser culture. It's not as if Pick 6 will be quantifiably better than Pick 10, we sometimetime get seduced by the metaphorical symbolism of numbers i.e. Pick 6 WILL be twice as good as pick 12...it doesn't work that way

You play your best team, try to win each week, work out who is up for it and who isn't, and trade and draft for needs, same as always.
Pick 6 isn't twice as good as 12, but it lets you have the choice of 6 other players that you didn't.

I dont want us to tank and finish low as possible, but if a player ranked as top 5 is a lot better than the 6th ranked talent in the draft, I know what I'd prefer.

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