List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

[Spursfan]

I’d argue a series of drafts set up our dynasty particularly 2001 and 2004 with some other key players like Crawford, Croad, Changa, Birch and Cyril all acquired via the draft. It wasn’t one arsey draft that got us to the top, it was the clubs dedication to a draft and development strategy over a period of years. That’s the strategy we have moved away from, to our detriment I think.

Trading in players brought us our 3 peat. We wouldn't have won without Gibson, Hale, Lake, Burgoyne, Gunston, McEvoy, Frawley (as FA) being traded in.

 

[Flag08]

Trading in players brought us our 3 peat. We wouldn't have won without Gibson, Hale, Lake, Burgoyne, Gunston, McEvoy, Frawley (as FA) being traded in.

My point was, if you read my post above, was that the players above were top ups. The core of the side were drafted in. Now we are trying to trade in our core.

 

[Mercy Seat]

The 2004 draft set up our dynasty. Granted we struck gold but it shows 2-3 players can go a long way

We had a priority pick, which requires years of bottoming out.

Bottoming out is not going to happen. All evidence shows that it kills the club slowly from the inside. See Melbourne, Carlton, etc.

No team except for Hawks 2008 has bottomed out and then won a flag, and we were only down for a couple of years. We essentially rebuilt 75% of our list between 08 and 13 and then went on to win 3 more.

 

[SA HAWK]

Free agent mate. No trade.

Restricted Free Agent so GWS have the option to match whatever contract we offer if he wants to play for us.

 

[Mercy Seat]

My point was, if you read my post above, was that the players above were top ups. The core of the side were drafted in. Now we are trying to trade in our core.

What's a core? All players are equal as far ask the club is concerned. It's not a dissimilar ratio of traded in players v drafted to out 3pete era team.

 

[Spursfan]

My point was, if you read my post above, was that the players above were top ups. The core of the side were drafted in. Now we are trying to trade in our core.

Yes I understand your point, but that core was drafted in during the priority pick era where 'bottoming out' made a lot more sense, plus the team was at rock bottom when Clarko arrived.

 

[Flag08]

Yes I understand your point, but that core was drafted in during the priority pick era where 'bottoming out' made a lot more sense, plus the team was at rock bottom when Clarko arrived.

We got 1 player via that system. 1.

 

[hamohawk1]

massive difference for when we have traded in 'top up' players before vs now was we had a genuinely elite core i.e hodge, lewis, mitchell etc

 

[Mercy Seat]

We got 1 player via that system. 1.

2

 

[Spursfan]

We got 1 player via that system. 1.

pretty good player though Roughead ( I presume we aren't counting X Ellis)

 

[Flag08]

massive difference for when we have traded in 'top up' players before vs now was we had a genuinely elite core i.e hodge, lewis, mitchell etc

Correct, which we got via the draft.

 

[Glacier]

My point was, if you read my post above, was that the players above were top ups. The core of the side were drafted in. Now we are trying to trade in our core.

I agree
I feel it’s leaving massive worrying gaps

 

[Spursfan]

Correct, which we got via the draft.

All those picks used for Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell were the result of trades. So unless we're prepared to trade good players and I mean really good players for top picks (and hope we draft the right players) there's no point comparing the situation now to the situation then, IMO.

 

[Davo-27]

My point was, if you read my post above, was that the players above were top ups. The core of the side were drafted in. Now we are trying to trade in our core.

exactly, when we won our 3 peat we traded in 2 ruckmen, 3 tall defenders, a gun young forward and a special talent in Burgoyne from 2009-2014, the rest of the pieces were there already, now were bringing in 3 mids, a lanky def and a sml forw? we can draft mids and sml forwards if we have decent picks, trade for the important hard to get pieces like rucks and tall def/forw... going after(trading big for) dime a dozen mids is a strategy i dont understand.

 

[Glacier]

I think we are in massive trouble personally

 

[Spursfan]

I think we are in massive trouble personally

This offseason is massive, stuff it up and I'd agree we're in strife

 

[Luv_our_club]

It’s not a question of tanking, it’s a question of a change of strategy.

We’ve spent many years trading out of the first and often second round to bring in high end talent or trading for retreads (like Scrimshaw) where the value of a 21 year old with two years in an AFL system short circuits some of the need for development.

We’ve turned over small increments of the list and our drafting has been from the bottom end of the draft. We’ve done well but ultimately the list lacks depth.

If we’re looking for value trading picks for high end talent costs us draft and salary cap capital. My view is we should be using picks and cap space but pulling back on trading for “stars”.

It is not about tanking. Hard to be clearer myself.

 

[OnTheRocks]

Let's have a garage sale at the end of the season.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I think we are in massive trouble personally

Id be interested in hearing a pessimistic view. It is not like we don't all sometimes think pessimistic thoughts.

For example, my biggest worry is that players like Omeara and Wingard and Scrims, even if they stay around for a rebuild, are not the players who can necessarily drive a flag.

Mitchell is a gun, but not an obvious generational elite like S. Mitchel, Hodge, Franklin.

Having lived through the Schwab years, where we had lots of talent in our team, you can start to see the flag winning players as opposed to just the BNF winning players.

I think Geelong and Collingwood are a model that we are sort of following. But they have had great luck too in developing and finding players. We haven't had that luck yet.

 

[Glacier]

Id be interested in hearing a pessimistic view. It is not like we don't all sometimes think pessimistic thoughts.

For example, my biggest worry is that players like Omeara and Wingard and Scrims, even if they stay around for a rebuild, are not the players who can necessarily drive a flag.

Mitchell is a gun, but not an obvious generational elite like S. Mitchel, Hodge, Franklin.

Having lived through the Schwab years, where we had lots of talent in our team, you can start to see the flag winning players as opposed to just the BNF winning players.

I think Geelong and Collingwood are a model that we are sort of following. But they have had great luck too in developing and finding players. We haven't had that luck yet.

I think you’ve summed it up well for me
I just don’t see how continually trying to trade talent in benefits the club long term
It’s almost like we are trying to hang onto an aura that is no longer there instead of getting some high grade youth into the club
This is just my opinion of course but it’s a little worrying
I can see a very big cliff looming to be honest

 

[Luv_our_club]

I think you’ve summed it up well for me
I just don’t see how continually trying to trade talent in benefits the club long term
It’s almost like we are trying to hang onto an aura that is no longer there instead of getting some high grade youth into the club
This is just my opinion of course but it’s a little worrying
I can see a very big cliff looming to be honest

I tend to agree, but what we have in our corner is, i hope, a lack of delusion.

I think some clubs live in delusion, like the MFC. We did in the late 1990's, and it drove us mad.

It will be Sam Mitchell who probably defines this rebuild as our next coach, and he is at the club right now. Interesting times.

 

[eldorado]

Bottoming out has worked precisely...never.

It's the AFL version of trickle-down theory.

 

[Brant]

Bottoming out has worked precisely...never.

It's the AFL version of trickle-down theory.

Agree.

Also, what is ‘bottoming out’? For Carltank, it means numerous year finishing last & about a decade in the Bottom 4.

This Club (post 2004) & with Clarko - bottoming out means missing the finals twice in 3 years (2017 & 2019).

There’s nothing to say that Bottoming Out means a Wooden Spoon. In fact, with our list, I reckon ‘Bottoming Out’ is finishing 10th - 14th. It is very possible that we ‘bottom out’ but are still better than about 4-8 other teams, who are also at differing stages of sliding/building.

 

[Nick the Pig]

Each year end trade/FA/draft period should be used to improve the list compared to the year before. If this includes trading our draft picks for A grade (Wingard), potential unfulfilled talent (Scrim), or needs based I'm not phased. The key is year on year improvement and balancing what you give up for what you bring in.

Taking last year as an example the net gain of Wingard, Scully, Scrim and the late speculative pics (Golds, Kosi etc) was in my opinion greater than what we gave up/lost in Burton, Duryea, Langford, Jono, Lovell and early speculative pics which may or may not ever make it. Our list improved. Of course you also have to hope the development of our existing younger players offsets the natural drop off in the older guys.

Bottoming out on purpose for draft picks is an immediate step backwards with no guarantee when or even if improvement will come. Draft picks are way too hit and miss to be sure of future sucess. Too much luck is involved. It's a stragey I don't want.

 

[Pessimistic]

Geelong and collingwood have been rebuilding since 2011. Five years longer than us

Collingwood retain Pendleton’s and Sidebottom. Geelong Selwood Hawkins Taylor and Ablett sort of

We still have 12 of the 2015 premiers remain. Bruest Gunston Smith Shiels would be the most likely to remain in our possible team threatening in finals