List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

Aug 27, 2015
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We’ve turned over small increments of the list and our drafting has been from the bottom end of the draft. We’ve done well but ultimately the list lacks depth.
Good summary.

In the past three years we've traded for Mitchell (currently 25), JOM (25), Impey (23), Scully (27), Scrimshaw (20) & Wingard (25). Those age numbers suggest we're planning to challenge in 1-3 years, so we still have some time up our sleeve to assemble the list as Clarko would like it before giving the flag a serious tilt.
Problem is with McEvoy (29), Smith (30), Gunston (27), Stratton (30), Bruest (28) & Shiels (28) the clock is ticking especially considering all those guys are probably banged up to various degrees from the threepeat years.

My feeling is without uncovering another couple of elite talents from the draft and bringing in a few gun Free Agents we may be stuck in the same no-man's-land Norf were in when they were making prelims but were never a serious threat. What concerns me even more is the need to fund-raise for Dingley by maximizing our appeal to sponsors might result in Kennett insisting the team remains in finals contention even if we are better served in the long term by bottoming out for a year or so. I'm not even sure we would be, but loathe the idea of on-field decisions being made for off-field reasons.

Then you need to look at the competition as a whole a gauge the relative strengths of teams who'll be contending. The weaker the field, the less work we have in front of us. That's tricky because who knows exactly how things will look in 2-3 years? Geelong for instance will be out of the picture :) but Brisbane will be tough and Collingwood & GWS will probably still be strong.




I think Geelong and Collingwood are a model that we are sort of following. But they have had great luck too in developing and finding players. We haven't had that luck yet.
Bottoming out has worked precisely...never.
You guys heard of Jordan De Goey? He was pick 5 in the 2014 draft. Collingwood had a s**t year and fully capitalized. Remember when West Coast finished last in 2010 even though they weren't really that bad, and used that pick to grab Andrew Gaff?

There's bottoming out and there's bottoming out. Nobody's arguing we want to be anchored to the bottom for a decade like Melbourne or Carlton. That would be stupid. However if we finish bottom 8 one year (sooner than we think?) do we trade that pick for an A-grade 24 or 25 year old, or gamble it at the draft to maybe pick up a genuine superstar? Frankly I don't know the answer, it really depends where the club thinks the entire list is at.

However let's not go around telling fibs like "bottoming out never works" because you don't need to bottom out more than a year to profit immensely, which is precisely what ALL recent Premiership teams have done.

Marcus Bontempelli? Pick 4, 2013 draft.
Dustin Martin? Pick 3, 2009.
Nic Natanui? Pick 2, 2008.
Trent Cotchin? Pick 2, 2007.
Josh J. Kennedy? Pick 4, 2005.
Scott Pendlebury? Pick 5, 2005.
Luke Hodge? Pick 1, 2001.

The conversation we should be having is how do you win a Premiership WITHOUT bottoming out.
 
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Roughie

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If we can’t land a top free agent or land someone through trading (with the little bargaining chips we have) I think then the club will have to resign to the fact that we will have to draft. I think the way we positioned our self with creating cap space we thought more top players would hit the free agent market then have, and we thought we could’ve landed a quality free agent. If we don’t land a ready made A grader we may have to abandon the recruitment stratergy and hold our first round picks. There’s no doubt this off season will decide our future as I don’t believe Clarkson wants to leave the club in bad shape on the start of an entire rebuild for Sam Mitchell to inherit. I hope we can land some body because it would be a shame to see the likes of Mitchell and Jaeger have to slog it out for a few seasons as we develop some first round draft picks
 

Roughie

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The conversation we should be having is how do you win a Premiership WITHOUT bottoming out.

You can do it by topping up like we have the problem is we’re running out of tradeable options and have freed cap space to at this point not make an impact in free agency. The stratergy we are using will be adopted by many teams in five or ten years time when players become more willing to explore their options and player movement becomes more fluid, or if the league ever lets teams trade players with out having to get them to sign off on it.
 

Wandering Hawk

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For me it's all about our forwards. Otherwise our list holes seem fillable, eg Cogs, Brody.

What the hey are we doing with our forward line? It already is bad, and we're likely losing most of: Roughead, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Schoenmakers. Even adding Patton, and having him stay miraculously fit, we're still a wreck.

Do we even have enough current depth to field seven players in 2020, even without any injuries? It barely feels like it.

Breust, Gunston, Wingard, Lewis
Ceglar, Moore, Nash

Depth: Mitchington

Yet to debut: Hanrahan, Ross, Walker

Ffs we are absolutely abysmal, and have no real hope at development of even decent draft picks to competitive level/age before Gunston and Breust age out. We're facing complete annihilation here.

So Breust, Gunston, Wingard are our good core. Ceglar can't currently get a game due to poor form. Lewis and Moore look good but have less than five games each. Nash tries but isn't ready yet. Having Lewis, Nash, and Moore locked in best 22 for the entire 2020 season (without any other meaningful depth) is just going to be agony.

Every year since 2015 we dip four players into depth, sometimes five. We have a terrible best 7 and then a depth of one. Imagine resting two of those first four names... hot trash. The only depth player with even 1 game experience is Mitchington, a St K reject - who hasn't played a game for us and so far hasn't played a game at all for two years.

As it is we'll be relying on kids to play full seasons. Nobody gets dropped on bad form. Nobody gets to rest because of a niggle... VLF depth being called up due to injury. Even with Hanrahan and Walker managing to debut and taking a fantastic debut half season load, we're still playing 3+ gassed kids each week. No wonder Wingard has bad body language.

Maybe pray Puopolo stays on 1 year, keep Schoenmakers a year, and swing Mirra forward? Pretty garbage non solutions. TOB, Glass, Miles forward? Clutching at straws here.

How did Clarko let us get to this?

Apart from a KPF, we need to pick up 3-4 more 20yo+ players to have any hope at contending 2020-2022. We need to trawl every delisted player and find a few even C graders.

Its trade or die.
 

PhatHQ

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Bottoming out is a laugh!

Where do you play a couple of kids when you put our best list on the field? Nowhere that’s where.
We have pockets, wings & flanks covered. Lewis & Chip as the bookends & for the time being Sicily & Rough are filling gaps.

Rough (retire) Birch (who) Burgoyne (retire) all gone this year imo.
Poppy, Stratts, Schoey, McEvoy & Smith are all in the twilight.
That’s it outside of a few list cloggers that are not quite depth players.

Kpf, KPD, Mid x 2 & we are looking fine & still adding pieces through the draft.

Patton has been linked to us.
There are a couple who have mentioned Sam Day as a possibility FA who can play both ends.
Cogs is the obvious big name.
Brodie cheep option.
We could look to trade for someone like Connor Ballenden to develop alongside Lewis & add depth.

Brad Crouch should be in the radar for 2019/20 anyway if he’s gettable.

Seriously, a couple of FA signings in Cogs & Day.
Do a couple of cheep trades in Patton, Brodie & Ballenden.

Pay up for Crouch & were good to go.

Bottoming our is a s**t idea.
If we play the kids at the expense of the inevitable players moving on & finish bottom 8 for Anderson & Maginness in the draft that’s a win, surly & a look at the future by pumping games into development & synergy.
 

seysearles

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The 2004 draft set up our dynasty. Granted we struck gold but it shows 2-3 players can go a long way

I would argue that it wasn't just the 2004 that we struck gold in but rather the combination of 3 off-seasons (2001, 2004 and to a lesser extent 2010) that contributed significantly to the success.

2001 - Hodge Mitchell
2004 - Roughy Franklin Lewis
2014 - Hale Smith Puopolo

I just don't think a single draft or off-season is enough to get you there.
 
You guys heard of Jordan De Goey? He was pick 5 in the 2014 draft. Collingwood had a **** year and fully capitalized. Remember when West Coast finished last in 2010 even though they weren't really that bad, and used that pick to grab Andrew Gaff?

There's bottoming out and there's bottoming out. Nobody's arguing we want to be anchored to the bottom for a decade like Melbourne or Carlton. That would be stupid. However if we finish bottom 8 one year (sooner than we think?) do we trade that pick for an A-grade 24 or 25 year old, or gamble it at the draft to maybe pick up a genuine superstar? Frankly I don't know the answer, it really depends where the club thinks the entire list is at.

However let's not go around telling fibs like "bottoming out never works" because you don't need to bottom out more than a year to profit immensely, which is precisely what ALL recent Premiership teams have done.

Marcus Bontempelli? Pick 4, 2013 draft.
Dustin Martin? Pick 3, 2009.
Nic Natanui? Pick 2, 2008.
Trent Cotchin? Pick 2, 2007.
Josh J. Kennedy? Pick 4, 2005.
Scott Pendlebury? Pick 5, 2005.
Luke Hodge? Pick 1, 2001.

The conversation we should be having is how do you win a Premiership WITHOUT bottoming out.

There is a history of clubs who have taken what seems like a strategic dive to get an early pick, but that's not something that necessarily equates to success - particularly if you look at Collingwood, who are precisely the worst club to spruik draft success for.

They did similar in 2013 by trading out players and picked up Scharenberg and Freeman. Meanwhile they picked Adams, Treloar, Hoskin-Elliott, Varcoe, Crisp, Howe, Aish, Mayne and Greenwood up in trade.

West Coast dropped for early picks with Naitanui and Gaff, but neither of those guys even played in their Grand Final win.

Statistically speaking, bottoming out works very rarely, even for short bursts - and there's really no bulk of evidence from teams where list management has been handled differently to judge it against. At the moment, Collingwood and Geelong look like the two teams who are the genuine premiership threats, and both of them are hinging more on list development through trade than through draft at this point.
 
You guys heard of Jordan De Goey?


However let's not go around telling fibs like "bottoming out never works" because you don't need to bottom out more than a year to profit immensely, which is precisely what ALL recent Premiership teams have done.


The conversation we should be having is how do you win a Premiership WITHOUT bottoming out.

Right, so your interpretation of "bottoming out" is actually "using a high pick in the draft one year"?

Not sure anyone else will agree with you in the context of how the word is used.

Yes, we should go to the draft if we finish outside the eight. That is Not bottoming out in anyone's language.
And actual "bottoming out" has never worked
 

thejockey

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We need to stay the course and be patient with it .

A decent quality FA in , trade well and we probably get a decent pick this season the way things may be heading.
The comp is so even that would see us rise back up the ladder.
Got a handy midfielder coming back in too.

I’m not as negative on our list as a lot of people . It has plenty of holes but every side does.
We are having a down year so we need to cop it , play the young kids on the list and see who has the makings off an AFL player .

Then back ourselves to have a good off season . I think we will be a decent side next season .
 
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Right, so your interpretation of "bottoming out" is actually "using a high pick in the draft one year"?

Not sure anyone else will agree with you in the context of how the word is used.

Yes, we should go to the draft if we finish outside the eight. That is Not bottoming out in anyone's language.
And actual "bottoming out" has never worked
"Bottoming out" means finishing near the bottom. How many years isn't implied in the term.
 

SHAKESPEARE

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We need to drop this year. We can't stock honourable wins late in the year.

We also can't finish bottom. We need to play the kids, take a top 4 pick and try like hell to get Coniglio and maybe Patton if cheap.

We need to be ruthless for a year.
 
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Each year end trade/FA/draft period should be used to improve the list compared to the year before. If this includes trading our draft picks for A grade (Wingard), potential unfulfilled talent (Scrim), or needs based I'm not phased. The key is year on year improvement and balancing what you give up for what you bring in.

Taking last year as an example the net gain of Wingard, Scully, Scrim and the late speculative pics (Golds, Kosi etc) was in my opinion greater than what we gave up/lost in Burton, Duryea, Langford, Jono, Lovell and early speculative pics which may or may not ever make it. Our list improved. Of course you also have to hope the development of our existing younger players offsets the natural drop off in the older guys.

Bottoming out on purpose for draft picks is an immediate step backwards with no guarantee when or even if improvement will come. Draft picks are way too hit and miss to be sure of future sucess. Too much luck is involved. It's a stragey I don't want.
Yep. It’s possible to improve your list and actually go backwards - particularly when the Brownlow medalist is out for the year. I like our defence a lot. I think our forward line and midfield are not shabby either but there are a few teething problems here and there.

Patience
 
Yep. It’s possible to improve your list and actually go backwards - particularly when the Brownlow medalist is our for the year. I like our defence a lot. I think our forward line and midfield are not shabby either but there are a few teething problems here and there.

Patience

This is the way I look at it, our list improved but our ability to gel has gone backwards, that tends to happen when you make big changes over an off season. A little bit of time together is the difference between performing and not performing, figuring out where each player sits.

Even excluding next year's selections or trades, our entire team is genuinely good on paper, and our depth isn't as horribly bad as is made out.
 
Wanting to finish as low as possible for a good pick is so gutless, I can't even...

You play the players you believe will be part of your next flag, you try to win every game, and you take the pick you get the end. If its pick 4,iys pick 4.if its 10, its 10

Some ******* rubbish I'm reading here...
 

Flag08

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There is a history of clubs who have taken what seems like a strategic dive to get an early pick, but that's not something that necessarily equates to success - particularly if you look at Collingwood, who are precisely the worst club to spruik draft success for.

They did similar in 2013 by trading out players and picked up Scharenberg and Freeman. Meanwhile they picked Adams, Treloar, Hoskin-Elliott, Varcoe, Crisp, Howe, Aish, Mayne and Greenwood up in trade.

West Coast dropped for early picks with Naitanui and Gaff, but neither of those guys even played in their Grand Final win.

Statistically speaking, bottoming out works very rarely, even for short bursts - and there's really no bulk of evidence from teams where list management has been handled differently to judge it against. At the moment, Collingwood and Geelong look like the two teams who are the genuine premiership threats, and both of them are hinging more on list development through trade than through draft at this point.
That last point is not right. The pies and cats sides are primarily based on good drafting.
 

Bumps"N"Grins

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Um this is not even a debate as to should we or shouldn't we bottom out by design.

Keep playing the way we are at the moment we will be getting access to early picks like it or not.
 

Davo-27

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You play the players you believe will be part of your next flag

do you honestly believe the team playing atm has a chance in hell of winning a final, let alone a premiership?

i think we will bottom out whether we like it or not, or even if we manage to manufacture enough ugly wins to make finals we wont win 1

i think the last 4-5 years we have allowed our list to stagnate, last season was a step in the right direction dropping some list cloggers but we still have ageing players ect, its really frustrating watching our list management for the last 4-5 years
 
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https://outline.com/6ACVLX

Not sure if this link has been posted. Mark Robinson's views on the Hawks.

And guys, maybe don't attack Robbo, and maybe try debating his thoughts. It's kind of sickening when the general response to negative thoughts on the Hawks is people attacking the individual. Oh it's only drunk Robbo.. or Carey hates the Hawks anyway... etc. Anyways...
 

Davo-27

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https://outline.com/6ACVLX

Not sure if this link has been posted. Mark Robinson's views on the Hawks.

And guys, maybe don't attack Robbo, and maybe try debating his thoughts. It's kind of sickening when the general response to negative thoughts on the Hawks is people attacking the individual. Oh it's only drunk Robbo.. or Carey hates the Hawks anyway... etc. Anyways...

Its a great article because its true, we are putting out the oldest team week in week out and were playing awful football, doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, truth is our champions of the past are going out in disgrace because they are hanging around for too long and now theres a log jam of older players abd i cant think of 1 other than Henderson that is even performing this season, even Gunston is being put in the backline for half the season, a decision which i cant even fathom, but he gets praised for shirking responsibility, so its all ok, you know we should pay Sicily extra 100,000's of dollars for being a 50 goal forw then play him in the backline when he snaps at goal and misses, oh wait thats what we do with Gunston.

heres a novel idea, play players who are playing well and want to win....

id rather a team full of youngsters that want to win and have heart, rather than a bunch of 30-somethings who drop chest marks and refuse to tackle...
 
https://outline.com/6ACVLX

Not sure if this link has been posted. Mark Robinson's views on the Hawks.

And guys, maybe don't attack Robbo, and maybe try debating his thoughts. It's kind of sickening when the general response to negative thoughts on the Hawks is people attacking the individual. Oh it's only drunk Robbo.. or Carey hates the Hawks anyway... etc. Anyways...

What he wrote on that article wasn't new. At least being mentioned or discussed either in here or any other media outlets. I wish he can give a deeper anaylsis on why no cohesion between the players, no more unsociable hawks, why is it so easy for opposition player to score, etc.

This is part of football cycle, you're up and then down. It's the how long you will stay down and how soon you can be back at the top. If we lose a game we lose the game. It's the means that's become the issue.

Deliberately and intentionally losing the game for the sake of getting a top 5 draft picks is a very risky moves. No and no for deliberately botoming out. Let the clubs try their best and let's enjoy the ride and the rise.
 
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