List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

Noel Gallagher

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Im getting a bit sick of hawks fans calling the wingard trade a bust this week. Smacks of sour grapes and needong a scapegoat for the demons loss.

Hes played for a month and he is 25.

Ridiculous.
Don’t know about anyone else, but my frustration was heightened over the weekend as I was dead set against the trade at the time. Our first rounder - which is now Xavier Dursma AND Ryan Burton AND our second round pick - yeh we got a third rounder back but still too much.

Again hope I’m proven wrong in the long term but very unhappy with trade...
 

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Roger Rogerson

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If the Glenhope in the Birch thread is correct and he is finished and will retire mid-season, do we not have 3 spaces for the mid-season draft? Mohr is gone, Birch gone and we are already 1 short?

Talk about good timing to start our list strategy for 2020. Get a 6 month head start. Take 3 in a draft when most clubs wont participate means there is a fair bit of certainty who we can get. Focus on training them for the remainder of the year rather than necessarily pushing them to contribute at AFL level. Could turn into a nice little advantage for us.
 

Milkshaker

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If the Glenhope in the Birch thread is correct and he is finished and will retire mid-season, do we not have 3 spaces for the mid-season draft? Mohr is gone, Birch gone and we are already 1 short?

Talk about good timing to start our list strategy for 2020. Get a 6 month head start. Take 3 in a draft when most clubs wont participate means there is a fair bit of certainty who we can get. Focus on training them for the remainder of the year rather than necessarily pushing them to contribute at AFL level. Could turn into a nice little advantage for us.
A bit like Essendon getting to grab the cream of their top up plsyers - only we are legit.👍
 

HODGEYROAD

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I think we'll get a pick in the 5-8 range this season, we still have to play GWS x 2, WCE x 2, Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong, can't see us getting much change out of those 6 games. Think we're looking at 7-9 wins with a finish between 11th-14th.
 

Holy Rioli

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after reading a bit about Noah Anderson, I can suddenly see where the temptation to 'tank' comes from. But as a club we can't follow the Melbourne/Carlton/St Kilda approach of tanking and destroying the culture in the process.

If we end up with a pick around our current ladder position (5ish) and trade up to pick 2 somehow, even if it is overs, I'd back this approach in over outright tanking.

On top of that our boys are too proud, they're winners, not losers and even if you instructed Jaeger to play back pocket and Frawley full forward and have Harry Morrison and Dylan Moore attend every centre bounce, these boys would find a way to win enough games to ruin the plan anyway.
 

Pessimistic

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If we ever want another sustained period near the top, it will only happen 3 - 5 years after we clear the decks and bottom out.
If we want to spend the next 10 years trying to fluke a flag, but actually finishing 5th - 14th, we should continue trading really good 21 year olds along with draft picks for players 25 and over.
Mostly about 25. Your last sentence really is disingenious

And with a 66% winning finals record, if any team would fluke a flag, it’s Hawthorn.
 

lethalselbow

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In a few weeks Big Boy will be 30 and Scully 28. Gunston is 27. Highly unlikely any of those will be playing in our next flag. We are miles away.
How did we go against Geelong, the other week? Thought the effort wasn't too bad for the team, especially with such shallow midfield depth and all beaten up.

Things are never as bad as they seem or a glorious as they seem.
 

lethalselbow

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Don’t know about anyone else, but my frustration was heightened over the weekend as I was dead set against the trade at the time. Our first rounder - which is now Xavier Dursma AND Ryan Burton AND our second round pick - yeh we got a third rounder back but still too much.

Again hope I’m proven wrong in the long term but very unhappy with trade...
How's Burton going?
 

Davo-27

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a quick glance as i have not watched much Port Adel this season because everytime i see Rozee, Duursma and Butters it hurts me they arent with us

Ryan Burton 2019 - 7 games 2 goals, 21.9 disposals, 4.6 marks, 2.1 tackles, 4 reb 50's , 2.1 1%ers, 75.2% DE (averages)
+Xavier Duursma 2019 - 7 games 4 goals, 17.7 disposals, 5.1 marks, 2 tackles, 2 clangers, 1 1%ers, 78.2% DE (averages)

*Chad Wingard 2019 - 5 games 6 goals, 13.6 disposals, 3.2 marks, 3.2 tackles, 1 goal assists, 0.2 1%ers, 57.4% DE (averages)
 
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Roughie

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If the Glenhope in the Birch thread is correct and he is finished and will retire mid-season, do we not have 3 spaces for the mid-season draft? Mohr is gone, Birch gone and we are already 1 short?

Talk about good timing to start our list strategy for 2020. Get a 6 month head start. Take 3 in a draft when most clubs wont participate means there is a fair bit of certainty who we can get. Focus on training them for the remainder of the year rather than necessarily pushing them to contribute at AFL level. Could turn into a nice little advantage for us.
I could be wrong but wouldn’t all midseason drafted players contracts only be for the remaining months of the season. The mid season draft is to replace players who are put on the long term injury list and won’t return during the season. So with that you only draft ready made players who can play if called upon. It’s great for senior vfl, wafl and sanfl players as they have the opportunity to be on an afl list, and if they are able to play a game in the AFL then they show their wares to potentially be drafted. But surely all midseason pick ups are practically replacement rentals
 

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Roughie

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It is so early in the season and besides Melbourne a few years back no team intentionally tanks. If your list isn’t winning games and it’s getting late in the season then why wouldn’t you send your veterans off early for their required surgeries and cleans ups so they are 100% come the off season. If your team is sitting in the bottom four late then you may as well get some experience in your younger players especially when it comes to a list management perspective Regarding on who you retain. There are some players who don’t show up in the reserves but always impact in the seniors.

Hawthorn like all teams won’t tank. I am a mostly positive supporter of the club but we have an extremely easy draw, the close losses against Melbourne, bulldogs and St Kilda are three clubs who aren’t a factor what so ever this season. Clarkson will play our best team available and drop the players who require time in the seconds but his analysis of our list being middle of the road is spot on. If we can’t land an a grader through free agency or trade we will go back to the draft.
 

Pessimistic

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It is so early in the season and besides Melbourne a few years back no team intentionally tanks. If your list isn’t winning games and it’s getting late in the season then why wouldn’t you send your veterans off early for their required surgeries and cleans ups so they are 100% come the off season. If your team is sitting in the bottom four late then you may as well get some experience in your younger players especially when it comes to a list management perspective Regarding on who you retain. There are some players who don’t show up in the reserves but always impact in the seniors.

Hawthorn like all teams won’t tank. I am a mostly positive supporter of the club but we have an extremely easy draw, the close losses against Melbourne, bulldogs and St Kilda are three clubs who aren’t a factor what so ever this season. Clarkson will play our best team available and drop the players who require time in the seconds but his analysis of our list being middle of the road is spot on. If we can’t land an a grader through free agency or trade we will go back to the draft.
We have had an easy draw, but on fox the other night they said the current ladder makes our draw the second hardest
 

Gralin

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If we ever want another sustained period near the top, it will only happen 3 - 5 years after we clear the decks and bottom out.
If we want to spend the next 10 years trying to fluke a flag, but actually finishing 5th - 14th, we should continue trading really good 21 year olds along with draft picks for players 25 and over.
People seem to forget that from the end of 2016 we've done a lot to get younger talent in, just because we haven't cut everyone over 28 and replaced them with 18 year olds doesn't mean we aren't rebuilding the list for another long term tilt.

2016 the only loss we would have been unhappy about was Brad Hill.
We replaced Sam Mitchell (33) and Lewis (30) with Tom Mitchell (23) and Jaeger (23)
Hendo was picked up as cheap depth (we thought) but has turned into a really good contributor who helped the transition from Hill.
We also grabbed Morrison, Mitchell Lewis, Cousins and Nash who have all played senior footy and Hanrahan who is yet to debut

2017 Hodge "retired" (33) and Gibbo (33) and we traded in Impey (22)
We grabbed Worpel, Moore, Ross and Jones in that draft who all look like they could play a role plus Mirra for depth and to avoid losing him from Box Hill

2018
We lost Cyril early :'( but grabbed Scrimshaw (20) Wingard (25) and Scully (27)
Our draft picks look like they have a few potential players in there who have 2-3 years to get there

The club had a real issue in the 22-26 range, we had a lot of unproven and in some cases no good young players and were very top heavy

They've worked on trading in player to plug that gap in our list, much like they did with the failed drafts where we grabbed the likes of Thorpe, Dowler and to a lesser extent Ellis to rebuild for our tilt.

Gunston, Breust, Scully and Shiel will be the veterans come 2022 when we are looking to really challenge.
Mitchell, Sicily, Wingard and Jaeger will be 27-28 and still in prime football years

Scrimshaw, Impey, Cousins, Worpel, Hardwick, Morrison, Lewis, Nash and Moore will all be in that 23-26 range

Gives you an idea of the holes we still need to fill but why would we throw all that work away and bottom out?


[

I could be wrong but wouldn’t all midseason drafted players contracts only be for the remaining months of the season. The mid season draft is to replace players who are put on the long term injury list and won’t return during the season. So with that you only draft ready made players who can play if called upon. It’s great for senior vfl, wafl and sanfl players as they have the opportunity to be on an afl list, and if they are able to play a game in the AFL then they show their wares to potentially be drafted. But surely all midseason pick ups are practically replacement rentals
Yeah we can only play the against their original team this year if they agree and if we don't offer them a contract for next year they can return to their original club
 

StalkingHawk

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Wait,
Bottoming out: Best case scenario, in terms of draft picks, is finishing last instead of 1st.

This effectively generates one (1) extra draft pick then finishing 1st (the number 1 pick).

All other finishing positions versus an expected top place finish, generate less then an extra draft pick.

Cut the list back, sure, but finishing low is not the solution to improving.
 

Dewnior

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In a few weeks Big Boy will be 30 and Scully 28. Gunston is 27. Highly unlikely any of those will be playing in our next flag. We are miles away.
How far away do you really think we are? 10 years? Or do you just underestimate the quality of our fitness and medical programme?

Pretty sure everyone of us didn't think 10 years ago that Silk will be playing into his mid 30s.

We do it different to other clubs. We don't run our players into the ground. We manage them for the long term. FFS Lewis and Hodge are still getting games and they were bash and crash types.

Scully in particular will play into his mid 30s assuming he stays (serious) injury free. We will be competing again for a flag within 3-4 years and Gunna will be younger than Rough is now.
 

Topiary

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I had some info Monday that underlines exactly what I have said on here before.
Be assured we have a number of strategies in play. Should Cogs decide to stay, and my info says, the Club is ambivalent about the outcome, truly ambivalent about the outcome. There is no question about the priority but you can only control what you can control. I suspect, GW has no idea what Cogs is thinking, but is strategising he will stay.

Napoleon is hell bent on being competitive by 2022, utterly hell bent.
GW is delivering the outcomes.


So, we will all be focused on getting Cogs, if it does not happen, we have a number of different plans, perhaps not as palatable, but still plans for List improvement.

I keep being reassured we have options, but one that is definitely gaining more internal ascendancy (and I must STRESS it was in ascendancy BEFORE Saturday) is “position us to gain the best possible outcomes from this year’s Draft. I believe I said this at least a month ago.

Obviously the final ladder position is in play, as is gaining or not gaining Cogs, we could try and use our first 2019 AND 2020 in this year’s Draft.

Now, how we use later picks for some of the other List issues is also an objective.
Also, I am aware we could try and pry a “young mid Turk if List target outcomes don’t eventuate”. That might mean we use a first round pick differently, as in a trade
Bottom line. IT IS TOTALLY FLUID. But, we are positioned for all possibilities.

As AC said Saturday (and that Press Conference was telling) we don’t do middle table.
We won’t be bottoming out.
 

BobHawk

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Agree with all this however, my main concern remains that the club's recent history has been to aggressively trade for big name players at the cost of injecting quality youth into the team. As you say, the situation is fluid but I fear the club may be undervaluing high draft picks pursuing a short term strategy. The strategy must also be fluid based on the circumstances we find ourselves in and adapted to and tweaked accordingly. There needs to be a balance.

I had some info Monday that underlines exactly what I have said on here before.
Be assured we have a number of strategies in play. Should Cogs decide to stay, and my info says, the Club is ambivalent about the outcome, truly ambivalent about the outcome. There is no question about the priority but you can only control what you can control. I suspect, GW has no idea what Cogs is thinking, but is strategising he will stay.

Napoleon is hell bent on being competitive by 2022, utterly hell bent.
GW is delivering the outcomes.


So, we will all be focused on getting Cogs, if it does not happen, we have a number of different plans, perhaps not as palatable, but still plans for List improvement.

I keep being reassured we have options, but one that is definitely gaining more internal ascendancy (and I must STRESS it was in ascendancy BEFORE Saturday) is “position us to gain the best possible outcomes from this year’s Draft. I believe I said this at least a month ago.

Obviously the final ladder position is in play, as is gaining or not gaining Cogs, we could try and use our first 2019 AND 2020 in this year’s Draft.

Now, how we use later picks for some of the other List issues is also an objective.
Also, I am aware we could try and pry a “young mid Turk if List target outcomes don’t eventuate”. That might mean we use a first round pick differently, as in a trade
Bottom line. IT IS TOTALLY FLUID. But, we are positioned for all possibilities.

As AC said Saturday (and that Press Conference was telling) we don’t do middle table.
We won’t be bottoming out.
 

Roger Rogerson

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I could be wrong but wouldn’t all midseason drafted players contracts only be for the remaining months of the season. The mid season draft is to replace players who are put on the long term injury list and won’t return during the season. So with that you only draft ready made players who can play if called upon. It’s great for senior vfl, wafl and sanfl players as they have the opportunity to be on an afl list, and if they are able to play a game in the AFL then they show their wares to potentially be drafted. But surely all midseason pick ups are practically replacement rentals
If we want to keep anyone we pick up in the mid-season draft beyond this season we can. Hence the thinking clubs may look for longer term players rather than immediate top ups.
 

Roger Rogerson

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Agree with all this however, my main concern remains that the club's recent history has been to aggressively trade for big name players at the cost of injecting quality youth into the team. As you say, the situation is fluid but I fear the club may be undervaluing high draft picks pursuing a short term strategy. The strategy must also be fluid based on the circumstances we find ourselves in and adapted to and tweaked accordingly. There needs to be a balance.
I have no doubt this draft or next we will seek to load up. Most clubs do this as the starting basis for the rebuild but with the A-graders that have been on offer with Tom Mitch, Jaegar and Wingard the last few years I think we have deferred the draft intake - possibly due to how we have rated those drafts but also more likely because we have valued getting the A-graders in more. Bird in the hand stuff. In addition we have pulled players in via other means such as the international rookies who we may have identified to fill holes but they havent quite worked out yet which we may have formed the view that balanced out no having early picks in the draft.

As we may see this year, if we can't attract Cogs having missed Lynch last year, having grabbed those 3 may prove crucial in keeping us competitive as if we do end up down the ladder this year and next even being able to trade in for an A grader might be a challenge let alone get a free agent. Contrast us to right now if we didn't have those 3 and we only had the promise of youth having gone to the draft - would we really be in a position to attract 3 A graders over the next 3 years? We would really be relying upon A graders to emerge from the draft to keep us competitive - a much less certain outcome.

The other consideration is how players who are early draft selections can come in and have immediate impacts - have we deferred our draft intake year in our rebuild because draftees are better prepared and can contribute straight away?

Right now it looks like our list strategy is on a knife's edge but i am of the view this side is underperforming - we should have another 2 wins - and if we did then we wouldn't be so concerned about things. We will hit form at some stage this year - it is so disappointing to watch how well we moved the ball and more importantly handled the ball over preseason to where we are now.

The best result this offseason would be to nail Cogs and keep our first rounder. It would also be a massive bonus if we can nail a player or two in the mid-season draft.
 

Walshawk

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How far away do you really think we are? 10 years? Or do you just underestimate the quality of our fitness and medical programme?

Pretty sure everyone of us didn't think 10 years ago that Silk will be playing into his mid 30s.

We do it different to other clubs. We don't run our players into the ground. We manage them for the long term. FFS Lewis and Hodge are still getting games and they were bash and crash types.

Scully in particular will play into his mid 30s assuming he stays (serious) injury free. We will be competing again for a flag within 3-4 years and Gunna will be younger than Rough is now.
Anyone who thinks we can win a flag within three years is overestimating our list. Talk to some neutrals and they will tell you that our list is one of the worst in the AFL. We have a great team culture and a brilliant coach which will stop us from finishing bottom four, but we are no flag threat and will still not be with one or two FAs to trades. Our mission should be to get as many top 25 draft picks as possible in 2019/20/21, then top up/trade as required. This will set us for the next 10+ years. If we keep trading away picks and young players for another two years, then yes, it will definitely be too late for they current over 27s to play in our next flag.
 

HODGEYROAD

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Anyone who thinks we can win a flag within three years is overestimating our list. Talk to some neutrals and they will tell you that our list is one of the worst in the AFL. We have a great team culture and a brilliant coach which will stop us from finishing bottom four, but we are no flag threat and will still not be with one or two FAs to trades. Our mission should be to get as many top 25 draft picks as possible in 2019/20/21, then top up/trade as required. This will set us for the next 10+ years. If we keep trading away picks and young players for another two years, then yes, it will definitely be too late for they current over 27s to play in our next flag.
Tell that to Al Clarkson as he's trying to win a flag in the next 3 years.
 

TylerDurden

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Anyone who thinks we can win a flag within three years is overestimating our list. Talk to some neutrals and they will tell you that our list is one of the worst in the AFL. We have a great team culture and a brilliant coach which will stop us from finishing bottom four, but we are no flag threat and will still not be with one or two FAs to trades. Our mission should be to get as many top 25 draft picks as possible in 2019/20/21, then top up/trade as required. This will set us for the next 10+ years. If we keep trading away picks and young players for another two years, then yes, it will definitely be too late for they current over 27s to play in our next flag.
Yeah don't subscribe to this. We improved our list this year and finished top 4 on 15 wins last year.

Mitchell injury has killed us.

Plus the competition is weaker/ more even. We don't have a team like Richmond last year belting teams regularly either.
 

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Talk to some neutrals and they will tell you that our list is one of the worst in the AFL.
There are no neutrals when it comes to talking about Hawthorn.

If you think they're objective, I can't help you. The vast majority are chronic Hawthorn-induced posterior pain sufferers.
 
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