List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

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rogiebear93

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May 17, 2017
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Anyone who thinks we can win a flag within three years is overestimating our list. Talk to some neutrals and they will tell you that our list is one of the worst in the AFL. We have a great team culture and a brilliant coach which will stop us from finishing bottom four, but we are no flag threat and will still not be with one or two FAs to trades. Our mission should be to get as many top 25 draft picks as possible in 2019/20/21, then top up/trade as required. This will set us for the next 10+ years. If we keep trading away picks and young players for another two years, then yes, it will definitely be too late for they current over 27s to play in our next flag.
I know it seems like the biased Hawthorn supporter thing to say, but neutrals are quite possibly the worst people to talk to regarding the quality of our list. There is a sense of jealousy and want for Hawthorn to have a sh*t list more than the list actually being sh*t.
 

OnceKicked50

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I had some info Monday that underlines exactly what I have said on here before.
Be assured we have a number of strategies in play. Should Cogs decide to stay, and my info says, the Club is ambivalent about the outcome, truly ambivalent about the outcome. There is no question about the priority but you can only control what you can control. I suspect, GW has no idea what Cogs is thinking, but is strategising he will stay.

Napoleon is hell bent on being competitive by 2022, utterly hell bent.
GW is delivering the outcomes.


So, we will all be focused on getting Cogs, if it does not happen, we have a number of different plans, perhaps not as palatable, but still plans for List improvement.

I keep being reassured we have options, but one that is definitely gaining more internal ascendancy (and I must STRESS it was in ascendancy BEFORE Saturday) is “position us to gain the best possible outcomes from this year’s Draft. I believe I said this at least a month ago.

Obviously the final ladder position is in play, as is gaining or not gaining Cogs, we could try and use our first 2019 AND 2020 in this year’s Draft.

Now, how we use later picks for some of the other List issues is also an objective.
Also, I am aware we could try and pry a “young mid Turk if List target outcomes don’t eventuate”. That might mean we use a first round pick differently, as in a trade
Bottom line. IT IS TOTALLY FLUID. But, we are positioned for all possibilities.

As AC said Saturday (and that Press Conference was telling) we don’t do middle table.
We won’t be bottoming out.
G'day Topiary. Love your posts and sharing with us mate.

My question would be, when you mentioned 2022, can you see how this appears very different to the narrative at the end of last season? Specifically, that we felt we would be remaining competitive this year with a real push in 2020?

I'm not against the change in direction, if that occurs, and 2022 sounds far more realistic to me than many posters thinking we are a player or two off contending next year, but to me it does suggest somewhere along the way decisions about our list have missed the mark.

By 2022 what impact will Gunston and Bruest be having? Stratton? I couldn't see McEvoy, Smith and Frawley still playing. Wingard would be what, 29?, by then. I can't reconcile that we went out, gave up Burton and our first, to recruit him thinking 2022 was the time we would be contending.
 
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Pessimistic

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It’s morally wrong to not compete the best you can.

Having a clearout to go down the ladder is pathetic, and more likely to put you in a failure cycle.

If you do find yourself down the ladder ( like 2003-5 when all our Key position players finished Carreers early) busy all means recruit as well as possible
 
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Topiary

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G'day Topiary. Love your posts and sharing with us mate.

My question would be, when you mentioned 2022, can you see how this appears very different to the narrative at the end of last season? Specifically, that we felt we would be remaining competitive this year with a real push in 2020?

I'm not against the change in direction, if that occurs, and 2022 sounds far more realistic to me than many posters thinking we are a player or two off contending next year, but to me it does suggest somewhere along the way decisions about our list have missed the mark.

By 2022 what impact will Gunston and Bruest be having? Stratton? I couldn't see McEvoy, Smith and Frawley still playing. Wingard would be what, 29?, by then. I can't reconcile that we went out, gave up Burton and our first, to recruit him thinking 2022 was the time we would be contending.
All I can suggest is the List renovation is planned to consider the players that will be coming to career high points or conclusion. As supporters we see one year’s transactions as just that. They aren’t. Each year is part of of a 2-3 year plan. Minimum. Perhaps longer.

When AC signed on to end 2022 he made it quite clear it was going to be the year he hoped to peak towards “more silverware”.

We are going to see continued and substantive change. Strap in !!!

By the way, 29 is not old. 29 can be argued as reaching the peak. It depends on the mix around him. We should have at least 12-15 “new” players on the List, players we don’t know now.
 

OnceKicked50

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All I can suggest is the List renovation is planned to consider the players that will be coming to career high points or conclusion. As supporters we see one year’s transactions as just that. They aren’t. Each year is part of of a 2-3 year plan. Minimum. Perhaps longer.

When AC signed on to end 2022 he made it quite clear it was going to be the year he hoped to peak towards “more silverware”.

We are going to see continued and substantive change. Strap in !!!

By the way, 29 is not old. 29 can be argued as reaching the peak. It depends on the mix around him. We should have at least 12-15 “new” players on the List, players we don’t know now.
Ultimately, I have complete trust in the club. But it's interesting to discuss, around 2022.

You're right, 29 isn't old, but if we are contending in 2022, it's a finite period Wingard may have left at his peak. The alternative, is you have Burton aged 25 and a first round pick 21-22. I still can't reconcile that if, originally, the club thought 2022 was when we would be contending we would pull the trigger on Wingard. Perhaps I am overating Burton but.

I feel the narrative has changed, it's a good sell, after recognising the list isn't where we thought it was. If we hit the draft, it's difficult to think these kids will be influencing games in a big way in 2022. One, two or three seasons into their careers.

It seems Free Agency will play a big part in that aim for 2022 for mine. As our list is currently missing plenty of pieces. I have high hopes for Koschitzke. But anyhow, so many variables. Cheers for providing your content mate, best poster on here.
 

Dewnior

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Ultimately, I have complete trust in the club. But it's interesting to discuss, around 2022.

You're right, 29 isn't old, but if we are contending in 2022, it's a finite period Wingard may have left at his peak. The alternative, is you have Burton aged 25 and a first round pick 21-22. I still can't reconcile that if, originally, the club thought 2022 was when we would be contending we would pull the trigger on Wingard. Perhaps I am overating Burton but.

I feel the narrative has changed, it's a good sell, after recognising the list isn't where we thought it was. If we hit the draft, it's difficult to think these kids will be influencing games in a big way in 2022. One, two or three seasons into their careers.

It seems Free Agency will play a big part in that aim for 2022 for mine. As our list is currently missing plenty of pieces. I have high hopes for Koschitzke. But anyhow, so many variables. Cheers for providing your content mate, best poster on here.
The one thing that never gets mentioned when we discuss the 'narrative' is the promise made by Clarko to Rough and Silk that he'll do everything possible to land them another flag before they retire which must have implications for list management
 

Nugett

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after reading a bit about Noah Anderson, I can suddenly see where the temptation to 'tank' comes from. But as a club we can't follow the Melbourne/Carlton/St Kilda approach of tanking and destroying the culture in the process.

If we end up with a pick around our current ladder position (5ish) and trade up to pick 2 somehow, even if it is overs, I'd back this approach in over outright tanking.

On top of that our boys are too proud, they're winners, not losers and even if you instructed Jaeger to play back pocket and Frawley full forward and have Harry Morrison and Dylan Moore attend every centre bounce, these boys would find a way to win enough games to ruin the plan anyway.
Add in Alistair Clarkson, who could never coach to lose.
 

Topiary

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Ultimately, I have complete trust in the club. But it's interesting to discuss, around 2022.

You're right, 29 isn't old, but if we are contending in 2022, it's a finite period Wingard may have left at his peak. The alternative, is you have Burton aged 25 and a first round pick 21-22. I still can't reconcile that if, originally, the club thought 2022 was when we would be contending we would pull the trigger on Wingard. Perhaps I am overating Burton but.

I feel the narrative has changed, it's a good sell, after recognising the list isn't where we thought it was. If we hit the draft, it's difficult to think these kids will be influencing games in a big way in 2022. One, two or three seasons into their careers.

It seems Free Agency will play a big part in that aim for 2022 for mine. As our list is currently missing plenty of pieces. I have high hopes for Koschitzke. But anyhow, so many variables. Cheers for providing your content mate, best poster on here.
It’s a good point. BUT, Rioli retired. (Unexpectedly, with implications often forgotten) Clarko sees Wingard (at his best) as an Xfactor replacement.
As a moment in time they weighed up the Wingard gain, (and a total List component replacing what had been lost) and the likely loss of Burton at the end his then contract, and moved.
We will forever compare the Ryan Burton move for what we get from Wingard. The very early Ledger does not look favourable but hopefully it will balance in time.
 

Nugett

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It’s a good point. BUT, Rioli retired. (Unexpectedly, with implications often forgotten) Clarko sees Wingard (at his best) as an Xfactor replacement.
As a moment in time they weighed up the Wingard gain, (and a total List component replacing what had been lost) and the likely loss of Burton at the end his then contract, and moved.
We will forever compare the Ryan Burton move for what we get from Wingard. The very early Ledger does not look favourable but hopefully it will balance in time.
With strong rumours and speculation surrounding players such as Cogs and Patton, are there any rumours or speculation regarding any interest in picking up any defenders, either this year or next?
 

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KOLOKOTRONIS

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do you honestly believe the team playing atm has a chance in hell of winning a final, let alone a premiership?

i think we will bottom out whether we like it or not, or even if we manage to manufacture enough ugly wins to make finals we wont win 1

i think the last 4-5 years we have allowed our list to stagnate, last season was a step in the right direction dropping some list cloggers but we still have ageing players ect, its really frustrating watching our list management for the last 4-5 years
Super harsh Davo

We had no choice in 2016 for 1984thorn. If Roughead doesn’t endure cancer, we get very very close.

2017, the year that had to happen, we responded in 2018 with the development of more players and a top four finish. We can’t complain.

I agree at the moment we are looking very ordinary, however we were much the same last season at 5-5 and managed to gel. At the end we endured catastrophic injuries to an inform Stratton, O’Meara and mitchell.

If Mitchell plays, we beat the dogs, saints and Melbourne. That’s how massive he is.

I think the rebuild is on the right track and we need not bottom out.

Brilliant and cheap moves in obtaining scrimshaw and Scully. Scully in particular who came back so so early! Wingard will come good, his talent is too enormous and he has the runs on the board. He will produce.

We are one more off season away and some luck with injury, we are capable of anything. Some more elite talent will be acquired at the end of this season.

I’m enjoying the ride.

How many clubs do what we’ve done. None! Geelong the only stand out and if they don’t win it this year they are approaching 10 years without a flag!

KOLOKOTRONIS
 

sohsam

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Tell that to Al Clarkson as he's trying to win a flag in the next 3 years.
Walshawk makes many valid points "which will stop us from finishing bottom four". To get that sustained 10+ year success, if finish bottom 4 for 4 years, get 8-10 good 18 year old players to build nucleus around, then can go to FA or trade to be top 4 for 4-5 years like we did before.
 

sohsam

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It’s morally wrong to not compete the best you can.

Having a clearout to go down the ladder is pathetic, and more likely to put you in a failure cycle.

If you do find yourself down the ladder ( like 2003-5 when all our Key position players finished Carreers early) busy all means recruit as well as possible
Players always try their best. We have been trying our best to get best players in and we are currently bottom 4, share same wins as Melbourne. It does not take much to be bottom 4. There is no right or wrong way. However if you think about it, if players like Smith/Gunston/Bruest had currency and club does not see them part of next premiership, someone badly needs them and can get either good 18 year old via draft or under 22, then is okay. We have traded aggressively for and got Wingard, Scully, JOM and still find ourselves bottom 4 currently. As someone else said what is best strategy to get that sustained 10 year + period where you are feature in Top 4 and give yourself to win multiple premierships. Question is are we few players away from premiership or far away
 

Gralin

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We aren't currently bottom four.
Our percentage is better than everyone outside the 8 other than Port.
Its also better than WC who are in the 8.

7th-15th is separated by a game.

We could crash and burn from here, and keep playing like we did last two weeks and it will be a long season. But we are also not out of it yet.

Get the guys playing with some confidence and freedom and and let a few of the new combinations gel and we could come home after the bye like we did in 2017.

We don't look like playing finals right now let alone competing but we are only a third of the way into the season.

Thanking for 4 months is not going to happen
 

sohsam

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We aren't currently bottom four.
Our percentage is better than everyone outside the 8 other than Port.
Its also better than WC who are in the 8.

7th-15th is separated by a game.

We could crash and burn from here, and keep playing like we did last two weeks and it will be a long season. But we are also not out of it yet.

Get the guys playing with some confidence and freedom and and let a few of the new combinations gel and we could come home after the bye like we did in 2017.

We don't look like playing finals right now let alone competing but we are only a third of the way into the season.

Thanking for 4 months is not going to happen
No team should ever go out to deliberately lose, whether have 2 games left to play for the season or not. You bring your strongest list each week to give yourself best possible chance to win. If a player is good enough to play AFL and is being played in VFL, that is not right. It is totally different concept to moving players on.
 

TylerDurden

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You know what bottoming out does
You get one early draft pick.

There was a team running around on Saturday
Four were Pick 1
Another six were top six in their draft
Four more were first rounders

Another four first rounders didn't play

And Carlton are still dead last
Love it. So bloody true.
 

WWSD

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A very busy off-season coming up for the list manager trying to work out who’s staying and who’s going. 24 players out of contract at seasons end. :oops:

Roughead
Frawley
Glass
Birchall
Hardwick
Ceglar
O’Brien
Schoenmakers
Shiels
Pittonet
Puopolo
Jiath
Henderson
Mirra
Moore
Ross
Mohr
Jones
Hanrahan
Miles
Reeves
Greaves
Golds
Cousins
 

Bugs1977

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A very busy off-season coming up for the list manager trying to work out who’s staying and who’s going. 24 players out of contract at seasons end. :oops:

Roughead
Frawley
Glass
Birchall
Hardwick
Ceglar
O’Brien
Schoenmakers
Shiels
Pittonet
Puopolo
Jiath
Henderson
Mirra
Moore
Ross
Mohr
Jones
Hanrahan
Miles
Reeves
Greaves
Golds
Cousins

If I had to guess then it would be something like this:
Roughead - No (retire)
Frawley - Yes
Glass - Yes
Birchall - No (retire)
Hardwick - Yes
Ceglar - Yes
O’Brien - Yes
Schoenmakers - No (retire)
Shiels - Yes
Pittonet - Yes (maybe trade out)
Puopolo - No (retire)
Jiath - Yes
Henderson - Yes
Mirra - Maybe
Moore - Yes
Ross - Yes
Mohr - No (retire)
Jones - Yes
Hanrahan - Yes
Miles - Yes (maybe trade out)
Reeves - Yes
Greaves - Yes
Golds - Yes
Cousins - Yes
 

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