The Premiership favourite- 2025

[Shane Heard]

Hot pies.

In the box seat…the c….s

 

[Gavin Excell]

The markets have Cats at $1.62 for next week, which is too short, and suggest they'll be similar odds for the Grand Final.

With Hawks $2.30 next week, the markets suggest they will also be slight underdogs in the Grand Final.

Guess it depends on the manner of the win by the successful team

But if Hawks won v Cats and play Pies pretty sure they'd be favourites

 

[Fadge]

But if Hawks won v Cats and play Pies pretty sure they'd be favourites

Not what the markets are saying.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Who do you prefer to play in your prelim
Lions or GC

 

[Fadge]

Who do you prefer to play in your prelim
Lions or GC

Don't care.

Anyone. Any time. Anywhere.

Brisbane have the finals experience but look a bit beaten up.

Suns lack the finals experience, but have an emerging list and have nothing to lose.

Suspect we'll be comfortable faves against either, but Preliminary Final wins are rarely handed to you.

 

[doppleganger]

Who do you prefer to play in your prelim
Lions or GC

Can we play Adelaide again please

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Who do you prefer to play in your prelim
Lions or GC

Lions. They look more beat up and damaged.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Can we play Adelaide again please

Everyone is disappointed Adelaide is out. Everyone wants their next final to be against the Crows

 

[blackey]

Who do you prefer to play in your prelim
Lions or GC

Dont care ,but glad its not the Hawks.
If they play like that again next week they will smoke the cats, and probably do the same the week after.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Dont care ,but glad its not the Hawks.
If they play like that again next week they will smoke the cats, and probably do the same the week after.

They were very impressive sure

 

[Dangerfield86]

I think Cats / Hawks winner defeats GC for the premiership.

Pies should make the GF, but Cats and Hawks playing best footy now, winner next week wins the Flag.

 

[NetworkNerd]

They were very impressive sure

Adelaide cracked under pressure. I don't think a Chris Scott coached Geelong side would fumble the ball anywhere near as much. In fact with Dear out and Lewis playing poorly, if the cats interceptor markers get going the ball will be coming back the other way very fast next week.

 

[Dangerfield86]

Pies should be faves.

Will be shorter odds next week against either Brisbane or Gold Coast than the favourite of the other Prelim will be (or should be), and will be an even money Grand Final.

Nope, pies done well to beat the crows, but Cats/Hawks playing best footy now, If the Lions win tonight they will
give the Pies a game next week, wont be easy for the Pies, but i rekon now either Geelong or Hawthorn will win the flag.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Adelaide cracked under pressure. I don't think a Chris Scott coached Geelong side would fumble the ball anywhere near as much. In fact with Dear out and Lewis playing poorly, if the cats interceptor markers get going the ball will be coming back the other way very fast next week.

Who knows
Pressure can crack any team

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

Suns are far from out of this. If they get over the Lions tonight will be interesting to see what price they come in to.

 

[RCAB]

GF day is a neutral ground game. If Adelaide can't get it done, it's on them.

To the half dozen Crows fans that laughed at this post...

 

[PerthBoy86]

Adelaide cracked under pressure. I don't think a Chris Scott coached Geelong side would fumble the ball anywhere near as much. In fact with Dear out and Lewis playing poorly, if the cats interceptor markers get going the ball will be coming back the other way very fast next week.

I was shocked how slow, fumbly, switched off they looked. Surely a bit crook still? Cos they played even worse than vs Collingwood.

 

[Vindicater]

Dont care ,but glad its not the Hawks.
If they play like that again next week they will smoke the cats, and probably do the same the week after.

Nah. I was there live. Geelong should account for them. Hawks were intense but they made a lot of silly errors that the cats will exploit.

The cats will also tackle which the crows seemed allergic to last night.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Suns are far from out of this. If they get over the Lions tonight will be interesting to see what price they come in to.

I hope they play phenomenal footy and beat a beaten up Lions. I mean I only really want the Lions to win if they can beat the Pies, NOT limp over the line cos the Suns were poor.

 

[Carringbush2010]

So Adelaide, one of the 'pressure ' teams have exited in straight sets. Probably because they didn't apply pressure like they did in h&a. Whether they couldn't or didn't.

Hawks ground defence last night was excellent and disciplined. Denied Adelaide any meaningful transition and by extension denied them score.

Not to mention Hawks beat em up in the phone box.

It's the same old movie, teams that pressure and are in the box seat . To do this you need to out two way run your opposition. Can't be sustained across 4 qts, therefore your opposition will have momentum periods.

This is where the top teams 'tempo ' the game. ALL the teams have this capability.

The favourite is no clearer than the 4th of September

 

[Fadge]

Nope, pies done well to beat the crows, but Cats/Hawks playing best footy now, If the Lions win tonight they will
give the Pies a game next week, wont be easy for the Pies, but i rekon now either Geelong or Hawthorn will win the flag.

You might be right, but equally, you could be wrong.

 

[Fadge]

I was shocked how slow, fumbly, switched off they looked. Surely a bit crook still? Cos they played even worse than vs Collingwood.

The Pies broke them.

 

[hk89]

Not what the markets are saying.

I think you're misreading the markets. If you're looking at Hawthorn only being third favourite for the flag now, and Pies being seconds favourite, I don't think that factors in the relative chances (in the bookies' eyes) of Pies vs Hawks in a GF, should that be what happens.

I think the odds you are seeing at the moment more reflects Pies favouritism to beat either lions or GC at the G, and Geelong's favouritism to beat Hawthorn. Those combine to give Pies the better odds of the flag over Hawthorn at the moment. If we manage to beat Geelong, odds will shift dramatically, and I'd guess, probably enough to have us go in favourites, given we'd a) have just beaten Geelong, the current outright favourites and that b) recent results suggest we have Pies measure by 10 goals, c) We dealt with Adelaide a bit more easily than Pies did , d) Remove the adelaide win, and pies have been ordinary for a while now, 3 wins from their last 8 games, with the 2 other wins being Melbourne (by less than a kick) and Richmond and e) We'll have an extra day's break. In fact I'd question Pies being second favourite right given their two recent losses at the G to interstate teams (Lions and Freo).

Probability wise, we'll likely never know, because Geelong should beat us, having the better team on paper, but those games have seldom followed what it says on paper, so who knows, but if we do win, looking at the current odds, I'd be VERY surprised if we'd not go in favourites over either Pies or GC, with Lions perhaps going in as favourites if it is a Lions vs Hawks GF.

 

[Munich]

I've always thought the team that has the tougher prelim is usually the team to beat. Last year a good example

We've had some easy prelims and have won the Granny. 09, 11 and 22 from memory.

 

[hk89]

Nah. I was there live. Geelong should account for them. Hawks were intense but they made a lot of silly errors that the cats will exploit.

Yes, that's a concern. We lost our last encounter against Geelong largely off the back of a series of stupid mistakes that were punished. If we can reduce those we are a chance given we were very close otherwise. Of course reducing mistakes in a high pressure final is easier said than done

I also think Geelong have the finals experience to absorb momentum flows when it goes against them, and more effectively exploit them when things are flowing their way. GWS's 7 goal run in the elim shows we struggle a bit with the former (similar thing happened with our H&A game against Adelaide at AO).

I'm largely just pleased I'll be able to watch the game live after after two away finals. Hopefully another classic. While we lost , I think from a crowd involvement point of view the Pies vs Hawks prelim in 2011 was the most amazing game I've seen live (and I was at the last Hawks vs Cats prelim). Hoping for a similar atmosphere to 2011 - with a different result of course.