The Premiership favourite- 2025

[Vindicater]

Yes, that's a concern. We lost our last encounter against Geelong largely off the back of a series of stupid mistakes that were punished. If we can reduce those we are a chance given we were very close otherwise. Of course reducing mistakes in a high pressure final is easier said than done

I also think Geelong have the finals experience to absorb momentum flows when it goes against them, and more effectively exploit them when things are flowing their way. GWS's 7 goal run in the elim shows we struggle a bit with the former (similar thing happened with our H&A game against Adelaide at AO).

I'm largely just pleased I'll be able to watch the game live after after two away finals. Hopefully another classic. While we lost , I think from a crowd involvement point of view the Pies vs Hawks prelim in 2011 was the most amazing game I've seen live (and I was at the last Hawks vs Cats prelim). Hoping for a similar atmosphere to 2011 - with a different result of course.

Make no mistake. You guys were very good last night. Hunted in packs and relished the contest. You will give the cats a challenge for sure and can win.

Just think you will make some costly errors, particularly late. A few of your guys looked absolutely gassed in the fourth quarter but it was not exploited by the crows because you had already put the game away.

 

[RCAB]

Unless Hawks thrash Geelong (which won't happen) then there's no way they start favourites against Collingwood. It's just not going to happen.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes, that's a concern. We lost our last encounter against Geelong largely off the back of a series of stupid mistakes that were punished. If we can reduce those we are a chance given we were very close otherwise. Of course reducing mistakes in a high pressure final is easier said than done

I also think Geelong have the finals experience to absorb momentum flows when it goes against them, and more effectively exploit them when things are flowing their way. GWS's 7 goal run in the elim shows we struggle a bit with the former (similar thing happened with our H&A game against Adelaide at AO).

I'm largely just pleased I'll be able to watch the game live after after two away finals. Hopefully another classic. While we lost , I think from a crowd involvement point of view the Pies vs Hawks prelim in 2011 was the most amazing game I've seen live (and I was at the last Hawks vs Cats prelim). Hoping for a similar atmosphere to 2011 - with a different result of course.

Geelong are finals experienced but nowhere near as much as the 2022 and preceding versions. Slightly less than Collingwood and Brisbane but more than Hawthorn. If the sides played a final in 2022 or 2023 the difference would be huge.

Unless Hawks thrash Geelong (which won't happen) then there's no way they start favourites against Collingwood. It's just not going to happen.

The favourites keep losing so maybe it's a tag that means little this year.

 

[VinnieB]

Everyone is disappointed Adelaide is out. Everyone wants their next final to be against the Crows

Hopefully they make it next year.....with Melbourne.

 

[beez]

We've had some easy prelims and have won the Granny. 09, 11 and 22 from memory.

Yep. It's easy, and lazy in hindsight to argue either way. Geelong's a great example. Collingwood over the last 25 years is too.

Sure, how prelims pan out can definitely have an effect, but so does form, experience, players missing, team and player match ups etc. There are just so many variables.

 

[hk89]

Unless Hawks thrash Geelong (which won't happen) then there's no way they start favourites against Collingwood. It's just not going to happen.

If that happens (Pies going in bookie's favourites against Hawthorn), I'll seriously consider putting some money on Hawthorn. Don't normally bet on footy, last time was 2014 Grand Final, and that worked out nicely

 

[VinnieB]

If that happens (Pies going in bookie's favourites against Hawthorn), I'll seriously consider putting some money on Hawthorn. Don't normally bet on footy, last time was 2014 Grand Final, and that worked out nicely

Good for you….

 

[blackey]

Suns are far from out of this. If they get over the Lions tonight will be interesting to see what price they come in to.

Sun's lost to Port not so long ago.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Crazy that 3 of the last 4 remaining teams have won the last 3 flags.

 

[Fadge]

Crazy that 3 of the last 4 remaining teams have won the last 3 flags.

Once those three teams secured top 4, it's not really that crazy....

 

[Run n Spread]

70% Collingwood win
20% Brisbane
8% Hawthorn
2% Geelong

 

[NetworkNerd]

70% Collingwood win
20% Brisbane
8% Hawthorn
2% Geelong

Based on what?

 

[Run n Spread]

Based on what?

It's my prediction and my tip
How does anyone tip?
Reckon it's a pies Hawks gf

 

[Seeds]

Crazy that 3 of the last 4 remaining teams have won the last 3 flags.

How is that crazy? More likely the norm then not I would of guessed.

 

[Rotayjay]

The Cats should have it from here. They'll go into the prelim as favourites, and they would go in as favourites for the grand final regardless of whether they play Brisbane or Collingwood.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

How is that crazy? More likely the norm then not I would of guessed.

How often are the last 3 premiers in a row all in a prelim together?

 

[Corn Cobbers]

The Cats should have it from here. They'll go into the prelim as favourites, and they would go in as favourites for the grand final regardless of whether they play Brisbane or Collingwood.

Agreed, would definitely be putting $$ on the Cats, if I was a different person

 

[hk89]

70% Collingwood win
20% Brisbane
8% Hawthorn
2% Geelong

Pies have been poor for some time. Their only decent win was against perhaps the worst minor premier of all time. The only other two wins in their last 8 games was against Tigers and Melbourne (who they barely got over the line against). In terms of form over the latter part of the season (including finals). You've got them close to reverse order! Perhaps Lions over Hawthorn, but currently Squiggle's model has exactly the reverse order of your predictions in terms of the strength of the remaining teams. The reality is most prediction models are tipping two very close prelims.

 

[hk89]

It's my prediction and my tip
How does anyone tip?

It depends on how much they like losing money. Most people use some semblance of logic, but you do you.

Reckon it's a pies Hawks gf

I'd love that, but seems unlikely. Lions would probably deserve to be favourites against pies if not for the venue, and Cats seem best team in it right now, so a very real chance we do not see either of those teams in the GF.

 

[Run n Spread]

It depends on how much they like losing money. Most people use some semblance of logic, but you do you.



I'd love that, but seems unlikely. Lions would probably deserve to be favourites against pies if not for the venue, and Cats seem best team in it right now, so a very real chance we do not see either of those teams in the GF.

Nonsense.
Be positive man. They're the 2 best in it.
15 wins would be top 4 any other year.
Pies were best till rd 16 till the cue went in the rack

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Nonsense.
Be positive man. They're the 2 best in it.
15 wins would be top 4 any other year.
Pies were best till rd 16 till the cue went in the rack

The cue went in the rack my ass. Speaking of which pure ass we made top 4. Gold Coast choked.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Start of the year I tipped lions vs hawks and Lions to win. Not far off regardless what happens now. Any side are capable.

 

[Run n Spread]

Start of the year I tipped lions vs hawks and Lions to win. Not far off regardless what happens now. Any side are capable.

Mine was lions Hawks pies giants.
So.actually when it shakes out got 3.
Not quite sure what happened to gws. Reckon their too cute with it. Try peak for September but forget to win during the year

 

[Nunez]

Start of the year I tipped lions vs hawks and Lions to win. Not far off regardless what happens now. Any side are capable.

This is it for me. The prelims are as unpredictable as they come this week.

 

[NetworkNerd]

How often are the last 3 premiers in a row all in a prelim together?

2011 springs to mind. It had the last 4 premiers
2006 West Coast
2008 (Hawthorn)
2007/9 (Geelong)
2010 (Collingwood)