The premiership race is not wide open

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PJays

Club Legend
Nov 2, 2020
1,125
1,381
AFL Club
St Kilda
The best team in July doesn't always win in September.

And the fact that it's Geelong- with their last decade of finals fails- should give extra pause for thought.

Melbourne still deserving favourite for mine.
 

FAIRANDBALANCED

Premiership Player
Jul 11, 2010
3,243
3,350
Fox News Studios- Trondheim
AFL Club
Collingwood
What a dumb take.

We play Richmond once (MCG), Collingwood once (MCG), Sydney once (SCG), Giants once (Canberra). All games against teams who fancy (or ar least did before the season started) themselves finalists in 2022.

As for double ups, thats the luck of the draw. St Kilda already took a game off us, and WCE, Port and Doggies were all tipped to be finalists (and potentially top 4).

How anyone could’ve predicted that is beyond me.

Nobody could have predicted North would be bad? You as a top 4 team play them twice, yet Collingwood who was second last, plays them once. Perplexing? We also play the premiers twice...

Cats are an excellent team and deserve to be favourites. They have definitely been given the easiest fixture imaginable though.

West Coast, North, Saints, Port and Doggies twice. Geesh. You'd wanna finish top 2.
 

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samDD

Debutant
Jun 13, 2022
127
176
AFL Club
Richmond
What a dumb take.

We play Richmond once (MCG), Collingwood once (MCG), Sydney once (SCG), Giants once (Canberra). All games against teams who fancy (or ar least did before the season started) themselves finalists in 2022.

As for double ups, thats the luck of the draw. St Kilda already took a game off us, and WCE, Port and Doggies were all tipped to be finalists (and potentially top 4).

How anyone could’ve predicted that is beyond me.
You think Collingwood fancied themselves as finalists after finishing second bottom last year? This is some embarrassing cope from you mate.
Giants? After two seasons of being nowhere near it? What?

You barely beat Richmond because you sniped Prestia out of the game.
 

Wojcinski

Steve Hocking's Polish Friend
Aug 14, 2011
16,139
24,491
Wieliczka Salt Mine
AFL Club
Geelong
You think Collingwood fancied themselves as finalists after finishing second bottom last year? This is some embarrassing cope from you mate.
Giants? After two seasons of being nowhere near it? What?

You barely beat Richmond because you sniped Prestia out of the game.
You guys got lucky only having to play North once
 
Jul 21, 2022
1
0
AFL Club
Fremantle
Everyone is saying the premiership race is wide open. I don't agree with this at all as it seems pretty clear cut who the best side is. The best side is Geelong and everyone else is playing for second. Runners up race on the other hand is pretty open with about six teams a chance to make the grand final. Pisses me off because Geelong have been dominating for 15 years now.

2022 premiers - Geelong.
2022 runners up - Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne or Sydney.

Put your house on the Cats to win the premiership. $3.50 odds with the TAB you won't have to worry about lotto tickets again.
Let’s see…
As I model AFL like a master..
Geelong flag 35% ( so 3.50 represents thin value …)
Spoon is 51% north 49% WCE
I backed WCE at 81$ in January
That was a STEAL
Essendon finals 9000-1
Hawks finals 9600-1
Basically NEITHER club has ANY chance of playing finals
Bet of the round
Saint kilda beat WCE 79% of the time
So easy money on the minus there
Parting thoughts
Sydney are now the MOST likely team to finish 2nd outside of Melbourne so just let that sink in
Flag chances for all combined teams sitting 9th and lower …
Is a whopping 0.9%
Richmond is only 1.9%
So the tigers really have shot them selves in the footy losing 4 games this year by under a goal !
 

HTPunter

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2014
8,337
11,251
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Certainly deserved favourites.

Still one of those teams I wouldn't bet on because can't trust that finals history. Not fussed if they win the flag and I missed out on 3.50 odds because I'd want more.

Do have an extremely good forward line though.
 

samDD

Debutant
Jun 13, 2022
127
176
AFL Club
Richmond
Cats are as big a certainty as they were in......2008.
They're actually not.
Their team right now is far worse than their 2008 team, and the competition is significantly stronger.

They boxed in Melbourne effectively on their narrow cow paddock a few weeks ago; it won't be the same story when they're forced to play at the MCG in finals.
 

The Swert

Premiership Player
May 3, 2009
3,505
4,686
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Cats are as big a certainty as they were in......2008.

Do you mean the 2008 when Geelong:
  • were reigning champions
  • had a record 9 All-Australians in their team
  • had the reigning Brownlow medallist (Bartel)
  • had the reigning Players, Coaches and Media MVP (Ablett)
  • had a win-loss record of 21W-1L
  • had the 3rd highest percentage since WW2 of 161.8%.

Yeh...this current team ticks all those boxes.

All I see is a bunch of calf muscles about to go twang!
 

Black Haze

Rookie
Oct 24, 2016
36
80
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Do you mean the 2008 when Geelong:
  • were reigning champions
  • had a record 9 All-Australians in their team
  • had the reigning Brownlow medallist (Bartel)
  • had the reigning Players, Coaches and Media MVP (Ablett)
  • had a win-loss record of 21W-1L
  • had the 3rd highest percentage since WW2 of 161.8%.

Yeh...this current team ticks all those boxes.

All I see is a bunch of calf muscles about to go twang!
Yes but the 2022 side has something the 2008 side lacks - Patrick Dangerfield.
 

Asapartyhat

Hat wearer
Apr 25, 2012
1,936
2,637
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
stirling senators
Teams that are on a roll are Collingwood .Sydney and Collingwood GF if the finals draw allows it.
 

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Demonic Ascent

Bang! Bang bang bang!
Feb 21, 2006
18,639
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Muckertal
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Turtles, NYJets, Celtics, Tottenham
Geelong look ominous and a relatively cruisy finish - Port will put up a fight as will Suns up at Metricon, but even if they drop a game it still looks like top spot is sewn up.

Dees have a very interesting run home. With away games against Lions and Freo, and a rematch against the Pies, if they can finish off the season with 5 straight wins then I’m backing them in come finals.
I don't think even the most optimistic Demons supporter thinks we'll win 5 straight heading into September. 3-2 would be a good result.
 

Two Coins

Rookie
Jul 21, 2022
35
28
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Danny Ric!
It's as wide open as the top 8 allows it to be.

It's easy to speak with bias - Geelong have looked pretty damn good lately. Even as a Cats supporter you're inclined to question when they will drop games in the embarrassing fashion that they did over the past few years though have lately looked to shake this off a fair bit better than perhaps they had in the past.

And yep - I think even most Geelong supporters would agree that there is a serious shadow of doubt being cast upon them as we roll in to the finals.

BUT... history does not dictate the future and that can be said for everyone simply.
 

Demonic Ascent

Bang! Bang bang bang!
Feb 21, 2006
18,639
16,480
Muckertal
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Turtles, NYJets, Celtics, Tottenham
I don't think Geelong's history in September comes into it because they've changed their game style this year. The problem was they took a good H&A gameplan that beats poorer sides and tried to run it through the rough and tumble of finals footy. They've tweaked it now and are deserved favourites. I think Melbourne/Freo are the challengers with Sydney the wildcard - Collingwood & Carlton I can't see making it past the semis.
 

Igavemyloveachicken

All Australian
May 8, 2021
950
1,547
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
It's a race in five teams for mine who wouldn't surprise me if they won the flag, Melbourne, Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle and Brisbane.
I disagree with the O.P that the Premiership isn't wide open but that's the beauty of this forum.
 

Falcon3518

Club Legend
Mar 13, 2022
2,519
1,322
AFL Club
Richmond
Hope the pies or Freo win it. But it’s anybody but Dees at this point, then Cats


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

PerthBoy86

Norm Smith Medallist
May 23, 2016
6,081
4,847
AFL Club
West Coast
Theyre good but not clear favourites. Having a great streak but there's no guarantees that'll continue into the finals. Even the 2008 Cats couldn't make the final hurdle, and they were far more dominant than the 2022 Cats. Let's just wait and see. If you're that confident though I would like to see you put at least a geand on the Cats flag.
 

RandB

Premium Platinum
Sep 9, 2007
15,577
11,165
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
MUFC Norwood
Geelong have all the ducks and drakes in line atm

Fit, strong, organized.

The only thing I can see worrying them is a good, fast side on a hotter than usual GF day.

Who that good, fast side is though I dont know. Certainly isnt Melbourne atm.
 

Footy_Fan2007

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2008
9,546
13,032
Sin City
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
No One
Geelong have all the ducks and drakes in line atm

Fit, strong, organized.

The only thing I can see worrying them is a good, fast side on a hotter than usual GF day.

Who that good, fast side is though I dont know. Certainly isnt Melbourne atm.
Melbourne are still the benchmark. Their football is the best. They are the reigning premiers and until someone knocks them off in a final they should be the favourite.

It’s about this time last year they lifted for the final month.
 

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