The premiership race is not wide open

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PJays

Club Legend
Nov 2, 2020
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The Premiership is still wide open.....between Geelong and Melbourne.
Look, it's one off games we're talking about. This isn't best of 7 like American sports. Anything could happen.

But, this season reminds me of 2014 when it became quite apparent in the final months of the season that 2 teams were clearly ahead of the rest.

Hawthorn scraped through their prelim by 3 points that year, underlining the point that anything can happen.

But ultimately everyone was expecting a Sydney Hawthorn GF which was what occurred.
 

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Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
9,217
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Melbourne
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Look, it's one off games we're talking about. This isn't best of 7 like American sports. Anything could happen.

But, this season reminds me of 2014 when it became quite apparent in the final months of the season that 2 teams were clearly ahead of the rest.

Hawthorn scraped through their prelim by 3 points that year, underlining the point that anything can happen.

But ultimately everyone was expecting a Sydney Hawthorn GF which was what occurred.
An interesting statistic would be how often the two favoured teams leading into the finals series play off in the Grand Final?

Very rarely one would suggest.

Edit: Geelong v. Melbourne Grand Final Quinella paying $4.1 on Betfair currently, meaning the probability of it happening is about 25%.
 
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PJays

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Nov 2, 2020
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An interesting statistic would be how often the two favoured teams leading into the finals series play off in the Grand Final?

Very rarely one would suggest.
Yes you're right. Very rarely.

And Geelong's poor finals record should give us pause for thought.

But I also wonder how often there's been 2 teams rated head and shoulders above the rest. If you look at the bookies odds Sydney are 3rd favourite at $7 and Brisbane next at $12. That type of spread is a very rare scenario.
 

BigVic

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Sad to say Richmond have it in the bag. Their win yesterday will propel them to greatness. Dusty will be back and he is Mr. September. Expect a rude shock everyone come September. It's a different ball game. Tiger got Port (W), GWS (W) and Hawthorn (W) still to come.
 

iameviljez

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Oct 20, 2004
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An interesting statistic would be how often the two favoured teams leading into the finals series play off in the Grand Final?

Very rarely one would suggest.

Edit: Geelong v. Melbourne Grand Final Quinella paying $4.1 on Betfair currently, meaning the probability of it happening is about 25%.
Top of my head - 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2004, 2001.
 

PJays

Club Legend
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Top of my head - 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2004, 2001.
Interestingly many of those were years with clear top twos in the betting markets, like this year

There have been plenty of seasons where no one remembers who the favorites were, because it would've been very tight. 2017 and 2020 were like that.

Obviously there's plenty of years with a completely unexpected GF matchup though. Like GWS making it from 6th in 2019, or the Dogs winning in 2016. Like I said, it's a one off game.
 

Duskfire

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Jun 30, 2007
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I am not sure why Geelong and Melb are so far ahead odds wise. The years where it was the case before, two teams were clearly dominant. 2011 for instance, Geelong and Collingwood were so far ahead of everyone else (season wise at least) that them being overwhelming favourites makes sense. Its not really the case here? Geelong are playing well, but they could easily have lost a couple of those games, and Melbs last couple of months have been ordinary and a little inconsistent.

Its a little weird to me.
 

Down the throat

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May 1, 2015
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I am not sure why Geelong and Melb are so far ahead odds wise. The years where it was the case before, two teams were clearly dominant. 2011 for instance, Geelong and Collingwood were so far ahead of everyone else (season wise at least) that them being overwhelming favourites makes sense. Its not really the case here? Geelong are playing well, but they could easily have lost a couple of those games, and Melbs last couple of months have been ordinary and a little inconsistent.

Its a little weird to me.
It's because all the top teams have been inconsistent (bar Collingwood) and no one really trusts them (including Collingwood).

This market is all about who feels the most likely based on finals history I think.
 

PJays

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I am not sure why Geelong and Melb are so far ahead odds wise. The years where it was the case before, two teams were clearly dominant. 2011 for instance, Geelong and Collingwood were so far ahead of everyone else (season wise at least) that them being overwhelming favourites makes sense. Its not really the case here? Geelong are playing well, but they could easily have lost a couple of those games, and Melbs last couple of months have been ordinary and a little inconsistent.

Its a little weird to me.
Which of the other teams do you think are being undervalued by the betting agencies?

eg Sydney ($7), Bris ($12), Coll ($13), Freo ($21), Rich ($21) etc etc

Brisbane are probably the best value for mine. They've been a very good team for a long time.

The reason Brisbane is $12 though, is they've got a history of finals failure and they haven't won on the MCG since 2014. And they'll probably need to beat 2 good teams on the MCG to win the flag. And their top 4 berth isn't assured either, they'll finish the season with 2 games that are close enough to 50/50 but they'll need to win one to make top 4. (Or both if they get upset by Carlton this week).
 
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Aussie_boy

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Dec 21, 2012
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I am not sure why Geelong and Melb are so far ahead odds wise. The years where it was the case before, two teams were clearly dominant. 2011 for instance, Geelong and Collingwood were so far ahead of everyone else (season wise at least) that them being overwhelming favourites makes sense. Its not really the case here? Geelong are playing well, but they could easily have lost a couple of those games, and Melbs last couple of months have been ordinary and a little inconsistent.

Its a little weird to me.

Have to also take into account that it's quite unlikely either side misses the top 4 and there are another 2 spots up for grabs between 4 teams (5 I guess if you count Carlton). Expect the odds of 3rd/4th to shorten once the minor round is done.
 

Kobe Gryant

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Jul 31, 2021
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I am not sure why Geelong and Melb are so far ahead odds wise. The years where it was the case before, two teams were clearly dominant. 2011 for instance, Geelong and Collingwood were so far ahead of everyone else (season wise at least) that them being overwhelming favourites makes sense. Its not really the case here? Geelong are playing well, but they could easily have lost a couple of those games, and Melbs last couple of months have been ordinary and a little inconsistent.

Its a little weird to me.

It's the state of the competition. The two standouts aren't even that good...but it doesn't change that they're still the standouts.

It says a bit about the state of footy atm. You mention 2011 as having 2 dominant sides and you'd be right...but that Hawthorn team probably beats anyone of this year's crop pretty comfortably. It's just where we've gotten to as a sport.
 

thetank

Club Legend
Aug 1, 2009
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Flag is the Cats to lose, they are a shoo-in to the prelim. No weaknesses on the list, and a lot of x-factor.

Dees’ forwardline is flakey as hell, will need a miracle to win again.
 

iameviljez

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Oct 20, 2004
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I am not sure why Geelong and Melb are so far ahead odds wise. The years where it was the case before, two teams were clearly dominant. 2011 for instance, Geelong and Collingwood were so far ahead of everyone else (season wise at least) that them being overwhelming favourites makes sense. Its not really the case here? Geelong are playing well, but they could easily have lost a couple of those games, and Melbs last couple of months have been ordinary and a little inconsistent.

Its a little weird to me.
It’s because the challengers are a long way off that. Freo and Brisbane both look brittle; Sydney looks a bit young in places.
 

SuperVolley11

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Jun 2, 2011
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Going in with a couple of men down (Gary Rohan says hi...Dangerfield waves from the back) is not conducive to winning grannies.

I’m not going to defend Rohan with his finals performances because they are clearly bad. Dangerfield on the other hand, I don’t understand why people have been saying this of late.

Averaged just under 25 touches in last years finals series. Averaged over 8 clearances a game. Season clearance average was 6.

2020, he was clearly cooked and unable to play midfield minutes like he would like. Still was able to impact with 4 goals in a prelim.

2019, averaged over 25 touches for the final series.

2017, averaged 27 touches and kicked 7 goals across the 3 games Including a match winning 4 goals against the swans.

2016, Averaged a massive 37 touches.
 

Ricketz

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Aug 2, 2011
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Nobody could have predicted North would be bad? You as a top 4 team play them twice, yet Collingwood who was second last, plays them once. Perplexing? We also play the premiers twice...

Cats are an excellent team and deserve to be favourites. They have definitely been given the easiest fixture imaginable though.

West Coast, North, Saints, Port and Doggies twice. Geesh. You'd wanna finish top 2.
Probably a fair call. But what would you prefer, Cats playing the Pies twice and now 7th on the ladder instead of 3rd?
 

iameviljez

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The Grand Final was the prelim... Cats v Pies

Should of been week after ..that's my point. They were the best two sides.
Nah they weren't. Collingwood finished in the lower reaches of the eight that year and overachieved just to get there - wasn't that the year they won the extra-time final?

Port were probably (just) the second-best side that year, but there was a fair gulf between second and first.
 

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