The premiership race is not wide open

What a dumb take.

We play Richmond once (MCG), Collingwood once (MCG), Sydney once (SCG), Giants once (Canberra). All games against teams who fancy (or ar least did before the season started) themselves finalists in 2022.

As for double ups, thats the luck of the draw. St Kilda already took a game off us, and WCE, Port and Doggies were all tipped to be finalists (and potentially top 4).

How anyone could’ve predicted that is beyond me.

Nobody could have predicted North would be bad? You as a top 4 team play them twice, yet Collingwood who was second last, plays them once. Perplexing? We also play the premiers twice...

Cats are an excellent team and deserve to be favourites. They have definitely been given the easiest fixture imaginable though.

West Coast, North, Saints, Port and Doggies twice. Geesh. You'd wanna finish top 2.
 

samDD

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What a dumb take.

We play Richmond once (MCG), Collingwood once (MCG), Sydney once (SCG), Giants once (Canberra). All games against teams who fancy (or ar least did before the season started) themselves finalists in 2022.

As for double ups, thats the luck of the draw. St Kilda already took a game off us, and WCE, Port and Doggies were all tipped to be finalists (and potentially top 4).

How anyone could’ve predicted that is beyond me.
You think Collingwood fancied themselves as finalists after finishing second bottom last year? This is some embarrassing cope from you mate.
Giants? After two seasons of being nowhere near it? What?

You barely beat Richmond because you sniped Prestia out of the game.
 
You think Collingwood fancied themselves as finalists after finishing second bottom last year? This is some embarrassing cope from you mate.
Giants? After two seasons of being nowhere near it? What?

You barely beat Richmond because you sniped Prestia out of the game.
You guys got lucky only having to play North once
 
Jul 21, 2022
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Everyone is saying the premiership race is wide open. I don't agree with this at all as it seems pretty clear cut who the best side is. The best side is Geelong and everyone else is playing for second. Runners up race on the other hand is pretty open with about six teams a chance to make the grand final. Pisses me off because Geelong have been dominating for 15 years now.

2022 premiers - Geelong.
2022 runners up - Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne or Sydney.

Put your house on the Cats to win the premiership. $3.50 odds with the TAB you won't have to worry about lotto tickets again.
Let’s see…
As I model AFL like a master..
Geelong flag 35% ( so 3.50 represents thin value …)
Spoon is 51% north 49% WCE
I backed WCE at 81$ in January
That was a STEAL
Essendon finals 9000-1
Hawks finals 9600-1
Basically NEITHER club has ANY chance of playing finals
Bet of the round
Saint kilda beat WCE 79% of the time
So easy money on the minus there
Parting thoughts
Sydney are now the MOST likely team to finish 2nd outside of Melbourne so just let that sink in
Flag chances for all combined teams sitting 9th and lower …
Is a whopping 0.9%
Richmond is only 1.9%
So the tigers really have shot them selves in the footy losing 4 games this year by under a goal !
 

HTPunter

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Certainly deserved favourites.

Still one of those teams I wouldn't bet on because can't trust that finals history. Not fussed if they win the flag and I missed out on 3.50 odds because I'd want more.

Do have an extremely good forward line though.
 

samDD

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Cats are as big a certainty as they were in......2008.
They're actually not.
Their team right now is far worse than their 2008 team, and the competition is significantly stronger.

They boxed in Melbourne effectively on their narrow cow paddock a few weeks ago; it won't be the same story when they're forced to play at the MCG in finals.
 

The Swert

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Cats are as big a certainty as they were in......2008.

Do you mean the 2008 when Geelong:
  • were reigning champions
  • had a record 9 All-Australians in their team
  • had the reigning Brownlow medallist (Bartel)
  • had the reigning Players, Coaches and Media MVP (Ablett)
  • had a win-loss record of 21W-1L
  • had the 3rd highest percentage since WW2 of 161.8%.

Yeh...this current team ticks all those boxes.

All I see is a bunch of calf muscles about to go twang!
 
Feb 21, 2006
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Geelong look ominous and a relatively cruisy finish - Port will put up a fight as will Suns up at Metricon, but even if they drop a game it still looks like top spot is sewn up.

Dees have a very interesting run home. With away games against Lions and Freo, and a rematch against the Pies, if they can finish off the season with 5 straight wins then I’m backing them in come finals.
I don't think even the most optimistic Demons supporter thinks we'll win 5 straight heading into September. 3-2 would be a good result.
 

No Quarter

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It's as wide open as the top 8 allows it to be.

It's easy to speak with bias - Geelong have looked pretty damn good lately. Even as a Cats supporter you're inclined to question when they will drop games in the embarrassing fashion that they did over the past few years though have lately looked to shake this off a fair bit better than perhaps they had in the past.

And yep - I think even most Geelong supporters would agree that there is a serious shadow of doubt being cast upon them as we roll in to the finals.

BUT... history does not dictate the future and that can be said for everyone simply.
 
Feb 21, 2006
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I don't think Geelong's history in September comes into it because they've changed their game style this year. The problem was they took a good H&A gameplan that beats poorer sides and tried to run it through the rough and tumble of finals footy. They've tweaked it now and are deserved favourites. I think Melbourne/Freo are the challengers with Sydney the wildcard - Collingwood & Carlton I can't see making it past the semis.
 
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It's a race in five teams for mine who wouldn't surprise me if they won the flag, Melbourne, Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle and Brisbane.
I disagree with the O.P that the Premiership isn't wide open but that's the beauty of this forum.
 

Falcon3518

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Hope the pies or Freo win it. But it’s anybody but Dees at this point, then Cats


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

PerthBoy86

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Theyre good but not clear favourites. Having a great streak but there's no guarantees that'll continue into the finals. Even the 2008 Cats couldn't make the final hurdle, and they were far more dominant than the 2022 Cats. Let's just wait and see. If you're that confident though I would like to see you put at least a geand on the Cats flag.
 
Geelong have all the ducks and drakes in line atm

Fit, strong, organized.

The only thing I can see worrying them is a good, fast side on a hotter than usual GF day.

Who that good, fast side is though I dont know. Certainly isnt Melbourne atm.
 
Apr 20, 2008
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Geelong have all the ducks and drakes in line atm

Fit, strong, organized.

The only thing I can see worrying them is a good, fast side on a hotter than usual GF day.

Who that good, fast side is though I dont know. Certainly isnt Melbourne atm.
Melbourne are still the benchmark. Their football is the best. They are the reigning premiers and until someone knocks them off in a final they should be the favourite.

It’s about this time last year they lifted for the final month.
 
Mar 2, 2015
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Melbourne are the only team who can beat Geelong this September. But the Demons aren't playing as well as last season. Not quite as hungry or focused. Been going through the motions and winning most weeks, but only doing just enough. We've all been waiting for them to flick the switch, but will they? Maybe... Maybe not...

Geelong have improved. A few of their younger players have taken the next step, so there's no real weaknesses. They missed Tom Stewart who was out injured in last year's finals. Jeremy Cameron was battling hamstring injuries at the business end of 2021. Geelong's forward line wasn't half as dangerous as it is now with Cameron & Hawkins working so well together, plus Stengle, Close and Miers buzzing around like flies and Dangerfield contributing (not all beaten up & tired from carrying the midfield load through the home & away games)

All of the other teams are pretenders in 2022. The Lions, Dockers, Pies, Swans, and Blues aren't bad teams. There's a lot to like about them. I just don't think any of them can win the flag. I can't see any of them knocking off both Dees and Cats at the MCG this September. They'll be better in 2023.

It's a weird season. Very even... But only 2 teams who are good enough & have the self-belief to go all the way.
 
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Kobe Gryant

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It's interesting really. For all the flack we cop for being an 'arrogant' supporter base, have you noticed the lack of belief from Geelong supporters in this thread? The only one's calling us a sure thing are opposition supporters.

We're good, no doubt. Maybe even great....

...but better sides than the '22 Cats have faulted in September. For mine, Melbourne are still the favourites until they're kicked out. Still believe they've got a gear to go too and the home and away season is nothing more than lip service for them.

Cats the obvious challenger, Freo, and then Sydney as the dark horse.

Don't trust Brisbane. They're Geelong of a decade ago minus the dynasty in the rear view mirror.

Collingwood and Carlton both have the potential to beat anyone in September, particularly if it's at the MCG. You wouldn't want to be playing them especially with that crowd. Probably a prelim at best purely due to youth.

Rest are just making up the numbers.
 
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