The Premiership Standard - 100pts for, 86 pts against

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Freomaniac

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Quoting posts made two years ago and then using new evidence to prove them wrong is a bit of 'non bis in idem' , aka poor form.
No its not. If it did come down to the Premiership standard then the crows should of won the 2017 GF as they were averaging 110 points a game and conceding 80. Again.... Richmond averaged 90.5 points a game conceding 76.5
 

Freomaniac

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Err...no he is not.

Until this year he has done nothing but plunder lists in pursuit of a flag, until there is no hope left and then he up's stumps. UNtill this last year refused to play kids.

He is a megalomaniac in sheeps clothing.
um.... Go look at what freo got in the 2011 draft....

Sheridan, Crozier, Neale, Sutcliffe, Zac Dawson and Spurr.

Neale and Sutcliffe both came from the 2011 draft and both played in the 2013 GF as 20 year olds
 

Rance2Mewtwo

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No its not. If it did come down to the Premiership standard then the crows should of won the 2017 GF as they were averaging 110 points a game and conceding 80. Again.... Richmond averaged 90.5 points a game conceding 76.5
But if you look at the last 2 months of the season, Richmond was averaging about 110 points a game and their opposition about 60 points a game.

I think form come finals time is more accurate than a season average.
 

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Strapping Young Lad

previously Messenger
Apr 19, 2006
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In the second half of 2017, Hawthorn were second only to the Crows for total score in Home and Away games. Averaging 94.6 pts a game for, and 79.5 pts against.

Add Cryil, Birchall, Stratton and Frawley to the side with further improvement from Burton, Glass, Hardwick, O’Brien, O’Meara and Sicily and I’m positive that many opppsotion fans will agree that Hawthorn can hit the magic numbers in 2018. :D
 

Carringbush2010

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So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast -
105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST



They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?
You could add 2011 for the runner up

For 113 against 72
 

Carringbush2010

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Freo are still 23 points better than their opponents though, so what the big deal if they don't get the magical 100, it's not bloody cricket. The defend well enough to not have to score so much. They will finish top, and win straight through to the GF, once there this sort of stuff won't matter. I'm guessing the argument would be, they can only score 90 against say the Hawks who would probably score over 100, but when was the last time a team scored more than 100 against Freo??
Round 23 against essendon 107 v 92
Round 22 richmond 155
Round 21 sydney 143
Round 18 hawthorn 100
Round 12 brisbane 121
Round 11 collingwood 105
 

Lsta062

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Melbourne are the only team that meet this standard right now, with Richmond dipping below the 100 point average after scoring 58 and 83 in the last two games. West Coast must have also dipped after scoring 57 points against Sydney.
 

Ron The Bear

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We might as well not even be talking about this standard that has been shown up as hogwash two years in a row. Australian rules football has evolved.
Things change. In the late 70's someone found that no horse had won the Kentucky Derby with a dosage index (ratio of speed:stamina in its breeding) above 4.00. This "law" was regarded as a punting holy grail... until winners started arriving with dosages as high as 6.02. American breeders' modern preference for sprinting stallions has changed the nature of the game.
 

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Janus

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I'd say the paradigm should now be a percentage - i.e. you should concede only 86% or less of the points you score to be premiership standard.

Premiership Standard

Richmond - 74%
Melbourne - 76.6%
West Coast - 77.4%
Geelong - 79.2%
Sydney - 79.5%
Collingwood - 84.3%
North Melbourne - 84.6%

Non-Premiership Standard

Port Adelaide - 87.9%
GWS - 89.3%
Hawthorn - 90.4%
Adelaide - 99.6%
Essendon - 110.9%
Fremantle 112.8%
Brisbane 127.1%
Western Bulldogs 136.8%
St Kilda 141.2%
Gold Coast 155.1%
Carlton 161.5%

Looks about right to me at this stage of the season.
 

Freomaniac

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So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast -
105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST



They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?
So we gonna do this 100 points for and 86 points against Tough Man Tony Abbott bull*** tactics again?



Now lets look at the 2018 top 8 sides shall we?

1 Richmond: 97.4 points FOR, 71.54 points AGAINST.
2. West Coast: 91.45 points FOR, 75.31 points AGAINST
3 Collingwood: 93.00 points FOR, 77.22 points AGAINST
4 Hawthorn: 89.63 points FOR, 74.63 points AGAINST
5. Melbourne: 104.50 points FOR, 79.50 Points AGAINST
6: Sydney: 82.81 Points FOR, 75.63 Points AGAINST
7 Western Sydney: 86.27 points FOR, 75.63 Points AGAINST
8 Geelong: 92.95 points FOR, 70.63 points AGAINST


Now going by this standard that means the 5th placed Melbourne demons are "Premiership" Standard.


Had Richmond scored another 66 points, they would of averaged 100 points for 71 against.

Its scary how similar the defence is as all but 2 teams average between 70-75 points a game. While Magpies concede 77 points and Melbourne concede 79.5 points a game.

As far as offense, Demons are the number 1 by a bloody big margin with exactly 104.5 points a game. Take away the 2 NSW sides with swans averaging 2 points a game and GWS averaging 86 points game, most sides are averaging between 89-97 points a game.

This time last year, Richmond won the flag averaging exactly 90.5 points a game and 76.5 points a game. They are slightly stronger. Adding one goal more and conceding 1 goal less a game.
 

Freomaniac

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Lyon is a dour coach, to him it's trench warfare, what will be conflicting to his ultimate battle plan is he possesses the best and most exciting player in the AFL. He can't hold him back, in some ways he's caught between a rock and a hard place with Fyfe. I doubt you can 'Lyonise" Nat Fyfe, so it is Ross Lyon who has to adapt in 2015, Fyfe is not going to play "smotherball". To beat Hawthorn or any of the other top three in a Grand Final his team will need to score 14 maybe 15 goals, it's not easy watching Lyon's teams play the game like a couple of boa constrictors. Fyfe unleashed is still the key to Freo, so far no one else knows how to shut that door tight. No matter how many plaudits Lyon receives for his coaching, he still has no cigar, he still plays it ugly, but he has a diamond in the pack and that could very well be the "Ace" he needs to win this year.
Are you on another drunken tirade about Woss Lyins sexual Harassment tactics again?
 

Freomaniac

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Err...no he is not.

Until this year he has done nothing but plunder lists in pursuit of a flag, until there is no hope left and then he up's stumps. UNtill this last year refused to play kids.

He is a megalomaniac in sheeps clothing.
Ross Lyon has given debut games of 15 players in the last 2 seasons. 8 debuts in 2018. 7 in 2017
 

Gavin Excell

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I'd say the paradigm should now be a percentage - i.e. you should concede only 86% or less of the points you score to be premiership standard.

Premiership Standard

Richmond - 74%
Melbourne - 76.6%
West Coast - 77.4%
Geelong - 79.2%
Sydney - 79.5%
Collingwood - 84.3%
North Melbourne - 84.6%

Non-Premiership Standard

Port Adelaide - 87.9%
GWS - 89.3%
Hawthorn - 90.4%
Adelaide - 99.6%
Essendon - 110.9%
Fremantle 112.8%
Brisbane 127.1%
Western Bulldogs 136.8%
St Kilda 141.2%
Gold Coast 155.1%
Carlton 161.5%

Looks about right to me at this stage of the season.
Can you run this again to update for end of season
 

Freomaniac

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So we gonna do this 100 points for and 86 points against Tough Man Tony Abbott bull*** tactics again?



Now lets look at the 2018 top 8 sides shall we?

1 Richmond: 97.4 points FOR, 71.54 points AGAINST.
2. West Coast: 91.45 points FOR, 75.31 points AGAINST
3 Collingwood: 93.00 points FOR, 77.22 points AGAINST
4 Hawthorn: 89.63 points FOR, 74.63 points AGAINST
5. Melbourne: 104.50 points FOR, 79.50 Points AGAINST
6: Sydney: 82.81 Points FOR, 75.63 Points AGAINST
7 Western Sydney: 86.27 points FOR, 75.63 Points AGAINST
8 Geelong: 92.95 points FOR, 70.63 points AGAINST


Now going by this standard that means the 5th placed Melbourne demons are "Premiership" Standard.


Had Richmond scored another 66 points, they would of averaged 100 points for 71 against.

Its scary how similar the defence is as all but 2 teams average between 70-75 points a game. While Magpies concede 77 points and Melbourne concede 79.5 points a game.

As far as offense, Demons are the number 1 by a bloody big margin with exactly 104.5 points a game. Take away the 2 NSW sides with swans averaging 2 points a game and GWS averaging 86 points game, most sides are averaging between 89-97 points a game.

This time last year, Richmond won the flag averaging exactly 90.5 points a game and 76.5 points a game. They are slightly stronger. Adding one goal more and conceding 1 goal less a game.
west coast are up by 63 points vs the high scoring demons. Collingwood made the GF beating Richmond.

As it stands it will be west coast who are averaging 91 points a game and conceding 75 points a game. Collingwood is averaging 93 points a game, conceding 77 points a game.

Scary thing is both teams are like Richmond of 2017 that averaged 90 points a game, conceding 76 points a game.
 

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