The Premiership Standard - 100pts for, 86 pts against

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Freomaniac

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So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast -
105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST



They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?
Now for the 2019 Edition ladies and Gentleman.....

Geelong: 90.18 points FOR, 66.45 points AGAINST
Brisbane: 91.09 points FOR, 77 points AGAINST
Richmond: 86 Points FOR, 75.63 points AGAINST
Collingwood: 85.68 points FOR, 72.77 points AGAINST.

West coast: 86.45 points FOR, 76.86 points AGAINST
Greater Western Sydney: 87.54 points FOR, 75.86 Points AGAINST
Western Bulldogs: 88.22 points FOR, 82.27 points AGAINST
Essendon: 77.36 points FOR, 81.09 Points AGAINST



Not one team has averaged 100 points a game in Attack. 2 teams are lucky to get over the 90 points a game in attack. Take away essendon, each side at 77 points a game, Each side is averaging between 85-91 points per game.

On the other hand, each side has conceded less than 86 points a game. Geelong is the undisputed number 1 defensive side conceding 66 points a game. Thats either 9.12.66 or 10.6.66 they concede. the rest average between 76-82 points per game.

So you got a bunch of sides that struggle to score and yet can either defend well or face teams that struggle to attack. In which results in a low scoring game. Sounds like your average Ross Lyon coached side to me!
 

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Damon_3388

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Now for the 2019 Edition ladies and Gentleman.....

Geelong: 90.18 points FOR, 66.45 points AGAINST
Brisbane: 91.09 points FOR, 77 points AGAINST
Richmond: 86 Points FOR, 75.63 points AGAINST
Collingwood: 85.68 points FOR, 72.77 points AGAINST.

West coast: 86.45 points FOR, 76.86 points AGAINST
Greater Western Sydney: 87.54 points FOR, 75.86 Points AGAINST
Western Bulldogs: 88.22 points FOR, 82.27 points AGAINST
Essendon: 77.36 points FOR, 81.09 Points AGAINST



Not one team has averaged 100 points a game in Attack. 2 teams are lucky to get over the 90 points a game in attack. Take away essendon, each side at 77 points a game, Each side is averaging between 85-91 points per game.

On the other hand, each side has conceded less than 86 points a game. Geelong is the undisputed number 1 defensive side conceding 66 points a game. Thats either 9.12.66 or 10.6.66 they concede. the rest average between 76-82 points per game.

So you got a bunch of sides that struggle to score and yet can either defend well or face teams that struggle to attack. In which results in a low scoring game. Sounds like your average Ross Lyon coached side to me!
Should the thread be re-named 'The Premiership Standard - A Percentage of 116.28% (Equivalent to 100 for, 86 against)'?
 

Freomaniac

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Lyon is a dour coach, to him it's trench warfare, what will be conflicting to his ultimate battle plan is he possesses the best and most exciting player in the AFL. He can't hold him back, in some ways he's caught between a rock and a hard place with Fyfe. I doubt you can 'Lyonise" Nat Fyfe, so it is Ross Lyon who has to adapt in 2015, Fyfe is not going to play "smotherball". To beat Hawthorn or any of the other top three in a Grand Final his team will need to score 14 maybe 15 goals, it's not easy watching Lyon's teams play the game like a couple of boa constrictors. Fyfe unleashed is still the key to Freo, so far no one else knows how to shut that door tight. No matter how many plaudits Lyon receives for his coaching, he still has no cigar, he still plays it ugly, but he has a diamond in the pack and that could very well be the "Ace" he needs to win this year.
your thoughts on the current 8 this season?

no side is averaging 100 points per game in attack
 

Chaisa

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Did the Bulldogs in 2016, Richmond in 2017 or West Coast in 2018 meet the standard?
Not offensively, defensively yes (though I think West Coast might meet the standard it was standardised for the fewer points scored in 2018)

The problem with this "standard" is that while it made sense 10 years ago, scores are too low for it to be valid. You have to be very attacking to reach the 100 point per game mark in the modern era but you can get away with only having a moderate defence to meet this standard.

IMO a better tool might be 90pts for, 75pts against.
 

Chaisa

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FWIW to meet the Premiership Standard you need to score over 2,200 points per season and under 1,892 points per season.

Using this season as an example, no club goes close to meeting the offensive criteria but only Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda and Carlton fail to meet the defensive criteria.

Standardising it though to assume a season where the average team scores 93 points per game (as is what the "Premiership Standard" assumes)

Teams that meet the offensive criteria:

Brisbane Lions (would have scored 2,320 points assuming a 93 PPG season)
Geelong (2,306)
Western Bulldogs (2,256)
Greater Western Sydney (2,239)
West Coast (2,211)

Richmond manage 2,199 assuming a 93 PPG season

Teams that meet the defensive criteira:

Geelong (would have conceded 1,700 points assuming a 93 PPG season)
Collingwood (1,861)
Hawthorn (1,862)

So only Geelong meet both criteria the "Premiership Standard" by 2019 standards.
 

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Chaisa

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Using the "7 up/7 fewer" rule throughout the last 20 years, no Premiers since North in 99 have conceded less than 7 PPG fewer than the league average.

In contrast you've had all of Sydney 05, Dogs 16 and Richmond 17 miss the 7 up rule (and in some cases by quite a margin!), so I think the bottom line is that an above average defence is more of a prerequisite towards winning flags than an above average attack.
 

JackFlash

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your thoughts on the current 8 this season?

no side is averaging 100 points per game in attack
The 6 6 6 hasn't really worked the way the AFL were hoping. It's back to the drawing board on that one and with it the end of any team picking up Ross Lyon as coach.
 

Freomaniac

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The 6 6 6 hasn't really worked the way the AFL were hoping. It's back to the drawing board on that one and with it the end of any team picking up Ross Lyon as coach.
Ironic this thread was started as an anti Ross Lyon thread.

Also Ironic they brought the 666 rule to stop ross lyons rolling maul where everyone is on or behind the ball.

You really cant let ross lyon go can you? He is gone and is never coming back lol

I have no animosity towards ross lyon. Some saints fans still do after 8 years.

I have this stupid feeling Ross Lyon will coach a 3rd AFL side.
 

Freomaniac

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Did the Bulldogs in 2016, Richmond in 2017 or West Coast in 2018 meet the standard?
As the swan supporter posted, all 3 sides made the standard in a defensive way. Offense, nope.

Had the crows won the flag in 2017, they would of been a "premiership" standard side. averging 110 points in attack, conceding 80 points in defence


FWIW to meet the Premiership Standard you need to score over 2,200 points per season and under 1,892 points per season.

Using this season as an example, no club goes close to meeting the offensive criteria but only Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda and Carlton fail to meet the defensive criteria.

Standardising it though to assume a season where the average team scores 93 points per game (as is what the "Premiership Standard" assumes)

Teams that meet the offensive criteria:

Brisbane Lions (would have scored 2,320 points assuming a 93 PPG season)
Geelong (2,306)
Western Bulldogs (2,256)
Greater Western Sydney (2,239)
West Coast (2,211)

Richmond manage 2,199 assuming a 93 PPG season

Teams that meet the defensive criteira:

Geelong (would have conceded 1,700 points assuming a 93 PPG season)
Collingwood (1,861)
Hawthorn (1,862)

So only Geelong meet both criteria the "Premiership Standard" by 2019 standards.
what do you mean Brisbane scored 2320 points in 22 games? they were the only side to score over 2000 points.

Whats this crap about the other 3 sides scoring 2200 points each?
 

Freomaniac

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Not offensively, defensively yes (though I think West Coast might meet the standard it was standardised for the fewer points scored in 2018)

The problem with this "standard" is that while it made sense 10 years ago, scores are too low for it to be valid. You have to be very attacking to reach the 100 point per game mark in the modern era but you can get away with only having a moderate defence to meet this standard.

IMO a better tool might be 90pts for, 75pts against.
Interesting observation.....

90 divide by 75 is 1.2. So a % of 120 sounds about right.

Richmond averaged 90.5 points a game and 76.5 points a game in the regular season of 2017.
 

Freomaniac

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Now for the 2019 Edition ladies and Gentleman.....

Geelong: 90.18 points FOR, 66.45 points AGAINST
Brisbane: 91.09 points FOR, 77 points AGAINST
Richmond: 86 Points FOR, 75.63 points AGAINST
Collingwood: 85.68 points FOR, 72.77 points AGAINST.

West coast: 86.45 points FOR, 76.86 points AGAINST
Greater Western Sydney: 87.54 points FOR, 75.86 Points AGAINST
Western Bulldogs: 88.22 points FOR, 82.27 points AGAINST
Essendon: 77.36 points FOR, 81.09 Points AGAINST



Not one team has averaged 100 points a game in Attack. 2 teams are lucky to get over the 90 points a game in attack. Take away essendon, each side at 77 points a game, Each side is averaging between 85-91 points per game.

On the other hand, each side has conceded less than 86 points a game. Geelong is the undisputed number 1 defensive side conceding 66 points a game. Thats either 9.12.66 or 10.6.66 they concede. the rest average between 76-82 points per game.

So you got a bunch of sides that struggle to score and yet can either defend well or face teams that struggle to attack. In which results in a low scoring game. Sounds like your average Ross Lyon coached side to me!
Toump Ass your thoughts on this?
 

JackFlash

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Ironic this thread was started as an anti Ross Lyon thread.

Also Ironic they brought the 666 rule to stop ross lyons rolling maul where everyone is on or behind the ball.

You really cant let ross lyon go can you? He is gone and is never coming back lol

I have no animosity towards ross lyon. Some saints fans still do after 8 years.

I have this stupid feeling Ross Lyon will coach a 3rd AFL side.
And that 3rd AFL side will sack him within two years! He's done, he's toast, he's history, the trophy cabinet is bare, he's an ex -coach!
 
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Chaisa

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As the swan supporter posted, all 3 sides made the standard in a defensive way. Offense, nope.

Had the crows won the flag in 2017, they would of been a "premiership" standard side. averging 110 points in attack, conceding 80 points in defence




what do you mean Brisbane scored 2320 points in 22 games? they were the only side to score over 2000 points.

Whats this crap about the other 3 sides scoring 2200 points each?
I adjusted it to assume that the AFL average was 93 points per game rather than 80 (which is the actual figure) to get a grasp of who would meet the Premiership Standard this season. Though I think working out who managed to score 7 points more per game and conceded 7 fewer is a better way to understand it rather than adjusting it.
 

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