The Premiership Standard - 100pts for, 86 pts against

[ManWithNoName]

So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast - 105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST


They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?

 

[Lost_Deputy]

So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast - 105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST


They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?

Clearly he's not. Was on track but it's dropped. It's not over yet

 

[dogs105]

So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast - 105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST


They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?

Statistics prove that teams which kick a lot of goals, and don't concede many are better than other teams. Who'd have thunk it?



Interesting though really.

 

[NathanMX]

Lyon is good at what he does no doubt, but you have to be great to be more then second best. The coaches that have beaten his teams in the big games have been Malthouse,Thompson and Clarkson so perhaps his game plan would work against less experienced coaches but the best always have an Ace up their sleeves.

 

[The Swert]

So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Should be 13 of the last 15.

Sydney 2005 - 86 for and 74 against.

 

[Maddo11]

Should be 13 of the last 15.

Sydney 2005 - 86 for and 74 against.

First thing that popped into my head, there's no way the 05 swans kicked 100 more than 3 - 4 times that year

 

[Underarm]

I don't think this rules out Fremantle. Sydney had similar for/against in 2005. However they haven't dominated a team since round 8 (north Melbourne), Lost to Richmond which no one saw coming, and then almost lost to 18th Gold Coast a week later. Restricting the scoring of the opposition is good, but if you can't kick a winning score yourself you leave little room for error.

Hawthorn are still the front runners in the competition.

 

[clogged]

Sydney in 2005 were a once off. They're not the standard you aim for, they're an anomaly that probably won't be repeated in years.

It's funny that 86 points against is the high point for premiership defences. For most teams these days that would be a match losing score.

Freo barely average better than that as an offensive score. I would love to see Freo's scoring improve, but I don't see it so long as plodders and hacks like Suban and De Boer are continually up for selection.

 

[WATiger86]

The squiggle has been telling us this for years..... NEXT!

 

[MIKE85]

Freo are still 23 points better than their opponents though, so what the big deal if they don't get the magical 100, it's not bloody cricket. The defend well enough to not have to score so much. They will finish top, and win straight through to the GF, once there this sort of stuff won't matter. I'm guessing the argument would be, they can only score 90 against say the Hawks who would probably score over 100, but when was the last time a team scored more than 100 against Freo??

 

[Darcy 2 Fyfe]

Once everyone's played 17 teams we will see as some have had far tougher runs so far which will be equalized by then. If we do make it to the GF I reckon our opponent will be able to take it easy on us due to our scoring deficiencies.

 

[Fyfetheknife]

silly stat. 86 against? Pretty specific number.

 

[Darcy 2 Fyfe]

silly stat. 86 against? Pretty specific number.

So we're 21.5 pts ahead of the defensive curve and only 12.6 behind the attack curve. So we will win by 8.9 pts against the runner up! Yes.........yes......yes, we're gonna win the lot! It's our year! You beauty!

 

[Lensen]

Well, if this statistical correlation can be ruled out then Fremantle are definitely out of the running under one I've kept an eye on for years which says "you can't win the flag without a previous premiership player in your side".

Last side to do it was North in '96. Below are (off the top of my head, so there may be additionals as well) the previous flag players for each side
97: Jarman
98: many from 97
99: many from 96
00: Fletcher
01: Pike
02: many from 01
03: many from 01/02
04: Wanganeen
05: Ball
06: Banfield
07: Mooney
08: Dew
09: many from 07
10: Jolly
11: many from 07/09
12: Goodes
13: many from 08
14: many from 08/13

Only teams with flag players currently on their list are: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, COllingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast

Fremantle, Richmond, Bulldogs have no one and Port only have Cornes who has retired

 

[Fyfetheknife]

Well, if this statistical correlation can be ruled out then Fremantle are definitely out of the running under one I've kept an eye on for years which says "you can't win the flag without a previous premiership player in your side".

Last side to do it was North in '96. Below are (off the top of my head, so there may be additionals as well) the previous flag players for each side
97: Jarman
98: many from 97
99: many from 96
00: Fletcher
01: Pike
02: many from 01
03: many from 01/02
04: Wanganeen
05: Ball
06: Banfield
07: Mooney
08: Dew
09: many from 07
10: Jolly
11: many from 07/09
12: Goodes
13: many from 08
14: many from 08/13

Only teams with flag players currently on their list are: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, COllingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast

Fremantle, Richmond, Bulldogs have no one and Port only have Cornes who has retired

So if Lenny Hayes' kick to Milne in 2010 doesn't do crazy s**t, the saints win, and Dawson gets a premiership medal, suddenly freo are in contention? Interesting stat though.

 

[MIKE85]

So if Lenny Hayes' kick to Milne in 2010 doesn't do crazy s**t, the saints win, and Dawson gets a premiership medal, suddenly freo are in contention? Interesting stat though.

Ross might not be at Freo had that happened.

 

[Fyfetheknife]

Ross might not be at Freo had that happened.

Fair point. If you think about, one small thing like that could change so much.

 

[Darcy 2 Fyfe]

My statistical analysis tells me that's stats can be used to send the message you want to deliver. The best once are from the medical experts who like to say 45% of males die from x, 37% from y, 42% from z, 39% from a, 15% from b and the other 237.6% live a long and healthy life.

 

[MIKE85]

Fair point. If you think about, one small thing like that could change so much.

He may still have left, if the Saints weren't going to pay him what wanted/needed. I just wonder had they won it in 2010, would they have tried to sign him up for a few more years straight away. Never know I guess.

 

[master bate]

I think part of Freo and Ross Lyon's problems are that his teams are too disciplined, too good and too structured. They win too many games playing his brand of footy and with the same players. So there's little experimentation and learning from mistakes.

If you're always winning or getting close to the best opposition with your standard set up there's not a lot of reasons to change.

If I was a Freo fan I wouldn't mind a few soft first half performances to set up higher scoring games to discover if the players can do it when required.

Similarly I'd be hoping Ross tries a few more blokes than the usual suspects. Mitch Morton was the most unlikely of premiership heroes for Sydney. Freo might have a similar player.

 

[Furn2]

I believe that 2007 is the only year recently that the premiers didnt win a final the previous year.

Meaning only the Swans, Port, North and Hawks can win it.

Combined that with the 100-86 point rule you have your likely premier.

Freo will need to break both these historical "rules" to win this year.

 

[scarecrow2k1]

Interesting that all those in contention (i also checked Richmond out of curiosity -78 per game against) make the 'against ' criteria, whereas points for seems to be the stumbling block

 

[Plugger_87]

Wheres Richmonds stats?? Stand up and take notice people they are ahead of Collingwood IMO

 

[JackFlash]

Lyon is a dour coach, to him it's trench warfare, what will be conflicting to his ultimate battle plan is he possesses the best and most exciting player in the AFL. He can't hold him back, in some ways he's caught between a rock and a hard place with Fyfe. I doubt you can 'Lyonise" Nat Fyfe, so it is Ross Lyon who has to adapt in 2015, Fyfe is not going to play "smotherball". To beat Hawthorn or any of the other top three in a Grand Final his team will need to score 14 maybe 15 goals, it's not easy watching Lyon's teams play the game like a couple of boa constrictors. Fyfe unleashed is still the key to Freo, so far no one else knows how to shut that door tight. No matter how many plaudits Lyon receives for his coaching, he still has no cigar, he still plays it ugly, but he has a diamond in the pack and that could very well be the "Ace" he needs to win this year.

 

[J_Moore]

Sydney in 2005 were a once off. They're not the standard you aim for, they're an anomaly that probably won't be repeated in years.

What was the Sydney f/a in 2006? can't have been much higher, and they lost that flag by a point.

A few low-scoring teams (Sydney & St Kilda) have come within a bees dick of winning the flag on multiple occasions in this period. It's not like the gameplan is always found out in grand finals.