Resource The Punters Thread

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Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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This round was absolutely f***** brutal. I lost 2 bets by 1 point and another two bets in the last minute of the game.

Giants were leading by 32 or 33 points at HT only for them not to cover the -36.5 line.

Suns came back in the second half only to fall 1 point shy of covering the +47.5 line.

Was also on Richmond 1-39 and the Under 172.5 and after both bets looked like easy winners all game there’s 11 goals kicked in the final quarter (most by Richmond) to kill both bets.

Added to that I won on the Eagles -7.5 (8 points the difference in the derby) and I had U170.5 and the game finished on 170.

In all my years of gambling I’ve never seen a raft of results like that. I had 1k each on all those bets as well. Luckily I was 2k up on the Bulldogs and Swans before that crap unfolded.
 

Elite Crow

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30k Posts 10k Posts TheBrownDog
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This round was absolutely f***** brutal. I lost 2 bets by 1 point and another two bets in the last minute of the game.

Giants were leading by 32 or 33 points at HT only for them not to cover the -36.5 line.

Suns came back in the second half only to fall 1 point shy of covering the +47.5 line.

Was also on Richmond 1-39 and the Under 172.5 and after both bets looked like easy winners all game there’s 11 goals kicked in the final quarter (most by Richmond) to kill both bets.

Added to that I won on the Eagles -7.5 (8 points the difference in the derby) and I had U170.5 and the game finished on 170.

In all my years of gambling I’ve never seen a raft of results like that. I had 1k each on all those bets as well. Luckily I was 2k up on the Bulldogs and Swans before that crap unfolded.
Ouch, we got stung on the Richmond game as well, but only small fry.

As for this weeks games, Gold Coast is over $4 against Western Bulldogs and the line is 28.5. Am I missing something because those odds look crazy?
 

Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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Ouch, we got stung on the Richmond game as well, but only small fry.

As for this weeks games, Gold Coast is over $4 against Western Bulldogs and the line is 28.5. Am I missing something because those odds look crazy?

Agreed but only caveat is how much is all the travel the Suns doing affecting them? On the plus side they’ve been blown out by us at AO and the Eagles at Optus but that’s no crime. Dogs are a middle tier team at best so no reason Suns don’t stay right in it let alone win.
 

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Elite Crow

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30k Posts 10k Posts TheBrownDog
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Agreed but only caveat is how much is all the travel the Suns doing affecting them? On the plus side they’ve been blown out by us at AO and the Eagles at Optus but that’s no crime. Dogs are a middle tier team at best so no reason Suns don’t stay right in it let alone win.
Easton Wood and Redpath ruled out
 

Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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I think they’re some pretty ridiculous lines this week to be honest. I could be way off but this round looks really good to me and I don’t understand most of these lines.
 

Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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Now 32.5 on sb.

Is it just me, or does GC +32.5 make sense on that one?

Edit: May and Lynch out - OK, maybe...

Lynch hasn’t done much lately but May is the bigger out. But like in the Swans v Cats game and the Crows v Swans game injuries create great line value. Bit bus at the moment to look into the game but off the top of my head it’s a pretty reasonable bet and that line will probably keep going up.
 

Glenny83

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The line on the Cats v GWS started at -10.5 Cats Monday. Now -16.5 with Cameron and Lids out. Dangerfield has been laboring with a calf knock he got in pre-season and Selwood had been sore but is through it, coming from Chris Scott on Monday. Hindsight I’d take the -10.5 but -16.5 shouldn’t change with Ablett pretty much certain not to be playing.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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The line on the Cats v GWS started at -10.5 Cats Monday. Now -16.5 with Cameron and Lids out. Dangerfield has been laboring with a calf knock he got in pre-season and Selwood had been sore but is through it, coming from Chris Scott on Monday. Hindsight I’d take the -10.5 but -16.5 shouldn’t change with Ablett pretty much certain not to be playing.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

We’ve already seen two games recently where a line has moved dramatically with the news of a few injured players being out.

Crows +15.5 to +26.5

Sydney +4.5 to +15.5

What was the result of both these games? The team with the inflated line not only covered but won.

Are Geelong a very good team? Not right now they aren’t. I’ll look deeper into this game 2moro but I expect to stick to the principle of betting the inflated line.

Cameron is really overrated and hasn’t been very good and Deledio is very replaceable. No way are these two worth a 6/7 point line move.

I don’t rate GWS that much but Geelong aren’t exactly flying either.
 

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Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
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Might have a nibble on us for the flag....

7D8A4126-C29F-44FE-BBC7-CD8D4E87F60D.jpeg
 
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Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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Must always be careful about overreacting to a bad loss or a good win...but....Giants are terrible and get way too much respect at the line every week. Reckon we’ll belt the s**t out of them at home this week.

The look ahead line was -21.5 but reckon that’ll get bigger because we got flogged and everyone will be pounding us thinking we’ll bounce back. Regardless I think I’ll be on us at the line. Will have to see what thenline is of course but wouldn’t surprise of it was -25 to -33 or thereabouts. Think we’ll do a number on them even if we don’t get players back. Probably would pay to jump on this line early as it’ll get bet up and keep getting bet up.
 

Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
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I've got a horse going around tomorrow, he won last start, I did try and post before the race but the thread wasn't on page 1 and I was drunk already. Tune in at 11:00 if you're interested, my horse isn't going to be the tip.

How did your horse go?
 

arrowman

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Must always be careful about overreacting to a bad loss or a good win...but....Giants are terrible and get way too much respect at the line every week. Reckon we’ll belt the s**t out of them at home this week.

The look ahead line was -21.5 but reckon that’ll get bigger because we got flogged and everyone will be pounding us thinking we’ll bounce back. Regardless I think I’ll be on us at the line. Will have to see what thenline is of course but wouldn’t surprise of it was -25 to -33 or thereabouts. Think we’ll do a number on them even if we don’t get players back. Probably would pay to jump on this line early as it’ll get bet up and keep getting bet up.
Good tip, thanks. Got -18.5 on sb.

Edit: And a few hours later, it's 22.5
 
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