Resource The Punters Thread

[I Lost My Keays]

 

[WheresGroomgone]

I have become supremely optimistic this season and have placed the following;
Wayne Milera 34/1 to snare the rising star
Eddie Betts 6/1 to make AA
AFC Premiership 34/1
Tex coleman 11/1
SANFL Crows Premiers 9/1
Crows over NM $2:60

I can't reveal how much I have invested incase my wife has secret cyber hacking skills but if 1 or 2 come off I will be happy. Happy punting team.

I think the multis are the go I missed out on a nice return in the dying minutes when Freeo kicked those two super goals against those gentleman from Geelong, the games proceeding were reasonably easy to pick although the Collingwood over WB was helpful!

 

[Simmo28]

View attachment 225899

Newcastle to beat Raiders


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[I Lost My Keays]

Newcastle to beat Raiders


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We will see

 

[Infra Ted]

All ears (or in this case - eyes)

In the multi making spirit, here is mine:

Richmond
GWS line (-8.5)
GC
Adelaide
Port
WC 40+
Hawks

@ $21.03

Not crazy out there but worth a lazy tenner.

 

[Infra Ted]

Cheers mate yep I got on at $9.00 and got a matching bonus bet.

Nice, Where'd you find $9 odds?

 

[Pdub]

Got a text from sportsbet today saying if you put a bet on for the GF winner of over $25 you get a $5 bonus bet for every time that team wins until round 12. A $25 bet on the crows to win the flag would get you $775.00, but given how hard our first 8 weeks are, we're probably not great for this bet. Need to work out which club has the easiest first 12 weeks. Who will be on top of the ladder in round 12.

 

[DD#23]

In the multi making spirit, here is mine:

Richmond
GWS line (-8.5)
GC
Adelaide
Port
WC 40+
Hawks

@ $21.03

Not crazy out there but worth a lazy tenner.

can I make a bet with you that they'll all get up except Port?

 

[WheresGroomgone]

Nice, Where'd you find $9 odds?

That was from Lad brokes but since gone to $6:50

 

[Rotayjay]

Don't spend all your winnings at once [emoji52]

I also have a $10 free 'bonus bet' for West Coast to win the flag at odds of 10/1. I know that they are hoping I will eventually gamble away my winnings, so I believe a few tens of dollars per year is enough. I'm by no means a punter.

 

[Samcro24]

With R1 only a week away, I've noticed more frequent talk about all the odds etc in a few different threads.

Thought it might be useful to give it its own thread. Mods feel free to move or merge as you see fit.

Whilst I don't generally punt, I love messing around with odds and combo's.

So to get things started for R1 I like the multi of Port and WCE both by 39.5. Currently at a pretty tasty 3.30 given both their opponents are young and will be underdone thanks to NAB 2 cancelled.

For the brave hearts 9 winners as follows is paying just under $50

Richmond
GCS
GWS
Crows
Pies
Dogs
Power
WCE
Hawks

Happy punting and good luck !!!

I'm taking the same multi, except I'm going Melbourne for value, and omitting the unbackable eagles. 83/1.

 

[Simmo28]

I also have a $10 free 'bonus bet' for West Coast to win the flag at odds of 10/1. I know that they are hoping I will eventually gamble away my winnings, so I believe a few tens of dollars per year is enough. I'm by no means a punter.

Just messin mate, you have bet $10 more than I have.


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[azza77]

What im looking at for Round 1

- Really want to get on the Crows 1-39 at 3.30. Regardless if im playing it safe I may go for Crows +25.5 which is paying around 1.50
- Hawks 1-39 at $3 is so, so, so juicy. Again, I might put down 1 punt and 1 smart bet, but Hawks to win outright is paying very well at 1.60
- Port and Suns to both win at 1.22 is a handy multi booster.
- The one game that has me stuck is Dogs vs Freo. I want to tip the dogs with their run and carry at Etihad, but theyve looked a little off this NAB and im half expecting the experience and discipline of a hardened Freo side to get over the line in the end. Very unsure here.

Will also be betting on a win for the Crows SANFL side when the odds come out. With the amount of AFL players in our round 1 side I think we are a very good chance, even if it is against the reigning premiers.

Im also seriously looking at Demons to upset GWS, with no Cameron and no McCarthy, theyre lacking a few genuine KPFs.

 

[Samcro24]

What im looking at for Round 1

- Really want to get on the Crows 1-39 at 3.30. Regardless if im playing it safe I may go for Crows +25.5 which is paying around 1.50
- Hawks 1-39 at $3 is so, so, so juicy. Again, I might put down 1 punt and 1 smart bet, but Hawks to win outright is paying very well at 1.60
- Port and Suns to both win at 1.22 is a handy multi booster.
- The one game that has me stuck is Dogs vs Freo. I want to tip the dogs with their run and carry at Etihad, but theyve looked a little off this NAB and im half expecting the experience and discipline of a hardened Freo side to get over the line in the end. Very unsure here.

Will also be betting on a win for the Crows SANFL side when the odds come out. With the amount of AFL players in our round 1 side I think we are a very good chance, even if it is against the reigning premiers.

Im also seriously looking at Demons to upset GWS, with no Cameron and no McCarthy, theyre lacking a few genuine KPFs.

I agree with most of that. I have no feel for our game (or our season for that matter), so Im hesitant to include Adelaide in betting at this stage. I expect Geelong to come out all guns blazing, and you have to wonder how Hawthorn will go with a few out. Could see an upset there. Port should be a lock, ditto Richmond. Suns should be a lock, but I find too short, even vs Essendon. I like the dogs, good value, should be a good game. Keen on Melbourne too, though GWS should push for finals, should be another close contest.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

What im looking at for Round 1

- Really want to get on the Crows 1-39 at 3.30. Regardless if im playing it safe I may go for Crows +25.5 which is paying around 1.50
- Hawks 1-39 at $3 is so, so, so juicy. Again, I might put down 1 punt and 1 smart bet, but Hawks to win outright is paying very well at 1.60
- Port and Suns to both win at 1.22 is a handy multi booster.
- The one game that has me stuck is Dogs vs Freo. I want to tip the dogs with their run and carry at Etihad, but theyve looked a little off this NAB and im half expecting the experience and discipline of a hardened Freo side to get over the line in the end. Very unsure here.

Will also be betting on a win for the Crows SANFL side when the odds come out. With the amount of AFL players in our round 1 side I think we are a very good chance, even if it is against the reigning premiers.

Im also seriously looking at Demons to upset GWS, with no Cameron and no McCarthy, theyre lacking a few genuine KPFs.

Bennell may not play round 1 either....

 

[Samcro24]

Bennell may not play round 1 either....

Ruled out with a calf already, and Lyon saying he wasnt going to play him anyway.

 

[Smoooothy]

crows paying $2.60 at the moment

 

[WheresGroomgone]

$13 for 40+

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I think West Coast will own Brisbane , same with PA against the Saints.

So many 50/50 games which could go either way.

Collingwood v Swans
Bulldogs v Freo
Crows v Roos
Melbourne v GWS

 

[azza77]

I think West Coast will own Brisbane , same with PA against the Saints.

So many 50/50 games which could go either way.

Collingwood v Swans
Bulldogs v Freo
Crows v Roos
Melbourne v GWS

Not as convinced on Port vs Saints, Eagles will smash Brisbane but I see very little value in that game at all, the odds are just way too low.

Swans vs Pies im not touching, although Sydney are so underdone and im half expecting Pies to get up.

Crows vs North will be a battle of the midfield. They cant contain our forward line and their defence is their weakest part. If we win the midfield battle then we should win comfortably.

Bennell is a big out for Freo if confirmed, leaning towards dogs now.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Not as convinced on Port vs Saints, Eagles will smash Brisbane but I see very little value in that game at all, the odds are just way too low.

Swans vs Pies im not touching, although Sydney are so underdone and im half expecting Pies to get up.

Crows vs North will be a battle of the midfield. They cant contain our forward line and their defence is their weakest part. If we win the midfield battle then we should win comfortably.

Bennell is a big out for Freo if confirmed, leaning towards dogs now.

I think the line for WCE is appropriate though.

If it was at ANZ it would be Collingwood , but now they have changed it to SCG. Collingwood are fast starters and Sydney are slow starters for the year.

Crows and North I agree with. It all comes down to the midfield. I really hope CC or Knight come in to give us a boost of speed. However at $2.60 is crazy odds for us.

Bulldogs game I really cannot pick at all. It's very difficult for me to choose :/

 

[Jeffcrowe]

As i said in another thread, Either Crouch brother to get 40 or more touches in a game for the whole season is paying $4 on Sportsbet. I think it will happen with Brouch now fit again and Mrouch finally with a full preseason. Brad Crouch played 2 games this pre season and got 40 in both plus has already done it in an AFL game.

Reckon that's the bet of the year

If Matt crouch could play 90% game time by now he would do it this week but reckon he will average 75% game time until next year

 

[Paladin]

Port and the Suns are locks load up.

Really like Melbourne, Collingwood and Geelong for value I think all 3 can win will be messing around with some multis.

Richmond make me very nervous without Lids even against Carlton leaving them out at this stage.

 

[Tex200]

Not as convinced on Port vs Saints, Eagles will smash Brisbane but I see very little value in that game at all, the odds are just way too low.

Swans vs Pies im not touching, although Sydney are so underdone and im half expecting Pies to get up.

Crows vs North will be a battle of the midfield. They cant contain our forward line and their defence is their weakest part. If we win the midfield battle then we should win comfortably.

Bennell is a big out for Freo if confirmed, leaning towards dogs now.

Taking Port with WCE at 39.5 + at least bumps it up to 1.70. Safe money imo

 

[Tex200]

Port and the Suns are locks load up.

Really like Melbourne, Collingwood and Geelong for value I think all 3 can win will be messing around with some multis.

Richmond make me very nervous without Lids even against Carlton leaving them out at this stage.

Still like GWS as Melbs NAB looks a bit better than it was.

Pies great value as a Hawks at 1.65. Cats so over valued