The Punting Fund

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FallingLiefs said:
if market movers inwards cause 1.3 to 1.35x overs surely the drifters pay 0.7 to 0.65x unders? so backing any horses you expect to drift is 0.675 + tote take.

i understand the reasoning behind taking the wide approach just in that example at stony creek i would have thought it would be much preferred to have a lot more through the faves.
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I assume that's correct, re drifters.

RE Stony Creek, often I'll have 50 to 60% of money through two short ones like that, in that scenario there was one horse I liked a bit to potentially upset one of those faves, which is why I "only" had 35% of money through them. As it turns out, it didn't upset the fave.
 
FYI there was a 26% return on outlay on day 1 of the real money club.*

*This post was paid for by Duritz Pty Ltd.

** I also understand it's just one day and basically meaningless in the overall picture as there is 90 or so days to go.

*** The aforementioned company has asked me to assure you that it's not meaningless at all and that I wasn't paid for this post.

****Wink (paid in full via PayPal)
 

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FallingLiefs said:
is that better than any day in the test system? can remember a couple good days maybe one trumped it early.
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Yeah, it's the equivalent of turning 100k into 126k in a day.

Bradman was a big help to me at Caulfield but went very well on the W.FM late quad too, missed the EQ there.
 
Give him a break ppl he has made a profit over 3 months which very few people would do!!!

And now for my quaddie "rort" wisdom
i have discovered a loophole in cashout.
I always like to go light in my quaddies early and come home heavy because i absolutely HATE missing the last leg.
I generally only spend 30 to 40 bucks and structure it like 1 or 2 x 1 2 or 3 x 1 2 or 3 x F or all the winning chances in the last leg and the favorites for extra in the last leg.
say i took a even money chance and an 8 to 1 chance in the first leg and the 1st leg wins, the cashout figure will be about $20 to $50 if the even money horse wins and $120 to $150 if the 8s pop wins , It gets interesting after the 2nd leg wins, if a shorty wins the offer will probably double, if a longy wins the offer is way more than i expected, i have had a 3s pop and 10s pop with that structure get up and the offer is over $300, and the offer is bigger if you have really short ones in the 3rd leg because it depends on the fixed odds of the horse, so even if the TAB is ripping you off on the favorite in fixed odds, the cashout will be higher cos of the greater expectation of you getting the 3rd leg (if that makes sense) I notice if i check the cashout dividend after a few mins and your horses drift, the offer will get lower. I have cashed out many times after the 2nd leg cos the offer is way larger than the stake of the running double would have paid for the stake of the quaddie and i was not that confident of getting to the last leg
Anyway if you get to the last leg and you have most of the horses running for you, the offer will be larger than most of the horses approximates.
There were occasions where the quaddie was paying $100 with the fave and the cashout offer was $250 or more.

IF you structure your quads to come home light. dont even bother with cashout it will rip you off,
Anyway i have made over $5000 more than i would have if there was no cash out and there are countless times i would have got nothing if there was no cash out. and thats with only $30 to $50 buck spends
 

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HeathComeBack said:
they are... when you come home light. there is some sort of flaw in their program though... check the cash outs sometimes ... you will be surprised how big they are
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They may be big on the faves but conversely you will be getting sickening unders on every other horse in the field.
 
nope, not at all
if i have field in the last leg,and the approximates are between $100 and $1000 the offer will be something like $250 to $300 and higher than the first five favorites in a 12 horse race. Well i am getting that offer i am taking it. cos the chances of getting a higher dividend than the offer is like 5%, the chances of a 2 to 1 favorite is 33% etc
 
the cash out figure has something to do with the fixed odds not the pool. i was dead against cash out when it first started thinking it would just be a ripoff, but i accidently stumbled upon the loophole because of the way i bet. I am a careful punter really who likes long shots if that makes sense. I have a degree in statistics (useless in life good for punting).
One specific example i will give was a race in the country a couple of months ago
i took an early quaddie which was structured 3 x 3 x 3 by field for $30 for about 12%
in the first leg i took Kathryn Durdens horse Open House which was a first starter but about 20s on fixed odds early but i put the quad on an hour before the race because i had to get back to work
anyway it won and paid 60 bucks i think
i checked the cash out offer after that race... it was $900 bucks... like wtf!! if i had $10 a win on it it would have been only $600 to me, was a confident of getting next leg.. no way i think the 3 i took were at least 5s in price. so i took the offer. if i was confident of getting hte next leg i would have partially cashed out for about half and let the rest ride (you have too you can partially cash out only once). I missed the next leg but got $900 for my $30
If the first leg was won by one of the shorties i took i just would have gone through the next legs to see what happens
it really is good insurance and makes sense if you are in the business of making money. if you are in for the big dividend.. then let it ride!
 
My question has always been is it better to go field/field/field/field or field minus the short fave in any leg as the fave saluting probably makes the quaddie not much.
 
iluvparis said:
Personally I also find it hard to believe that ever taking F can be profitable
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would be completely dependant on the other 3 legs, i would think on correctly priced markets and a couple good bets either side of the field leg it could make consistent money.

i'd personally have a little bit more through the short priced horses in the field but can easily see going the field in the right races profitable.
 
iluvparis said:
I'm almost certain over the long run you'll be much better off letting it ride every time.
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no absolutely not, i have already made at least $5000 more than I would have if there was no cash out (that doesnt mean make a $5k profit it means that i have gotten $5k more than missing the quaddie, or collecting a much larger dividend than i would have gotten if i let it ride. I have missed a collect of $400 more than i would have gotten if i let it go once in countless quaddies, that is the largest. Statistically i am going to miss a big one. but in the long run it makes sense to cash out for the cash out dividend.

iluvparis said:
Personally I also find it hard to believe that ever taking F can be profitable
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its a strategy to maximise the last dividend if i get to the last leg.

I am not telling you guys this to brag, i have never bragged on here regarding my wins or losses, and i rarely tip horses because my strategy is to make money out of a race, not to pick the winner. I am just letting you know of a loophole. Dont beleive me. try it!
 
i know i am hopeless at explaining things but Geraldton is in progress and i am alive after the 2nd leg so i can explain it properly i hope!!

i took 4 quads.
Quaddie
WR5 - GERALDTON Gallops
1/3,5,6,11/11/5,8 (FLEXI 62.5%)
$5.00
PARIMUTUEL

Thu 12 Jan 2017
17:14:42
Quaddie
WR5 - GERALDTON Gallops
1/3,5,6,11/11/F (FLEXI 10.4166%)
$5.00
PARIMUTUEL


Thu 12 Jan 2017
17:14:30
Quaddie
WR5 - GERALDTON Gallops
1,7/3,5,6,11/11/F (FLEXI 15.625%)
$15.00
PARIMUTUEL

$345,434.49
Thu 12 Jan 2017
17:14:12
Quaddie
WR5 - GERALDTON Gallops
1,7/3,5,6,11/7,11/5,8 (FLEXI 46.875%)

favorite won No 1. cash out offers were

upload_2017-1-12_18-31-49.png
 
nat the fyfe won the 2nd leg but i have 2 short odds horses in the next leg so the approximates are lower than usual
but compared to what the quaddie will pay not too bad
 

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