Opinion The Race for Pick #1 - It's ours.

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Chadwiko

@ChadwikoTWW
Sep 25, 2004
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With Hawthorn and Adelaide circling the drain of the AFL ladder, the grip that North Melbourne has on the first overall pick looked like it was becoming tenuous.

However, with unfortunate injuries to key players like Cunnington, Zurhaar, Thomas and others cropping up, it does seem likely that David Noble is widely taking a cautious approach to player management that is going to have the added benefit of solidifying our grasp on pick #1.

So what do folks reckon; who finishes the season in the 18th spot?
 

the Ziebull

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 14, 2010
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It should be us unless crows tank in round 23 which would be pointless for them as the loser of pies/hawks would then likely be last
So crows may as well win round 23 as they won’t be last regardless
 

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Firebat

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Feb 23, 2010
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Unfortunately the outs for us are huge. Pressure mounts on goals from our midfield with Cunners and Thomas gone, plus Zurharr now (together 55 goals for the year).

I think we'll be competitive, but don't feel as though there are any more wins this year.
 

The Filth Wizard

These Meats Are Spoiled
Jul 26, 2007
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If we were a chance against the Cats, Swans and even the Tigers it's with Cunnington and Zurhaar (I'm not convinced the latter will play again this season).

If we go 0-3 in those games the last game against the Crows won't be a Horne Cup for them. They won't want to lose, especially at home, a game against a team they belted away earlier in the year.

The later the season goes the older bodies need a rest and the niggles need fixing. Guys like Goldstein and Ziebell all of a sudden need to go into the shop for repairs. That's not to mention general injuries and concussion

Noble doesn't want to win the spoon in his first season and I believe him but decisions will be made to ensure the smoothest pre-season.
 

Only Forwards

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2008
21,350
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With Hawthorn and Adelaide circling the drain of the AFL ladder, the grip that North Melbourne has on the first overall pick looked like it was becoming tenuous.

However, with unfortunate injuries to key players like Cunnington, Zurhaar, Thomas and others cropping up, it does seem likely that David Noble is widely taking a cautious approach to player management that is going to have the added benefit of solidifying our grasp on pick #1.

So what do folks reckon; who finishes the season in the 18th spot?
Runs home
Us - 18 points
Geelong - Lose (too many outs now)
Rich - boy do they suck at the moment. it is 50/50 it cunners and Tarryn and it would be no contest ours.
Sydney - Doubt we win they will simply have more to play for
Adelaide - they also suck but have been better than Richmond, it'' depend on who we have fit TBH

Hawthorn - 18 points
Lions - loss
Collingwood - 50/50 who the f*** knows what happens? a draw in a shitfest?
Dogs - loss potentially a major one
Richmond - Hopefully they suck worse for the hawks than the do for us.

Collingwood 20 points
eagles - honestly who knows eagles shat it against us but expect them to win here but it is also not in Perth so
Hawks - see previous
Lions - Loss
* - Loss

Adelaide 24 points
Dogs - Loss
Port - Loss
Melbourne - Loss
Us - at home gives them an edge but it may be academic by then

From the above it is going to come down to how sh*t Richmond are. Who wins the Hawks vs Collingwood match, who wins the Collingwood WC match, and who wins the us vs Adelaide match.

Since the bye we have gone DLWLWLW given the way the season looks on paper it is funny that it looks like that could continue. Meaning that post the bye our season could look like : DLWLWLWLWLW

There is a scenario in here where we wind up on 26 points and Gold Coast lose their remaining matches (including to Carlton) we end up in 14th.

I think the most likely scenario is:

we win 1 more vs Rich
Hawthorn win 2 more
COllingwood win no more
Adelaide win against us
GC beat Carlton (no shown in my break downs)

the answer is barrack for Collingwood this weekend.
 

shintemaster

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Aug 24, 2002
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the answer is barrack for Collingwood this weekend.
Good write up. Agree Richmond are probably the lynchpin as they're very unreliable at the moment - albeit playing for a chance at finals still. Collingwood are going awful... however they also have the most to play for as there is essentially zero benefit in them finishing lower. Ideally we get through the Richmond game and it is basically sorted one way or another re: pick 1, would hate for a last round game against Adelaide to be decider.

We're still what, 25-30 goals off in percentage? So equal wins to the other teams wouldn't be enough most likely.

Noble doesn't want to win the spoon in his first season and I believe him but decisions will be made to ensure the smoothest pre-season.
I doubt he wants that on the mantle either but I also think - assuming Kelly incoming - that with our progress this year and potentially a generous draw next year we should be doing everything possible to setup for a competitive run in 2022. I don't think finals are out of the question if we get back to a full year from our core and we should be doing everything we can to hit pre season hard.
 

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Liam Boy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 12, 2008
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I don't want the ******* spoon. We don't get spoons. After 1972 we stopped getting spoons and started winning premierships. I don't want the club to throw that streak away because the prospective #1 pick looks like being a very talented player, that's the case every year. Earlier in the year when it looked like we were no chance of getting off the bottom, I along with many others took comfort knowing we'd get first crack at the draft as a consolation prize. But that's all it should ever be, the moment you start hoping for your club to lose it's over. The boys worked incredibly hard and they're playing better footy, and I want to see them keep winning.
 

Passmore

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May 22, 2001
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We've come this far am sure we can hold on for a few more weeks. Will depend on how we manage our players, we
have been up for a bit so we're possibly due a flat period.
They way people are banging on, you'd think we play Carlton 5 weeks in a row.

There'll be sterner tests coming up.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk
 

Mjs94

All Australian
Apr 24, 2016
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I don't want the ******* spoon. We don't get spoons. After 1972 we stopped getting spoons and started winning premierships. I don't want the club to throw that streak away because the prospective #1 pick looks like being a very talented player, that's the case every year. Earlier in the year when it looked like we were no chance of getting off the bottom, I along with many others took comfort knowing we'd get first crack at the draft as a consolation prize. But that's all it should ever be, the moment you start hoping for your club to lose it's over. The boys worked incredibly hard and they're playing better footy, and I want to see them keep winning.
Spot on.
 

Mordecai

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Apr 8, 2006
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I don't want the ******* spoon. We don't get spoons. After 1972 we stopped getting spoons and started winning premierships. I don't want the club to throw that streak away because the prospective #1 pick looks like being a very talented player, that's the case every year. Earlier in the year when it looked like we were no chance of getting off the bottom, I along with many others took comfort knowing we'd get first crack at the draft as a consolation prize. But that's all it should ever be, the moment you start hoping for your club to lose it's over. The boys worked incredibly hard and they're playing better footy, and I want to see them keep winning.
Was it the case in 1972?

Spoon = premierships is what I'm reading.
 

shintemaster

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 24, 2002
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Was it the case in 1972?

Spoon = premierships is what I'm reading.
Someone else somewhere said it best - the stigma of the spoon mostly died with zoning. It sucks being bad enough all year to finish last but it's the year that bothers me - one or two wins at the end doesn't change anything for me, good or bad, out of the season.
 

Mordecai

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 8, 2006
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Someone else somewhere said it best - the stigma of the spoon mostly died with zoning. It sucks being bad enough all year to finish last but it's the year that bothers me - one or two wins at the end doesn't change anything for me, good or bad, out of the season.
I agree 100%. I don't like it - the spoon should have more stigma.

The big fear is your club goes full Melbourne - I don't want us to ever do that. Winning culture is real. I think sending boys away now to recover for next year is different to willfully losing on the day.

We'd be stupid to think these last few rounds are more important than improving our draft hand.
 

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