Opinion The Race for Pick #1 - It's ours.

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Le Grille

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2005
20,422
36,453
Perth
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Yeah I no longer follow the double-standards of the media etc. It use to get up my nose, but I figured I can't do anything about it so why concern myself with it.

We currently have the worst senior player football list in the AFL. It's actually appalling how it ended up so bad.

Turner-106 games
McDonald-142
J.Walker- 127
Ziebell-224
Polec-148
Hall-149
Goldstein-278
Corr-105
Simpkin-100
Cunners- 227

two are near done at North, one may never play again- who knows. Ones on 12 month contacts and turns 32 next year. Then there is McDonald, Simpkin & Corr as the only three with any longevity left.

The rest could be delisted and it wouldn't make any difference to us at all. Goodness me.

So I kind of think we need it badly, if we grab another two quality kids like JHF, we'll be back in 24 months. Freaking kill it we will.

People tend to forget PP's once a side is up and running. They get excited and jump on board. You watch that silly old fool Carey change his tune.
I agree with you but I am prepared if we did get one that we will cop it big time
 

giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
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I dont think the threshold finals pick works.
If carlton miss finals and end up 9-10th on the ladder I dont feel good about giving them an end of first rounder for free.
It's more about clubs who cannot get off the bottom. i.e Lions, GC and now North. But right at this moment, we are even worse than GC was (team/results wise) and they were given 3 years of concessions.
 

Le Grille

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2005
20,422
36,453
Perth
AFL Club
North Melbourne
It's more about clubs who cannot get off the bottom. i.e Lions, GC and now North. But right at this moment, we are even worse than GC was (team/results wise) and they were given 3 years of concessions.
Every situation needs to be based on its merits. You could also point to the fact that we have equal longest GF drought (23yrs) 3 prelim finals in 21 years, relatively small amount of premium picks (I maintain we were probably along with Adelaide one of the most effected clubs in the draft with the concessions given to the expansion clubs)
 

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Merlin007

Premiership Player
Jun 7, 2019
3,528
11,634
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I dont think the threshold finals pick works.
If carlton miss finals and end up 9-10th on the ladder I dont feel good about giving them an end of first rounder for free.
reasonable point you make, but is it not addressed (at least to some extent) by Beveridge's wider scheme ie, if your scenario eventuates, their pick would be after North's? The virtue of his scheme is that it makes the whole process completely transparent, rather than this begging bowl process we have at the moment
 

big_e

Existential crisis management consultant
Apr 28, 2008
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It does my head in the way people refer to the top picks as the priority picks. It's the second pick they take which is really the priority pick. They would still take the player they selected if they only had one selection and they would miss out on the second player. For instance, in 2000, StKilda had the first two picks courtesy of a priority pick and they took Nick Riewoldt at 1 and Justin Koschitzke at 2. You can't say that Riewoldt was the priority pick that they were gifted because if they only had one pick, they would have still taken Riewoldt, while Koschitzke would have slipped to Collingwood. Likewise, the next year when West Coast had picks 3 and 6, you can't really call Chris Judd the priority pick that they were gifted - if they didn't have 2 of the top 6 picks, they still take Judd but miss out on Ashley Sampi.
Knowing you have an additional selection changes behaviours, though.

Going back a long time here, but in 97, Melbourne got the number pick as a priority, took Travis Johnstone, and then traded what was now the number two pick for Jeff White. The number two pick ended up being Brad Ottens. Now, knowing they wanted a ruck, you could mount an argument that, without having that extra pick to bring in a ruck, they just draft Ottens at number one.

Likewise in 1999, Collingwood traded pick three, what was their normal pick, for Steven McKee, a ruck who could partner Josh Fraser, who was taken with the priority pick. If there was no priority pick, do they think Fraser isn't up to the job of rucking all year on his own, or take a junior ball magnet like Paul Hasleby at pick one? Or Pavlich, perhaps?

2004, with Hawthorn taking the punt on Richmond not wanting Lance Franklin, is the classic case here.

2007, OK maybe Carlton shouldn't be credited with getting Kreuzer as a priority pick because they would have got him anyway, but that priority pick is what gave them the ability to trade for Chris Judd.

As for the year West Coast drafted Judd in the first place, remember that pick one was traded by Fremantle to Hawthorn for Trent Croad. Take away that priority pick and honestly, * knows what Freo would have done. They may have gone Judd at one, they may have gone Polak at one, and then St Kilda go Judd at two and West Coast end up with Hodge.

I understand where you are coming from but IMO it's just far too simplistic to look at it that way.

It gets even murkier once you start trying to explain alternative universes when talking about end of first round selections, like Rance, Darling, et al. In reality, those are just free swings, pure and simple.
 

Passmore

Brownlow Medallist
May 22, 2001
19,296
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The Gasometer Wing
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Well i think we'll be a chance last rd against the Suns, they'll be over footy by then. Adelaide Tassie and GW$ is about our best chances.

Maybe four was a bit high, will depend on what some clubs have to play for I suppose.

Look, I’d give us a chance against Tassie. A draw would be the favoured result. I could see us kicking out on the full and given they have no players yet to field a team, we’d be standing around all day waiting for it to be kicked in.

Would we get to sing the song? Oh well….
 

Le Grille

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2005
20,422
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Perth
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Look, I’d give us a chance against Tassie. A draw would be the favoured result. I could see us kicking out on the full and given they have no players yet to field a team, we’d be standing around all day waiting for it to be kicked in.

Would we get to sing the song? Oh well….
If we get the chance to sing the song we better keep it circumspect lest we offend certain media pundits
 

hilly

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 27, 2000
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Yes Hilly i do believe that to be the case. And why wouldn't it be...

I think we'll win around 4 games for the year. So that would give us 11.5 wins from our last 61 attempts. Imagine if that was a boxer's W/L record he'd be retired for his own safety. So it reeks of number two to me.

We have managed 8.5 wins from our last 44 matches , that is of course two completed H&A seasons. As 2019 only had 17 games as all know.

So if someone could then explain why we wouldn't receive that pick? And I don't think missing finals for X years is the answer either.

Bottom four finishes are the key. We'll be 3/3 at seasons end. I will enquire to what our clubs thoughts are on it. But heck if we muck this up.

Cheers and fwiw I'd go with three wins.
 

hilly

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 27, 2000
14,158
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I guess though we’d have far more heat from it than other recipients. Look at Good Friday we are held to higher standard than other clubs with marquee fixtures. I fully expect for us to be relieved of that, the media and the public will make sure of it. Perhaps the PP is a peace offering for that inevitability.

Say we are granted one and the rebuild falls flat we will cop calls of , we’ll we granted you PPs and you still suck time for you to go to tassie.

I know none of this is fair but that’s not to say it won’t happen. The influence of the media and the mindless acceptance of the public will ensure it becomes fact and therefore compelling the AFL to shaft us.

Expect no favours. At least none without massive conditions

Unfortunately there is a the risk of a knock-on effect but if offered pick 2 in exchange for losing the Good Friday game..
 

The acurate one

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 23, 2019
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North Melbourne
Look, I’d give us a chance against Tassie. A draw would be the favoured result. I could see us kicking out on the full and given they have no players yet to field a team, we’d be standing around all day waiting for it to be kicked in.

Would we get to sing the song? Oh well….

Yes well that's a bit harsh, it was windy. The ball was hacked out of the middle and we pressured it over the line for a thrown in on the centre wing.

And the big man flew again and the loose ball swooped on by Turner who in fairness wasn't use to have the ball. He scooped it to JZ who of course was facing the wrong way and snapped over his shoulder from 55 metres out just the wrong side of the point post unfortunately.

Nobles tried to keep the excitement down at quarter time as it was our best first quarter in years. 0.0.00 to 0.0.00

I still think we should have won though, but yes a draw = points.
 

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The acurate one

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 23, 2019
7,497
30,282
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Unfortunately there is a the risk of a knock-on effect but if offered pick 2 in exchange for losing the Good Friday game..

Yes well should we lose it we need to come up with our own blockbuster and I'm thinking the winter solstice. Around 23 June. Yes a Pagan religious day. We could even parade around town ol Dennis- why the * not?

Give the emo's something to do and as we lose a shitload it won't mess with their mental state. I am seeing win/lose/win here.

They won't take GF off us mate.
 

Val Keating

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 27, 2017
20,068
44,066
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Can someone do me a solid and tell me the page to go to in this thread where it’s relevant to this season?

Or maybe start a new thread for this season?
 

Passmore

Brownlow Medallist
May 22, 2001
19,296
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The Gasometer Wing
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To save some effort the mods should just rename the thread to "The Race for Pick #1 2023 - the threepeat"
A002D5F2-25BE-42A2-8498-226BF1CBD5FF.jpeg
 

Too Many Hyphens

Premium Gold
Jul 18, 2013
957
3,330
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I dont think the threshold finals pick works.
If carlton miss finals and end up 9-10th on the ladder I dont feel good about giving them an end of first rounder for free.

This is true and it probably underlines the reasons why the AFL is reluctant to re-establish hard and fast rules for priority picks. Previously, less than 5 wins was a mistake as we saw losing grand finalists suffer a few injuries and have a single down year, yet score a PP. Nobody likes the AFL making decisions based on secret criteria, but priority picks really do need to be assigned based on the vibe rather than anything specific.
 

giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
84,998
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And all of NT as an NGA wasn’t it?
Darwin.


Its three years of draft assistance includes:

  • Pick No.1 at the 2019 NAB AFL Draft.
  • The first pick of the second round (currently pick No.20) at the 2019 NAB AFL Draft.
  • Mid first-round pick (currently pick No.11) at the 2020 NAB AFL Draft.
  • The first pick of the second round (currently Pick.19) at the 2021 NAB AFL Draft.
It will also get Darwin as part of its expanded Academy access zone, while it will be able to pre-list players out of that region without the AFL's normal bidding processes.

The final part of its assistance package will be the ability to rookie up to 10 players.
 

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