Opinion The Race for Pick #1 - It's ours.

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Fish Sticks

Team Captain
Mar 2, 2015
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KPP’s are taken in second round picks and free agency. Also, you say Kelly? Where is he? He’s a GWS player. You take the best kid available with your first pick regardless. The way you like to do business would send you broke.
Nearly every good key forward in the league was taken in the first round:
McKay
Naughton
King x 2
Riewoldt
Lynch
Buddy
Kennedy
Plus Cameron, Hawkins & Dixon would have been first rounders
Who are all of these second round key forwards you speak of?
 

ozzyoslo

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Mar 15, 2008
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Our current midfield+ Kelly = a premiership midfield.

we could do with a young Quality KPP though. And having two picks in the top 10 next year.

of course it should go without saying I’m more than happy to have Horne. But if we can significantly strengthen our holes instead of blindly taking bestmidbestmidbestmid I’d hope the club look at it.

a lot of the blind Horne posts reek of risk aversion and conservatism to me. Turning Pick 1 into two Top 5 picks when we’re stacked for mids isn’t even risky. It’s two Top5 picks!

what if we could trade one of those picks for Cerra? Or someone else good. We must at least think outside the box, even if in the end we take Horne. We should take him in full knowledge of the opportunity cost and the alternatives
I'm with you Yianni, Our midfield in 3 yrs time is unbelievable.........and don't forget PEREZ !! he could easily be a midfielder as well.
 

Yianni

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 19, 2001
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Seriously hard Horne!😂
Boy, a lot of people so shitscared about anything other than Horne that they didn’t even read the wording of my actual posts.

0DE04B99-1651-4992-83DE-B29C63AFA89E.jpeg


To recap:
  • Gay for Horne. Love Horne. He looks great, when does a number 1 Pick not look great? I will start the fan club in the event that or on condition that we pick him.
  • If someone’s going to sell the farm for him, like Adelaide, it’s worth taking a look at said farm, EVEN in the event that or on condition that we end up taking Horne.
  • Who the fu** knows if Kelly’s coming. But in the event that or on condition that he does come, that would change the calculus around Horne. I have no mail on this either way, I haven’t even been into the Josh Kelly to North Mk 2 thread.
  • I am not magic. Me suggesting a trade isn’t going to make it happen, doesn’t decrease our chances of Horne, so there’s no need to respond as I am and need to delete the thread. We can afford the bandwidth, it’s worth having the discussion even in the event that or on condition that we end up taking Horne (I repeat, love Horne, Liberace gay for Horne)
 
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DuckYeah

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Nearly every good key forward in the league was taken in the first round:
McKay
Naughton
King x 2
Riewoldt
Lynch
Buddy
Kennedy
Plus Cameron, Hawkins & Dixon would have been first rounders
Who are all of these second round key forwards you speak of?
Tex Walker - pick 75
Tom Hawkins - pick 41 (was not bid in the first round)
Josh Bruce and Charlie Dixon - you cant say he would have been. Thats hypothetical.
Ben Brown
Souve
Fritsch - pick 31
Mitch McGovern - 43
Oscar Allen - 21
Darling - 26
Petrie - 26

sure they’re no buddy franklins.
 

ozzyoslo

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Tex Walker - pick 75
Tom Hawkins - pick 41 (was not bid in the first round)
Josh Bruce and Charlie Dixon - you cant say he would have been. Thats hypothetical.
Ben Brown
Souve
Fritsch - pick 31
Mitch McGovern - 43
Oscar Allen - 21
Darling - 26
Petrie - 26

sure they’re no buddy franklins.
You were doing well until here......#Mitchisatard !!
 

Fish Sticks

Team Captain
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Tex Walker - pick 75
Tom Hawkins - pick 41 (was not bid in the first round)
Josh Bruce and Charlie Dixon - you cant say he would have been. Thats hypothetical.
Ben Brown
Souve
Fritsch - pick 31
Mitch McGovern - 43
Oscar Allen - 21
Darling - 26
Petrie - 26

sure they’re no buddy franklins.
Hawkins was F/S when bidding wasn’t around… he would have easily have gone top 5 in that draft.
Darling is the only current player on your list, taken in the second round, that I would call a gun Key Forward.
If you are throwing names like McGovern, Allen & Fritsch in there, I may as well add Daniher, Stringer, Hipwood, Himmelberg, Greene, Georgiades…
And as far as key backs go, I can’t be bothered trawling club lists & draft positions to name them, but just looking at our own team, both Tarrant & MacKay, were taken first round.
 

Yianni

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Lot of confident sounding statements here.

KPP’s are taken in second round picks and free agency.
Generally, league’s best KPP go early, as do most of the league’s best players.

Also, you say Kelly? Where is he? He’s a GWS player.
Yes. and a FA. And the club might bring him, they might not. My point is, if they are/do, then our midfield starts looking disproportionately strong compared to our spine. At some point we need forwards and someone to replace Robbie.

You take the best kid available with your first pick regardless.
It’s this kind of received wisdom that may we’ll be right in our case, but it shouldn’t go unquestioned.

The way you like to do business would send you broke.
The certainty with which you make statements certainly strips a lot of the shades of grey out of my business strategy. It reeks of fear.

Again, love the Horne. Hate the Drake. But love the Horne. Let me ask you one thing. The decision makers at the club managed to wrangle Sleevo in for essentially Pick 25 odd. What makes you think they couldn’t turn Pick 1 into something like Buddy and Roughy? What if Horne is Tambling?

I mean he’s obviously not, because as we’re all certain, Jason Horne is the second coming. But so was Tambling.
 

Yianni

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E63609C8-90AD-4A95-8EFD-968DD8618700.jpeg
I’ll just post this and say, between these two lists, I’d rather take my chances winning flags with the top list than the bottom one.

Also remember that the second list is cherry picked. Exceptions don’t mean the rule doesn’t hold. Top forwards often cost good picks.
 

DuckYeah

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Lot of confident sounding statements here.



Generally, league’s best KPP go early, as do most of the league’s best players.



Yes. and a FA. And the club might bring him, they might not. My point is, if they are/do, then our midfield starts looking disproportionately strong compared to our spine. At some point we need forwards and someone to replace Robbie.



It’s this kind of received wisdom that may we’ll be right in our case, but it shouldn’t go unquestioned.



The certainty with which you make statements certainly strips a lot of the shades of grey out of my business strategy. It reeks of fear.

Again, love the Horne. Hate the Drake. But love the Horne. Let me ask you one thing. The decision makers at the club managed to wrangle Sleevo in for essentially Pick 25 odd. What makes you think they couldn’t turn Pick 1 into something like Buddy and Roughy? What if Horne is Tambling?

I mean he’s obviously not, because as we’re all certain, Jason Horne is the second coming. But so was Tambling.
Have a look at how many KPP have moved clubs. Dixon, Lynch, Daniher, Cameron, Buddy to name a few. You build from the midfield out. Kelly will be 28? Next year? Our window wont be before he’s 30. Whats the point of that? Horne will be primed in 2/3 years and play round 1 next year? 😂 hahaha

Horne Tambling hahahahahahaha
 

Merlin007

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Jun 7, 2019
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Nearly every good key forward in the league was taken in the first round:
McKay
Naughton
King x 2
Riewoldt
Lynch
Buddy
Kennedy
Plus Cameron, Hawkins & Dixon would have been first rounders
Who are all of these second round key forwards you speak of?
Oscar Allen, Callum Coleman-Jones, Daniel McStay, Harrison Jones, our own Charlie Comben. There was a really good 'opinion piece' on here (forget who - apologies) who made the case that a pick around 20 generally lands you the third or fourth best tall in any given draft, with the conclusion that this is a better 'proportion' of quality than the 3rd or 4th best midfielder, who will more than likely go in the first 10. You'd need to do a thorough analysis, but interesting theory
 

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The acurate one

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Jan 23, 2019
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Would be very interesting if there was a young Wayne Carey in the drafts this year. Anywho I'm confused as to why people and fairly smart people think those of us that want pick #1 are advocates for tanking? We're not, it's just we're realists.

We for years recruited players not good enough to be premiership players but good enough to have us around the eight, usually ninth with the majority of our wins either in Tassie or against fledgling clubs or bottom four battlers.

I do see how us losing yesterday did us any damage at all, actually it seems the football world were impressed with our loss. do you lot not remember when we were questioned on what we stood for as a club? The media didn't talk about us unless it was to be negative. Them was some dark days.

We currently sit deadlast and the stories are all positive, I've said it before all media personalities want to be the first to declare a new dawn for any footy club.
By delisting 12 senior footballers we decide to go back to come forward 100% the right decision. It's not tanking and we're not tanking but you can manipulate finishing positions by who takes the field any given Sunday or Saturday and very occasionally Friday night.

Our culture won't be tarnished by being 18th, as I think Chad said ( wisely) finishing 17th doesn't make you anymore successful.

The drafts are the equalisation tool at all clubs disposal and yes we'd get a good footballer if we finished 17th, but what we don't get by being 17th is total control of the pre-season draft. That if you like is the money shot. Clubs have lost all power and allows us to manipulate our desired outcomes.

Many a club has bottomed out got draft assistance and bounced back and won flags while we sat around and fiddled. I for one hope we finish last, don't win another game for the season and I will still judge this year as the fourth most successful year between about 2001- 2021. Though it will be our most important year since 1999. It's been far too long people.
 

Mordecai

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I really, realy hope our horizon looks further than say Robert Harvey at Collingwood or David Teague at Carlton.

Robert Harvey has put Sidebottom, De Goey, Adams and Pendlebury when he was fit, back into the midfield. The old stagers have lifted their performance at the cost of development of their kids. Harvey is a coach looking for wins to secure a job at a time where caretakers are getting a genuine look in (Rhyce, Ratten, Teague).

David Teague was green and left out Stocker, Williamson and Dow. He put it all on Cripps back and he now looks a broken player.

The time given to these guys is short and they're forced to take shortcuts to secure their near-term position.

We must refuse the bandaid, we need to take our medicine.

In the workplace you have a choice to meet the impossible demands of management. You can work late, put in the extra hours and constantly shift focus from task to task. Or you can work on improving processes (with the short term cost of letting tasks slip due to a lack of resources) and go for lasting improvment.

There are two "currencies" in the AFL. Draft picks and development of draft picks. 4-5 weeks from now to the end season will not sabotage development of our players. We have to nail that other currency and build up a critical amount of talent to create a dynasty. With LDU, Tarryn, Simpkin, Phillips, Powell and Stephenson we are building that critical mass. The time is now. Don't fu** this up for the love of god.
 

Passmore

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Oscar Allen, Callum Coleman-Jones, Daniel McStay, Harrison Jones, our own Charlie Comben. There was a really good 'opinion piece' on here (forget who - apologies) who made the case that a pick around 20 generally lands you the third or fourth best tall in any given draft, with the conclusion that this is a better 'proportion' of quality than the 3rd or 4th best midfielder, who will more than likely go in the first 10. You'd need to do a thorough analysis, but interesting theory
Sounds like a job for RobZombie

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Nutjob

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Tex Walker - pick 75
Tom Hawkins - pick 41 (was not bid in the first round)
Josh Bruce and Charlie Dixon - you cant say he would have been. Thats hypothetical.
Ben Brown
Souve
Fritsch - pick 31
Mitch McGovern - 43
Oscar Allen - 21
Darling - 26
Petrie - 26

sure they’re no buddy franklins.
That list is trash compared to the list of 1st round KPP’s. Hawkins and Dixon would both have been at least top 10, if not top 5 in the open draft. Fritsch isn’t a key forward and McGovern would be close to the worst key forward in the competition.


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DuckYeah

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That list is trash compared to the list of 1st round KPP’s. Hawkins and Dixon would both have been at least top 10, if not top 5 in the open draft. Fritsch isn’t a key forward and McGovern would be close to the worst key forward in the competition.


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I just looked at the leading goal kickers this year. I mean if you’re in the top 10 you must be trash. Uh huh. McGovern was really good before he left adelaide with a massive ceiling. You could throw Jesse Hogan in there too who was outside the first round. You can find good enough in the second round and you can move em around in FA.

the point is, KP Forwards are shifted and uprooted from their clubs. They are the players that most move in FA. So why bother having one develop on a list that takes years to have them walk away? You go and get your key forward by dangling a carrot (coin/team)
 

Yianni

Norm Smith Medallist
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the point is, KP Forwards are shifted and uprooted from their clubs. They are the players that most move in FA. So why bother having one develop on a list that takes years to have them walk away? You go and get your key forward by dangling a carrot (coin/team)
So why did we draft Comben? Delist?
 

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