Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.

[Jezzitizle]

Yeah, the fixture point is valid but we had a very good run on double ups this year. Brisbane actually got completely shafted in the end, their record is more impressive than it appears (not that I care, getting so unbelievably kissed on the dixk with their points kids the last 4 years).

Trying not to get pre-emptively upset but losing the last two to miss finals on 15 wins is sticking out like donkey balls at the moment even though I genuinely think we'll beat Brisbane at home.

Tell me this - if you had being on 14 wins with 3 to play on the table at the start of the year, would you have taken it?

 

[Minz]

Way I see it, need 6 more wins
-2/3 in the regular season then 4 finals or
-3/3 in the regular season for top 4 then 3 finals

The team’s been excellent against top 8 opponents (with the obvious exception a long time ago); continue like that and it’s no worries. Stumble tho… literally no room for error at this time of year. It’s effectively finals already.

 

[ignoramus]

I would have agreed in seasons past that we have been dudded by the fixture, but I don’t think that argument holds water this season.

• we got 13 games out of 23 at home in Perth
• we get to play one of the worst sides ever seen in the AFL era twice (most other top 9 teams don’t have that luxury)
• four of our six double ups are against sides from the bottom 9 also rans this season (saints, west coast, port and sydney). Of the 8 other good teams in 2025 we only play Collingwood and bulldogs twice.

There are teams that have advantages in other areas over freo in that top 9, clubs like Geelong and gold coast seem to have a lot of games against poor teams too, but I don’t think we are any real way disadvantaged in the fixture in 2025 compared to the likes of bulldogs, GWS and hawks.

Now if you want to talk about free agency and academies that’s a different matter. Those advantages are embedded in the comp and unrelated to the fixture.

For what it’s worth I think we’ll finish top 8 anyway.

Nah. You’ve switched from talking about “a team on 15 wins” (ie making a general point) to specifically Freo. Even if we accept every point you make about Freo, that doesn’t support the argument that the teams that finish in the 8 are simply better than whoever finishes 9th.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Starcevich injured.

Injuries building for Brisbane

 

[Dockeroo]

Finey. What would this clim know about footy over and above the average joe on the street?
I read somewhere he was literally plucked out of a pub by hutchy and given a radio show because hutchy enjoyed drinking with him. Thats the only reason he has a platform now!

 

[Randomizor]

Well I sure hope so now

 

[swanny1234]

Well we are here…

 

[wakojako]

Top 4 still unlikely but one win closer to finals. We need to throw everything at Brisbane because we are more likely to beat them then the Dogs at Marvel. Brisbane have some injuries and we should be getting some boys back. This game is huge so hopefully the boys have a quick recovery and are up for the task.

 

[ubiquitous226]

Far out, we've made it to 15 and the answer may be, it still isn't enough.
At the very minimum a team will miss on 14 wins, and at this stage more than possibly 15.
If we don't win next week the following round is going to be unbearable as a fan.

 

[SPEEDWAGON]

Everyone is looking down

Look up - fear no one

if (when) crows beat pies next week - we will finish top 4 after winning both games

Crows and suns in top 4 with no finals experience

Potentially lions out of the 8

Win it

 

[Righteo]

We are not beating the Dogs in a de facto elim final in the last round

Next Friday's game is the biggest under Longmuir (for like the 5th time this season)

 

[Mr Cheese]

We are not beating the Dogs in a de facto elim final in the last round

Next Friday's game is the biggest under Longmuir (for like the 5th time this season)

Why not? Genuine question.

They're like a sieve defensively, and I think we match up well on their talls. It'll be won out of the middle; we bring our A-game and we're in it up to our eyeballs. We win clearance, we win that game.

 

[FreoRicci]

Starcevich injured.

Injuries building for Brisbane

Their backline look very fragile.

 

[LongSerong]

Why not? Genuine question.

They're like a sieve defensively, and I think we match up well on their talls. It'll be won out of the middle; we bring our A-game and we're in it up to our eyeballs. We win clearance, we win that game.

We've never in my memory been able to stop Bont

 

[Righteo]

Why not? Genuine question.

They're like a sieve defensively, and I think we match up well on their talls. It'll be won out of the middle; we bring our A-game and we're in it up to our eyeballs. We win clearance, we win that game.

Mostly this. I think they have the deepest midfield in the comp and we are heavily reliant on Serong/Brayshaw, especially with ? over Young and Johnson. We beat them earlier in the year but lost clearances by 3 and inside 50's by 19 and that was without Bont playing. We countered this by tearing them apart in transition but at Marvel with a more contested game this is unlikely to happen again imo. I also expect Bevo to clamp Serong unlike the last game where he ran free.

Sam Darcy. We won frees last time 27-15 which will likely be reversed. Our record in these types of games going back 20 years and my accumulated trauma from that, including last year. Finally our form itself, yeah we've won 11/12 but that one or two nightmare qtr we've been producing lately is going to get punished by an experienced mob. The pressure on the lads will be ****ing monumental and I think the Bulldogs away are just a really bad match up for us.

Of course, even if we beat Brisbane it will still be a hugely important match determining a potential home final/top 4 finish but if it comes down to an us-or-them situation for the 8 my gut tells me it's gonna be them. Esoterically, it's that creeping "Dockery" sensation on the back of my neck that only a premiership can properly exorcise once and for all. I've got trust issues.

 

[wakojako]

The only change for this week should be Wagner for Dudley or Noddy. Young and Johnson likely to not be ready this week. I'm happy to keep Banners in the team for now.

 

[stax on the mull]

Starcevich injured.

Injuries building for Brisbane

Brisbane board saying Fagan post-game said it was just precautionary and he'll play this week.

 

[Jezzitizle]

Feel like we are going to cop a hammering in one of the next two games, a 10+ goal loss. Probs Dogs.

Hopefully Dees cause an upset today, and they are out of finals contention by bounce down last round.

 

[Quiexo]

We won frees last time 27-15

We most certainly did not, it was the other way round, the Dogs won the free kick count..I distinctly remember that game, everyone in Optus (including me) were absolutely losing their sh*t at the umps, the boos after the siren were as loud as I can remember..

 

[freo84]

We most certainly did not, it was the other way round, the Dogs won the free kick count..I distinctly remember that game, every in Optus (including me) were absolutely losing their sh*t at the umps, the boos after the siren were as loud as I can remember..

Yeah we got massacred by the umps that game.

 

[go_the_dockers]

3 big game next week. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

Pos	Team	W	L	%	Remaining Games vs Top 9	Projected Wins
1​	Adelaide	17​	5​	146.8​	1​	17.5​
2​	Collingwood	16​	4​	135.9​	1​	16.5​
3​	Geelong	17​	6​	139.8​	0​	17​
4​	Gold Coast	16​	6​	126​	1​	16.5​
5​	Fremantle	15​	6​	116.6​	2​	16​
6​	GWS	15​	7​	114.9​	1​	15.5​
7​	Brisbane Lions	14​	5​	113.4​	2​	15​
8​	Hawthorn	14​	8​	118.7​	2​	15​
9​	Western Bulldogs	14​	8​	139.7​	1​	14.5​

Round 23​

• Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions – Friday, August 15 at Optus Stadium
• Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants – Saturday, August 16 at People First Stadium
• Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies – Sat 16 Aug, Adelaide Oval

Round 24

• Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks – Likely Fri 22 Aug, Gabba
• Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers – Likely Sun 24 Aug, Marvel Stadium
  
  
  

 

[Lach72]

We need GC to hammer the shit out of GWS

 

[ubiquitous226]

We need GC to hammer the shit out of GWS

Silver lining if GWS win then a top 4 spot is available if we win.
Big IF though, I just really want to qualify for finals this year, but it's so open it feels like a rare opportunity even if we aren't the finished product.

 

[ubiquitous226]

3 big game next week. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

Pos	Team	W	L	%	Remaining Games vs Top 9	Projected Wins
1​	Adelaide	18​	5​	146.8​	0​	18​
2​	Collingwood	16​	4​	135.9​	2​	17​
3​	Geelong	17​	6​	139.8​	0​	17​
4​	Gold Coast	16​	6​	126​	1​	16.5​
5​	Fremantle	15​	6​	116.6​	2​	16​
6​	GWS	15​	7​	114.9​	1​	15.5​
7​	Brisbane Lions	14​	5​	113.4​	2​	15​
8​	Hawthorn	14​	8​	118.7​	2​	15​
9​	Western Bulldogs	14​	8​	139.7​	1​	14.5​

Round 21​

• Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants – Thu 31 Jul, Marvel Stadium (Bulldogs)
• Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks – Fri 1 Aug, Adelaide Oval (Crows)
• Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions – Sat 2 Aug, MCG (Brisbane)

Round 22

• Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies – Thu 7 Aug, MCG (Hawks)

Round 23

• Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions – Friday, August 15 at Optus Stadium
• Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants – Saturday, August 16 at People First Stadium
• Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies – Sat 16 Aug, Adelaide Oval

Round 24

• Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks – Likely Fri 22 Aug, Gabba
• Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers – Likely Sun 24 Aug, Marvel Stadium
  
  
  View attachment 2391160

Can delete R21 and R22 games of importance now.
Fixture for R24 is out, both Sunday games, Brisbane v Hawks games is after us.

Also Adelaide have 1 game left vs top 9 (not 0), and Hawthorn only have 1 now (not 2).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Pending results today it is:
A) Extremely likely we get a home final beating Brisbane
B) Extremely likely we get top 4 winning both
C) Extremely likely we miss the 8 losing both

What a nutty nutty season.