So after all that has happened in the past 72 hours, Trump's campaign supposedly being dead, the lead is only 11 points? And that fills you with confidence for a Clinton victory?
The 1988 election had an 8.8% margin. That translated to an electoral college win of 426 to 111; a landslide by any definition.
But no, I'm not filled with confidence by an 11 point margin in two recent isolated polls. I'm filled with confidence by a 4.6 point margin
the most conservative of the three forecasts by the poll averaging model which predicted the 2008 result to 96% accuracy and the 2012 result to 100% accuracy.
Clinton had a 17 point lead over Sanders in the polls in Michigan, and lost.
Again, primaries are a totally different kettle of fish, and can be influenced heavily by hype and acute momentum (like that of, oh, say, a Sanders or a Trump) in a way that general presidential elections are not.
Polling was also seriously off in the Brexit vote, the Scottish referendum and the most recent UK election.
And that relates to this election how?
The data isn't as reliable these days and I stand by my prediction that the silent Trump voter is real and has been largely missed by the pollsters.
Based on what?
Less than 1 month to go. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I have no issue with a Clinton presidency, I just don't think she'll win.
Since you're so confident I'd be more than interested in an even money bet.
