Mega Thread The Random Thoughts Thread Part 2: Electric Portaloo

Who is your most hated set of twins in the AFL?


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Fear of persecution at the hands of a person calling you on the phone, or fear of persecution at the hands of a webform?
Apologies, I was speaking in general terms but I wouldn't be surprised if the silent Trump supporter didn't tell a living soul or write it into a website. I don't know why that would be the case, maybe because said silent Trump supporter feels it's nobody's business but their own who they're going to vote for. People not wanting to divulge information, no matter how trivial that information is, is a real thing and one possible reason why the polling may be out, particularly in this election cycle.

Consider your bluff called, then. :)
Not sure how it can be a bluff when even odds is clearly a terrible bet. Betting agencies are offering 5:1 odds in a 2 horse race.
 

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raman

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Apologies, I was speaking in general terms but I wouldn't be surprised if the silent Trump supporter didn't tell a living soul or write it into a website. I don't know why that would be the case, maybe because said silent Trump supporter feels it's nobody's business but their own who they're going to vote for. People not wanting to divulge information, no matter how trivial that information is, is a real thing and one possible reason why the polling may be out, particularly in this election cycle.
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Not sure how it can be a bluff when even odds is clearly a terrible bet. Betting agencies are offering 5:1 odds in a 2 horse race.
If you genuinely thought Trump winning was the likelier outcome, I'm not sure why you'd turn your nose up at even money. If you require odds to make it a reasonable risk, then you're not as sure as you're claiming to be.
 

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I want to watch your sitcom
 
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The silent Trump supporter is far from conspiracy theory territory. It's a variation of the Bradley effect.

If you genuinely thought Trump winning was the likelier outcome, I'm not sure why you'd turn your nose up at even money. If you require odds to make it a reasonable risk, then you're not as sure as you're claiming to be.
If I were to gamble on the election result I would take the best odds available and you're offering garbage odds.
 

chiwigi

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The silent Trump supporter is far from conspiracy theory territory. It's a variation of the Bradley effect.



If I were to gamble on the election result I would take the best odds available and you're offering garbage odds.
With no skin in the game with Raman means you aren't as sure as you are claiming to be. It's nothing to do with odds and gambling really.
 
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With no skin in the game with Raman means you aren't as sure as you are claiming to be. It's nothing to do with odds and gambling really.
It has everything to do with gambling because it is gambling.

I can argue a point and offer an opinion but if you want to frame the argument around money as some form of validation of my opinion you better be prepared to pony up at the market rate.
 

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I'm not on Forza's side of the argument here but he'd have to be a total moron to put up an even money bet with a guy off of the Internet when he could get 5:1 odds from a betting company. There's literally zero advantage to him in doing that.
 

raman

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I'm not on Forza's side of the argument here but he'd have to be a total moron to put up an even money bet with a guy off of the Internet when he could get 5:1 odds from a betting company. There's literally zero advantage to him in doing that.
I never expected there to be a bet, was just trying to be illustrative, but I completely accept the disingenuousness of the method I used.
 

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Forza, don't worry about it, all you've gotta do is Trump Yo'self

- Take the evens bet
- When you lose, complain that raman cheated and the system is biased against you
- Refuse to pay the bet
- Eventually offer to pay 10% of what you owe, or raman can have nothing
- Tell everyone how good at negotiating you are
 

raman

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Forza, don't worry about it, all you've gotta do is Trump Yo'self

- Take the evens bet
- When you lose, complain that raman cheated and the system is biased against you
- Refuse to pay the bet
- Eventually offer to pay 10% of what you owe, or raman can have nothing
- Tell everyone how good at negotiating you are
- Appoint a special prosecutor to put me in jail. :D
 

raman

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The silent Trump supporter is far from conspiracy theory territory. It's a variation of the Bradley effect.
I wasn't accusing you of embracing a conspiracy theory, just of embracing a gut feeling and not really doing much to rationalise your position beyond that.

Segueing, I was thinking today about the Trump campaign's timing of the "scandal" press conference with the various Bill Clinton exes/accusers, being as it was an hour before the debate. Trump has to be (or, at least, his handlers have to be) smart enough to know that it was going to get completely lost in the media noise about the debate itself, which it most assuredly has. This says to me that he/they know that it's not a strategy that is going to gain them votes or lose Clinton votes. The only strategic value it might possibly have had would be to rattle Clinton right before the debate and result in her giving a disastrous performance.

Psyche-out move, desperate move... and failed move.
 

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I'm not on Forza's side of the argument here but he'd have to be a total moron to put up an even money bet with a guy off of the Internet when he could get 5:1 odds from a betting company. There's literally zero advantage to him in doing that.
See, "betcha a slab Port don't win the flag moite".

If I was confident in taking that bet why wouldn't I take that $50 to Sportspunt and get a price of $21?
 

tribey

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well to be fair, some people make financially uneven bets with friends because they think the social/human aspect of the bet is more valuable & important than a small amount of money

#communism
Counterpoint: "Receipt #104899321" versus "We did?..."
 
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