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The Real AFL MVP - 2025 Edition
- Thread starter Fadge
- Start date
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Bonts 2023 was superior to Daicos 2023.
Only think Daicos had over him was uncontested possessions, Bont just crushed him in stats that actually matter.
I like Daicos a lot, but until he starts lifting his clearances and contested possession numbers, or pumps out a 30+ goal season, it's tough to argue he's the best player in the league.
Only think Daicos had over him was uncontested possessions, Bont just crushed him in stats that actually matter.
I like Daicos a lot, but until he starts lifting his clearances and contested possession numbers, or pumps out a 30+ goal season, it's tough to argue he's the best player in the league.
Yes, I remember.
It's a shame as Fyfe was at the absolute peak of his powers in 2014 and 2015.
I'm not sure how much of it lays at the feet of Sam Mitchell though and how much was other injury and poor injury management.
I say this because the act was pretty innocuous, Fyfe played out the rest of the game (with no reduced TOG) and played the following two weeks before missing any games.
He then returned for 2 matches (playing 90% TOG, which is a huge workload for an inside mid) before missing another couple of games with a bone issue. No 'corkie' should be resulting in fibula issues over a month after occurrence.
He then clean broke his leg completely (in another minor incident with Brian Lake) in the Prelim. Something was wrong unrelated to a minor cork that was not being managed correctly.
Whilst I think Freo supporters are the ones who are entitled to call Mitchell a "Dirty Sniper", I do find it a bit much now that supporters of all clubs remember him this way. Sam Mitchell played 329 games over 16 seasons and was the target of taggers and dirty acts throughout much of it. Meanwhile, Mitchell rarely retaliated, hardly gave away free kicks and was suspended for a total of one match in his career. He kneed Nat Fyfe in a regrettable, minor incident and now everyone considers him a "dirty sniper". They don't say the same for Chris Judd who eye gouged, chicken-winged and did all sorts of genuinely dirty thing regularly. They don't say the same of Dustin Fletcher who was suspended 14 times in his career, or Matthew Scarlett who decked Ballantyne with a right cross. It's a strange one.
On Fyfe's early season run - you're right, it was breathtaking. Not sure 'unquestionably the most dominant' as there are several contenders such as Ablett's run in 2014 before injury, Judd's form in '07 before injury, Kouta in 2000, Jonathan Brown in whatever year that was, etc.
It's harsh that Fyfe's limited season (where Freo crashed out) has seen me place him second after Mitchell played every game and had one of the most dominant finals series in history on the way to flag success but I did consider Fyfe No 1 in the season prior (despite missing the same number of games) and at worst No 2 for 2015.
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Bontempelli was better. A couple of 3 to 4 coaches votes finals by Daicos don't change that when Bont didn't have a chance to play. If you pop Bontempelli in that Collingwood side for finals instead of Daicos, they win them more comfortably.
However this is the Fadgelow. One of the main principles is that if Daicos is somewhat close, you should rig it so that he comes out number 1. Not every time, but mostly. So 2023 and 2025 he will have him 1st, but not 2024 so that the facade of "unbiased integrity" is there.
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I'm not so sure it was innocuous - it was the second time in four rounds he'd done the same thing (he previously did it to Tex Walker) and he got fined by the MRO for the knee to Fyfe.
Fyfe and the club doctor are both on record saying that the groin injury that caused Fyfe to miss a couple of later games in 2015 was down to changes in his running patterns when recovering from the corkie - so more an indirect cause from the Mitchell snipe.
There are still some Freo fans who blame the Mitchell knee for the eventual leg fracture in the prelim - but that's clearly not true.
As for Mitchell, I think he's shown throughout his career - including as he's moved into coaching - that he has one of the best footy brains going around. He's also not a clumsy player. I just don't buy that it was an accidental act.
I think you're supporting my position that Fyfe's run that season is the most dominant of the last 10 years because you didn't cite anyone since. As an aside, I think his form from 2013/14/15/16 is consistently overlooked. Even in the last couple of days Matthew Lloyd has published his list of best players in his time in the game and with respect to some of the great players in the back half of his list, their inclusion ahead of Fyfe is mind-blowing.
I guess in part it's because we've had six seasons of Fyfe trying to get back on the park but unfortunately being a shadow of his former self - compared to someone like Danger who is solidifying his standing in the game with some exceptional games in his twilight years. But outside of GAJ - there isn't a player from the last 20 years that comes close to Fyfe's peak run at the start of 2014 (and yes that includes Dusty).
- Thread starter
- #57
Yeah, I'm sorry.
That's how the Fadgelow works.
Daicos was leading EVERY individual award COMFORTABLY, before the leg injury, and Bont was able to MARGINALLY overtake him in 2 of the 3 awards.
Finals always need to be considered - it's not Daicos' fault that Bont's team didn't qualify for finals, and Daicos' team did. With Daicos being influential in both finals wins, including a premiership.
Heeney and Daicos were neck and neck in 2024, and if there was any doubt, Heeney put that to bed with 2 magnificent finals performances to put his team into a Grand Final. Those games were a big reason for Heeney winning the Fadgelow, despite an injury affected Grand Final.
Neale too overtook Daicos in 2024 after a fantastic finals series despite an inferior home and away season.
It works both ways.
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Heeney and Neale did receive 20+ coaches votes though right, even without the grand final adjustment.
Neale a 9 (equal BOG), 9 (BOG), 0 and 4 (4th BOG).
Heeney 2x 10's (BOG) and a 0 (in-game injury 1st quarter).
If you just gave them a couple of 3s and 4s for finals coaches votes it doesn't move the needle much. Multiple BOGs in finals is enough to do so.
It's not Daicos' fault but he did miss the QF and a few H&A games. It's also not Bontempelli's fault that happened to Daicos.
I don't think many people would have Daicos winning the Real MVP in any year so far. Close, but not quite. But we might as well get on with you rigging this one.
It's unclear why you haven't updated it after prelim week. Cameron 3 goals/3 coaches votes, Smith 2nd BOG, Rowell clear Brownlow win and Daicos doesn't add to his coaches votes (nor does Holmes). McCluggage after a slow start to finals has had back to back monster performances and so should be rising.
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Smith probably the only one who can steal the Fadgelow off Daics with a big GF
- Thread starter
- #60
And Neale came from a long way back to overtake Daicos.
Absolute rubbish.
Finishes in the 3 main individual awards:
Daicos - 1st, 2nd, 4th
Rowell - 1st, 3rd, ????
Smith - Eq. 1st, 3rd, ????
Anderson - Eq. 1st, Eq. 6th, ????
Dawson - 2nd, 4th, 6th
Regardless of the how, even looking at the finishing positions, Daicos has the best record. So if this is your single point of reference (and its not for me), it means Daicos has to be overtaken with finals performances.
Where does he finish on the Ayres vote table? Finals are pretty damn important, as you say.
2nd and 4th for Daicos in the two systems that vote game by game means Rowell's comfortable 1st place in the Brownlow + more Ayres votes puts him ahead.
2nd BOG in a prelim, 6 votes (twice as many as Daicos in the 2023 prelim) means Smith is ahead. A real shocker in the GF could set him back.
Cameron with 88 goals - 5 of them in finals - the clear best forward in the comp all season. I'm not sure why he's being dismissed unless you only assess midfielders.
If McLuggage is BOG and wins the Ayres medal he surely goes ahead of everyone.
By the way a 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed finish for Daicos is incredibly good work the past 3 seasons (although he is trending down year-on-year). I reckon he collects a 1st in 2026 that gets the monkey off the back.
Is there a rule where I have to rank Daicos worse than you do each season? If you are fair there is every chance I rate him the same or higher.
Poor grand finals from Smith or Cameron could set them back. They should be ahead in the rolling table. McCluggage should have closed a fair bit of distance to also be in striking range. But you aren't even updating your rolling table anyway, as you have Daicos locked in at 1 and have lost interest now that he is no longer playing.
- Thread starter
- #68
Haven't lost interest at all.
Analysis goes 'in camera' for the final two weeks, to build the suspense.
Cats supporter has 2 x Geelong players in the top 2. No bias there of course.
As far as I can see, your last table had:
1. Daicos
2. Anderson
3. Dawson
Yikes.
Anderson had 3 coaches votes in an elimination final (5th BOG) and then had a shocker in the semi final. Equal 6th in the Brownlow, equal 1st in the Coaches Association, outside top 5 of League MVP.
Dawson 6th in the Coaches Association, 2nd in the League MVP, 4th in the Brownlow. 2 really poor finals.
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- Thread starter
- #70
After yesterday's game I have a clear order of the top 3 players in the Fadgelow, with the difference between 4th and 8th negligible.
Podium finishers with rationale will be announced over the coming days.
Stay tuned.
Podium finishers with rationale will be announced over the coming days.
Stay tuned.
Of course no bias shown by a cats supporter any similarities with a pies supporter showing bias
Or are the blinkers glued on
- Thread starter
- #73
The 2025 season has finished and we now have all the data to determine who the Most Valuable Players in the competition were in 2025.
Despite really strong seasons from the likes of Nasiah Wanganeen Milera, Caleb Serong and Marcus Bontempelli (again), no players from teams outside to Top 8 were in the mix for a Top 5 finish prior to playing finals, and as we all know, finals are an extremely important input to this algorithm.
Home and Away Awards:
Finals Performances (Ranking of best to worst finals performances) - PlAyEr RaTiNg added for the LOLs:
Finishing order in the Fadgelow to be released in subsequent posts.
Despite really strong seasons from the likes of Nasiah Wanganeen Milera, Caleb Serong and Marcus Bontempelli (again), no players from teams outside to Top 8 were in the mix for a Top 5 finish prior to playing finals, and as we all know, finals are an extremely important input to this algorithm.
Home and Away Awards:
Finals Performances (Ranking of best to worst finals performances) - PlAyEr RaTiNg added for the LOLs:
Finishing order in the Fadgelow to be released in subsequent posts.
Anyone going to be surprised in who Fadgy announces as his winner? Daicos anyone?
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