The Real Federal Politics Discussion Thread (No Left v Right)

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Isn't it lovely that we can all attack ScoMos religious beliefs.



Stuff all hand clappers out there. Like Keating choosing his token AFL team, he went for Collingwood, if you were choosing a token denomination to follow then you would choose the one with decent market share and least offensive to non believers ie COE.
I like the idea of a creationist being such a big proponent for coal.
 

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Sep 29, 2003
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In this context, I find this article relating to Labor and behavioural economics interesting.

https://theconversation.com/3-lesso...bill-shortens-labor-party-forgot-about-117404

I don't understand how they get this stuff so wrong.

This is how I see policy making. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Party comes up with areas that they would like to make better ie hospitals, cancer care etc. These areas will therefore need extra funding. Funding has to come from somewhere. Accessing all the data they find they can cut expenses from somethings, raise revenue from others, borrow if neccessary or use existing funds. They then allocate those cuts, extra revenue, borrowings or existing funds to the new funding areas. A simple concept. A budget. All done by a lot of fairly well paid workers.

The next stage is who will these changes impact, how it will impact them and will that impact enable us to form or keep government, so we can enact these changes. This is where all these fairly well paid workers should be earning their pay.

So lets look at one policy, excess franking credits. Regardless of good policy v bad policy (I'm not discussing that) how can it be that this policy is released and then amended with the pensioner guarantee? Was this not analysed to the nth degree prior to being released? If it wasn't then why not?

What about change in behaviour due to new policies. Are they truly analysed honestly and factored into forward estimates?

Policy making has always baffled me.
 
It's all about image at the moment. People aren't smart enough anymore to understand what anything in the world of politics means, outside of the regular political followers and those who work in the sectors they are discussing. People see ScoMo as this man of the people (which he isn't) because he has a beer, watches sport etc. People see Bill as this stiff, never smiling etc. This is how bad our political discussion has become in that people are voting for someone who is more affable rather than the actual policies that may affect them. Obviously some people are and they are influenced by scare campaigns, but a lot are voting on image. In fact I dare say that half the electorate couldn't name more than 3 policies of each party.

This is why I think Albanese has to be the man for the ALP. Even if he's further left than Shorten, I think he can pull off that 'Joe Everyman' look that Shorten probably lacked.
 
Apr 8, 2007
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This is why I think Albanese has to be the man for the ALP. Even if he's further left than Shorten, I think he can pull off that 'Joe Everyman' look that Shorten probably lacked.
While he may be "further left", it is the party who dictate policy positions in reality, not the leader. The leader obviously has some sway, but if he decides to do something radical then he'll be booted out swiftly.
 
I don't understand how they get this stuff so wrong.

This is how I see policy making. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Party comes up with areas that they would like to make better ie hospitals, cancer care etc. These areas will therefore need extra funding. Funding has to come from somewhere. Accessing all the data they find they can cut expenses from somethings, raise revenue from others, borrow if neccessary or use existing funds. They then allocate those cuts, extra revenue, borrowings or existing funds to the new funding areas. A simple concept. A budget. All done by a lot of fairly well paid workers.

The next stage is who will these changes impact, how it will impact them and will that impact enable us to form or keep government, so we can enact these changes. This is where all these fairly well paid workers should be earning their pay.

So lets look at one policy, excess franking credits. Regardless of good policy v bad policy (I'm not discussing that) how can it be that this policy is released and then amended with the pensioner guarantee? Was this not analysed to the nth degree prior to being released? If it wasn't then why not?

What about change in behaviour due to new policies. Are they truly analysed honestly and factored into forward estimates?

Policy making has always baffled me.
"All policy is a response to the problemetization of an issue framed by the policy makers"
 
Oct 3, 2010
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I think Labor's choice of policies and their choice of leader in Bill Shorten where formulated on the belief that they would go to the election in 2019 with Malcolm Turbull in government.
When they in fact realised that they were up against Coco the Clown instead I think they panicked and didn't know how to re-strategise.
 
Sep 15, 2011
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What State the leader comes from is not as important as how the party is going to make it safe for a chunk of traditional Labor voters to vote for Labor again and not for Pauline Hansen et al. That will go a long way to winning back seats in Queensland in my opinion.
Don't look to the Rudd 07 example of how to win in Queensland. By 2007 the One Nation Party in Queensland had one foot in it's grave by then.
Pandering to one state is dangerous; all eyes are naturally on Queensland and Adani was a complicating factor but Labor didn’t increase their vote in WA or NSW either and Victoria barely moved either. The issue goes beyond Queensland and just appointing someone from there doesn’t address the underlying issue at all.
 

Dirty_banchez

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It's all about image at the moment. People aren't smart enough anymore to understand what anything in the world of politics means, outside of the regular political followers and those who work in the sectors they are discussing. People see ScoMo as this man of the people (which he isn't) because he has a beer, watches sport etc. People see Bill as this stiff, never smiling etc. This is how bad our political discussion has become in that people are voting for someone who is more affable rather than the actual policies that may affect them. Obviously some people are and they are influenced by scare campaigns, but a lot are voting on image. In fact I dare say that half the electorate couldn't name more than 3 policies of each party.

I definitely feel this contributed. Some people haven't forgotten the malaise of the Rudd/Gillard years and the role Shorten played in playing kingmaker. Though, I do think Shorten would have beaten both Dutton and Turnbull if those were his opponents.
 

Dirty_banchez

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I felt the economic policies implied were a bit of a stretch. Too much too soon. There was a lot of this ‘top end of town’ narrative that didn’t sit will from my perspective.

If the working class types didn’t vote for Shorten who did they vote for? There was a lot of focus on jobs from Shorten.

I think the working class votes are ending up with PUP and PHON. The angry working class who are doing it tough, who see these international trade deals do nothing but benefit 'inner' city types, who think immigration is driving up house prices and causing crime?

What is the traditional Labor voter these days? Suburban factory workers? Union members? Who is their target audience?
 

GoldenSky

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Pandering to one state is dangerous; all eyes are naturally on Queensland and Adani was a complicating factor but Labor didn’t increase their vote in WA or NSW either and Victoria barely moved either. The issue goes beyond Queensland and just appointing someone from there doesn’t address the underlying issue at all.

Totally agree. There has been a lack of media commentary/reflection this week on where they got it wrong, but what they have focused on is Queensland. ABC News had Lisa Millar back in her Queensland home town tonight trying to obtain the views of locals on coal/jobs etc. Good work, but too late. This "on the ground" journalism should have been done before the election. BUT the problem is this sort of wrap-up seems very superficial. It has the flavour of American metro journalists travelling to a rust belt state for an interview by someone unemployed because of structural change or a London journalist travelling to a deprived area of the UK and doing the same. "Queensland and coal" seems to be the Australian take on this. Sure, massive swings against the LNP in Queensland, but poor results for Labor right across Australia, certainly compared with expectations, which to me indicates Queensland and coal was only a tiny portion of the reason Bill didn't succeed.
 

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Apr 18, 2005
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I think the working class votes are ending up with PUP and PHON. The angry working class who are doing it tough, who see these international trade deals do nothing but benefit 'inner' city types, who think immigration is driving up house prices and causing crime?

What is the traditional Labor voter these days? Suburban factory workers? Union members? Who is their target audience?
I look at my electorate, Chisholm, I spoke to a few people in the area throughout the campaign and they were all a bit 50/50, but the overwhelming consensus was that the economy was a big contributor to a decision. A taxation rate that benefited the majority and a clear message that ‘labor can’t manage your money’ really hit home for lots of people.

People weren’t disagreeing with the climate change initiative by labor, but they were swung by tax policies spread across income brackets that were extensive.

Who is the traditional voter you ask? Well from what I saw the traditional voter is a mix; an inner city type who cares about the environment but isn’t conservative enough to vote liberal, the die hard union types, the double income families of about 140k, and the more up against it lower income earners who won’t go as far as one nation.

The liberal smear campaign was pretty intensive and damaging for labor. They focused on QLD with Adani and then with the economic factor with Victoria. In a time of uncertainty re jobs and wages, it’s ironic that Liberal could actually out play labor on some of its more traditional fronts.

To be honest, I think there’s a lot of confused voters out there who simply harked back to what they feel was the more pertinent and basic marketing message; labor can’t manage an economy - your money, your taxes.
 
Apr 3, 2006
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To be honest, I think there’s a lot of confused voters out there who simply harked back to what they feel was the more pertinent and basic marketing message; labor can’t manage an economy - your money, your taxes.

Which we can all acknowledge is nonsense, in here, surely?
 

GoldenSky

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Seriously? It's all I've seen, everywhere.

They lost, they're the opposition, they're irrelevant. Time to focus on the government and start holding them to account, surely?

I mean the media reflecting on where they got it wrong, not Labor - Labor members have been fleshing the reasons out. Tony Wright and David Crowe have finally done some analysis today on this issue. But from people like Andrew Probyn or Laura Tingle there has been little.
 
Sep 15, 2011
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I think the working class votes are ending up with PUP and PHON. The angry working class who are doing it tough, who see these international trade deals do nothing but benefit 'inner' city types, who think immigration is driving up house prices and causing crime?

What is the traditional Labor voter these days? Suburban factory workers? Union members? Who is their target audience?
I know it's not helpful to be condescending to some voters, but working class people voting for a corrupt billionaire in Palmer can only be described as extremely confused. He doesn't work for their interests, he didn't work for their interests last time he was in Parliament, why in the hell would you vote for him again.
 

Lebbo73

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I don’t think Albanese will be. I think labor will realise the ways of their errors and put in a leader that’s more right leaning. Labor can’t afford Albanese, he is just two left. Labor lost because Bill played the ‘poor union boy fighting the top end of town’. Please, learn your market Bill.
I thought Albo was the best choice and should have been the opposite leader instead of Shorten. I was wrong. Albo’s beliefs are too far away from what mainstream Australians want. He would be easy pickings.
Joel Fitzgibbon, come on down. You really should be putting your hand up. Surely the powerful Labor right faction would back him.
 
Joel Fitzgibbon, come on down. You really should be putting your hand up. Surely the powerful Labor right faction would back him.
Resigned from his defence ministry post in 2009 for breaching the Ministerial code of conduct, had a few controversies before that.
Personally I don't want him near any position of real responsibility, and in any case I'd expect if he took the top job NewCorp would have a field day with him.
 

Lebbo73

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We've reached the point where geography is important.

Labor has to choose a leader from either Western Sydney or Queensland if it wants to seriously challenge at the next election, Queenslanders hate Victorians.
Labor would do well to kidnap Bob Brown as well to avoid another convoy which surely did more harm than good.
That convey did zero to help anything it was supposed to
It and all the animal activists probably helped the Greens win Senate seats in WA, NSW and maybe Qld. However, it definitely cost Labor seats across the Eastern seaboard.
 

Lebbo73

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Resigned from his defence ministry post in 2009 for breaching the Ministerial code of conduct, had a few controversies before that.
Personally I don't want him near any position of real responsibility, and in any case I'd expect if he took the top job NewCorp would have a field day with him.
I can’t even remember this. The Australian public wouldn’t even care about this anymore. Short memories and all of that.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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I thought Albo was the best choice and should have been the opposite leader instead of Shorten. I was wrong. Albo’s beliefs are too far away from what mainstream Australians want. He would be easy pickings.
Joel Fitzgibbon, come on down. You really should be putting your hand up. Surely the powerful Labor right faction would back him.
Personally don’t see why Jim Chalmers didn’t get through, I mean I just don’t know if Albanese can cut it with the inner city higher income earning labor voters.
 

Lebbo73

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Personally don’t see why Jim Chalmers didn’t get through, I mean I just don’t know if Albanese can cut it with the inner city higher income earning labor voters.
I reckon a deal was made between the two left and right factions (sorry thread starter) when they made Bill leader nearly 6 years ago.
 
Personally don’t see why Jim Chalmers didn’t get through, I mean I just don’t know if Albanese can cut it with the inner city higher income earning labor voters.

Albo is just more identifiable and well known to the average voter. You would be hard pressed to find a voter here in WA who even knows who Jim Chalmers is.

The reality is that elections are becoming more and more presidential and choice of leader is critical to electoral success.
 

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