The real legacy of Trump

[Sweet Jesus]

I wouldn’t say new base, I’d say there were some disaffected people who went “this guy is outside the system let’s see what happens if we vote for him”.

Not exactly a new base per se.

See I disagree with that, I think a lot of the rusted on cultists are disenfranchised working class people from the rust belt or fly over states who traditionally would not have voted GOP. Hence my reference to Howard’s Battlers who are also mostly ex working class people who would have once voted Labor more than Liberal.

Sure, a small percentage of folks in the rust belt who voted Obama-Obama-Trump, for example.

But the grass roots/populist wing of the GOP existed before Trump came along.

Consider, who were the voters who loved Sarah Palin? These people were around long before Trump came down the escalator.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Just to clarify I am not saying Trump is growing the GOP base. I am saying he is attacking new voters but that comes at the expense of more establishment GOP voters, hence we get things like the Lincoln Project.

But he's not expanding his vote share - that's what matters.

He can attract as many new voters as he likes but if his vote share remains at 46 per cent, what difference does it make?

He's still going to have to chart a statistically unlikely course through swing states despite losing the popular vote overall.

I agree mostly with what you are saying - maybe where I have not expressed myself too well is I don’t see the grass roots GOP voters as traditional GOP voters - but I accept as you say a lot of them have always been there.

But they are. Who do you think has been voting for the GOP in Alabama and North Dakota and Kentucky all these years? These are the white working class in the flyover states, or the Christian right who supported Bush. These are grass roots supporters who have been part of the GOP base for decades. Why do you think McCain picked Palin as VP?

Have you heard of the southern strategy?

 

[QuietB]

But he's not expanding his vote share - that's what matters.

He can attract as many new voters as he likes but if his vote share remains at 46 per cent, what difference does it make?

But they are. Who do you think has been voting for the GOP in Alabama and North Dakota and Kentucky all these years? Why do you think McCain picked Palin as VP? These are grass roots supporters who have been part of the GOP base for decades.

Have you heard of the southern strategy?

Agree that they have been there a long time. And the Tea Party movement who Palin helped grow is a huge part of Trumps base. That is the only part of the GOP that has grown - maybe/probably that growth has peaked.

If you broke the 46% down between establishment and grass roots the grass roots has definitely grown IMO.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Agree that they have been there a long time. And the Tea Party movement who Palin helped grow is a huge part of Trumps base. That is the only part of the GOP that has grown - maybe/probably that growth has peaked.

Well, the Tea Party was founded after the 2008 election, after Palin shuffled back to Alaska.

But it's not just the Tea Party. Who do you think the Christian right in middle America has been voting for since the 1980s? The GOP has been cultivating the white working class in these flyover states since the 1960s.

If you broke the 46% down between establishment and grass roots the grass roots has definitely grown IMO.

I'm not sure what point this makes? I mean, Trump presented himself as a populist rather than an establishment candidate. Of course he draws support more heavily from that part of the GOP.

 

[JackOutback]

I would suggest Trump did add some people to the base, the real fringe white supremacists and racists that probably would never vote Republican because they weren’t extreme enough for their liking (would never vote Democrats either, they are people that just wouldn’t turn out otherwise). The problem with this is it invigorated an equal number of people on the far left that would probably never vote for Biden because he’s part of the political machine to vote Democrats, so the share of the vote remained unchanged.

 

[Saint]

Shouldn't overlook the impact of voter turnout. Trump is getting the disenfranchised to turn out to vote for him. But not only that, he's invigorated them enough to join the party machinery and therefore take over the party in primaries.

The section of the GOP which has always run the party in their own interests (the top 10%) are now finding themselves in the minority in their own party. If the majority figure out that the 10% have been ripping them off the whole time, the party will truly fall apart. But as long as the deplorables keep thinking xenophobia and trickle down economics actually work, the 'establishment' will continue to pass legislation like they did last time which gave themselves massive tax cuts and a few token xenophobic acts to keep the morons compliant.

 

[E Shed]

Yes I suspect king maker too. They should turn the 2024 Republican primary into a season of the apprentice, get Trump back on prime time tv.

Its perfect for him, he can then blame the candidate or anyone else if things go wrong.

I think that would be attractive for him, the Presidency creates 2 main attractions for him as far as I can tell.
One is attention, feeling important, being worshipped. This is probably his primary driver and there is no job in the world where people have to kiss your ass as much as being President.
Second the Presidency provides him with the opportunity to enrich himself personally and protects him from the stupid criminal s**t he can't help himself from doing if he thinks he's getting one over on someone.

One the downside I really don't think he could stand to lose again. No matter how much he tried to set it up in advance no one is going to swallow election fraud again and he would probably rather not risk being humiliated again.

BTW the white trash vote has always been for Republican as they are the ones who shout loudest about gun rights and enable racism/decry gay/trans rights and claim Jesus as their saviour.

 

[Blue1980]

See I disagree with that, I think a lot of the rusted on cultists are disenfranchised working class people from the rust belt or fly over states who traditionally would not have voted GOP. Hence my reference to Howard’s Battlers who are also mostly ex working class people who would have once voted Labor more than Liberal.

I think many would of voted for no one instead of being dems.

 

[Blue1980]

I think that would be attractive for him, the Presidency creates 2 main attractions for him as far as I can tell.
One is attention, feeling important, being worshipped. This is probably his primary driver and there is no job in the world where people have to kiss your ass as much as being President.
Second the Presidency provides him with the opportunity to enrich himself personally and protects him from the stupid criminal sh*t he can't help himself from doing if he thinks he's getting one over on someone.

One the downside I really don't think he could stand to lose again. No matter how much he tried to set it up in advance no one is going to swallow election fraud again and he would probably rather not risk being humiliated again.

BTW the white trash vote has always been for Republican as they are the ones who shout loudest about gun rights and enable racism/decry gay/trans rights and claim Jesus as their saviour.

Yes there is the being worshipped part to being president, but the part Trump can’t deal with is the being hated part which any president in a democratic country has to deal with.

Hence why Trump would like to do away with the democratic part.

Regardless of who is president at least 40% of the population will hate or dislike you at any given time.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Shouldn't overlook the impact of voter turnout. Trump is getting the disenfranchised to turn out to vote for him.

Presumably Biden did the same? Particularly in Georgia, for example, where the Democratic vote went from 1.8 million in 2016 to 2.4 million in 2020.

On the other hand, the number of votes generally goes up from one election to the next. It's not necessarily evidence of anything beyond incremental growth in population and therefore the number of eligible voters. But those numbers in Georgia suggest something pretty dramatic occurred.

The section of the GOP which has always run the party in their own interests (the top 10%) are now finding themselves in the minority in their own party. If the majority figure out that the 10% have been ripping them off the whole time, the party will truly fall apart. But as long as the deplorables keep thinking xenophobia and trickle down economics actually work, the 'establishment' will continue to pass legislation like they did last time which gave themselves massive tax cuts and a few token xenophobic acts to keep the morons compliant.

Indeed. Trump harnessed the grassroots/populist base that had been taken for granted by the establishment and used them to execute a hostile takeover of the party. This was my take mid-2020 and I think it still holds up.

The question is whether Trump - or any GOP candidate - can pander to that base while also aiming to be a majority candidate. Trump doesn't even pretend to try. He wants to win with 46 per cent, which is a lower vote share than Romney managed in 2012. That's the GOP plan these days. It's not great. trump was never a popular president. His approval rating never topped 50 per cent. The plan would need to be to win with 46 or 47 per cent.

I mean, did you know that only one Republican presidential candidate has managed 50 per cent vote share since 1990? That was George W. Bush in 2004, when he managed 50.7 per cent. A wartime president running against an easily caricatured Democrat and he just scraped above 50. That's a sobering equation for the GOP. They basically need to keep Democratic turnout low and try to thread the needle in a handful of swing states. But winning a majority vote share seems a distant concern.

On a separate note, if you compare the numbers from 2016 to 2020, Trump's vote share remained stable, but whereas Clinton got 48 per cent and lost, Biden got 51 per cent and won. That 3 per cent made the difference. Those people voted for third party candidates in 2016 but Biden managed to peel that away in 2020 and it likely made the difference. If the GOP vote share remains somewhere in the mid-40s, the appeal of third parties may determine the result of future elections. If those third parties limit Democratic vote share to something like 48 per cent, then the GOP has a chance. If not, then the Democratic candidate hits 50 per cent and likely wins. You'd think third parties would be a negligible concern in US elections but given the slender margins, those extra 1-2 per cent become increasingly important.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I think that would be attractive for him, the Presidency creates 2 main attractions for him as far as I can tell.
One is attention, feeling important, being worshipped. This is probably his primary driver and there is no job in the world where people have to kiss your ass as much as being President.
Second the Presidency provides him with the opportunity to enrich himself personally and protects him from the stupid criminal sh*t he can't help himself from doing if he thinks he's getting one over on someone.

I think this is where being kingmaker would appeal to him. He can cast himself as the leader of the party and simply anoint the presidential candidate, like in The Apprentice. There's still plenty of opportunity to grift without doing as much work.

 

[E Shed]

I think this is where being kingmaker would appeal to him. He can cast himself as the leader of the party and simply anoint the presidential candidate, like in The Apprentice. There's still plenty of opportunity to grift without doing as much work.

Definitely a lot of appeal. I still think though that he would miss the pomp & ceremony of the White House and world leaders coming to kiss his ass and the world hanging on his every word. The attention and public adulation.
Plus he can't break the law with impunity which is a huge part of why he wanted to stay President I reckon.
On the plus side thought I think he found it frustrating having to play by the rules and if he's an unofficial kingmaker he can fire anyone, take revenge on anyone without any checks and balances, not that he paid much attention to them but they still kept him from some of his worst impulses.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Definitely a lot of appeal. I still think though that he would miss the pomp & ceremony of the White House and world leaders coming to kiss his ass and the world hanging on his every word. The attention and public adulation.

It's too much work. He can get the attention and adulation without it.

 

[JackOutback]

I think this is where being kingmaker would appeal to him. He can cast himself as the leader of the party and simply anoint the presidential candidate, like in The Apprentice. There's still plenty of opportunity to grift without doing as much work.

And if they lose, it’s the candidate’s fault.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The basic question...

Google Podcasts

podcasts.google.com

 

[Saint]

Presumably Biden did the same? Particularly in Georgia, for example, where the Democratic vote went from 1.8 million in 2016 to 2.4 million in 2020.

On the other hand, the number of votes generally goes up from one election to the next. It's not necessarily evidence of anything beyond incremental growth in population and therefore the number of eligible voters. But those numbers in Georgia suggest something pretty dramatic occurred.

Indeed. Trump harnessed the grassroots/populist base that had been taken for granted by the establishment and used them to execute a hostile takeover of the party. This was my take mid-2020 and I think it still holds up.

The question is whether Trump - or any GOP candidate - can pander to that base while also aiming to be a majority candidate. Trump doesn't even pretend to try. He wants to win with 46 per cent, which is a lower vote share than Romney managed in 2012. That's the GOP plan these days. It's not great. trump was never a popular president. His approval rating never topped 50 per cent. The plan would need to be to win with 46 or 47 per cent.

I mean, did you know that only one Republican presidential candidate has managed 50 per cent vote share since 1990? That was George W. Bush in 2004, when he managed 50.7 per cent. A wartime president running against an easily caricatured Democrat and he just scraped above 50. That's a sobering equation for the GOP. They basically need to keep Democratic turnout low and try to thread the needle in a handful of swing states. But winning a majority vote share seems a distant concern.

On a separate note, if you compare the numbers from 2016 to 2020, Trump's vote share remained stable, but whereas Clinton got 48 per cent and lost, Biden got 51 per cent and won. That 3 per cent made the difference. Those people voted for third party candidates in 2016 but Biden managed to peel that away in 2020 and it likely made the difference. If the GOP vote share remains somewhere in the mid-40s, the appeal of third parties may determine the result of future elections. If those third parties limit Democratic vote share to something like 48 per cent, then the GOP has a chance. If not, then the Democratic candidate hits 50 per cent and likely wins. You'd think third parties would be a negligible concern in US elections but given the slender margins, those extra 1-2 per cent become increasingly important.

The hardest thing to do is to continue to convince the deplorables that you're governing for them, even when you're exclusively passing legislation for the rich.

THIS is what Trump did masterfully. He couldn't give less of a sh!t what poor people are doing. He never converses with them one-on-one, he hates them.

But they're all convinced he loves them. This is the most insane part. They're a gullible lot by definition, but they'll never be the majority.

Any candidate other than Trump would also have to achieve the same and I can't see it happening out of the current lot of politicians because all politicians are tainted in the eyes of the unwashed.
The only possibility is another Trump.

 

[Chief]

all politicians are tainted in the eyes of the unwashed.
The only possibility is another Trump.

And the Republicans let it happen to themselves.

 

[Seeds]

But he's not expanding his vote share - that's what matters.

He can attract as many new voters as he likes but if his vote share remains at 46 per cent, what difference does it make?

He's still going to have to chart a statistically unlikely course through swing states despite losing the popular vote overall.

But they are. Who do you think has been voting for the GOP in Alabama and North Dakota and Kentucky all these years? These are the white working class in the flyover states, or the Christian right who supported Bush. These are grass roots supporters who have been part of the GOP base for decades. Why do you think McCain picked Palin as VP?

Have you heard of the southern strategy?

Trump got 46 percent of the vote in a year in which 400 thousand americans died due to a pandemic that he continuously underplayed and mismanaged and sent the economy into a deep recession. in 4 years time that will be long forgotton by most people.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Trump got 46 percent of the vote in a year in which 400 thousand americans died due to a pandemic that he continuously underplayed and mismanaged and sent the economy into a deep recession. in 4 years time that will be long forgotton by most people.

He got 46 per cent in 2016 as well. Look at his approval rating over the course of 4 or 5 years.

He has never been a majority candidate.

The path to the WH involves getting about 47 per cent, suppressing the Democratic turnout and then scraping home in a handful of swing states. This is what he did in 2016. He tried it again in 2020 but it didn't work, perhaps because people never disliked Biden as intensely as they disliked Clinton.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

HARDtalk - Evan McMullin: What next for anti-Trump Republicans? - BBC Sounds

Is it time to build a new conservative party from scratch?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Blue1980]

He got 46 per cent in 2016 as well. Look at his approval rating over the course of 4 or 5 years.

He has never been a majority candidate.

The path to the WH involves getting about 47 per cent, suppressing the Democratic turnout and then scraping home in a handful of swing states. This is what he did in 2016. He tried it again in 2020 but it didn't work, perhaps because people never disliked Biden as intensely as they disliked Clinton.

Also probably because 2016 was against the odds as well, as 2018 and 2020 have shown.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I think there is still a decent chance he doesn't actually run. His intervention in the 2022 midterms will be a revealing indicator.

I suspect Trump fancies himself as kingmaker. He can anoint his preferred GOP candidate, like in The Apprentice. If he can carve out that niche for himself, isn't that better than being the guy in the WH and actually having to do the job?

I think we'll get a preview of that before the 2022 midterms. Certain Trumpy candidates will come and kiss the ring and maybe he'll back them in primaries. That would be right up his alley, surely.

And so it goes...

Trump to decide on whether to make another White House run after 2022 midterms

Former President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would decide whether to make another run for the White House after congressional elections in November 2022.

www.reuters.com

 

[Saint]

He got 46 per cent in 2016 as well. Look at his approval rating over the course of 4 or 5 years.

He has never been a majority candidate.

The path to the WH involves getting about 47 per cent, suppressing the Democratic turnout and then scraping home in a handful of swing states. This is what he did in 2016. He tried it again in 2020 but it didn't work, perhaps because people never disliked Biden as intensely as they disliked Clinton.

I think the Clinton stuff worked on some voters, Dem turnout was down. Plus there was a lot of complacency about Trump

a) not having a chance or
b) not being that bad.

By 2018 and 2020 that had been disproven. Turnout for Dems was at records and Trump was on his way out.

If he tries it again in 2024, I can see it sparking the same level of turnout and without a Pandemic, I think the suppression of mail-in ballots won't help him enough in enough states. People will line up round the block to continue to vote against Trump. I'm sure the core Trumpists will turn out, but I'm not sure after 4 years of Biden that he'll be able to generate enough hate when they get Medicare and actual support from the Govt to turn out the centrist GOPers.

Be interesting to see with no Trump on the ticket what the turnout in 2022 is like. We all saw what happened in Georgia where the GOP turnout was down. Dems probably complacent again with no Trump to vote against.

Supreme Court will have shot down a lot of the new state laws aimed at suppression by 2024 too. I'm surprised they went so early with those. I guess in Georgia it's aimed at getting Warnock out in 2022 and the good-old-boys back in.

 

[Present Not Past]

Trump hopes Meghan Markle runs in 2024

Donald Trump says he would strongly consider running again in 2024 if Meghan Markle threw her hat in the ring, saying he’s “not a fan of hers”.

www.news.com.au

I don't know what's weirder - Meghan Markle or Donald Trump running for President in 2024.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I think the Clinton stuff worked on some voters, Dem turnout was down. Plus there was a lot of complacency about Trump

a) not having a chance or
b) not being that bad.

By 2018 and 2020 that had been disproven. Turnout for Dems was at records and Trump was on his way out.

Undoubtedly there were many people turned off by Clinton. Not just by Trump calling her "Crooked Hillary" but by 20 years of RW smears before that. Biden is not in the same universe as an engine of RW resentment.

If he tries it again in 2024, I can see it sparking the same level of turnout and without a Pandemic, I think the suppression of mail-in ballots won't help him enough in enough states. People will line up round the block to continue to vote against Trump. I'm sure the core Trumpists will turn out, but I'm not sure after 4 years of Biden that he'll be able to generate enough hate when they get Medicare and actual support from the Govt to turn out the centrist GOPers.

I'm not sure any of that is a given. It really depends on the performance of this administration and the state of the economy in four years' time. I'm certainly not convinced that Harris will be a great presidential candidate or any kind of shoo-in should she be the nominee in 2024.

You talk about the effect of the pandemic on turnout but the pandemic probably prevented Trump being re-elected. It destroyed the economy and brutally exposed the limits of his governing style. If he runs again in 2024, essentially campaigning as an outsider critical of "elites" and business as usual, he's probably more effective in that mode than campaigning as an incumbent trying to defend his own record.

Be interesting to see with no Trump on the ticket what the turnout in 2022 is like. We all saw what happened in Georgia where the GOP turnout was down. Dems probably complacent again with no Trump to vote against.

Surely eveeryone expects the Republicans to retake the Senate.