Hot Topic The Rebuild, est. 2023 and/or 2025

[BomberManU]

What was it that made people think we would be better this year than last?

Got games into kids last year, another pre-season under Scott to reinforce game plan, relatively injury free over the off season, despite being young we still have a number of experienced players - don't think it's out of reality to expect improvement and who knows, by the end of the season there might be. (Not talking 'win a final' improvement)
IMO, the loss v Hawks was fine, first up. Last week wasn't fine, no matter where you are in your development.

 

[eth-dog]

Let's look at our acquisitions from 2020 (both trade and draft) which is when we started the current build in earnest.

2020:

Trade/FA: Peter Wright, Jye Caldwell, Nick Hind
Draft: Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Josh Eyre, Cody Brand.
SSP: Alec Waterman, Kaine Baldwin

Perhaps a little top heavy but it was probably the worst draft to have three top 10 picks in. Outside of Holmes the others behind them in the first round all have their own issues as well.

2021:

Trade/FA: Jake Kelly
Draft: Ben Hobbs, Alastair Lord, Garrett McDonagh, Patrick Voss
MSD/SSP: Sam Durham, Nic Martin, Tex Wanganeen

This year was saved by two very good MSD/SSP selections in Durham and Martin but otherwise it lacks a coherent vision between Voss, Lord, McDonagh. Hobbs the jury is still out on.

2022:

Trade/FA: Will Setterfield, Sam Weideman
Draft: Elijah Tsatas, Lewis Hayes, Alwyn Davey jr, Jayden Davey, Rhett Montgomerie, Anthony Munkara
MSD/SSP: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Jye Menzie

This draft looks better so far than the first two. Tsatas is showing his wares, but the big one sticking out is the trade of Mass. Now I was neither here nor there about it at the time but it's bad. Very bad.

2023:

Trade/FA: Todd Goldstein, Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Xavier Duursma
Draft: Nate Caddy, Luamon Lual, Archie Roberts, Vigo Visentini
MSD/SSP: Jaidyn Hunter

Caddy is the big win and Roberts had looked good too. Duursma is a smart acquisition given how long he'll be around for and both McKay and Gresham have had their moments. Lual I'm not convinced about but a big fan of Vigo.

2024:

Trade/FA: N/A
Draft: Isaac Kako, Kayle Gerreyn, Angus Clarke, Rhys Unwin, Zak Johnson, Archer Day-Wicks
MSD/SSP: Saad El-Hawli, Jaxon Prior, Tom Edwards

Very happy with what I've seen so far but I still have question marks over the three at the bottom, all three need to establish themselves as best 23 this year to stay on the list IMO

Overall I like our list build so far. Patience is required for us and we'll see where we're at at the end of the year.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Geez,

where do you start.

1) Terrible drafting
2) terrible training standards. ergo terrible player development
3) Injuries.

I firmly believe that if Fantasia and Daniher were healthy, we would have won finals. We never saw the fwdline of Fantasia, Tippa, Stringer and Daniher due to constant injuries. It was always a piecemeal team.

 

[faible]

More the fact that we went bargain basement with Coach and Assistants, and everything else really.

This.

We totally and utterly failed as a club to transition in to the professional era. It was a club-wide failure.

Sheedy was your classic old style coach that did all of the things, which was fine in the semi professional era, and that transitional era through the 90s and early 00s even.

We totally underfunded our football department resources post-Sheedy, not at all keeping up with how modern AFL clubs run. We then resourced the hell out of it with Hird, saw that blow up, appointed Worsfold as a caretaker, Rutten was drastically under resourced and maybe, just maybe, Scott and Vozzo are making us a professional organisation.

 

[MightyDon]

I saw this thread and just assumed someone time travelled back from 2030

 

[Darealrath]

Goes back to the late 90s and early 2000s when decisions were taken to strip back spending on core business and move to Colonial like they were running a for-profit.

It's masked because we were on top on and off field at that time but that's when the malaise started.

 

[Squeaky]

Goes back to the late 90s and early 2000s when decisions were taken to strip back spending on core business and move to Colonial like they were running a for-profit.

It's masked because we were on top on and off field at that time but that's when the malaise started.

That's a fair comment.
Rushed off to Marvel and locked in the deal but shut out plenty of the fan base from attendance.

 

[Yoda_]

Leigh Montagna trying to debunk how our list should be in the sweet spot.

I agree to an extent but age doesn't equal experience.

Sure, we had something like 16/23 in that 'sweet spot age wise but all good to be age ok, but games equal is so far unbalanced. 10/23 had played less than 50 games with a further 8 less than 100.

 

[Gumby2Hurley]

Geez,

where do you start.

1) Terrible drafting
2) terrible training standards. ergo terrible player development
3) Injuries.

I firmly believe that if Fantasia and Daniher were healthy, we would have won finals. We never saw the fwdline of Fantasia, Tippa, Stringer and Daniher due to constant injuries. It was always a piecemeal team.

that first game back after the 34 got suspended against the hawks gave me hope… was 8 years ago and in that space the hawks have managed to rebuild again. fk

 

[ant555]

The question for now is, can you have one of these with a tactically limited (inept) coach?

You can work on a style of play. It is a collaboration. The Hawks plan was not just the Sam Mitchell's plan.
If Scott is cycling through the list (young and old) how can you really expect a lot tactically ? Even more so if it is basically a C grade list.

 

[Yoda_]

Seems it won't be a rebuild, more a forced reshuffle with some important players getting injured in recent weeks.

Almost forces Scott to give more responsibility to the younger players.




Will watch with keen interest how this goes

 

[ghostdog]

Well I think it went wrong with this 2020 leadership group which was given to me by Google AI Overview.

• 2020 Leadership Group:
  In 2020, the Essendon Football Club named a leadership group consisting of James Hird, Mark Thompson, Jack Clarke, Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel, Joe Daniher, Kyle Langford, Matthew Egan, Simon Goodwin, Tom Bellchambers, Tom Cutler, Zach Merrett, Adam Saad, and Alwyn Davey.

 

[ghostdog]

Let's look at our acquisitions from 2020 (both trade and draft) which is when we started the current build in earnest.

2020:

Trade/FA: Peter Wright, Jye Caldwell, Nick Hind
Draft: Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Josh Eyre, Cody Brand.
SSP: Alec Waterman, Kaine Baldwin

Perhaps a little top heavy but it was probably the worst draft to have three top 10 picks in. Outside of Holmes the others behind them in the first round all have their own issues as well.

2021:

Trade/FA: Jake Kelly
Draft: Ben Hobbs, Alastair Lord, Garrett McDonagh, Patrick Voss
MSD/SSP: Sam Durham, Nic Martin, Tex Wanganeen

This year was saved by two very good MSD/SSP selections in Durham and Martin but otherwise it lacks a coherent vision between Voss, Lord, McDonagh. Hobbs the jury is still out on.

2022:

Trade/FA: Will Setterfield, Sam Weideman
Draft: Elijah Tsatas, Lewis Hayes, Alwyn Davey jr, Jayden Davey, Rhett Montgomerie, Anthony Munkara
MSD/SSP: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Jye Menzie

This draft looks better so far than the first two. Tsatas is showing his wares, but the big one sticking out is the trade of Mass. Now I was neither here nor there about it at the time but it's bad. Very bad.

2023:

Trade/FA: Todd Goldstein, Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Xavier Duursma
Draft: Nate Caddy, Luamon Lual, Archie Roberts, Vigo Visentini
MSD/SSP: Jaidyn Hunter

Caddy is the big win and Roberts had looked good too. Duursma is a smart acquisition given how long he'll be around for and both McKay and Gresham have had their moments. Lual I'm not convinced about but a big fan of Vigo.

2024:

Trade/FA: N/A
Draft: Isaac Kako, Kayle Gerreyn, Angus Clarke, Rhys Unwin, Zak Johnson, Archer Day-Wicks
MSD/SSP: Saad El-Hawli, Jaxon Prior, Tom Edwards

Very happy with what I've seen so far but I still have question marks over the three at the bottom, all three need to establish themselves as best 23 this year to stay on the list IMO

Overall I like our list build so far. Patience is required for us and we'll see where we're at at the end of the year.

So, I need to clear this up in my own brain. List management for the period was;
2020: Dodoro; RFK as National Recruiting Manager
2021: Dodoro; RFK as National Recruiting Manager
2022: Dodoro; RFK as National Recruiting Manager
2023: Dodoro, but he stepped away in September, leaving the trade-draft period for '23 to RFK as National Recruiting Manager
2024: Rosa; RFK as National Recruiting Manager

Is this correct?

I seem to recall also wanting RFK gone as he'd been a Dodoro understudy, but maybe he might be okay after all.
Glad the reigns weren't just handed over to him though.

 

[FlyingV]

We completely missed the boat on needing hard running players who were elite aerobically and skillful. Years of fade-outs to show for it. It was most obvious when we had Watson, Hocking, Heppell and Myers in the middle and got smoked by anyone who had outside run/faded badly every year the longer the season went on.

we insisted on targeting KPPs over and over, and opted for explosive types who were easily gassed.

It will forever blow my mind that many of us have been screaming this on this platform for over a decade - longer- and only now have we got a list manager who is showing signs of prioritising aerobic run and spread traits.

 

[Chief Hopper]

2020 draft. It was supposed to help our spine, instead it was an compromised draft.
Lack of development in our young players.
Too many midget midfielders. Recruiting Hobbs, when we already had Shiel, Parish, Merret, made zero sense. Sure, get more leaders, more runners, but 'things fall apart, the centre does not hold.' Its drags the whole team down. No other team had gone down this route before or since.
Dodoro. Way way too long in the role. Even if he did all the right moves at a time, fresh ideas, and fresh approaches, are essential over time.
Hangover from the saga. Has to account to something here. Recruit new players amongst older players affected by that era, it permeates.

From here though I think we are rebounding. We have answers more or less to all of the issues. Time will tell.

 

[Phone]

I'd say it went wrong when we sacked Matthew Knights and ultimately doomed the early rebuilding work undertaken, setting up another 15 years of nonsense

 

[Phone]

View attachment 2261694

this picture is fire

 

[BrunoV]

Leigh Montagna trying to debunk how our list should be in the sweet spot.

I agree to an extent but age doesn't equal experience.

Sure, we had something like 16/23 in that 'sweet spot age wise but all good to be age ok, but games equal is so far unbalanced. 10/23 had played less than 50 games with a further 8 less than 100.

The list is in a sweet spot if you look at it based on age. I don't like the sole focus on games played because we have a lot of guys who are in that age sweet spot but who have not racked up 100 games / who are not pushing 200 games as a result of injury (e.g. Langford, Laverde, Ridley, Redman, McKay, Draper, Caldwell and Duursma) or who came into the system later (e.g. Durham and Martin) and who have not chalked up the irrelevant milestone. There are also the likes of El Hawli and Edwards who despite playing no games have been in the semi-professional system for years and who should not be considered in the same breath as raw 18 and 19 year olds who having nothing like the same level of experience or physical maturity.

To illustrate the point, Ridley has played 91 games in the time McGrath has played 160. Is anyone seriously going to argue that the additional game time McGrath holds him in better stead as player? Durham and Martin are both 24, had they been drafted at 18 they'd have played 100 games by now (as is the case for Anderson, Jackson, Ash, Pickett and Serong who were drafted in 2019). Granted that the guys I've named are all better players but that's not because they have played 25 more games.

If Laverde and Langford played 200 games, Redman 180, McKay 150 and Durham and Martin 100 and were the same players, it would be used in support of the opposite argument, despite them being the same players.

Caldwell, 25yo/7y, Draper 27/9y, Durham 24/6y, Duursma 25/7y, Gresham 28/10y, Guelfi 28/10y, Jones 24/6y, Langford 29/11y, Martin 24/6y, McGrath 27/9y, McKay 28/10y, Merrett (vet), Parish 28/10y, Perkins 23/5y and Redman (10y) is 15 best 22 players all in their prime years (Category 1). The youngest player (Perkins) is 5th year by age - all years are by age based on the minimum draft age of 18 if the player has been in the system for more than 2 years. Age is the age this year regardless of month born. It doesn't matter whether someone was born in January or December of any given year once he's been in the system a few years.

Next is the players just short of their prime years but who should be clearly AFL standard (Category 2). If Hobbs was at the standard of Durham or Martin in their respective 4th years he would be considered at least the 16th player of Category 1, wouldn't he? Tsatas in his 3rd year could not be seen as being in his prime years but is clearly capable of having an AFL standard impact - see his 11 clearances v Adelaide that everyone liked so much. If his inexperience was such an issue he wouldn't get 11 clearances, would he? We seem to be the only club in the AFL who can't get a small forward up and running by year 3, Davey (21/3y). Bryan (24/6y), Reid (23/5y) and Cox (23/5y) are Category 2 as their height delays their development (which is time it takes to build physical condition, not learn the game). We have at least 6 players in Category 2. That's 21 players between Category 1 and Category 2.

Goldstein (vet), Laverde (29/11y), Menzie (23/5), Prior (24/6y), Setterfield (27,9y), Shiel (vet) and Wright (29, 11y) and are 7 more players who are either in those prime years or veterans who are on the fringe of best 22 (Category 3).

That gives us 28 players which puts us beyond the minimum for a team on game day, the youngest of which are: 1 x 3rd year mid who is already capable of winning 11 clearances in a match and 2 x 5th year talls. How many other teams play 3 year mids and 5th year talls without it being seen as a reason to explain away competitiveness? 17?

El Hawli (a 24 year old who would be a 6th year player) and Edwards (a 25 year old who would be a 7th year player) are both much closer to Category 2 than the kids who would comprise Category 4.

If you accept that, we have 30 players between 21 years of age / year 3 on the list and Goldstein from which to chose a best 23. Maybe 3 of those guys, Davey, Cox and Reid are genuinely not at the level of physical maturity required. I don't see why that should be the case for Davey. Reid is not far off and has demonstrated that he can compete.

The list is in its sweet spot. Our problem is that the list is not good enough for more than the occasional push into week 1 of the finals.

 

[faible]

Football isn't played on paper.

 

[Lore]

The list is in a sweet spot if you look at it based on age. I don't like the sole focus on games played because we have a lot of guys who are in that age sweet spot but who have not racked up 100 games / who are not pushing 200 games as a result of injury (e.g. Langford, Laverde, Ridley, Redman, McKay, Draper, Caldwell and Duursma) or who came into the system later (e.g. Durham and Martin) and who have not chalked up the irrelevant milestone. There are also the likes of El Hawli and Edwards who despite playing no games have been in the semi-professional system for years and who should not be considered in the same breath as raw 18 and 19 year olds who having nothing like the same level of experience or physical maturity.

Milestones become irrelevant once a player can be regarded as 'experienced', but you don't get experience playing AFL football by sitting on the bench, running around in the magoos, or spending 52 weeks in rehab.

El Hawli and Edwards might have semi-professional experience, and they have shown that they can own their positions in 2-3 games each so far, although Edwards comes in and out of games and El Hawli gets lost at half-back. That doesn't mean they're equivalently capable of playing in a grand final and being a general in their respective lines just because they're the same age as players who are capable of that.

It's fine to have a couple of blokes like that in a grand final side (Marlion Pickett..?) but you do need actual experience and leadership in your team, not just a collective total of your trips around the sun.

 

[ButterMill]

Apologies for the intrusion but when did you start training in Tullamarine? I was there the other day and the area lacks a soul. Also very windy. Was wondering if that was part of the juju impacting your mob.

 

[dank420_]

Apologies for the intrusion but when did you start training in Tullamarine? I was there the other day and the area lacks a soul. Also very windy. Was wondering if that was part of the juju impacting your mob.

Windy Hill was also windy.

 

[faible]

Apologies for the intrusion but when did you start training in Tullamarine? I was there the other day and the area lacks a soul. Also very windy. Was wondering if that was part of the juju impacting your mob.

A number of years back, there was a whole kerfuffle with the other sporting clubs who use the Windy Hill precinct (mostly the Bowls club) being unwilling to leave to open up space to redevelop the space to include additional training facilities (for example, where the Bowls club is).

The facility out at Tullamarine is significantly larger than a redeveloped Windy Hill precinct would ever have been, with two training ovals and a rather large hanger equipped for professional sport.

Windy Hill has a bit more of a community feel, and in a way it's sad that they don't train there, but as a professional athlete the Tullamarine facility is far better. It's not hard to get to (by car anyway) since most of our players live on this side of the city, it's got good proximity to the airport, plenty of space.

The clubs issues aren't where it trains, that's probably one of the few truly professional things EFC have done in the past decade or so.

And yes, as above Windy Hill was also actually very windy.

edit:

EFC doesn't own the land at Windy Hill, they lease it from the council (from memory it's a 99 year lease for $1 a year type thing) on the basis that those community clubs can use the space, EFC has no ability to force those clubs to move.

Last I heard, the bowls club was considering a merger to move elsewhere, they'd potentially found a new location for the cricket club, and they had renovation plans that just left the croquet club where it is.

 

[ButterMill]

Windy Hill was also windy.

Then there's no excuse due to environmental factors

I, like many other big footy forum fantasy football tourists, watch Essendon youth closely. It feels like you simply didn't pick the right players and if you did untimely injuries stunted their development.

The inability of Hobbs to penetrate with his kicking, and what looks like a stamina issue is sad because he had the Selwood player comparison which created a soft spot.

Tsatas is at least quicker but his disposal is a real problem.

Both don't seem particularly strong though Hobbs doesn't lack for tackling endeavour.

Find a player it two from those last few drafts (like the look of the young Clark boy) and who knows. You've nailed Caddy and Kako. Could turn around quickly.

 

[DERO]

Then there's no excuse due to environmental factors

I, like many other big footy forum fantasy football tourists, watch Essendon youth closely. It feels like you simply didn't pick the right players and if you did untimely injuries stunted their development.

The inability of Hobbs to penetrate with his kicking, and what looks like a stamina issue is sad because he had the Selwood player comparison which created a soft spot.

Tsatas is at least quicker but his disposal is a real problem.

Both don't seem particularly strong though Hobbs doesn't lack for tackling endeavour.

Find a player it two from those last few drafts (like the look of the young Clark boy) and who knows. You've nailed Caddy and Kako. Could turn around quickly.

We need to do what Geelong does and pay our players and coaching staff outside the salary cap nd then get our former longterm CFO to investigate us when people start to realise that there is more to playing for Geelong than love, surf beaches and no skills sessions at training.