The Rebuild - It's happening whether we admit it or not

[cynical]

Someone who doesn’t understand list management will point to their ages. In reality you want players good enough, regardless of age. If age gaps emerge you can target those specifically, as we have repeatedly proven.

You build a list so that list peaks over 1-3 years you dont build a list so it remains the same or of similar value.

Filling age gaps just means your list is always going to be pretty average, all the club has proven is how to slowly go backwards over a period of 7 years.

We will continually fall down the ladder until we get serious about rebuilding properly, how slow depends on how many more years the club wants to waste recruiting mature age players.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

You build a list so that list peaks over 1-3 years you dont build a list so it remains the same or of similar value.

Filling age gaps just means your list is always going to be pretty average, all the club has proven is how to slowly go backwards over a period of 7 years.

We will continually fall down the ladder until we get serious about rebuilding properly, how slow depends on how many more years the club wants to waste recruiting mature age players.

If we are talking mature age recruits like Menegola, Stewart and Kelly, I'd be happy for the club to do it every year.

 

[catswhiskers]

Selecting 18 yo rookies or 40+ picks usually means you have to invest an extra year in development over a 1-40 pick. Its why they are not picked earlier - it doesn't mean they are without ability needed to play AFL.

Of the debutants in the last two years we have (in that category) I think, Simpson, Parsons, Narkle, Zuthrie, Ratugolea, Buzza, Miers, Cunico, Henry, JJ and while a year older O'Connor. Each of these has shown a bit, but its working out their ceiling that is difficult.

IMO .....

Which ones could fill key roles in coming years on exposed form? Ratugolea, Henry and Narkle (maybe). The first 2 if available this year would be first round picks)

Which ones could be regular selections but not key players - Cunico, Zuthrie, Parsons (this opinion won't be shared by many I know but I am sticking with him.

I am not sure about O'Connor, JJ and Miers and beginning to think Simpson is a bit slow and might not make it.

Of 11 roughies the return has been pretty good (and with another preseason should look even better next year) . 3 very good players, 3 role players and its a bit too early to know about 3 more.

At year's end I would clear deadwood. Get whatever earlier picks /trades sorted and go again with another 3 or 4 of this kind of kid

 

[Turbocat]

[in reply to my post about what is the measure of success]

So do I - enjoy the ride. Very much. But that's the metric used by so many m[winning a flag].

For me its AFL as a game first - I love it.

Cats come second.

I can enjoy a GF where for instance Sydney play WCE very much.......... Geelong didn't make it? OK maybe next year.

Thats where I envy CE and you and who ever else can just go along and enjoy the thrill of getting pumped ..or turning up to the finals and becoming a joke.. sitting in the outer and having to endure the rabid torment of salivating starving Tiger followers ...

The journey to me now is nothing but a train ride next to some insufferable bore ..and the quicker you get to the destination the better. The high marking and the envious skills that were once on display have been replaced by other attributes that appeal to me far less. Every now and then yes we get a glimpse.. those games this year where Hawkin's kicked a bag was enjoyable..

I wish it could be just about the ride but maybe that just me and the ride I have previously been on. Having to endure the gluttony of clubs like Hawthorn... I could well understand them enjoying their ride.. ..

 

[Max Milburn]

This thread is going to go round in circles forever until there is agreement on what a rebuild actually is. Can't see it that happening ATM...

 

[BUSTER29]

This thread is going to go round in circles forever until there is agreement on what a rebuild actually is. Can't see it that happening ATM...

You could say that about every thread in here.
Different people, different opinions.

 

[catempire]

Thats where I envy CE and you and who ever else can just go along and enjoy the thrill of getting pumped ..or turning up to the finals and becoming a joke.. sitting in the outer and having to endure the rabid torment of salivating starving Tiger followers ...

The journey to me now is nothing but a train ride next to some insufferable bore ..and the quicker you get to the destination the better. The high marking and the envious skills that were once on display have been replaced by other attributes that appeal to me far less. Every now and then yes we get a glimpse.. those games this year where Hawkin's kicked a bag was enjoyable..

I wish it could be just about the ride but maybe that just me and the ride I have previously been on. Having to endure the gluttony of clubs like Hawthorn... I could well understand them enjoying their ride.. ..

Verballing me here TC.

When I say I enjoy the journey that doesn’t mean I like losing or “being pumped”. What I’m saying is that I enjoy the full spectrum of experiences as an AFL fan - the preseason anticipation, the H&A ups and downs (although the season is too long IMO), watching exciting players emerge, and of course finals and premierships when we are lucky enough to be in that frame.

I’m also contrasting it with the position taken by others which could be summarised as “if we don’t win the flag it has all been a waste of time”. If I felt that way I’d have to find another hobby because wasting 17 out of 18 years on average is not what I would call a good use of my leisure time.

 

[Ray Donovan]

Even worst is that in our selected side this week we only have 6 of those debutants playing and 3 of them are mature age, realistic every other side this week would probably have just as many if not more debutants playing then us, seems we keep searching for the right kid but keep falling short so onto the next one which falsely inflates our numbers.

That's not a huge problem in my eyes we probably would have another 1-2 if everyone was available. I just have to watch us talk about our rebuild when it's just not happening. Our salary cap is maxed and we need cheap players who can contribute hence the mature age selections.

Plus ablett, Crameri Aaron black was playing earlier in the year.

All geelong has done this year is similar to what all sides are trying to do get in more talent. West coast had 8 debutants this year. We have done this for the last 5 years if we had salary to spend I'm sure we would fill out our list other ways we don't

 

[Turbocat]

Verballing me here TC.

When I say I enjoy the journey that doesn’t mean I like losing or “being pumped”. What I’m saying is that I enjoy the full spectrum of experiences as an AFL fan - the preseason anticipation, the H&A ups and downs (although the season is too long IMO), watching exciting players emerge, and of course finals and premierships when we are lucky enough to be in that frame.

I’m also contrasting it with the position taken by others which could be summarised as “if we don’t win the flag it has all been a waste of time”. If I felt that way I’d have to find another hobby because wasting 17 out of 18 years on average is not what I would call a good use of my leisure time.

I was probably in the moment excuse me if I have misdirected your intent...

There is something to what you say.. sometimes I wonder why the hell I don't find something else... but over the journey there have been things that I have enjoyed thru the year on an individual basis. Perhaps thats your perspective , you separate the long term result of the season out from the peaks and troughs. Generally , and I think I have been fairly transparent on this , I enjoy the kids and the development and progress of the drafted kids into players for us. So from that POV I have enjoyed this year more than I have the last few. I think we have been more honest. There is little or no rotten apple about us this year..in fact it would not surprise me if we did better than we have when we have finished near top the last couple of years.

But for me to say that nearly all encumbrances that one has had to endure because of our failure in finals is not a factor in my thinking would be insincere. In years where our finals was like it was the last few.. its the finals failure that is what is remembered more than any temp high thru the year.
The three flags that we have won , that I have seen us win with my family around me has not only franked us as a club.. to a degree it has given us the supporters some conviction. That we just don't win thru the year.. we can win and do win in the games that count..etc...

Anyway as usually you have managed to inspire me to miss direct the thread.... and if I continue I will be in all sort of strive with the mods...

 

[catswhiskers]

Thats where I envy CE and you and who ever else can just go along and enjoy the thrill of getting pumped ..or turning up to the finals and becoming a joke.. sitting in the outer and having to endure the rabid torment of salivating starving Tiger followers ...

The journey to me now is nothing but a train ride next to some insufferable bore ..and the quicker you get to the destination the better. The high marking and the envious skills that were once on display have been replaced by other attributes that appeal to me far less. Every now and then yes we get a glimpse.. those games this year where Hawkin's kicked a bag was enjoyable..

I wish it could be just about the ride but maybe that just me and the ride I have previously been on. Having to endure the gluttony of clubs like Hawthorn... I could well understand them enjoying their ride.. ..

Understand. But only to a degree.

The game has changed but I still marvel at what these athletes can do.

I don't like to see repeat flag winners unless its GFC also. But I did love the Bullies win and the Tiges last year.

I also know I have no control over the operation of my club so while I may have my preferences as to selection, game plan, etc etc except for the occasional response to club survey or the rare email, I have to leave it all to them. And I do - I don't harp about perceived failings of the club or the clubs staff on this board.

Anyway. I live in hope. I put $20 on the cats for the premiership (on Tuesday) . Might well be lost by Saturday evening but what the heck.

 

[Whit3y]

Of the debutants in the last two years we have (in that category) I think, Simpson, Parsons, Narkle, Zuthrie, Ratugolea, Buzza, Miers, Cunico, Henry, JJ and while a year older O'Connor. Each of these has shown a bit, but its working out their ceiling that is difficult.

That's quite a few number of players there.

I wonder if we have the same number of debutants from 2015/2016

 

[Ray Donovan]

This thread is going to go round in circles forever until there is agreement on what a rebuild actually is. Can't see it that happening ATM...

Lol too true everyone has a different reference point for it. But seriously look at this weeks side. We have had injuries its forced debutants we broke down basically since 2016 onwards most teams very similar turnover. Sydney and West coast, Richmond, Doggies all had radical list turnovers. Doggies only one that has struggled but they got the chocolates that's all that counts.

If linc mcarthy, Cockatoo, Bews, Stanley were available they would be in haha you would have Kelly, Henry, Savrat in the mix. Narkle on the fringe we added some mature age recruits that have been superb in menegola, Stewart, Kelly that drafting right there is a statement. Mature guys who can play now. Abbott a 27 year old 2nd gamer is in!

Brought back ablett even bringing in crameri. All our moves have been to improve this season and we have bloodied some kids.

For mine rebuilding is when guys like Taylor, Menzel, S.Selwood get left out on must win games. Actually playing kids in big moments over established players which give you a better chance to win but the ceiling of potential has been tapped you know what your going to get. We are 9th it's not like we are inside the 4 we are literally just going all out and need some luck to even make it

I understand all these people showing the debutants we have had etc. But just look at the team lol that's not a rebuild team

 

[Cataholic]

Verballing me here TC.

When I say I enjoy the journey that doesn’t mean I like losing or “being pumped”. What I’m saying is that I enjoy the full spectrum of experiences as an AFL fan - the preseason anticipation, the H&A ups and downs (although the season is too long IMO), watching exciting players emerge, and of course finals and premierships when we are lucky enough to be in that frame.

I’m also contrasting it with the position taken by others which could be summarised as “if we don’t win the flag it has all been a waste of time”. If I felt that way I’d have to find another hobby because wasting 17 out of 18 years on average is not what I would call a good use of my leisure time.

Some of us still carry the scars from the GFC promising so much over so many years, and delivering so little, CE.

It's made those of us that have seen it become very cautious about lauding future prospects too quickly, and in light of the last 7 years, suspicious that we are again entering a sustained period of no reward.

 

[dazbroncos]

So does that mean that every other club is also in rebuild mode because they are debuting similar numbers as us.

Swans 18
George Hewett
Callum Mills
Tom Papley
Aliir Aliir
Jack Hiscox
Harrison Marsh
Jordan Foote
Oliver Florent
Nic Newman
Will Hayward
Robbie Fox
Jordan Dawson
Lewis Melican
Ben Ronke
Tom McCartin
Ryley Stoddart
Colin O'Riordan
Darcy Cameron

Cats 16
Tom Ruggles
Sam Menegola
Tom Stewart
Brandan Parfitt
James Parsons
Mark O'Connor
Jordan Cunico
Wylie Buzza
Sam Simpson
Zach Guthrie
Lachie Fogarty
Tim Kelly
Esava Ratugolea
Jack Henry
Jamaine Jones
Quinton Narkle

Tigers 14
Daniel Rioli
Jayden Short
Jason Castagna
Nathan Broad
Oleg Markov
Adam Marcon
Callum Moore
Dan Butler
Ivan Soldo
Shai Bolton
Tyson Stengle
Jack Graham
Jack Higgins
Ryan Garthwaite
Liam Baker

Hawks 14
Marc Pittonet
Kieran Lovell
Kaiden Brand
Kade Stewart
Blake Hardwick
Kurt Heatherley
Ryan Burton
Teia Miles
James Cousins
Dallas Willsmore
Conor Glass
Harry Morrison
David Mirra
James Worpel
Mitchell Lewis

Pies 14
Matthew Goodyear
Mason Cox
Josh Smith
Ben Crocker
Tom Phillips
Rupert Wills
Callum Brown
Josh Daicos
Kayle Kirby
Jaidyn Stephenson
Sam Murray
Flynn Appleby
Brody Mihocek
Brayden Sier

GWS 13
Jacob Hopper
Matthew Kennedy
Harrison Himmelberg
Tim Taranto
Daniel Lloyd
Harry Perryman
Jeremy Finlayson
Will Setterfield
Zac Langdon
Nick Shipley
Isaac Cumming
Sam Taylor
Brent Daniels

Eagles 12
Tom Cole
Malcolm Karpany
Kurt Mutimer
Luke Partington
Liam Ryan
Jake Waterman
Daniel Venables
Willie Rioli
Jack Petruccelle
Brayden Ainsworth
Jarrod Brander
Oscar Allen

Dees 12
Clayton Oliver
Josh Wagner
Jayden Hunt
Christian Petracca
Sam Weideman
Mitch Hannan
Joel Smith
Tim Smith
Corey Maynard
Bayley Fritsch
Charlie Spargo
Harrison Petty

Port 12
Dougal Howard
Darcy Byrne-Jones
Logan Austin
Jesse Palmer
Riley Bonner
Will Snelling
Sam Powell-Pepper
Dan Houston
Brett Eddy
Aidyn Johnson
Joe Atley
Todd Marshall
Jarrod Lienert
Kane Farrell

yes

GO Catters

 

[catswhiskers]

That's quite a few number of players there.

I wonder if we have the same number of debutants from 2015/2016

Not sure but that list doesn't count mature agers either - Stewart and Abbott of the top of my head.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Given the fallout from the game against the Hawks, I thought I'd perhaps try to put into perspective where our list sits.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/debutants.1201826/

Since 2017, Geelong have had 15 AFL debutants. This is equal 2nd with Fremantle, and only bested by North with 16.

Our debutants have averaged 10.9 games, equal 3rd and only bested by the Doggies (12.6) and Carlton (13).

Looking at these lists, it is clear IMO, that we are in a phase of rebuild or "list replenishment" if you prefer.

Not only that, but given these stats, the inconsistency displayed on a regular basis may be somewhat explained by our lack of experience as a club.

If you take into account that the club has also played the most top 8 sides this season, I would argue that playing finals would be a success.

Now, is Chris Scott the right man for the job at present? Jury is out, and I would suggest that some of us are still frustrated that we could or should have won another flag with the list he inherited. The low level of skill seen at many stages of the season (we must be the worst Geelong kicking side I've seen in 20 years) is an issue, and this is not only the Coaching department, but perhaps list management too.

I question whether the harsh criticism Geelong has received this year is entirely justified. And whilst I agree with ex-cats Bartel and Billy that our experienced midfield looks lazy, I think the club has done a good job in ensuring our top level talent is elite which has ensured while our list turns over into a new generation, we don't find ourselves in the bottom 6, but challenging for finals again.

I do have reservations regarding Chris Scott, and a lot of the criticism directed towards him is indeed reasonable. But we are in a different era now, and whilst in the past he may not have produced a side capable of challenging successfully for flags when our list was reasonable enough, it is not all doom and gloom.

I just think we should be judging this season on our current situation, and take everything into account before jumping to conclusions after a rough year.

Do you agree? Don't agree?

My thoughts are that you're in a "rebuild" if your side is cooked and you need an excuse. That is clearly not geelong. The high turnover in bottom end talent is a symptom of having been of the most consistent performing clubs over the period. Saying that drafting mature agers is not beneficial in the long run also rings hollow when Stewart is in AA form, Menegola just hit #26 in the player ratings, and WCE are about to start a bidding war over Kelly. The oldest of them is 26. To not select the best players available for the season ahead is kinda like tanking.

Everyone panicking that we're going to be cooked in 5 years needs to consider 2 things.
First, that 5 years is an unbelievably long time frame in footy and that most of the good players today would be done by then regardless.
Second, the second tier players at the cats are not going to eat huge cap space. This is important to attract free agents and trade targets.
Third, that having a stable coaching system is a huge asset to attract players.
So if you want a prediction on where the cats will be in 5 years, i predict we'll have a group of young role players who have played alongside and learned from some of the best players of the last few decades, that we'll have a stable and credible coaching group, and that we'll have picked up a young gun or two early in the draft. Consider that and i think we'll be perfectly placed to land some of the best trade targets and free agents available and go around again. Or not. Like i said making predictions on where clubs will be in 5 years is ridiculous when everyone predicted Buckley and Hardwick to be unemployed by mid last year.