Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?


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Kreuuuzeurns

Norm Smith Medallist
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Blues setting up nicely for 2021.

Lions exposed again during the finals, not sure they go any further and may have peaked
Adding Daniher and 2 first rounders. Cockatoo could be astute as well. Won’t lose much from the core of the best 22. They’ll be there-abouts again.

In any case, peaking as a prelim side is better than never even getting there. But I reckon that’s wrong.
 

Rich01

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Carlton supporters mostly hated it, but it was the right move. SOS has largely dined out on his 2015 draft haul, which to be fair he smashed out of the park, but that can sometimes be the nature of taking a number of top prospects at once. We also got lucky with Geelong and Brisbane being happy to trade reasonably high picks for Henderson and Bell (we then converted one of these picks and another early second into the pick that ended up being Curnow).

He's got 3 reasonably good footballers in SPS, Fisher and Williamson in 2016, he then torched two 1st round picks in 2017, got an absolute gimme in Walsh the next year and then traded down pretty well to get Kemp (and Philp) in 2019.

Overall I think he broke even as a List Manager, but a big part of that was the huge headstart he had with his first draft and being gifted two Pick 1's, which are hard to blow. He has never really had to maintain a list over a long period of time, but from all available evidence he's a bit all over the place with contracts; McGovern's monster contract, Curnow's 800k contract and our 1 million dollar offer to Shiel come to mind. Plus having 2 sons on the list was always going to be difficult to manage going forward. Plus he recruited so many duds with our rookie picks that could have been used on project type players or guys from the State Leagues who deserved a crack. It wasn't until 2018 we actually went the other way and brought in Gibbons and Cottrell who are and projected to be best 22 players for the club.

At the absolute least Liddle is keeping the club accountable at each juncture. SOS' sacking was one obvious example - apparently he has questioned the club about keeping Betts on for next year as well. Keeping in mind it's not especially clear what the correct move is, that is exactly the kind of oversight the club has needed for a long period of time.
Good post.

It’s taken a while for the rusted ons to dissect the messiahs performance and evaluate it for what it is.

I don’t think it’s fair to evaluate Carlton against Brisbane. Brisbane so far ahead.

But I think the blues list has talent and compared to peers such as Fremantle, stack up well.

Their big challenge is keeping the core together, Cripps and McKay HAVE to sign. Curnow needs to recover from his injury. And they probably need one more key tall defender, a small forward and another quality mid to contend. But that’s all gettable.

They have to play finals next year, and if they get into contention in a few years, must convert a flag or two for all the long term pain of the long rebuild.
 

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ohhhBigMalcho

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Blues need to make the 8 next year, they will add some speed this off season, perhaps just get a few more solid citizens around the edges, upgrade their worst 5 players each week and yeah they will be on the periphery again next year.
 

La Dispute

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Good post.

It’s taken a while for the rusted ons to dissect the messiahs performance and evaluate it for what it is.

I don’t think it’s fair to evaluate Carlton against Brisbane. Brisbane so far ahead.

But I think the blues list has talent and compared to peers such as Fremantle, stack up well.

Their big challenge is keeping the core together, Cripps and McKay HAVE to sign. Curnow needs to recover from his injury. And they probably need one more key tall defender, a small forward and another quality mid to contend. But that’s all gettable.

They have to play finals next year, and if they get into contention in a few years, must convert a flag or two for all the long term pain of the long rebuild.
For pure talent we’d have one of the better lists in the league, but it’ll come down to team balance, gameplan and managing any injuries. It’s no surprise Brisbane has recently had a good run with injury, and from all reports one of the best medical teams in the league.

Our form will ebb and flow like any team. The main thing is carefully positioning the list and keeping the most important pieces (Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, Curnow and McKay) at the club.
 

Rich01

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For pure talent we’d have one of the better lists in the league, but it’ll come down to team balance, gameplan and managing any injuries. It’s no surprise Brisbane has recently had a good run with injury, and from all reports one of the best medical teams in the league.

Our form will ebb and flow like any team. The main thing is carefully positioning the list and keeping the most important pieces (Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, Curnow and McKay) at the club.
All sides get injuries.
But it seems to win a flag, you need your best side at the right time.

Quality of the list and depth carries good teams thru the home and away rounds to cover injuries.

Carlton fans would be hoping high draft picks Stocker, LOB, Dow, SPS, Cuningham, Kennedy, Setterfield, Kemp and Philp all come on and enhance the current best 22.

The reality is they need to find 2-3 players that are best dozen in their side in the next two years from this group if they want to progress to contention. And another 2-3 to be genuine 18-22 ranked players in a top side.
 

JasRulz63

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Blues setting up nicely for 2021.

Lions exposed again during the finals, not sure they go any further and may have peaked
Round 18 - Brisbane 78 def Carlton 61
Average age - Brisbane 26yr 1mth, Carlton 26yr 2mth
Average games - Brisbane 109.6, Carlton 112.4

Nine players 23 and under that were in the 22 that ran out in a preliminary final.

But yeah, I guess it's time for another re-build for both sides I guess. Shame Carlton's peak was 11th.
 
Last edited:

Malifice

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Carlton is back up to 6th oldest, where they were from 2014-16.
With the retirement of Simpson and Kruezer, we've actually gotten younger next year (even considering an extra year on our kids next year). Simpsons 37 years pushed up our average list age this year (as did Betts and Murphy who arent exactly key members of the side).

Betts and Murphy retire next year as well so that pushes it down again.

Im not too concerned about our age. The majority of our key players are 20-26 years old next year (Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, McKay, Curnow, Martin, Setterfield, DeKoenig, SPS, Marchbank etc). Docherty just turned 27 this year. Our 30+ veterans next year are Jones, Casboult, E Curnow, Betts and Murphy so no huge names there that are irreplaceable. We also have Kemp, Phillip, Stocker and Dow in the reserves.

Our age profile next year looks a lot better next year with the addition of Williams and hopefully Saad, and another year into the kids (who are hitting that 3-5 year mark when they really start to show something).

Barring injuries, Im happy to predict we should make the 8 next year. Anything less would be a massive failure.
 

OniAu

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With the retirement of Simpson and Kruezer, we've actually gotten younger next year (even considering an extra year on our kids next year). Simpsons 37 years pushed up our average list age this year (as did Betts and Murphy who arent exactly key members of the side).

Betts and Murphy retire next year as well so that pushes it down again.

Im not too concerned about our age. The majority of our key players are 20-26 years old next year (Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, McKay, Curnow, Martin, Setterfield, DeKoenig, SPS, Marchbank etc). Docherty just turned 27 this year. Our 30+ veterans next year are Jones, Casboult, E Curnow, Betts and Murphy so no huge names there that are irreplaceable. We also have Kemp, Phillip, Stocker and Dow in the reserves.

Our age profile next year looks a lot better next year with the addition of Williams and hopefully Saad, and another year into the kids (who are hitting that 3-5 year mark when they really start to show something).

Barring injuries, Im happy to predict we should make the 8 next year. Anything less would be a massive failure.
Just be like Melbourne . Spruke about being the youngest list and be putrid for many years. Apparently thats more acceptable on BF!

As you said . Your older players arent key components to the side. Murphy will be gone end of next year, he should realistically be pushed out by years end. Betts similar to Murphy, Betts best is much more rewarding than Murphys however. Ed Curnow would maybe have a couple of years left id imagine ? Feel like his leadership on the ground is huge for the kids.

Both Carlton and Lions lists are looking like building nicely. Bit more midfield help for Cripps and that changes the midfield dynamic hugely. Another HBF in saad to help Docherty bring it out of defense, releases the pressure on Docherty. Lions have gone and got that Hulking KPF , which now puts Hipwood on the second best defender, Thats massive.

Im getting envious of both lists. They are at where i hoped pies would be !
 

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Malifice

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Round 18 - Brisbane 78 def Carlton 61
Average age - Brisbane 26yr 1mth, Carlton 26yr 2mth
Average games - Brisbane 109.6, Carlton 112.4
You don't think Simpsons 36 and a half years / 342 games inflated those numbers a bit?

What about Betts (who also played) and his 331 games/ 33 and a half years?

Or Murphy (who also played) and his 33 years and 285 games played?

Those three blokes are held together with sticky tape at this point. The reality is we had a handful of really senior players aged 30+ (Simmo, Murph, Betts, Casboult and Jones) a relative lack of quality players in the 23-29 age bracket (Cripps, Docherty, Martin), and then a lot of players in the 19-22 age bracket.

We had 9 players in that game with 50 games or less experience, to Brisbanes 5 players with 50 games or less.

Our average list age (and experience) is dragged up by a handful of very old players. We're actually still fielding a relatively young and inexperienced side most weeks.
 

catscollector

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Carlton is better setup for a shot at a premiership than Brisbane despite ladder positions in recent years.
Blues have all the pieces now in place. It's only a matter of progression in 2021. De Koning is critical to their rise up the ladder. He becomes a solid ruckman and they will be playing finals no doubt.
 

scoman

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Carlton is better setup for a shot at a premiership than Brisbane despite ladder positions in recent years.
Blues have all the pieces now in place. It's only a matter of progression in 2021. De Koning is critical to their rise up the ladder. He becomes a solid ruckman and they will be playing finals no doubt.
And here I was thinking finishing top four and playing finals, despite being realitively young was a good thing. Apparently it means we have peaked too early and it's all downhill from here as guys like Clugga, Berry, Rayner, Hipwood, Andrews, Starce, Bailey, Answerth, Witherden, AhChee, McStay, McInerney, etc move into their prime years.
 

JasRulz63

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You don't think Simpsons 36 and a half years / 342 games inflated those numbers a bit?

What about Betts (who also played) and his 331 games/ 33 and a half years?

Or Murphy (who also played) and his 33 years and 285 games played?

Those three blokes are held together with sticky tape at this point. The reality is we had a handful of really senior players aged 30+ (Simmo, Murph, Betts, Casboult and Jones) a relative lack of quality players in the 23-29 age bracket (Cripps, Docherty, Martin), and then a lot of players in the 19-22 age bracket.

We had 9 players in that game with 50 games or less experience, to Brisbanes 5 players with 50 games or less.

Our average list age (and experience) is dragged up by a handful of very old players. We're actually still fielding a relatively young and inexperienced side most weeks.
All reasonable points. We have a couple of older guys that are boosting our average up too (Martin ~34yo, Birchall ~32), but not in the same way as Carlton.

I feel as though there's a lot of similarities in the way both sides have built their list.

We had a similar issue a few years ago where we had a gap in the age profile of our list due to poor drafting and losing players, which we recognised and targeted.

If you look at the players we have in the 26-29 age bracket that are on our list, it's dominated by recruited players:
Traded/FA from other clubs - Lyons, Ellis-Yolmen, Neale, Adams, McCarthy, Daniher, Cameron
Drafted by Brisbane - Lester, McInerney

It looks like Carlton are look at taking a similar approach bringing in Saad and Williams to fill that void, alongside Martin and McGovern who were brought in slightly younger.

Again looking at that round 18 game, like you said, Carlton had 9 less than 50 games compared to Brisbane's 5. But if you look at the next bracket, Brisbane had 6 from 50-99 games compared to Carlton's 3, meaning that the total under 100 games was Brisbane 11 and Carlton 12. From an age point of view, Carlton have nine players aged between 19-23 in that game compared to Brisbane's eight. Obviously I understand there were injuries involved to both sides.

I guess my overall point is that unlike what the poster I responded to would like to state, I don't think the lists are that far apart demographic wise that they reflect Brisbane on the decline while Carlton are still on the rise. I would think it would reflect Carlton on the rise, and Brisbane with the potential growth to improve further.

Players who played in the PF such as Berry, McCluggage, Starcevich, Bailey, Payne and Rayner still have room to improve, along with the improvement in our young players that might come into the side (Coleman, Answerth, Robertson, Fullarton etc.). Not to mention players like Andrews and Hipwood are about to turn 24 and just turned 23, respectively.
 

Malifice

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All reasonable points. We have a couple of older guys that are boosting our average up too (Martin ~34yo, Birchall ~32), but not in the same way as Carlton.

I feel as though there's a lot of similarities in the way both sides have built their list.
Main point of difference is you guys have been able to entice Neale and Cameron, and both have been central to your rise (for mine). They're (obviously) guns.

Martin and McGovern are not in the same category. All respect to Martin who had a good year this year.

I'd be happy to say if you had the former two and we had your two named there, our ladder positions would be a hell of a lot closer this year.

Again looking at that round 18 game, like you said, Carlton had 9 less than 50 games compared to Brisbane's 5. But if you look at the next bracket, Brisbane had 6 from 50-99 games compared to Carlton's 3, meaning that the total under 100 games was Brisbane 11 and Carlton 12. From an age point of view, Carlton have nine players aged between 19-23 in that game compared to Brisbane's eight. Obviously I understand there were injuries involved to both sides.
Which kind of drives home my point though. We had a whopping 9 players with less than 50 games, and you had more players in that magic 50-99 game range, giving you guys a better overall age demographic than us.

We have a small number of very old players (Betts, Simpson, Murphy, Casboult) pushing our average age and games played up.

Why I am bullish on our prospects is the leading 6 players of Brisbanes team (by SC score) that game were (age in brackets):

Rich (30)
Neale (27)
Rayner (21)
Starsevich (21)
Zorko (31)
Robinson (31)

Three 30+ year olds, and 1 x 27 year old. Your senior players led your side to victory.

While ours were:

Walsh (20)
Cuningham (23)
Kennedy (23)
SPS (22)
Pittonet (24)
Williamson (21)

Not one player over the age of 24, and with Murphy, Cripps, Betts, Casboult etc not doing much at all.

Leading goal scorer for the match (both teams) was 22 year old McKay with 3, and leading possession getter for the match (both teams) was 20 year old Walsh with 31.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_match_statistics?mid=10313&sby=14#t1

The above tends to show that we dont rely on our senior players that much, and certainly not as much as the Lions do.

Losing Betts and Murphy next year wont affect us at all. Simpson was a good player, but Saad should basically cover what he was able to provide, and Williams should provide some speed through the guts that we desperately need.
 

catscollector

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And here I was thinking finishing top four and playing finals, despite being realitively young was a good thing. Apparently it means we have peaked too early and it's all downhill from here as guys like Clugga, Berry, Rayner, Hipwood, Andrews, Starce, Bailey, Answerth, Witherden, AhChee, McStay, McInerney, etc move into their prime years.
I just don't rate your rucks or key forwards unfortunately.
Daniher is a gun but he's one injury away from retiring early.

Tremendous midfield and solid backline though.

Carlton with the inclusion of Williams is a significant upgrade over Simpson. Williams is also a terrific inside midfielder.
If they sign Saad, they are better poised to make it to a grand final before Brisbane do.
 

Malifice

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I just don't rate your rucks or key forwards unfortunately.
Daniher is a gun but he's one injury away from retiring early.

Tremendous midfield and solid backline though.

Carlton with the inclusion of Williams is a significant upgrade over Simpson. Williams is also a terrific inside midfielder.
If they sign Saad, they are better poised to make it to a grand final before Brisbane do.
Still need 1 more gun mid, and a quality small forward for mine.

I'm happy with our rucks (Pittonet and TDK), I'm happy with our forwards (Curnow, McKay), Im happy with our backline (Weitering, Docherty, Plowman, Saad, Williamson, Marchbank, Jones). Our midfield could use a balanced gun mid (Neale or Merrett type) to work in tandem with Cripps, Williams, Setters and Walsh and we could use a gun small forward or two.
 

scoman

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I just don't rate your rucks or key forwards unfortunately.
Daniher is a gun but he's one injury away from retiring early.

Tremendous midfield and solid backline though.

Carlton with the inclusion of Williams is a significant upgrade over Simpson. Williams is also a terrific inside midfielder.
If they sign Saad, they are better poised to make it to a grand final before Brisbane do.
Well they might need to get cracking considering Brisbane will be well and truly in the mix next year for the premiership.
 

AuTo00Z

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I'd be surprised if Brisbane didn't make the top 4 next year. Whether they have the best 22 in the comp is up for debate, but I would say that if you look at just how much depth they have on their list, they may very well have the best list in the AFL (Richmond has traded out a lot if it's depth, and other teams depth doesn't seem as strong).

As for Carlton, they seem to have most of the key pieces in place, but some still need more experience, and probably a few players off being a really good team. I think they will challenge for the 8, probably 50/50 chance to actually make the 8.
 

scoman

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They won’t get 14/18 games at Gabba next year. Can their improvement balance against this loss or out weigh it.
Brisbane played 11/18 games at the Gabba this year and 11/22 in 2019. 2nd on the ladder at the end of H&A both times. This won't be able to do it post covid stuff is bunk.
 

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