Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[BoundbyKreuze]

Brisbane played 11/18 games at the Gabba this year and 11/22 in 2019. 2nd on the ladder at the end of H&A both times. This won't be able to do it post covid stuff is bunk.

But didn’t really hub right?? Played most if their other games down the road. It wasn’t so much of an advantage over the previous years but it still was lack of a negative that everyone else received and they avoided. They should of atleast had to hub in WA and or SA. But no they decided to send hawks geelong Carlton and Collingwood despite them already hubbing in QLD. Why not Bris??

 

[snooplions]

But didn’t really hub right?? Played most if their other games down the road. It wasn’t so much of an advantage over the previous years but it still was lack of a negative that everyone else received and they avoided. They should of atleast had to hub in WA and or SA. But no they decided to send hawks geelong Carlton and Collingwood despite them already hubbing in QLD. Why not Bris??

Brisbane staying in Brisbane saved money and earned money.

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Brisbane staying in Brisbane saved money and earned money.

Yeah I understand the reasons behind it but it doesn’t change the advantages of it vs the negatives that everyone else had to undergo.

 

[JasRulz63]

Main point of difference is you guys have been able to entice Neale and Cameron, and both have been central to your rise (for mine). They're (obviously) guns.

Martin and McGovern are not in the same category. All respect to Martin who had a good year this year.

I'd be happy to say if you had the former two and we had your two named there, our ladder positions would be a hell of a lot closer this year.

(snip)

Why I am bullish on our prospects is the leading 6 players of Brisbanes team (by SC score) that game were (age in brackets):

Rich (30)
Neale (27)
Rayner (21)
Starsevich (21)
Zorko (31)
Robinson (31)

Three 30+ year olds, and 1 x 27 year old. Your senior players led your side to victory.

While ours were:

Walsh (20)
Cuningham (23)
Kennedy (23)
SPS (22)
Pittonet (24)
Williamson (21)

Not one player over the age of 24, and with Murphy, Cripps, Betts, Casboult etc not doing much at all.

Leading goal scorer for the match (both teams) was 22 year old McKay with 3, and leading possession getter for the match (both teams) was 20 year old Walsh with 31.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_match_statistics?mid=10313&sby=14#t1

The above tends to show that we dont rely on our senior players that much, and certainly not as much as the Lions do.

Losing Betts and Murphy next year wont affect us at all. Simpson was a good player, but Saad should basically cover what he was able to provide, and Williams should provide some speed through the guts that we desperately need.

I agree that a big part of why Brisbane are comfortably ahead of Carlton at this stage is that we have better senior players that we rely more on than Carlton (Neale, Cameron, Rich etc.).

I like the acquisitions of Saad and particularly Williams, and I think they should provide more than whoever they're pushing out of the side. The question now with Carlton is whether those acquisitions are enough to bridge that gap (from 11th to competing for a flag), and if not, are Carlton able to bring in the experienced quality to help do so. I think Merrett would be a fantastic free agent target for next year (especially if didn't cost draft capital), and would compliment the group Carlton are building.

McKay was fantastic in that game, his contested marking was a highlight and our defenders struggled when he was allowed to jump at it (Andrews didn't play). I do think a fit C. Curnow will be vital, because I think Carlton are still reliant on their more experienced players to kick goals (McKay and fit Curnow aside).

Which kind of drives home my point though. We had a whopping 9 players with less than 50 games, and you had more players in that magic 50-99 game range, giving you guys a better overall age demographic than us.

We have a small number of very old players (Betts, Simpson, Murphy, Casboult) pushing our average age and games played up.

You're equating games played with age, which isn't always the case with our side because we put a lot of games into our young players early in their careers. In fact I don't think we have a player on our list currently that's 22 or over that hasn't played 50+ games who's a good shot at being in our best 22 long term.

Players like Hipwood (23), Ah Chee (23), Berry (22), McCluggage (22) and Rayner (21) have all played 50-99 games despite being a similar age to their Carlton counterparts who haven't played as many games. (Pittonet (24), Kennedy (23), Cunningham (23), Polson (22), McKay (22)). There were five 21 and under players in that Brisbane 22 as well.

I agree that the Brisbane age demographic is better placed to compete with our better players being in their prime. I still think that downplays how young our team is, and how much potential improvement there is to come.

 

[scoman]

But didn’t really hub right?? Played most if their other games down the road. It wasn’t so much of an advantage over the previous years but it still was lack of a negative that everyone else received and they avoided. They should of atleast had to hub in WA and or SA. But no they decided to send hawks geelong Carlton and Collingwood despite them already hubbing in QLD. Why not Bris??

Because they didn't. They did however hub in Sydney for a few weeks. Also games at Metricon are not home games for Brisbane. Would you consider games at Geelong to be home games for Carlton? Regardless I'm not sure how any of this means Brisbane is set for a decline. As of right now Brisbane is ahead of Carlton by a fair stretch. I base this on (at the risk of sounding flippant) the bleeding obvious really. Maybe things change next year, it's certainly possible. Nothing is guaranteed. But that applies just as much to Carlton improving as it does to Brisbane declining.

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Because they didn't. They did however hub in Sydney for a few weeks. Also games at Metricon are not home games for Brisbane. Would you consider games at Geelong to be home games for Carlton? Regardless I'm not sure how any of this means Brisbane is set for a decline. As of right now Brisbane is ahead of Carlton by a fair stretch. I base this on (at the risk of sounding flippant) the bleeding obvious really. Maybe things change next year, it's certainly possible. Nothing is guaranteed. But that applies just as much to Carlton improving as it does to Brisbane declining.

Please tell me you didn’t just compare kardinia Park (the toughest ground statistslly for an away team in the entire AFL) to bloody Metricon stadium.

 

[Broar]

Main point of difference is you guys have been able to entice Neale and Cameron, and both have been central to your rise (for mine). They're (obviously) guns.

Martin and McGovern are not in the same category. All respect to Martin who had a good year this year.

I'd be happy to say if you had the former two and we had your two named there, our ladder positions would be a hell of a lot closer this year.



Which kind of drives home my point though. We had a whopping 9 players with less than 50 games, and you had more players in that magic 50-99 game range, giving you guys a better overall age demographic than us.

We have a small number of very old players (Betts, Simpson, Murphy, Casboult) pushing our average age and games played up.

Why I am bullish on our prospects is the leading 6 players of Brisbanes team (by SC score) that game were (age in brackets):

Rich (30)
Neale (27)
Rayner (21)
Starsevich (21)
Zorko (31)
Robinson (31)

Three 30+ year olds, and 1 x 27 year old. Your senior players led your side to victory.

While ours were:

Walsh (20)
Cuningham (23)
Kennedy (23)
SPS (22)
Pittonet (24)
Williamson (21)

Not one player over the age of 24, and with Murphy, Cripps, Betts, Casboult etc not doing much at all.

Leading goal scorer for the match (both teams) was 22 year old McKay with 3, and leading possession getter for the match (both teams) was 20 year old Walsh with 31.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_match_statistics?mid=10313&sby=14#t1

The above tends to show that we dont rely on our senior players that much, and certainly not as much as the Lions do.

Losing Betts and Murphy next year wont affect us at all. Simpson was a good player, but Saad should basically cover what he was able to provide, and Williams should provide some speed through the guts that we desperately need.

Yikes, I wouldn't be using supercoach stats to prove that. SC can be an incredibly flawed system that tends to overrate certain positions/acts. Not to mention scaling.

In addition cherrypicking some stats from one game to deduce your point is crazytown stuff.

I mean I could sit here and say from that exact same game going off sc points that Lester is clearly twice the player compared to Cripps or that Coleman is on a bargain contract compared to JMartin. What on earth are Carlton thinking!

 

[JasRulz63]

Please tell me you didn’t just compare kardinia Park (the toughest ground statistslly for an away team in the entire AFL) to bloody Metricon stadium.

Except the comparison isn't Carlton playing Geelong there, it's if Carlton played an interstate side there (for example). But the interstate side had played plenty of games there that season too.

 

[scoman]

Please tell me you didn’t just compare kardinia Park (the toughest ground statistslly for an away team in the entire AFL) to bloody Metricon stadium.

I think you are missing the point.

 

[JasRulz63]

Yeah I understand the reasons behind it but it doesn’t change the advantages of it vs the negatives that everyone else had to undergo.

Can't be too much if a disadvantage when the winners of the AFL, NRL and Super Netball all won out of hubs.

I'm actually curious to see how Brisbane would've done inside the hubs. The Brisbane (and Gold Coast) players still had to essentially abide by the same rules as the other players, except with the benefit of being inside their own homes. Given that most players at the Queensland clubs aren't from their home states they're predominately away from the majority of their families and friends anyway, and they become quite a tight-knit group because the people at the club are essentially their entire local support network.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Brisbane played 11/18 games at the Gabba this year and 11/22 in 2019. 2nd on the ladder at the end of H&A both times. This won't be able to do it post covid stuff is bunk.

issue is probably more the finals not being all at home

 

[scoman]

issue is probably more the finals not being all at home

If you finish second on the ladder you get two finals at home. It's been like that for quite some time.

 

[JasRulz63]

issue is probably more the finals not being all at home

The two finals that Brisbane played at the GABBA would've been played there anyway based on the normal rules.

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

If you finish second on the ladder you get two finals at home. It's been like that for quite some time.

I think he may be talking about teams other than Brisbane being forced to play Gabba and Metricon.

 

[Ron The Bear]

With the retirement of Simpson and Kruezer, we've actually gotten younger next year (even considering an extra year on our kids next year). Simpsons 37 years pushed up our average list age this year (as did Betts and Murphy who arent exactly key members of the side).
...

It's precisely the results when Carlton does field a young side that give cause for concern.

Year	Round	Age diff	Opp	Result
2018	1	-0.41	Rich	L
2018	3	-0.22	Coll	L
2018	4	-1.44	N.M.	L
2018	5	-0.96	W.C.	L
2018	7	-0.63	Adel	L
2018	8	-0.94	Ess	W
2018	10	-1.15	Geel	L
2018	11	-1.49	Syd	L
2018	14	-0.54	Coll	L
2018	15	-1.43	P.A.	L
2018	16	-0.33	Bris	L
2018	17	-0.38	St.K	L
2018	18	-1.86	Haw	L
2018	20	-0.31	GWS	L
2018	23	-1.33	Adel	L
2019	1	-1.17	Rich	L
2019	2	-0.34	P.A.	L
2019	3	-0.09	Syd	L
2019	6	-1.20	Haw	L
2019	7	-2.49	N.M.	L
2019	8	-2.41	Coll	L
2019	9	-2.10	GWS	L
2019	10	-0.04	St.K	L
2019	11	-1.87	Ess	L
2019	12	-0.73	Bris	W
2019	19	-1.23	Adel	W
2019	20	-1.88	W.C.	L
2019	22	-0.02	St.K	W
2019	23	-2.10	Geel	L
2020	1	-0.34	Rich	L
2020	3	-1.83	Geel	W
2020	9	-1.19	Haw	L
2020	11	-0.47	W.C.	L
2020	15	-0.22	GWS	L

(Admittedly the Geelong win this year was a very good one and benefited Richmond no end.)

There is some truth to the theory of "natural progression" but it certainly can't be assumed. Getting the young blokes to make the leap to being winners is no small hurdle.

 

[Sherrinator]

This thread belongs on the Carlton board.

 

[blueiris]

Next year Carlton should be pushing for finals
Brisbane Lions should be pushing for the flag

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Next year Carlton should be pushing for finals
Brisbane Lions should be pushing for the flag

Fair assessment.
It was a valid comparison back in 2017. Both clubs were at a similar stage.
In 2018 before the Lions made their ladder jump, they had very few injuries and played a young core group together while remaining reasonably competitive. They had 18 players play 18 games or more (7 played 22 and 4 played 21). That group had a chance to play together and gel.
Blues were destroyed by injuries and struggled to field a preferred side and got hammered as a result. 10 players who played 18+ games (2 played 22 and 3 played 21). Two of those 10 for Carlton were Lamb and Wright.
The result of 2018 for the Lions was the ability to attract players like Neale and Lyons.
In 2019, they were able to field another consistent side, with 19 players playing 18+ games (10 played 24 and 4 played 23). This absolutely cannot be overstated how valuable that was to their development. They are probably now about 2 years ahead as a result of those two years of a consistent best 22.
In 2019 for the Blues, it was a little better, but still not to the same extent of any of those two previous years for the Lions. 16 players who played 18+ games (3 players with 22 and 3 with 21 games).
One of those was Levi (20 games), who wouldn't have played as many games if a few players hadn't missed significant games, and due to Levi's flexibility.
Marchbank (13 games), Kreuzer (15), Curnow (11), Jones (13), McGovern (16). He basically had to plug those holes.
Our last couple of years of being more competitive despite the losses, has now allowed us to attract some similar type players in Martin, Saad and Williams.
The loss of Docherty over those two years also a significant factor.

A prefect storm for Brisbane to make their considerable leap and some bad luck for Carlton in terms of injuries, which has probably had a negative impact on development and also made it look like development has stalled to some degree.

There's just no real comparison there now, although a good run with injuries in 2021 could see Carlton make a similar style leap, albeit not from as low a position.

 

[branedotorg]

Next year Carlton should be pushing for finals
Brisbane Lions should be pushing for the flag

Hope Williams can be a catalyst in the same way Neale was (not suggesting he'll win a Brownlow) in adding a different ready made dimension to the midfield.

 

[Mr.X]

The two finals that Brisbane played at the GABBA would've been played there anyway based on the normal rules.

Which is the best kind of platform to make the GF.

 

[Genghis Tron]

'don't mention my own team.... Dont mention my own team...'

Love what the lions have done. Good to see them up and about. Reckon the Blues are really close to pushing for finals. Had them making the 8 late last year.

 

[Mr.X]

Blues need to make the 8 next year, they will add some speed this off season, perhaps just get a few more solid citizens around the edges, upgrade their worst 5 players each week and yeah they will be on the periphery again next year.

+1

Blues have had a decent off season and should push for finals in 2021 and take a spot of one of the sides that will drop out

 

[Rich01]

+1

Blues have had a decent off season and should push for finals in 2021 and take a spot of one of the sides that will drop out

It’s season six of the rebuild. Time for finals. It they have built the list properly it’s time for this group to take the next step.

Can’t wait to see what they can do in 2021.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Carton will be knocking on door of eight, but I just don’t believe they have enough goal kicking power to win enough games. Their leading goal kicker last year was McKay with 21.

Their forward line might look reasonable on paper, but other than McKay and with Curnow injured, who can Carlton genuinely rely on to kick goals to consistently win games next season?

Betts is their only proven goal kicker, but he’s well past his best and won’t be kicking loads of goals.

And their mids don’t kick many goals .... only 27 total in 2020 from Cripps, Curnow, Murphy, Walsh and Settlefield.

So I think defensively they can compete, but they just won’t be able to score enough.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Malifice]

Carton will be knocking on door of eight, but I just don’t believe they have enough goal kicking power to win enough games. Their leading goal kicker last year was McKay with 21.

Curnow being injured and McGovern not doing much hasn't helped.

Faster ball movement hopefully sees McKay/ McGovern one out a bit more.