Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[TheFVK]

With these two sides playing against each other next week, I thought I'd make a thread regarding the rebuild these two sides have undertaken as well as their future prospects.

Firstly I'll talk about Brisbane.

After 16 games, Brisbane have 3 wins, a percentage of 69.1, an average of 82 points scored per game and 119 conceded.

In Fagan's first year at the helm, the Lions have improved on their scoring per game from last year slightly when they averaged 80 points scored and also improved on their points conceded when they averaged 131 points conceded per game.

The Lions are also on the same amount of wins they got last year. With games against Carlton, WC, WB, GC, Melbourne and NM, I reckon Brisbane will win at least 2 more games possibly 3. This year has been an improvement on last year and a step in the right direction for the Lions and if they can get a couple more wins to end the season, they can then enter 2018 with a confidence that they can finish outside the bottom 4.

My hope for Brisbane in 2018 is to continue to tighten up defensively to ensure improved competitiveness in games, further improve their scoring, further exposure and improvement in its players under 23 years of age and to get close to 10 wins for the season in order to build on 2018 for a possible finals appearance in 2019.

Right now, I see the Lions finals window potentially opening in 2019 but more realistically 2020, which is the year I expect the Lions to make the finals with no excuses. The talented under 23 brigade the Lions have now headlined by players such as McStay, Cutler, Taylor, Andrews, Schache, Hipwood, Mathieson, Witherden, Berry and McCluggage. Beams, Rich, Zorko and Rockliff (should he stay) would also provide a solid experienced unit by the time their predicted finals window opens in the next 2-3 years. Brisbane's spine at both ends looks very promising especially with Andrews and McStay down back while Hipwood and Schache up front should prove to be a potent combination.

I'm pretty bullish on the Lions future, the Gabba might start to rock again and prove to be a bit of a cauldron for interstate teams. How far the Lions can go under Fagan will be determined in the next few years when they should become a finals outfit.

Now onto Carlton.

The Blues have 5 wins, a percentage of 82.3, an average of 73 points scored per game and 88 conceded.

This is now Bolton's second year and they have improved slightly on last years output in terms of scoring per game (71 points scored per game in 2016) and points conceded (90 points conceded per game in 2016).

Carlton have probably exceeded expectations in terms of the amount of wins they have already attained as well as their general competitiveness in most games. For the rest of the year, Carlton play Brisbane, Geelong, Essendon, WC, Hawthorn and Sydney. That is a tough fixture, but it should be a good learning experience for this developing team. They might only win 1 game for the rest of the year maybe 2 but the Blues are heading in the right direction under Bolton. The Blues will probably finish in the bottom 4 but they will learn a fair bit from this year and as they mature as a side, they should be able to win the games that hang in the balance but have let slip which has happened a few times this season.

My hope for Carlton in 2018 is to improve their scoring power, play with more risk as they start to build on their defensive foundations, further exposure and improvement to its players drafted from the last few years and like Brisbane, get close to winning 10 games and build on a positive 2018 season with a possible finals appearance in 2019.

I see Carlton's finals window as similar to Brisbane with a potential opening in 2019 but more realistically they should be a finals side in 2020. Carlton's under 23 brigade for me is headlined by Cripps, Pickett, Marchbank, J Silvagni, McKay, Weitering, C Curnow, Cuningham, Williamson, Fisher, Macreadie and SPS. Carlton's defence looks like it will be its strong point by the time this team reaches its peak with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Docherty, Macreadie and Williamson providing the Blues with a mix of intercept marking, key and hybrid defenders and rebounding power.

I feel like Carlton's defensive foundations are set, but I do have question marks in the future regarding their midfield stocks and scoring power up forward. It will be interesting to see who they recruit in the draft and trade period. Like Brisbane, Carlton have a good future ahead and should be finalists in a few years and how far they can go will be determined by the direction they go under Bolton in the next few seasons.

What I will say is that the question marks I have over Carlton's midfield stocks and scoring power in the future is the reason why I'm more confident over Brisbane's future prospects atm. My opinion could change though in the next couple of years, as a lot can happen in that timeframe. I look forward to seeing how the rebuild of these two teams evolves and how far each team can go under the current direction of Fagan and Bolton respectively.

TL;DR, feel free to discuss the rebuild of these two teams and your opinion of which team has the better future prospects atm

Didn't even read, but gave you a like for actually putting some effort into an OP

 

[Natho]

are the blues aiming to have a red hot crack while Gibbs, Murphy, Kruezer and Simpson are still around? all pushing 30 or above. can it all go right in the next 1/2 years.

 

[a mayes ing]

Both teams are fairly uninspiring, like all teams they have some good talent, I'd say Carlton are a fair bit behind, all 4 of Kreuzer/Murphy/Gibbs/Simpson are almost having career best years, and 2 of them are nearing retirement with Gibbs most likely heading back home at the end of the year, they'll also most likely lose Casboult setting them back even further.

Both Brisbane and Carlton play a gamestyle that cloggs up games, more so trying to limit damage and then counter punch when they can and drag other teams down to there level.

Brisbanes midfield group are in that 27-28-29 age bracket, couple years of good football left and then they'll be left with not much, gun spine with Andrews, McStay Schache and Hipwood, they'll need to find a replacement for Martin in the ruck as he's quality and is very underrated in the broader footballing community.

A few things:
Our gameplan is actually not to clog up the backline. We realise that our forwards are young so we try and get it to them quickly if possible. If we are unable then we try and switch, chip kick etc.
Our mids are actually 27 yeas old. Zorko is our oldest in 28 years so they still gave 5 years left or so. Even then we only really have 5/6 senior midfield core, all the others are young blokes who are getting some midfield minutes already.
We also have a replacement in Smith and McInirney. Plus Ballenden is a ruck/forward.

 

[a mayes ing]

None of them have shown the qualities or leadership that Beams, Rockliff and Zorko have, good young players nowhere near ready to to shoulder the load that will be left then these three are nearing the end in 2-3 years time when there beat football is nearing the end. Your spine will need 5-7 years to develop, that's hoping all goes well without hiccups such as injuries and players leaving or simply not developing into the players everybody hoped they would be.

Again another few things:
You obviously havent seen much of them: Berry has leadership in spades, genuinly think he would have been captain of our team if not for Andrews who will be. McCgluggage will be a gun, Witherden is looking quality. Taylor also was captain of Vic Country so he has leadership credentials. Our young group while inconsistent are the ones driving our play most of the time while our seniors have been coasting.
Not ready to shoulder the burden yet, but they don't need to just yet. By the time our seniors retire which will be in 4+ years then they can. However, most likely they will move forward a lot earlier to give the young guys midfield minutes.
Another point, l don't believe spine needs 5-7 years to develop. Andrews and McStay have already spent 3+ years in the senior team and contributing. Hippy and Schach will need time but it is already there 2nd year, so hopefuly only another 3 years to be a dominant force (Hippy probably sooner i reckon)

 

[PP34]

are the blues aiming to have a red hot crack while Gibbs, Murphy, Kruezer and Simpson are still around? all pushing 30 or above. can it all go right in the next 1/2 years.

I'd assume so. But I think Murphy, Kreuzer and Gibbs can hang around for a fair while. Kreuzer hasn't played a lot of footy compared to most 28 year olds so if his legs hold up, I'd assume he'll be around for a while. Gibbs and Murphy are the sort of players to play into their 30s in my opinion.

Simpson might be the only one who misses out on success. Starting to show a bit of a decline in some of our games this year and I'm not convinced we'll be a finals team in 1-2 years.

 

[Great8]

It's good to see everyone worrying about our youth retention, despite it being one of the league's best these past few years.

It's only natural though that as your team gets better other clubs will raid you. As these kids keep improving there will come some big offers that will be too good to refuse. You will do well to hold onto them all, it's just a reality all clubs have to face now

 

[Snake_Baker]

Brisbane, provided they can keep their list intact.

 

[M Malice]

Great well thought out OP Bazza97 . A thought on the general tone of the thread so far-

Our so called lack of ability to hold on to elite young talent is a myth, since the go home 5 debacle we have had an excellent retention record, some of the many contract extensions are Hipwood, Berry, McStay, Matheison, Cutler, Schache, Andrews, Gardner, Taylor, Mayes, Keays.

I started a thread on our retention issues on the Lions board, below is my OP from that thread with a more detailed look at it.


IMO this narrative that we are leaking young guns post the go home 5 debacle is a media generated perception. This is what has happened since the GH5 re players leaving not including free agency/delisting-

2014 trade outs-
Joel Patfull- a mutual decision for a great club stalwart, win win.
Jack Crisp- involved in Beams deal, Crisp a solid player but a win for us.
2014 trade ins-
Allen Christensen- used the pick we got for Patfull (21) to acquire Allen, great result IMO for the future of or club.
Dayne Beams- great result, is an elite player of the competition.
2015 trade outs-
Jack Redden- time for him to move on, was going stale, win for us acquiring pick 17.
James Aish- in hindsight looks like no great loss.
2015 trade ins-
Tom Bell, Josh Walker, Jarrad Jansen, Ryan Bastinac- 3 B grade type players at best.
2016 trade outs-
Pearce Hanley- was part of a problem at the club, said he was sick of losing.
2016 trade ins-
Jack Frost- jury out, we needed a relatively experienced KPD with Justin Clarke unfortunately retiring.

Grand total of 5 players traded out ie. Pearce Hanley, Jack Redden, James Aish, Jack Crisp and Joel Patfull. 2 what some would call young guns in Aish and Crisp, hardly a flood of young players wanting out, Crisp was willing to stay but was needed to get the Beams deal done. Aish the only young player who was desperate to get out. IMO a terrific effort retention wise since the GH5 especially considering our turmoil re coaching, facilities and our terrible form on the field.

young guns drafted in, drafts 2012-16 ie. post the year the GH5 were drafted in, i'll extend it out to the first 2 rounds of the draft-
Sam Mayes, Marco Paparone, Michael Close, James Aish, Darcy Gardner, Daniel McStay, Lewis Taylor, Tom Cutler, Nick Robertson, Josh Schache, Eric Hipwood, Ben Keays, Rhys Matheison (3rd round gun), Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Alex Witherden, Cedric Cox.

Only one young gun player (Aish) lost. While we need to remain vigilant and pro active with our retention strategies there is no need to over inflate the situation IMO.

 

[Ron The Bear]

It's good to see everyone worrying about our youth retention, despite it being one of the league's best these past few years.

We're only worried that you might ask for another PP if you don't get it right.

 

[JayJ20]

Pretty hard to say. I think Brisbane are building the better foundation, but Carlton already have their defence sorted. Also have Cripps and SPS.

Brisbane however has the better developing forward line. I'll say Brisbane just, but not with a lot of confidence

 

[footyfan000001]

Hipwood
Schache
Witherden
Matheison
Taylor
Keays
McGluggage
McStay
Andrews

probably excites me a little more than:

Curnow
Petrevski-Seton
Silvagni
Cripps
Docherty
Weitering
Marchbank
Plowman
Cunningham
McCreadie

But it's very close and both on the right track!

Lions at least have their spine sorted for the next 10 years whereas the Blues really need to get another young key forward in.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Gibbs is the type of player to go until he's 35 and Murphy could easily be transitioned into a small forward as he gets older to extend his career. It'd be handy for Kreuzer to hang around as a bonus but rucks are not essential to winning a flag as good as he has been.

Think our reliance on our senior guys is overplayed. Curnow, Marchbank, Docherty and Cripps have all been essential this year. Cuningham, SOS, Plowman, SPS tracking very well for their age. Would love to see a few more mids and another developing tall but enjoy the idea of building from defence.

Just enjoy having something to get excited about and Brisbane supporters should be feeling the same. Love seeing them win against the odds.

 

[Blueboys11]

I really like the back six that Carlton are building. In 3-4 years time that defense could very well be the best in the league.

B: Plowman, Weitering, Byrne

HB: Docherty, Marchbank, Williamson

I'd be putting Jones in there instead of Weitering. Jones will be our full back for the next 5 years. A potential genuine A grader if he can keep his form up.

Weitering will be a swing man, but likely spend a lot of time forward

 

[TheKITC]

I won't talk too much about the state of our list and our prospects, have done enough of that on the Carlton board. It is safe to say that I, and many other Carlton fans, are very happy with what the club has done since Trigg/McKay/Bolton took over and SOS with our list has done a super job IMO. The job isn't done and we still need to do well the next couple of draft/trade periods to solidify the good work that's already been put in place. I think next year isn't a finals potential year for us again, but after that we should be looking at heading that way.

Brisbane is a list that I think is criminally underrated and is so because of their poor performances over the past couple of years. Their KP talent in particular is absolutely stacked with quality which seems to go massively under the radar. I liken them to the Essendon way where they grabbed a heap of good KPP and left the midfield thin to draft hard later, hoping they would all develop around the same time (obviously Hirdy stuffed that up for everyone, but it was a good plan IMO). I would love to shake one or two loose and the scary thing is, Schache would be no where near the top of that list. They need to keep building their mid stocks IMO, particularly a couple of big, strong midfielders who can perhaps do a 60/40 inside/outside job and perhaps add a touch of class. Think they'll go mids with all their good draft picks coming up (academy prospects pending I guess).

I've got high hopes for both teams, will be some good battles over the next few years I think.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I've been watching Brisbane closely this year and will be at Brisbane vs Carlton next week, really looking forward to it. Hoping we regain a few of the younger injured guys in Marchbank and Williamson because it'd be great watching two young teams having a crack.

For our respective rebuilds I think Brisbane are ahead in their lists development but I don't think there is much difference, if any, on the talent 23 and under on each list.

Have watched most of the VFL games this season and have been really impressed with a few of the younger guys.

Seems a lot of neutrals can see the talent in our defense. I'm not sure why Kreuzer is a worry for some. Brisbanes ruckman is 31, Ryder is almost 30 and Sandilands is 34.

Surprisingly our forward line doesn't really bother me. Charlie Curnow has developed sticky fingers and a beautiful kick and looks every bit as talented as anyone being mentioned. Once we have a replacement for Casboult I think we'll see a far more functional forward line. Casboult, whilst he's doing his best, I really believe he's a terrible footy brain - what I mean by this is he had no idea how to lead, doesn't separate and often spoils his teammates in the forward 50. Good luck to whoever signs him end of season. Harry McKay is one we're itching to see given a chance.

We've got a coach who has out coached more than he's been out coached this year and knows how to keep the boys motivated. I think if we can get a few extra two way runners in the team we'll jump up the ladder a bit. When this rebuild started. We were comfortably in a worse spot than Brisbane so I'm proud of the growth the club has shown in pulling its arrogant head in and getting with the times. We've got about 20 years change and catching up to do, think we've started well.

Cripps is a freak. No preseason, broken jaw, broken ribs and he was still monstering games. Hopefully by beginning of next season we'll see him and stronger versions of our young mids running riot.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I won't talk too much about the state of our list and our prospects, have done enough of that on the Carlton board. It is safe to say that I, and many other Carlton fans, are very happy with what the club has done since Trigg/McKay/Bolton took over and SOS with our list has done a super job IMO. The job isn't done and we still need to do well the next couple of draft/trade periods to solidify the good work that's already been put in place. I think next year isn't a finals potential year for us again, but after that we should be looking at heading that way.

Brisbane is a list that I think is criminally underrated and is so because of their poor performances over the past couple of years. Their KP talent in particular is absolutely stacked with quality which seems to go massively under the radar. I liken them to the Essendon way where they grabbed a heap of good KPP and left the midfield thin to draft hard later, hoping they would all develop around the same time (obviously Hirdy stuffed that up for everyone, but it was a good plan IMO). I would love to shake one or two loose and the scary thing is, Schache would be no where near the top of that list. They need to keep building their mid stocks IMO, particularly a couple of big, strong midfielders who can perhaps do a 60/40 inside/outside job and perhaps add a touch of class. Think they'll go mids with all their good draft picks coming up (academy prospects pending I guess).



I've got high hopes for both teams, will be some good battles over the next few years I think.

Jacob Allison is a potential big bodied mid. As for KPP we also have Ballendon coming in who is showing very good signs as a defender.

 

[Bazza97]

I've been watching Brisbane closely this year and will be at Brisbane vs Carlton next week, really looking forward to it. Hoping we regain a few of the younger injured guys in Marchbank and Williamson because it'd be great watching two young teams having a crack.

For our respective rebuilds I think Brisbane are ahead in their lists development but I don't think there is much difference, if any, on the talent 23 and under on each list.

Have watched most of the VFL games this season and have been really impressed with a few of the younger guys.

Seems a lot of neutrals can see the talent in our defense. I'm not sure why Kreuzer is a worry for some. Brisbanes ruckman is 31, Ryder is almost 30 and Sandilands is 34.

Surprisingly our forward line doesn't really bother me. Charlie Curnow has developed sticky fingers and a beautiful kick and looks every bit as talented as anyone being mentioned. Once we have a replacement for Casboult I think we'll see a far more functional forward line. Casboult, whilst he's doing his best, I really believe he's a terrible footy brain - what I mean by this is he had no idea how to lead, doesn't separate and often spoils his teammates in the forward 50. Good luck to whoever signs him end of season. Harry McKay is one we're itching to see given a chance.

We've got a coach who has out coached more than he's been out coached this year and knows how to keep the boys motivated. I think if we can get a few extra two way runners in the team we'll jump up the ladder a bit. When this rebuild started. We were comfortably in a worse spot than Brisbane so I'm proud of the growth the club has shown in pulling its arrogant head in and getting with the times. We've got about 20 years change and catching up to do, think we've started well.

Cripps is a freak. No preseason, broken jaw, broken ribs and he was still monstering games. Hopefully by beginning of next season we'll see him and stronger versions of our young mids running riot.

Hope Williamson and Marchbank can get up for the game. Would also love to catch a glimpse of McKay soon, is he a chance to debut this week? Have loved what Charlie Curnow has done this year and predicted he would break out. Do you reckon Weitering will play up forward again or will he stay back?

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Hope Williamson and Marchbank can get up for the game. Would also love to catch a glimpse of McKay soon, is he a chance to debut this week? Have loved what Charlie Curnow has done this year and predicted he would break out. Do you reckon Weitering will play up forward again or will he stay back?

Mckay was played in the ruck for the first time at VFL level - our VFL team was so poor with basically only senior listed players who are gone end of year left in the squad. So we got smashed and he didn't get any half decent delivery up forward. He'd be half a chance to debut but thats about it.

Weits almost certain to stay down back or miss - looks to be carrying an injury as he has been soft in the contest the last two or three weeks.

 

[a mayes ing]

Very happy with how we have rebuilt. All our KPP's are set. Another one in Skinner who will surprise a few, hopefully he debuts before the end of season. All we really need are more mids.

 

[Arr0w]

Think Brisbane are slightly ahead, that spine of talented youth is very exciting. It is for this reason I believe Brisbane would be a year ahead in the rebuild stakes. This could all change with the next couple of trade/draft periods

 

[Bic]

Be interesting to see how things go in this years draft - all it takes is one poor year and it sets you back a little.

Harry McKay is the one for Carlton. If he actually develops into what we think he will develop into (think Joe Daniher type of player) then we are ok.

Do we trade our top 3 pick this year for a Josh Kelly? All of a sudden Cripps/SPS/Kelly is a great combo in the middle.

I think Carlton are ahead at this stage purely because we are more competitive at the moment - even though I think Brisbane will knock us off this week!

 

[Monopoly_Man]

Brisbane vs Carlton in the 2020 grand final. I'll come back and bump this when it happens and make a bad pun about 20/20 vision.

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Viceregal]

Brisbane vs Carlton in the 2020 grand final.

You are being mean ... think of the poor Collingwood supporters trying to work out who to barrack for in that game

 

[brad cooper]

You are being mean ... think of the poor Collingwood supporters trying to work out who to barrack for in that game

Don't worry about the pies fans, they'll be still trying to work out how its all gone wrong since 2010.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Brisbane is doing its due penance at the bottom and has been among the three youngest teams for four years straight. At this stage they appear the more likely to sustain a rise up the ladder.

Too early to comment on the prospects of either, though.