Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Beer n Skittles]

Carlton do have some very good young talent on their list, but save for Cripps, Curnow and more recently Dow - I question their work rate.

Rumour on the Carlton board that the club end of season review was questioning their work rate too. Part of the reason for going after Andrew Russell

 

[bungalow_bill]

If and its a big if, Carlton nab Dylan Shiel to play alongside Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps, then I would say the Blues have both better quality and quantity then Lions for next year although not by much.

Cam Rayner is not getting much love on this discussion board, I think his upside is as good as anyone on Carltons list. Hipwood still looks very raw and unpolished for mine, game against Hawks in tassie he showed a fair bit though.

Rayner has Dustin Martin potential. Mid field monster and a dangerous forward. Hipwood is on the brink of becoming the Buddy-esque forward we all thought he would develop into

 

[KermitJagger]

Rayner has Dustin Martin potential. Mid field monster and a dangerous forward. Hipwood is on the brink of becoming the Buddy-esque forward we all thought he would develop into

I don't like the comparisons to Buddy when it comes to tall forwards - he's more of a Joe Daniher. Looks good but he genuinely needs to find a way to put on some size.

Rayner is different to Dusty too, he's a much better mark and taller. He also seems to be more serious about his footy. The way Rayner marked the ball on occasion this year was bringing back memories of Jono Brown, he will be a gun.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I don't like the comparisons to Buddy when it comes to tall forwards - he's more of a Joe Daniher. Looks good but he genuinely needs to find a way to put on some size.

Rayner is different to Dusty too, he's a much better mark and taller. He also seems to be more serious about his footy. The way Rayner marked the ball on occasion this year was bringing back memories of Jono Brown, he will be a gun.

Will be interesting to see whether this hybrid forward-type becomes the must-have.

DeGoey
C.Curnow
Petracca
Stringer/the Package
Rayner

These super mobile types were sort of unheard of back in the 90s.

 

[chunkylover53]

Rayner has Dustin Martin potential. Mid field monster and a dangerous forward. Hipwood is on the brink of becoming the Buddy-esque forward we all thought he would develop into

Cmon man, Hipwood kicked 37 goals from 22 games, Buddy kicked 113 from 25 at the same age.

I like the Lions and think this will be a fun rivalry over the next decade, but I’d a Carlton fan jumped on here and said Curnow is becoming Buddy-esque they’d get blasted.

 

[KermitJagger]

Will be interesting to see whether this hybrid forward-type becomes the must-have.

DeGoey
C.Curnow
Petracca
Stringer/the Package
Rayner

These super mobile types were sort of unheard of back in the 90s.

The resting rover type was a lot bigger in the early days but the best example of the modern hybrid forward was probably Anthony Koutoufides.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Will be interesting to see whether this hybrid forward-type becomes the must-have.

DeGoey
C.Curnow
Petracca
Stringer/the Package
Rayner

These super mobile types were sort of unheard of back in the 90s.

Ablett snr

 

[KermitJagger]

Ablett snr

Ablett Snr probably had the potential to do so, but he never played through the middle which is what these guys do. Juddernaut is talking about the guys who can go in and grab a clearance at will but be a genuine threat 1v1 forward of centre too.

Ablett was only ever a HFF early and a FF late.

I genuinely believe these guys were full forwards in the 90s. After hearing stories of what Lockett used to do as a junior, playing every role including ruck I have no doubt that he'd be a hybrid forward in 2018/2019. Same with Ablett Sr, Modra, Dunstall.

Throw Dusty back into the 90s and he'd be kicking 70-100 goals a season playing out of the goal square.

 

[Thrawn]

Cmon man, Hipwood kicked 37 goals from 22 games, Buddy kicked 113 from 25 at the same age.

I like the Lions and think this will be a fun rivalry over the next decade, but I’d a Carlton fan jumped on here and said Curnow is becoming Buddy-esque they’d get blasted.

Curnow reminds me more of Kouta.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Curnow reminds me more of Kouta.

I like Hipwood a lot. Would take him over McKay.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I don't like the comparisons to Buddy when it comes to tall forwards - he's more of a Joe Daniher. Looks good but he genuinely needs to find a way to put on some size.

Rayner is different to Dusty too, he's a much better mark and taller. He also seems to be more serious about his footy. The way Rayner marked the ball on occasion this year was bringing back memories of Jono Brown, he will be a gun.

Yeah he needs to put on some muscle but not sure how much he can put on given his stick figure body.

One of Rayner's screamers at the 36 sec mark

 

[KermitJagger]

Yeah he needs to put on some muscle but not sure how much he can put on given his stick figure body.

One of Rayner's screamers at the 36 sec mark

That pluck over the top, from behind - that was the Browny moment I mentioned. That was where I stopped and thought wow.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Carlton & Brisbane have almost been tied at the hip since that 2009 Elimination final, Carlton stayed up a bit longer than us in the early 10's but since then we've both been bottom clubs.

I'd like to see 1. Lions and 2. Carlton for years to come and I'm sure Carlton fans wouldn't mind seeing 1. Carlton and 2. Lions.

Think it could happen in 3-4 years, lots of talent on both lists and I feel once Carlton start their rise they'll get a high quality FA or two who will jump on board because of the 'Big club in Vic' factor and quicken their rise.

 

[sosos]

First time Carlton's done a proper rebuild. Finally got a batch of young talent in rather than the messiah pick, or the one or two young guns, and the rest top ups, which was the M.O for a while. So for the first time this century, I have some genuine confidence(as opposed to bravado).

But Brisbane have made big inroads and look ahead at this stage. Not sure the Beams loss is really balanced by the Neale acquisition, though OFC Neale is a good player, just different types.
Also really need Stefan Martin to stay on the park.

 

[blitzer]

I find it hard to believe that Carlton will be within a mile of Brisbane next season. You could see the improvement of Brisbane in 2018. Their % was up, they lost a lot of games with close margins which is the hallmark of an improving but young and inexperienced side. 3 wins and 30% better than Carlton with a better list demographic. The reason I say better is they have less over 30s that are about to retire and are important to their side.

Cripps is really the only point of difference in Carlton's favour.
Curnow vs Hipwood is around equal.
I don't see anyone on Carlton's list aside from the first 2 who can match up with McCluggage, Berry, Witherden and Rayner in terms of young prospects. Brisbane's midfield is going to be seriously scary in a short time. The high picks of Carlton just simply are not on the same level and their development has to be called into question with the stalling of a number of young careers especially Weitering and SPS.

Just looking at Carlton's best and fairest: Kade Simpson (2nd), Ed Curnow (equal 3rd), Dale Thomas (5th), Liam Jones (6th), Sam Rowe (8th) and Marc Murphy (10th). That is a seriously ugly set of names. Quite a few very close to retirement and frankly not all that good in any case. I doubt anyone would be excited by the 2018 best and fairest. In fact considering that all year we heard Carlton fans telling us they were only losing because they were so young, its a pretty awful result.

 

[btdg]

Carlton & Brisbane have almost been tied at the hip since that 2009 Elimination final, Carlton stayed up a bit longer than us in the early 10's but since then we've both been bottom clubs.

I'd like to see 1. Lions and 2. Carlton for years to come and I'm sure Carlton fans wouldn't mind seeing 1. Carlton and 2. Lions.

Think it could happen in 3-4 years, lots of talent on both lists and I feel once Carlton start their rise they'll get a high quality FA or two who will jump on board because of the 'Big club in Vic' factor and quicken their rise.

Nup - i would even take 1. Lions and 2. Blues at this point. Sure, we all dream of premiership but take an agonising but relevant loss...

Brisbane are ahead on the tineline though, so your first two premerships will probably be against other teams. The you can win the 3peat against us, we will get you the following year for our first, and then you get one back before we take over and win the next 3 after that as you start to fall away a bit. Sound fair?

 

[sosos]

I find it hard to believe that Carlton will be within a mile of Brisbane next season. You could see the improvement of Brisbane in 2018. Their % was up, they lost a lot of games with close margins which is the hallmark of an improving but young and inexperienced side. 3 wins and 30% better than Carlton with a better list demographic. The reason I say better is they have less over 30s that are about to retire and are important to their side.

Cripps is really the only point of difference in Carlton's favour.
Curnow vs Hipwood is around equal.
I don't see anyone on Carlton's list aside from the first 2 who can match up with McCluggage, Berry, Witherden and Rayner in terms of young prospects. Brisbane's midfield is going to be seriously scary in a short time. The high picks of Carlton just simply are not on the same level and their development has to be called into question with the stalling of a number of young careers especially Weitering and SPS.

Just looking at Carlton's best and fairest: Kade Simpson (2nd), Ed Curnow (equal 3rd), Dale Thomas (5th), Liam Jones (6th), Sam Rowe (8th) and Marc Murphy (10th). That is a seriously ugly set of names. Quite a few very close to retirement and frankly not all that good in any case. I doubt anyone would be excited by the 2018 best and fairest. In fact considering that all year we heard Carlton fans telling us they were only losing because they were so young, its a pretty awful result.

Not arguing Lions aren't ahead. Development was addressed by the review and subsequent addition of Russell and probably a new assistant coach structure etc.

But Dow contributed well for a first year player, Fisher had a breakout season until injury, O'Brien looks like he'll be a player while players like Williamson, Kennedy had seasons destroyed by injuries.

Sps had no preseason and while not having had a great year, they pumped a lot of games into him and I have high hopes for him next year. Weitering lost form and confidence plus injuries interrupted his year but he started to rebound towards the end.

Carlton had a bad year and they ended up playing a lot of 2nd string players to cover gaps. The review also panned the game plan so that should improve going forward.

Carlton fans certainly said the side was young. But you cannot discount a devastating amount of injuries in the wash up to a team without any depth.

A lot of neutrals have given Blues a much fairer appraisal than you managed. I wonder why?

 

[cotter101]

Carlton had a good trade period. I expect them to be vastly improved next season.

 

[a mayes ing]

No he hasn’t. Harry McKay (who is far more similar in the role he plays and in playing style to Hipwood) from limited exposure and in basically his first real year of AFL had similar output to Hipwood in the games he played.

um wat? (all roughly same age), McKay has 21 goals, Hipwood has 37 goals, Curnow has 34 goals. Am aware that Curnow was used up the ground a bit but Hipwood is clearly ahead of McKay

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Carlton do have some very good young talent on their list, but save for Cripps, Curnow and more recently Dow - I question their work rate.

fitness* it takes several pre seasons to build the fitness base required to cover the ground, get numbers to the contest and apply repeat pressure efforts.

the increased aerobic load these athletes have had to be able to carry in these last few years since they capped rotations is a big reason why it takes longer to rebuild with youth in this era.

I think in general what we call lack of effort is really lack of conditioning. AFL players are the top football players in the country, it's ridiculous to assume that any of them don't give 100% effort.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

um wat? (all roughly same age), McKay has 21 goals, Hipwood has 37 goals, Curnow has 34 goals. Am aware that Curnow was used up the ground a bit but Hipwood is clearly ahead of McKay

theyre almost exactly the same age, because of curnow mckay took longer to break into the side so his career totals will be slightly down but mckay averages 10.6 disposals, 5.4 marks and 1.6 goals a game last year while hipwood averages 10.6 disposals, 4.2 marks and 1.6 goals a game this year.

Hipwood probably has more upside due to his athleticism but mckays athleticism is also underrated. They're production up to this point has been pretty comparable, maybe hipwood has a slight edge but it's certainly not a ridiculous conversation.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I find it hard to believe that Carlton will be within a mile of Brisbane next season. You could see the improvement of Brisbane in 2018. Their % was up, they lost a lot of games with close margins which is the hallmark of an improving but young and inexperienced side. 3 wins and 30% better than Carlton with a better list demographic. The reason I say better is they have less over 30s that are about to retire and are important to their side.

Cripps is really the only point of difference in Carlton's favour.
Curnow vs Hipwood is around equal.
I don't see anyone on Carlton's list aside from the first 2 who can match up with McCluggage, Berry, Witherden and Rayner in terms of young prospects. Brisbane's midfield is going to be seriously scary in a short time. The high picks of Carlton just simply are not on the same level and their development has to be called into question with the stalling of a number of young careers especially Weitering and SPS.

Just looking at Carlton's best and fairest: Kade Simpson (2nd), Ed Curnow (equal 3rd), Dale Thomas (5th), Liam Jones (6th), Sam Rowe (8th) and Marc Murphy (10th). That is a seriously ugly set of names. Quite a few very close to retirement and frankly not all that good in any case. I doubt anyone would be excited by the 2018 best and fairest. In fact considering that all year we heard Carlton fans telling us they were only losing because they were so young, its a pretty awful result.

Lions surged ahead towards the end of last season but carlton won more games in 2017 than brisbane did in 2018. carlton had a terrible run of injuries last year while brisbane had a decent run. I'm just saying that the growth of rebuilding footy sides is not linear.

west coast rebuild at the end of judd era went:
2008:4-18 15th of 16
2009:8-14 11th of 16
2010:4-18 16th of 16
2011:17-5 prelim

their third year of the rebuild was their worst just like carlton's 2018. i'm certainly not suggest carlton will make a prelim next year, in fact i still expect them to be bottom 4, but I think everyone needs to surrender to the fact that no one really has any idea what will happen (as if we don't learn that lesson every year)

 

[Great8]

I think the Lions are a couple of years more advanced than Carlton and could play finals as early as 2020. I’d expect them to grab a few more wins and finish just a few wins outside the 8. Carlton will still finish bottom 2 in 2019 but should start being more competitive and win a couple more games. Their increase will come in 2020 and are probably 3-4 years away from finals

 

[a mayes ing]

theyre almost exactly the same age, because of curnow mckay took longer to break into the side so his career totals will be slightly down but mckay averages 10.6 disposals, 5.4 marks and 1.6 goals a game last year while hipwood averages 10.6 disposals, 4.2 marks and 1.6 goals a game this year.

Hipwood probably has more upside due to his athleticism but mckays athleticism is also underrated. They're production up to this point has been pretty comparable, maybe hipwood has a slight edge but it's certainly not a ridiculous conversation.

Okay maybe "ridiculously better" is a bit ott. However, just because he averages the same amount of goals doesn't mean he is about the same. Hippy played all the games whereas McKay played, what half? So Hipwood has had to do the grind for the whole season added to that play against the best defender of the opposition whereas McKay would have the 2nd best. If a player plays 5 games and averages 2 goals a game, it doesn't mean he is the same or as good as a player who gets 2 goals a game for the whole season.

 

[Damon_3388]

Unless there's a bunch of unexpected free agency acquisitions, I don't think either side has enough quantity or quality in that prime age group (ages 25-29, born 1990-1994) going into the 2019 season to really go beyond the bottom six.