Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Juddernaut08]

Options for 2019:

Rucks: Kreuzer (perhaps TDK)
Inside mids: Cripps Kennedy Setterfield Curnow
Balanced mids: Dow SPS Walsh
Outside mids: Murphy Fisher LOB Lang

As you can see, ideally Shiel wouldve led the balanced mid section. Inside we are OK next season if fit.

Outside is almost OK.

Balanced we have kids kids kids.

 

[newblueo]

Sos will be a champ or chump spending 3 2nd round picks on three players who played 10 games of footy between them.

Also gave up 2 handy league players..

Suns have the worst list in the afl but carlton is a close 2nd with st kilda 3rd

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Curnow is overrated. Will do a few thing that look good but overall not worth the hype

Moved on from Cripps have you MOC? Wonder why......

Take your trolling elsewhere, you bore us.

 

[Checkered]

The gap between Curnow and Hipwood is larger than Hipwood to McKay.

Theres an argument to be made that McKay will be the best of the 3 as he is a freak matchup...as there is for Hippy.

Potentially all have massive ceilings though.

Hipwood has kicked more goals than Curnow every single year, but is miiiiiiles behind him. Yeah right.

You could argue that Curnow is further advanced than Hipwood too as he's filled out and has an AFL ready body. Hipwood is still probably 2-3 years away from having the bulk to stand his ground but is still kicking more goals.

You could argue either way who you think will be a better player but any talk of a massive difference between the two is crap.

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Players in our best 22 under 22:
18:
Walsh*
19:
Dow
O'Brien
20:
Fisher
Polson
SPS
21:
Weitering
C Curnow
McKay
22:
Marchbank
Kennedy

That's exactly half unless Kreuzer gets injured, then De Koning (19) will likely be the replacement. Setterfield (20), Silvagni (21), Pickett (22) will also be considered.

 

[Monkey King]

Hipwood has kicked more goals than Curnow every single year ...

If counting goals was all there was to it, Matthew Lloyd would’ve been a better player than Carey.

In 2018 Curnow actually averaged more goals than Hipwood, just played less games is all, so there goes that idea. But where the rub really kicks in is every other statistic. Only area Hipwood has a real advantage is goal assists. Same amount of marks inside 50 but where Curnow’s game is elevated is he took a bunch more marks outside 50 and took twice as many contested grabs, which sums up the difference between these two players more than a goal count.

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Hipwood has kicked more goals than Curnow every single year, but is miiiiiiles behind him. Yeah right.

You could argue that Curnow is further advanced than Hipwood too as he's filled out and has an AFL ready body. Hipwood is still probably 2-3 years away from having the bulk to stand his ground but is still kicking more goals.

You could argue either way who you think will be a better player but any talk of a massive difference between the two is crap.

2018
Hipwood - 37 goals, 22 games, avg. 1.68. Percentage of team scoring 13.89%
Curnow - 34 goals, 20 games, avg. 1.7. Percentage of team scoring 17.7%, the percentage of team scoring while playing (i.e. not including the 2 games he didn't play) 19.42%

2017
Hipwood - 30 goals, 20 games, avg. 1.5. Percentage of team scoring 10.8%, percentage while playing 11.8%
Curnow - 20 goals, 21 games, avg. 0.95. Percentage of team scoring 8.6%, percentage while playing 9.04%

2016
Hipwood - 11 goals, 10 games avg. 1.1 Percentage of team scoring 4.3%, percentage while playing 8.7%
Curnow - 5 goals, 6 games, avg. 0.86. Percentage of team scoring 2.2%, percentage while playing 9.4%

Brisbane is clearly a higher scoring team, and you are right about having more goals every year, although Curnow had a higher average this year. He has been significantly better this year as far as team influence.
Hipwood was significantly better in 2017
Curnow was slightly better in 2016, although you could argue they are even. A slightly lower average but a slightly higher team influence sees a close match-up.

I still think Curnow is better if you look at the bigger picture, although his 2017 season was clearly worse, his 2018 is clearly better and their first season is even

 

[Juddernaut08]

Hipwood has kicked more goals than Curnow every single year, but is miiiiiiles behind him. Yeah right.

You could argue that Curnow is further advanced than Hipwood too as he's filled out and has an AFL ready body. Hipwood is still probably 2-3 years away from having the bulk to stand his ground but is still kicking more goals.

You could argue either way who you think will be a better player but any talk of a massive difference between the two is crap.

Calm down buddy. I didnt say Curnow is a much better prospect, just that hes better now.

Its not miles ahead, but its more of a gap currently than Hipwood vs McKay.

If you cant understand basic relativity I suggest you read a book son.

 

[ManOfClay]

My point is being proven beautifully

 

[bungalow_bill]

Sos will be a champ or chump spending 3 2nd round picks on three players who played 10 games of footy between them.

Also gave up 2 handy league players..

Suns have the worst list in the afl but carlton is a close 2nd with st kilda 3rd

Yeah would have been a good idea to keep the mature age players. What's the go on Setterfield injury wise?

Hipwood has kicked more goals than Curnow every single year, but is miiiiiiles behind him. Yeah right.

You could argue that Curnow is further advanced than Hipwood too as he's filled out and has an AFL ready body. Hipwood is still probably 2-3 years away from having the bulk to stand his ground but is still kicking more goals.

You could argue either way who you think will be a better player but any talk of a massive difference between the two is crap.

Good point about the AFL ready body. Hipwood is a stick figure and still kicks more goals - and his last pre season was affected by him having a virus. Few more pre seasons and he will be a total nightmare for opposition defenders.

 

[iBeng]

Carlton and Brisbane fans shouldnt be debating Hipwood v Curnow because we are clearly going to be biased.

 

[Checkered]

Calm down buddy. I didnt say Curnow is a much better prospect, just that hes better now.

Its not miles ahead, but its more of a gap currently than Hipwood vs McKay.

If you cant understand basic relativity I suggest you read a book son.

Voss >>> Cripps > Beastmode

 

[Trav 20]

Perhaps your expectations of a young player under the circumstances contributed to your disappointment. He’s 21yo, hopefully gets a full preseason in. Let him have a run at it.

I've been in a position to benchmark him. I've seen a teenage Brayshaw star in a victory at Kardinia Park, I've seen an 18 year old Oliver get brownlow votes in his first game of AFL, I've seen Viney have Bog performances at 20.

The good news is he doesn't need my approval for a "run at it".

 

[Monkey King]

I've been in a position to benchmark him. I've seen a teenage Brayshaw star in a victory at Kardinia Park, I've seen an 18 year old Oliver get brownlow votes in his first game of AFL, I've seen Viney have Bog performances at 20.

The good news is he doesn't need my approval for a "run at it".

You’re in no greater position to benchmark him than any football follower.

Oliver is star. If that’s your benchmark I’d say most young mids are gonna disappoint you. If Kennedy was to turn out as good as any of these three Carlton would have an absolute steal on their hands.

There’s really not much more for me to say. Young fella was injured most of the preseason and season proper and you’re making comparisons to these guys. No wonder you’re disappointed.

 

[pressurepoint]

No argument that Brisbane is ahead of Carlton in the progress of the rebuilds. A line by line analysis needs to be undertaken for each list and when that is done you can see why Brisbane are ahead. Simply put there are more mature players on their list contributing, and those mature players are better quality.

Carlton's 2017 saw 6 wins. We won those matches due to our mature bodies staying healthy. Our BnF placings were as follows: Murphy, Docherty, Kreuzer, Gibbs. Our 2018 was different. Gibbs traded. Docherty did his knee in preseason. Murphy and Kreuzer missed many games, battled through injury, were catcus.

Our 2019 will largely depend on those players staying fit and contributing. If Murphy, Kreuzer, Docherty (together with Cripps, Simpson, Curnows) are all firing, we can hit 6 wins again. If you add some general list improvement - e.g Marchbank, Kennedy, Dow, SPS, McGovern, Fisher all putting in personal best seasons - then we can perhaps nab a few more.

Having said all that the game plan is more important in 2019. Our 6 wins in 2017 were hard fought wins grounded out on an ultra-defensive game plan. I honestly can't tell you what our game plan in 2018 was. Compare that to Brisbane this year, you know the style of footy they wanted to play.

The continuity in the list is there now. These blokes have played a good stretch of footy together.

I think 8 wins in 2019 is a solid pass for Carlton. I feel Bolton is in trouble if we don't get near that figure.

The Lions aren't going backwards. If I was a Lions fan I would be happy with 10 wins.

 

[Trav 20]

You’re in no greater position to benchmark him than any football follower.

Oliver is star. If that’s your benchmark I’d say most young mids are gonna disappoint you. If Kennedy was to turn out as good as any of these three Carlton would have an absolute steal on their hands.

There’s really not much more for me to say. Young fella was injured most of the preseason and season proper and you’re making comparisons to these guys. No wonder you’re disappointed.

I was disappointed watching him play for GWS.

I get why they let him go.

 

[Monkey King]

I was disappointed watching him play for GWS.

I get why they let him go.

If you’re expecting him to play like Oliver it’s little wonder.

 

[Trav 20]

If you’re expecting him to play like Oliver it’s little wonder.

It's hard for young players. Even Jacob Hopper, who's a bull, has been pretty ordinary for the most part. It's why I think Carlton will still really struggle. Way too many inexperienced light frames.

If you're happy with Kennedy that's the main thing. My opinion shouldn't concern you.

 

[SizeMatters]

Carltons potential ceiling is higher than the Lions. However potential is a dirty word.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

My point is being proven beautifully

What point is that?

 

[ManOfClay]

What point is that?

That curnow is overrated. Look at the comparisons to hipwood.

Here's a handy bit of info: you are a two win team. Your players aren't as good as you think they are vs their contemporaries.

 

[La Dispute]

That curnow is overrated. Look at the comparisons to hipwood.

Here's a handy bit of info: you are a two win team. Your players aren't as good as you think they are vs their contemporaries.

This is a pretty basic argument, and although it seems compelling to some, it's incredible narrow.

Our biggest flaw is our very poor midfield. Naturally to be at their absolute best forwards need accurate kicks into the them, and the midfield working together to get the ball in quickly so they've got a 1-on-1 opportunity. This is where Curnow, McKay and now McGovern excel.

For the opportunities he does get, Curnow is incredibly good. He routinely wins contests he's outnumbered in, and if he doesn't manage to mark the ball he's very good at following up to neutralise the contest, or if we manage to win the ball (which is isn't often) he provides a link-up option.

I think some go OTT when evaluating Curnow, but he's currently ahead of Hipwood - not as much as some suggest, but he's got more strings to his bow, and he’s more versatile.

I'm actually more interested in seeing McKay progress. He was injured for almost his entire first year, but now with McGovern in the team he'll often get the 3rd best defender, which is going to mean a huge height advantage to exploit.

 

[Monkey King]

That curnow is overrated. Look at the comparisons to hipwood.

Here's a handy bit of info: you are a two win team. Your players aren't as good as you think they are vs their contemporaries.

You mean those pesky objective statistical comparisons that say Curnow averaged as many goals, while taking heaps more marks up the ground and twice as many contested marks.

Nah you’re right, the other blokes team won 3 more games for the season, Curnow must be s**t

Because of course, we all know in AFL footy that one man makes a team.

 

[jooce8891]

McCluggage will be a better player than Cripps. You heard it here first.

haha...

 

[Chief]

Nah we'll clean up.

#vicbias