The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?


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Isaac Cumming No 1

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For mine the difference between Giants and Suns is the Giants ensured they got quality senior players to help the talented kids, and they picked two young stars with leadership qualities in Davis and Ward.

Failed rebuilds like Melbourne and Suns believed that a glut of high draft picks will eventually come good...but they didn’t, and IMO the fact they were surrounded by poor senior players was a big part.

Even go back to teams like Geelong who had the wave of youngsters coming through, the Cats still had plenty of quality senior players to help the kids develop.

The Giants had a solid build after the first two seasons - year 3 the Giants won 6 games, year 4 they won 11 and had a % of 100

If 2015 is ground zero, the Lions had a 90% season in year three, whilst Carlton trotted put a sub 60% year.

Can see the Lions giving mid table a nudge in year 4 of their rebuild.
We added senior players like Heater and Munford more like the Demons are doing now. Filling list holes as the team around them develops. Definiteky bith if thise were critical to our rise.

I think you're missing the two wooden spoons in the timeline a bit though. At that time the future was uncertain and the Suns got out if the blocks better.

The Blues have the advantage of more senior players in house than we did, but not the volume of draft picks obviously.
 

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Monkey King

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It shows a lot of talented youngsters isn't necessarily a bad thing in the long term. They wont deliver immediately though.
I think SOS has tried a similar approach at Carlton, so that before the team ran out for game 67 of this rebuild, they’d have recruited a core of highly rated youngsters in a certain age bracket. He didn’t have the draft picks GWS had, so sold the lampshades trying to find currency for as many top picks as he could, either current or from recent drafts; he wasn’t about to turn around and trade them away for mature players in the middle of all this. Indications are that stage has now passed and Carlton will switch gears and start targeting senior talent.

The long term implications of doing it this way at Carlton won’t be known for a few years yet, but it’s hardly a failed method. Some really strong lists have started out at the draft and rounded later with mature players.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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I think SOS has tried a similar approach at Carlton, so that before the team ran out for game 67 of this rebuild, they’d have recruited a core of highly rated youngsters in a certain age bracket. He didn’t have the draft picks GWS had, so sold the lampshades trying to find currency for as many top picks as he could, either current or from recent drafts; he wasn’t about to turn around and trade them away for mature players in the middle of all this. Indications are that stage has now passed and Carlton will switch gears and start targeting senior talent.

The long term implications of doing it this way at Carlton won’t be known for a few years yet, but it’s hardly a failed method. Some really strong lists have started out at the draft and rounded later with mature players.
That all makes sense to me.

I do get we had unparalleled riches in terms of talent. You can still screw it up though.

I think the model for everyone is the Hawks 2004 to 2008.

It's actually logical to be that a team on the path you identify would be bottoming out last year. There some unique factors though.
 

Gethelred

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For those Carlton supporters crying out for informed analysis and rationale to support our not so positive opinions on Carlton's future, I hereby provide to you Exhibit A, Your Honour.

This neutral poster (Melbourne supporter) went to great lengths to provide rationale behind their assessment in July 2017, only to receive the following examples of responses from Carlton supporters.

I acknowledge I have selected parts of longer responses, but nonetheless the responses are indeed direct quotes.

So, Carlton supporters, don't go crying foul if you think this thread has degenerated into an unfair opportunity for non-believers to kick Carlton whilst they are down. It seems that regardless of how much thought and energy the impartials amongst us put into our posts, we are all met with the same responses.
By the same token...
Seems obvious that Carlton fans are really struggling to accept criticism in what i would rate as one of the worst lists i have seen. SOS can do no wrong as far as they are concerned. Im sure it will be validated in the coming years when they begin realizing what a mess he has made.
I wonder if they would be so forgiving of some nobody list manager rather than blue blood royalty like SOS , I don't think any other team has an ex champion of the club in that position

What are the advantages of having SOS over a no connection list manager ?

I can't really think of any myself but would be interested on Blues fans opinions


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The fact he has 2 children on the list is one of the biggest conflicts possible.
It's pretty incredible really.

Bolton has taken Carlton to 7 wins, 6 wins, and 2 wins.

They haven't reached 100 points in a game in 55 matches and just had their worst season in VFL/AFL history. Yet Carlton supporters seem happy to a man. And you rarely hear a bad word about Bolton from them.

Long may he continue at Carlton. And let the joy of their fans wash over him.
Look, I don't actually disagree with you here. What I will say, though, is that both Carlton supporters and opposition supporters could do better in their efforts to interact civilly.
 

owen87

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The main issue Carlton has (had) is that this is rebuild 3 on the run, none of which have really been done properly or successfully.

To completely clear the deadwood from the list meant getting rid of proven list-cloggers from the Carlton list, and bringing in recycled list-cloggers from other lists in the hope they might have something to offer. Guys like Wright and Kerridge are good examples, they were able to offer something to the team whilst stripping back the deadwood and bringing in as much highly rated young draftees as possible.

I think the strategy is very much a GWS-esque thing, except Carlton have had to procure draft picks from trades and poor on-field performance. Brisbane has had a different time of it, they've had a handful of quality players actually want to go up North and play for them, along with having a few guys on the list of mature AFL standard. They've not had the complete failure over multiple drafts that Carlton had to try to reverse.

Carlton needed to;
  • Clear the dead-wood on the list that they'd drafted in,
  • Add a number of young, talented draftees,
  • Give the young players a chance to develop together, and,
  • Add mature AFL ready players to fill holes once those players develop.

I think they've done the first three, had a crack at a few mature players like Rockliff, Shiel, Smith and Kelly. And look to have backed themselves to be in the last year of stockpiling young talent with the trade for Stocker, so will most likely start to trade in guys in the 23 - 25 bracket more heavily.

McGovern, Fasolo, Newman and to a lesser extent Setterfield (given injury and limited AFL exposure) all come in to fill specific holes in the list. Newman should be an adequate replacement for Docherty this year, Setterfield has the capability to support Cripps, Fasolo is a capable (albeit flawed) small-medium forward, and McGovern is a proven AFL standard 3rd tall to work with Curnow and McKay.

I think they'll have a real crack at Kelly this year; and Coniglio, Tomlinson and Haynes are all FA's coming from GWS that SOS would know a fair bit about. Plus there'll undoubtedly be some player(s) from interstate looking for a new club in Melbourne, and Carlton will be able to offer good money and if they can show some progress with the way they play, and some of the younger guys starting to perform, look like a team that can compete in the next 3 - 5 years.

Brisbane has had some luck with Neale being a great replacement for Beams, and are probably 1-2 years ahead of where Carlton are at.
 

Gethelred

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I believe they're planning on turning Silvagni into an inside mid. He's far too slow to play anywhere else.

While I'm not convinced it will work I think it's a good move, as they don't have a lot to lose and may just find a position for him that suits.
If possible at all, see if you can find a copy of Carlton vs Sydney this year. In that match, he absolutely tore it up through the middle of the ground before halftime, when he ran out of legs (because, as much as some might have it, you cannot train for 3 years as a forward then for a month as a midfielder and suddenly have the fitness levels of an AFL mid).

There's something to work with there. He's not a natural ball magnet like your Tom Mitchells, but he's gutsy, and he's willing to work his arse off to compete. We'll see.
 

owen87

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If possible at all, see if you can find a copy of Carlton vs Sydney this year. In that match, he absolutely tore it up through the middle of the ground before halftime, when he ran out of legs (because, as much as some might have it, you cannot train for 3 years as a forward then for a month as a midfielder and suddenly have the fitness levels of an AFL mid).

There's something to work with there. He's not a natural ball magnet like your Tom Mitchells, but he's gutsy, and he's willing to work his arse off to compete. We'll see.
He's clearly a capable footballer, but struggles to fit a particular mould in the modern game. 20 years ago he'd probably have been fine, now it's a matter of whether he can adapt to a position he probably doesn't quite naturally suit.
 

Monkey King

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That all makes sense to me.

I do get we had unparalleled riches in terms of talent. You can still screw it up though.

I think the model for everyone is the Hawks 2004 to 2008.

It's actually logical to be that a team on the path you identify would be bottoming out last year. There some unique factors though.
I’m surprised at how with such little currency, SOS was able to squeeze out 9 first round draftees from 4 drafts and an additional 5 or 6 from trades. But like you say, you can have all those picks and still screw it up.

You look at Hawthorn, or the Cats, those teams had a core group of key players who‘d played a lot of footy together. Even the Tigers team recently. Carlton were nowhere near having this a few years ago. Now at least we have some potential pieces in place, even if they are still largely an unknown quantity.

I can’t say I’ve been pleased by the onfield results to date, but like most Carlton supporters I interact with, I’ve never felt so patient with what’s happening at the club. We all want to see the club achieve sustained success, not just shoot for the next flag, and given where we started, understand the club is at the start of a long journey.
 

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Fadge

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It's actually logical to be that a team on the path you identify would be bottoming out last year.
Does that mean Hannibal was correct in saying 'the rebuild is going exactly to plan', despite the other Carlton poster being highly offended and asking him never to respond to his posts again?
 
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Does that mean Hannibal was correct in saying 'the rebuild is going exactly to plan', despite the other Carlton poster being highly offended and asking him never to respond to his posts again?
You tell us Fadge, you "liked" the post so obviously had formed an opinion of the posts intent.

Was it.

A/ A constructive post with a valid point of view / argument
B/ A sarcastic post to point score with the the band of boring shit stirrers in this thread

You cant have it both ways.
 

Hannabal

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Am I right in saying Carlton's new build started in earnest with the Weitering 2015 draft ? That puts it two years behind Melbourne's of 2013 when Roos was appointed in the October. Roos was instrumental in the trading period that year convincing Bernie Vince to come and trading pick 2 for Tyson and Pick 9 (Salem).

Melbourne 2014 playing list:

Primary list
1. Bail, Rohan
2. Barry, Dominic
3. Blease, Sam
4. Byrnes, Shannon
5. Clark, Mitch
6. Clisby, Mitch
7. Cross, Daniel
8. Dawes, Chris
9. Dunn, Lynden
10. Evans, Michael
11. Fitzpatrick, Jack
12. Frawley, James
13. Garland, Colin
14. Gawn, Max
15. Grimes, Jack
16. Hogan, Jesse
17. Howe, Jeremy
18. Hunt, Jayden
19. Jamar, Mark
20. Jones, Matt
21. Jones, Nathan
22. Kennedy-Harris, Jay

23. Kent, Dean
24. McDonald, Tom
25. McKenzie, Jordie
26. Michie, Viv
27. Nicholson, Daniel
28. Pedersen, Cameron
29. Riley, Aidan
30. Salem, Christian
31. Spencer, Jake
32. Strauss, James
33. Tapscott, Luke
34. Terlich, Dean
35. Toumpas, Jimmy
36. Trengove, Jack
37. Tyson, Dom
38. Vince, Bernie
39. Viney, Jack
40. Watts, Jack
Rookie list
41. Georgiou, Alex
42. Harmes, James
43. Jetta, Neville

44. King, Max

I've put in bold the players remaining on the list in 2019.

There's only 9 players remaining from the list of 44 and out of those 9 seven are probably best 22 with Hunt and Kennedy-Harris close.

We've just finished year 5 of our build model having ended the season top 4. Supposedly, Carlton have just completed year three and had their worst year in VFL/AFL history.

I'm glad Carlton fans have "never been more patient".
 

Fadge

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You tell us Fadge, you "liked" the post so obviously had formed an opinion of the posts intent.

Was it.

A/ A constructive post with a valid point of view / argument
B/ A sarcastic post to point score with the the band of boring shit stirrers in this thread

You cant have it both ways.
What about:

Option C/ A witty post that resonated with the raft of posters that aren't overly positive about the direction in which Carlton are heading.

Why do you guys always have to be so serious?
 
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Am I right in saying Carlton's new build started in earnest with the Weitering 2015 draft ? That puts it two years behind Melbourne's of 2013 when Roos was appointed in the October. Roos was instrumental in the trading period that year convincing Bernie Vince to come and trading pick 2 for Tyson and Pick 9 (Salem).

Melbourne 2014 playing list:

Primary list
1. Bail, Rohan
2. Barry, Dominic
3. Blease, Sam
4. Byrnes, Shannon
5. Clark, Mitch
6. Clisby, Mitch
7. Cross, Daniel
8. Dawes, Chris
9. Dunn, Lynden
10. Evans, Michael
11. Fitzpatrick, Jack
12. Frawley, James
13. Garland, Colin
14. Gawn, Max
15. Grimes, Jack
16. Hogan, Jesse
17. Howe, Jeremy
18. Hunt, Jayden
19. Jamar, Mark
20. Jones, Matt
21. Jones, Nathan
22. Kennedy-Harris, Jay

23. Kent, Dean
24. McDonald, Tom
25. McKenzie, Jordie
26. Michie, Viv
27. Nicholson, Daniel
28. Pedersen, Cameron
29. Riley, Aidan
30. Salem, Christian
31. Spencer, Jake
32. Strauss, James
33. Tapscott, Luke
34. Terlich, Dean
35. Toumpas, Jimmy
36. Trengove, Jack
37. Tyson, Dom
38. Vince, Bernie
39. Viney, Jack
40. Watts, Jack
Rookie list
41. Georgiou, Alex
42. Harmes, James
43. Jetta, Neville

44. King, Max

I've put in bold the players remaining on the list in 2019.

There's only 9 players remaining from the list of 44 and out of those 9 seven are probably best 22 with Hunt and Kennedy-Harris close.

We've just finished year 5 of our build model having ended the season top 4. Supposedly, Carlton have just completed year three and had their worst year in VFL/AFL history.

I'm glad Carlton fans have "never been more patient".
Carlton think they are more advanced in the rebuild.

Otherwise the Stocker-Adelaide deal would have probable not eventuated
 

owen87

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Am I right in saying Carlton's new build started in earnest with the Weitering 2015 draft ? That puts it two years behind Melbourne's of 2013 when Roos was appointed in the October. Roos was instrumental in the trading period that year convincing Bernie Vince to come and trading pick 2 for Tyson and Pick 9 (Salem).

Melbourne 2014 playing list:

Primary list
1. Bail, Rohan
2. Barry, Dominic
3. Blease, Sam
4. Byrnes, Shannon
5. Clark, Mitch
6. Clisby, Mitch
7. Cross, Daniel
8. Dawes, Chris
9. Dunn, Lynden
10. Evans, Michael
11. Fitzpatrick, Jack
12. Frawley, James
13. Garland, Colin
14. Gawn, Max
15. Grimes, Jack
16. Hogan, Jesse
17. Howe, Jeremy
18. Hunt, Jayden
19. Jamar, Mark
20. Jones, Matt
21. Jones, Nathan
22. Kennedy-Harris, Jay

23. Kent, Dean
24. McDonald, Tom
25. McKenzie, Jordie
26. Michie, Viv
27. Nicholson, Daniel
28. Pedersen, Cameron
29. Riley, Aidan
30. Salem, Christian
31. Spencer, Jake
32. Strauss, James
33. Tapscott, Luke
34. Terlich, Dean
35. Toumpas, Jimmy
36. Trengove, Jack
37. Tyson, Dom
38. Vince, Bernie
39. Viney, Jack
40. Watts, Jack
Rookie list
41. Georgiou, Alex
42. Harmes, James
43. Jetta, Neville

44. King, Max

I've put in bold the players remaining on the list in 2019.

There's only 9 players remaining from the list of 44 and out of those 9 seven are probably best 22 with Hunt and Kennedy-Harris close.

We've just finished year 5 of our build model having ended the season top 4. Supposedly, Carlton have just completed year three and had their worst year in VFL/AFL history.

I'm glad Carlton fans have "never been more patient".
You neglect to mention that Hogan, Gawn, and T McDonald are all KPPs which tend to take longer to develop, and that Melbourne had some 'luck' that Oliver came good so quickly.

Melbourne under Roos did a fantastic job of clearing house to strip the list of the cloggers and stock up with quality players, adding players to fill roles like Melksham, Hibberd, Lever via trade, and guys like Fritsch and Spargo as ready to go role players in the last couple of drafts.

I don't think anyone would argue Melbourne hasn't done a great job of drafting and developing their list. But I can see why Carlton supporters have reason for optimism even given the abysmal performance in 2018.

I can easily see Carlton making the leap quickly from where it was in 2018 to pushing the 8 in 2020 / 2021. A fit list (Andrew Russell) and another couple of years in to Dow, SPS, Walsh and co should see them much more competitive. Cripps is a beast to build a midfield around.
 
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I can easily see Carlton making the leap quickly from where it was in 2018 to pushing the 8 in 2020 / 2021. A fit list (Andrew Russell) and another couple of years in to Dow, SPS, Walsh and co should see them much more competitive. Cripps is a beast to build a midfield around.
Not only do they have to go past Brisbane; they also have to leapfrog North, Port, Essendon, Crows, Dogs, Freo to achieve that. Very possible with their plethora of young talent but those clubs will be looking to build too
 

Leeda

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By the same token...




Look, I don't actually disagree with you here. What I will say, though, is that both Carlton supporters and opposition supporters could do better in their efforts to interact civilly.
you are really trying too hard... kist lunch money... and there you go...
 

sosos

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Carlton’s biggest mistake was shafting Ratten for Malthouse which must go down as one of the biggest cockups in recent history as far as coaching appointments go.
Darkest hour before the dawn? Perhaps Carlton would not have finally had the courage to strip it back and embrace the draft if they didn't hit the depths of that period.

It's pretty incredible really.

Bolton has taken Carlton to 7 wins, 6 wins, and 2 wins.

They haven't reached 100 points in a game in 55 matches and just had their worst season in VFL/AFL history. Yet Carlton supporters seem happy to a man. And you rarely hear a bad word about Bolton from them.

Long may he continue at Carlton. And let the joy of their fans wash over him.
Definitely playing the long game. First time in generations Carlton are building patiently. Most supporters are loving the process, albeit the losses are very hard to take. There are plenty of doubters on Bolton. We're backing him at the moment, but a 2 win season and a reasonable run with injuries would see the pressure come.

IMO SOS is trying to save face by proving these kids weren’t actually busts that he got to GWS. Maybe he is to stubborn to admit they aren’t up to it. Like I said he has brought over 10 to Carlton and I’d say 1 (marchbank) would get a game for a top team.

Nothing wrong with accumulating talent which any club can do with high draft picks but bringing 10+ gws rejects and guys like bugg, Fasolo is questionable.
That's a ridiculous premise. That he is happy to pick players he knows aren't good enough, just to prove a mythical point? The point a lot of people forget is that a lot of the GWS players were part of salary dump deals, allowing us to make TPP, and get some potentially good players cheaply. No-one's crying over the high turnover - that's just part of the process we've signed up for.
 

Hannabal

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You neglect to mention that Hogan, Gawn, and T McDonald are all KPPs which tend to take longer to develop, and that Melbourne had some 'luck' that Oliver came good so quickly.

Melbourne under Roos did a fantastic job of clearing house to strip the list of the cloggers and stock up with quality players, adding players to fill roles like Melksham, Hibberd, Lever via trade, and guys like Fritsch and Spargo as ready to go role players in the last couple of drafts.

I don't think anyone would argue Melbourne hasn't done a great job of drafting and developing their list. But I can see why Carlton supporters have reason for optimism even given the abysmal performance in 2018.

I can easily see Carlton making the leap quickly from where it was in 2018 to pushing the 8 in 2020 / 2021. A fit list (Andrew Russell) and another couple of years in to Dow, SPS, Walsh and co should see them much more competitive. Cripps is a beast to build a midfield around.
It was a synopsis, not a critique, so there was no "failure to mention" anybody. There wasn't intended to be a 'dialed in' player evaluation.

You definitely need some luck. We had two picks in the top 5 of the 2003 draft and netted Sylvia and McLean. It's one of the worst drafts I've seen. There was no Roughead or Franklin in that draft. That said, we couldn't develop players particularly well anyway.

Most of our Carlton equivalent draftees have either excelled or shown significant promise, plus we were able to bring in senior players like Cross (culturally huge), Vince (B&F), Melksham, Hibberd (AA), Lewis, Lever, and now May, Kolodjasnij and pick 27 from the Hogan deal. And as you say, we had Tom McDonald (76 goals in 31 games as a key forward), Gawn (AA x 2), and Viney (captain) waiting in the wings.

Who are Carlton's equivalent of Vince, Cross, Lewis, Lever, Hibberd, Melksham, and May from other clubs ?

You're dreaming if you think Carlton will play finals in 2020. Even 2021 would be a huge achievement. More likely 2023-2024.
 
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Darkest hour before the dawn? Perhaps Carlton would not have finally had the courage to strip it back and embrace the draft if they didn't hit the depths of that period.



Definitely playing the long game. First time in generations Carlton are building patiently. Most supporters are loving the process, albeit the losses are very hard to take. There are plenty of doubters on Bolton. We're backing him at the moment, but a 2 win season and a reasonable run with injuries would see the pressure come.
.
it would have been more patient to not trade the first round draft pick
 

Fadge

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That's a ridiculous premise. That he is happy to pick players he knows aren't good enough, just to prove a mythical point? The point a lot of people forget is that a lot of the GWS players were part of salary dump deals, allowing us to make TPP, and get some potentially good players cheaply. No-one's crying over the high turnover - that's just part of the process we've signed up for.
High turnover environment, salary dump deals - what do you think this does to the morale at the club?
 
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