The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?


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sosos

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High turnover environment, salary dump deals - what do you think this does to the morale at the club?
All reports say morale is good. Except if you take heed of Rhys Palmer lol.

Also this:
http://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2019-01-06/recommitted-blues-owning-the-future

Your point is not without merit, but the plan is now to start sticking with the group they've brought in and sink or swim on it's merits. They actually wanted to do that last year, but results made that impossible.
 

owen87

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Not only do they have to go past Brisbane; they also have to leapfrog North, Port, Essendon, Crows, Dogs, Freo to achieve that. Very possible with their plethora of young talent but those clubs will be looking to build too
You're dreaming if you think Carlton will play finals in 2020. Even 2021 would be a huge achievement. More likely 2023-2024.
I didn’t say they’d play finals, I said push the 8. Much like how we had 12 teams this year within a game of making the 8, I think that trend will hold, and likely flatten as Carlton and Gold Coast sort themselves out.
 

Fadge

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Vince = Kerridge
Cross = Smedts
Lewis = Palmer
Lever = McGovern
Hibberd = Mullet
Melksham = O’Shea
May = Lobbe
Most of the Carlton trades you have mentioned (apart from McGovern) are / were salary dumps or short term stop gaps who weren't expected to play AFL.

Surely you could have listed some trades that will be there for the longer term and are proven at AFL level?
 

Gethelred

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High turnover environment, salary dump deals - what do you think this does to the morale at the club?
An honest one?

It really depends on how you do it. If it's old boys club style, featuring the coaching/development playing favorites and not communicating with those on the outer, then it definitely wouldn't be good for the club in any way. That doesn't marry with what's being said from the inside of the club though, either in their press releases - which, granted, would hardly say anything negative, anyway - or through unofficial channels, both of which are fairly matching in stating how everyone is on the same page, and that everyone will have opportunity to become a part of the future of the club.

It's actually refreshing, too, how little we're really leaking these days. We used to leak like crazy - we knew, for example, who Carlton would take in the 2014 draft a week or so out - where now we don't hear very much at all. What we do hear is different in that it is brutally honest; this is not where we accept we should be, but we will deal with the hand we are dealt and we will improve ourselves, by hook or by crook.
 

ParapMarkets

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Am I right in saying Carlton's new build started in earnest with the Weitering 2015 draft ? That puts it two years behind Melbourne's of 2013 when Roos was appointed in the October. Roos was instrumental in the trading period that year convincing Bernie Vince to come and trading pick 2 for Tyson and Pick 9 (Salem).

Melbourne 2014 playing list:

Primary list
1. Bail, Rohan
2. Barry, Dominic
3. Blease, Sam
4. Byrnes, Shannon
5. Clark, Mitch
6. Clisby, Mitch
7. Cross, Daniel
8. Dawes, Chris
9. Dunn, Lynden
10. Evans, Michael
11. Fitzpatrick, Jack
12. Frawley, James
13. Garland, Colin
14. Gawn, Max
15. Grimes, Jack
16. Hogan, Jesse
17. Howe, Jeremy
18. Hunt, Jayden
19. Jamar, Mark
20. Jones, Matt
21. Jones, Nathan
22. Kennedy-Harris, Jay

23. Kent, Dean
24. McDonald, Tom
25. McKenzie, Jordie
26. Michie, Viv
27. Nicholson, Daniel
28. Pedersen, Cameron
29. Riley, Aidan
30. Salem, Christian
31. Spencer, Jake
32. Strauss, James
33. Tapscott, Luke
34. Terlich, Dean
35. Toumpas, Jimmy
36. Trengove, Jack
37. Tyson, Dom
38. Vince, Bernie
39. Viney, Jack
40. Watts, Jack
Rookie list
41. Georgiou, Alex
42. Harmes, James
43. Jetta, Neville

44. King, Max

I've put in bold the players remaining on the list in 2019.

There's only 9 players remaining from the list of 44 and out of those 9 seven are probably best 22 with Hunt and Kennedy-Harris close.

We've just finished year 5 of our build model having ended the season top 4. Supposedly, Carlton have just completed year three and had their worst year in VFL/AFL history.

I'm glad Carlton fans have "never been more patient".
That list is a lot better starting point than where Carlton were at, especially with Gawn, McDonald, Viney, and Jetta. Hogan was very useful in the rebuild and Frawley gifted you pick 2. You say that the rebuild started in 2014 but it’s worth noting that Melbourne were at the bottom of the ladder the 7 years prior to that whereas Carlton played finals in 3 of the 5 years prior to 2015. The relevance of that is that you had already been trying to accumulate young talent prior to to the rebuild start date you mention (and indeed had some) whereas Carlton weren’t.

Melbourne were in a better position to start pulling the trigger on trades and giving up draft picks much earlier than Carlton if you are using 2014 as a rebuild start date. Personally, I think Melbourne’s rebuild start date is 2007 but you just started to do things more effectively closer to 2014.

Melbourne have made some very good trades since then. I was doubtful on the 2 Essendon players you traded for (although I did rate Hibberd a bit), but they have both been very good. We definitely need to start getting some good trades like that.
 

Monkey King

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Most of the Carlton trades you have mentioned (apart from McGovern) are / were salary dumps or short term stop gaps who weren't expected to play AFL.

Surely you could have listed some trades that will be there for the longer term and are proven at AFL level?
Thanks for being impartial enough to point out the silliness of that post.

Not sure why people are demanding Carlton to follow Mebourne’s blueprint, or why they’d be considered to be at the same stage of list build. May? Lever? Kolodjashnij? These guys were costly acquisitions made in the last two years, after the draft pieces were all in place. Carlton simply haven’t reached the stage yet to afford spending top 10 picks on trades, but I’m sure they’d love to be adding this type of quality in the coming couple of years.

What Carlton have traded for thus far is cheaper options, like Marchbank, Plowman, McGovern, Setterfield, Kennedy, formerly Docherty, from trades. It’s not a horrendous group and the job’s still far from over.
 

RAPPA

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High turnover environment, salary dump deals - what do you think this does to the morale at the club?
Morale levels would be fairly contingent on transparency and communication. The “rebuild”, the glaring failures of previous drafts and the salary dump deals are by no means hush-hush. To the extent there’s transparency and communication amongst players and officials about those matters which I expect there to be given the supporters have been made well aware of it, then it would have no bearing on the playing group. The more glaring issue will be if in the next 2-3 years Carlton’s younger crop start wanting out.
 

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Thetrader15

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Silvagni reminds me of smoother Crocker from us.

That third tall flanker type forward, who doesn’t have any real stand out tricks at AFL level, just a nice player...but unfortunately neither finds the ball enough.

Not being aware of either contract situation, but would imagine if Crocker doesnt have a big 2019 he will be finished at Collingwood.

And Silvagni now also competing with McGovern and Fasolo which IMO will make it harder for him.
"Silvagni reminds me of smoother Crocker from us"

As in Barry?
 

Thetrader15

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Morale levels would be fairly contingent on transparency and communication. The “rebuild”, the glaring failures of previous drafts and the salary dump deals are by no means hush-hush. To the extent there’s transparency and communication amongst players and officials about those matters which I expect there to be given the supporters have been made well aware of it, then it would have no bearing on the playing group. The more glaring issue will be if in the next 2-3 years Carlton’s younger crop start wanting out.
Regardless of the open communication, if you're on the list and told Matt Lobbe is on 500k a year and you are a kid on 150 who plays as many games...morale is down!
 

10571z

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Darkest hour before the dawn? Perhaps Carlton would not have finally had the courage to strip it back and embrace the draft if they didn't hit the depths of that period.



Definitely playing the long game. First time in generations Carlton are building patiently. Most supporters are loving the process, albeit the losses are very hard to take. There are plenty of doubters on Bolton. We're backing him at the moment, but a 2 win season and a reasonable run with injuries would see the pressure come.


That's a ridiculous premise. That he is happy to pick players he knows aren't good enough, just to prove a mythical point? The point a lot of people forget is that a lot of the GWS players were part of salary dump deals, allowing us to make TPP, and get some potentially good players cheaply. No-one's crying over the high turnover - that's just part of the process we've signed up for.
What players did you get “cheaply” due to these salary dumps?

Pies landed Treloar, adams and WHE from GWS without these salary dumps.

Again I’d say out of the dozen or so gws players maybe 1 in Marchbank would be getting a game at the Eagles if that.
 

LoungeLizard

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Thanks for being impartial enough to point out the silliness of that post.

Not sure why people are demanding Carlton to follow Mebourne’s blueprint, or why they’d be considered to be at the same stage of list build. May? Lever? Kolodjashnij? These guys were costly acquisitions made in the last two years, after the draft pieces were all in place. Carlton simply haven’t reached the stage yet to afford spending top 10 picks on trades, but I’m sure they’d love to be adding this type of quality in the coming couple of years.

What Carlton have traded for thus far is cheaper options, like Marchbank, Plowman, McGovern, Setterfield, Kennedy, formerly Docherty, from trades. It’s not a horrendous group and the job’s still far from over.
Hang on a sec, if you aren't yet at that stage, what was trying to get Shiel about?
 

ManOfClay

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From reports the morale is higher at the club than it has been in years.

This is really hard to know for sure.

Do you think Carlton or any other club would put up articles and videos on their site saying everyone is flat?

Do you think when questioned an AFL player would say everything sucks and the players are hating life?
 
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It was a synopsis, not a critique, so there was no "failure to mention" anybody. There wasn't intended to be a 'dialed in' player evaluation.

You definitely need some luck. We had two picks in the top 5 of the 2003 draft and netted Sylvia and McLean. It's one of the worst drafts I've seen. There was no Roughead or Franklin in that draft. That said, we couldn't develop players particularly well anyway.

Most of our Carlton equivalent draftees have either excelled or shown significant promise, plus we were able to bring in senior players like Cross (culturally huge), Vince (B&F), Melksham, Hibberd (AA), Lewis, Lever, and now May, Kolodjasnij and pick 27 from the Hogan deal. And as you say, we had Tom McDonald (76 goals in 31 games as a key forward), Gawn (AA x 2), and Viney (captain) waiting in the wings.

Who are Carlton's equivalent of Vince, Cross, Lewis, Lever, Hibberd, Melksham, and May from other clubs ?

You're dreaming if you think Carlton will play finals in 2020. Even 2021 would be a huge achievement. More likely 2023-2024.
Just want to point out, Melbourne have achieved absolutely zero as it stands.

You posting comparisons are akin to holding Melbourne’s recent progression as some sort of blueprint to achieving a multi-premiership dynasty.

As advice, you might need to start another thread that identifies which Melbourne players may be the next Scarlett, Chapman, Enright, Mitchell, Hodge or a Roughead.

Because at this point, it would have about the same relevance.
 

RAPPA

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Regardless of the open communication, if you're on the list and told Matt Lobbe is on 500k a year and you are a kid on 150 who plays as many games...morale is down!
Only if you’re silly enough to think there is any sort of parity in players’ salaries. I guess the entire bulldogs list was low in morale in 2016 knowing Boyd’s salary.
 

RAPPA

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Just want to point out, Melbourne have achieved absolutely zero as it stands.

You posting comparisons are akin to holding Melbourne’s recent progression as some sort of blueprint to achieving a multi-premiership dynasty.

As advice, you might need to start another thread that identifies which Melbourne players may be the next Scarlett, Chapman, Enright, Mitchell, Hodge or a Roughead.

Because at this point, it would have about the same relevance.
Don’t undersell the monumental capitulation in the first half of the preliminary final. To achieve the proverbial $hitting of the bed in the way they did was some sort of an achievement.
 
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This is really hard to know for sure.

Do you think Carlton or any other club would put up articles and videos on their site saying everyone is flat?

Do you think when questioned an AFL player would say everything sucks and the players are hating life?
Exactly MOC. And that’s why I find it strange that you haven’t posted a similar reply to Fadge’s post intimating that there may be issues with morale.
Unless, of course......
 

Monkey King

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Hang on a sec, if you aren't yet at that stage, what was trying to get Shiel about?
Poor wording on my part. More accurate to say they haven’t been at that stage yet, rather than they haven’t reached it. I posted just yesterday that I think they’ve now reached it.

The focus up to now has clearly been on getting as many first round draftees as possible on to the list before the team plays game 67 of the rebuild. During this period, trading out top picks hasn’t been on the agenda, even with Shiel, Carlton’s 2018 first wasn’t on the table, it was their 2019 first.
 

Hannabal

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That list is a lot better starting point than where Carlton were at, especially with Gawn, McDonald, Viney, and Jetta. Hogan was very useful in the rebuild and Frawley gifted you pick 2. You say that the rebuild started in 2014 but it’s worth noting that Melbourne were at the bottom of the ladder the 7 years prior to that whereas Carlton played finals in 3 of the 5 years prior to 2015. The relevance of that is that you had already been trying to accumulate young talent prior to to the rebuild start date you mention (and indeed had some) whereas Carlton weren’t.

Melbourne were in a better position to start pulling the trigger on trades and giving up draft picks much earlier than Carlton if you are using 2014 as a rebuild start date. Personally, I think Melbourne’s rebuild start date is 2007 but you just started to do things more effectively closer to 2014.

Melbourne have made some very good trades since then. I was doubtful on the 2 Essendon players you traded for (although I did rate Hibberd a bit), but they have both been very good. We definitely need to start getting some good trades like that.
The year before that list was added to we had a worse year than Carlton's 2018. 2 wins/54% as opposed to Carlton's 2 wins/59%. Also, Carlton had 7 x 60+ point beltings in 2018 while Melbourne had 11 x 60+ in 2013. So heading into 2014 we were coming off statistically the 5th worst year in modern history.

I'd argue, how could 9 players on a list of 44 provide "a lot better starting point" than Carlton had when Bolton arrived ?

Carlton's list in 2015 included Murphy, Gibbs (useful in the rebuild), Kreuzer, Simpson, Cripps, and Ed Curnow. And in Bolton's first year (2016) he had at his disposal a list that included Weitering, Charlie Curnow, and McKay from the 2015 draft

You're right to point out that the 2013 draft wasn't our first rebuild. We had two failed rebuilds previously which netted Tom McDonald, Gawn, and Jetta. But it's also worth noting that Gawn and Jetta were picked up as draft picks in the 30s and Tom McDonald was pick 53. None of those players were picked up at the pointy end of the draft as a result of Melbourne being hopeless. They were just stock standard picks available to any team at the time. In hindsight they were inspired draft choices. They weren't rolled gold picks netted by a club anchored to the bottom.

Btw, for all the Carlton supporters who seemingly argue their rebuild is a raging success story, how come they sacked their CEO in 2017 ? Sacking a CEO usually indicates a club that knows they've been %^&$ing things up.
 
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