The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?


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doppleganger

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Why is this the likely scenario?
Because the numbers say that.

Even top 10-20 picks, 1 in 2 will fail to reach 100 games.

And only one in six will get to that AA type level.

In the next couple of seasons Carlton will start delisting some players drafted by SOS let alone all of the VFL quality senior salary dumps he traded for.

Look at the GWS, how many of their top 10 picks have actually amounted to anything?

For every Whitfield there is an O’Rourke, every Greene there is a Pickett etc.

Carlton fans should be only banking on half of their draft picks actually making it to become 100 gamers.
 

Gethelred

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Because the numbers say that.

Even top 10-20 picks, 1 in 2 will fail to reach 100 games.

And only one in six will get to that AA type level.

In the next couple of seasons Carlton will start delisting some players drafted by SOS let alone all of the VFL quality senior salary dumps he traded for.

Look at the GWS, how many of their top 10 picks have actually amounted to anything?

For every Whitfield there is an O’Rourke, every Greene there is a Pickett etc.

Carlton fans should be only banking on half of their draft picks actually making it to become 100 gamers.
Bear in mind, the attitude from your post suggested that they all are busts, rather than half of them.

Also, that figure includes every single draft, ignoring the fact that drafting in the AFL has improved steadily every single year it's been run, and that includes the prejudiced drafts between 2009-2014. It's probably more a question for the drafts board, but if you confine those statistics into 5 year segments, do the statistics change for the better/worse?

I'm not quite so parochial as to believe that all of our draftees will come on to the extent that I may hope, but I'm quietly confident more than half will become better than average footballers. But then, I've no doubt some Melbourne supporters were the same way, too. We'll see, I guess.
 

10571z

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...

You are aware a club must make minimum TPP, correct? Again, how do you suggest we make the TPP floor without aggressively overpaying our players on potential?
So thats why all the blokes from GWS were brought in?

Mark Whiley, Kristian Jaksch, Liam Sumner, Rhys Palmer, Andrew Phillips, Jed Lamb, Lachie Plowman, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Matthew Kennedy, Setterfield.

Again maybe 1/2 of them would be getting a game at the current Premier. Add the other guys SOS has brought in Bugg, Fasolo ect and im sure well be looking back at this period the same as the previous one

You can pay 95% of the salary cap. Its not that hard. You can front load contracts or bring in quality free agents.
 
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Masqualero

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Who is the best draft pick SOS has taken?

Lets hope whoever was in charge of picking Curnow and Cripps rated this kid there.
Lol, I think it's pretty clear to all the in the know posters that Stocker is at least the 6th best player in the draft.

Getting him for pick 19 was like shelling peas for SOS.
 

Gethelred

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So thats why all the blokes from GWS were brought in?

Mark Whiley, Kristian Jaksch, Liam Sumner, Rhys Palmer, Andrew Phillips, Jed Lamb, Lachie Plowman, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Matthew Kennedy, Setterfield.

Again maybe 1/2 of them would be getting a game at the current Premier. Add the other guys SOS has brought in Bugg, Fasolo ect and im sure well be looking back at this period the same as the previous one
Firstly, Jaksch and Whiley were done by the previous regime under Malthouse (as part of the deal which lead to us taking Boekhurst), you'll get no arguments there that that was poor. Sumner, Phillips, Pickett were all part of what I'm talking about; they were extremely cheap, they were former first round picks and/or a project ruckman, and when you make 43 list changes in 3 years you need to find a way to get in more players to maximise your chances. Palmer, Lamb were both salary dumps; Lamb became a fruitful member of our 22 for the last three years, where Palmer was let go after a year.

The others were the 'point' of most of the trades they were involved in. Marchbank, Plowman, Kennedy and Setterfield are all extremely talented, and the first three have shown a certain amount at AFL level in the past (less so Kennedy, but injuries will do that to you).

Bugg's been a part of a much stronger Melbourne 22 for the better part of 3-4 years; under what pretext do you suggest that he won't be getting a game or making a contribution? Fasolo's issues are mental; he's had problems with depression, but at his best he's AFL quality and he's hardly a wasted pick. Newman is a 25 year old midfielder that averages just a click under what Shaun Grigg averaged when he was traded to Richmond; you saying that's a poor idea?

Ultimately, when you spend your entire time looking for holes, it's all you'll ever see.

You can pay 95% of the salary cap. Its not that hard. You can front load contracts or bring in quality free agents.
I've said this before, and it's getting rather tiring.

You cannot bring in quality free agents to a bottom ladder club without paying outrageous overs!!!

If we did that, we'd be compromising our salary cap, not immediately but in 4-5 years time, after some of our kids start to demonstrate their potential and put it on the park. If we paid outrageous overs to kids early in their contracts, that's what they come to accept, money for potential; imagine what they'd ask for - or, at least, their agents would ask for - if you paid them such outrageous overs early when they're not performing, after they've started.

That's the route to a stuffed TPP.

Instead of just lazily criticising the trades with 'Oh, Carlolton r GWS secondz', you have to either a) attack the notion that the players in house at the time the trades were made needed to be delisted, or you need to b) offer an alternative means of getting x amount of players in the door, or c) offer a third path I haven't seen. Most of the time in here, you've been unwilling to put in adequate work to demonstrate your view has any bearing whatsoever in reality, so forgive me if I won't hold my breath.
 

Monkey King

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Carlton fans should be only banking on half of their draft picks actually making it to become 100 gamers.
Nah. I’d prefer to bank on most of Carlton’s draftees falling in the half that do make it. I mean that’s what the numbers say is totally possible to achieve, so why bank on being average? Thanks for the advice, but it sounds more like something an opposition supporter should be banking on to me.
 

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Hannabal

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Bugg's been a part of a much stronger Melbourne 22 for the better part of 3-4 years; under what pretext do you suggest that he won't be getting a game or making a contribution?
Bugg is interesting. I was speaking to a senior Melbourne coaching member post season and he said they delisted Bugg because of his contest work. For what Melbourne are building they thought he was too soft in contested situations. He was told and always gave the right answers about improving that aspect of his game, but never did.

Carlton will have different parameters that might suit him better. So when you watch him in JLT etc. look out for him in the contest.
 

LoungeLizard

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Firstly, Jaksch and Whiley were done by the previous regime under Malthouse (as part of the deal which lead to us taking Boekhurst), you'll get no arguments there that that was poor. Sumner, Phillips, Pickett were all part of what I'm talking about; they were extremely cheap, they were former first round picks and/or a project ruckman, and when you make 43 list changes in 3 years you need to find a way to get in more players to maximise your chances. Palmer, Lamb were both salary dumps; Lamb became a fruitful member of our 22 for the last three years, where Palmer was let go after a year.

The others were the 'point' of most of the trades they were involved in. Marchbank, Plowman, Kennedy and Setterfield are all extremely talented, and the first three have shown a certain amount at AFL level in the past (less so Kennedy, but injuries will do that to you).

Bugg's been a part of a much stronger Melbourne 22 for the better part of 3-4 years; under what pretext do you suggest that he won't be getting a game or making a contribution? Fasolo's issues are mental; he's had problems with depression, but at his best he's AFL quality and he's hardly a wasted pick. Newman is a 25 year old midfielder that averages just a click under what Shaun Grigg averaged when he was traded to Richmond; you saying that's a poor idea?

Ultimately, when you spend your entire time looking for holes, it's all you'll ever see.


I've said this before, and it's getting rather tiring.

You cannot bring in quality free agents to a bottom ladder club without paying outrageous overs!!!

If we did that, we'd be compromising our salary cap, not immediately but in 4-5 years time, after some of our kids start to demonstrate their potential and put it on the park. If we paid outrageous overs to kids early in their contracts, that's what they come to accept, money for potential; imagine what they'd ask for - or, at least, their agents would ask for - if you paid them such outrageous overs early when they're not performing, after they've started.

That's the route to a stuffed TPP.

Instead of just lazily criticising the trades with 'Oh, Carlolton r GWS secondz', you have to either a) attack the notion that the players in house at the time the trades were made needed to be delisted, or you need to b) offer an alternative means of getting x amount of players in the door, or c) offer a third path I haven't seen. Most of the time in here, you've been unwilling to put in adequate work to demonstrate your view has any bearing whatsoever in reality, so forgive me if I won't hold my breath.
For a start this comment works both ways:"Ultimately, when you spend your entire time looking for holes, it's all you'll ever see"
If keep thinking there are no holes, eventually you will fall in one.

Now for the stuffed TPP.
If you don't hurry up and bring quality players into your team, the wages will clash, for me, i think you have already waited too long.
 

Gethelred

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For a start this comment works both ways:"Ultimately, when you spend your entire time looking for holes, it's all you'll ever see"
If keep thinking there are no holes, eventually you will fall in one.

Now for the stuffed TPP.
If you don't hurry up and bring quality players into your team, the wages will clash, for me, i think you have already waited too long.
Yes it does, I wondered if someone would follow that metaphor! :)

It's a quandry; get in quality early to start winning/jumpstart development (because it's easier to develop when you're winning) but have to trade some now developed talented players out because you cannot afford to pay them what they're now worth, or to avoid doing that but risk your rebuild stalling?

I suppose what we wanted - and have approached every single one that's come onto the market - is top tier midfield talent; we've approached Kelly, Mitchell, Prestia, Jaeger, Rockliff, Smith, and Shiel, but we haven't been able to land any of them. What's the common link between where each of them went? Each of them fair better immediately on the ladder; I'm not going to use the nearly useless 'premiership window' analogy, nor the 'contender' or 'destination club' analogy. Players move for all kinds of reasons, and most of the time if they try to move to a team in contention they frequently get it wrong; see Treloar and Goddard for details.

We also were only willing to pay to a certain point, clearly.

If it were me, I'd have offered more money to Smith and Prestia, ignored Rockliff and Mitchell, thrown the world at Kelly, and done more or less the same as what we did with Shiel. Smith and Prestia are both still young enough to build with the team, good enough and complete enough to become pivotal mids (while both are inside players, both are better than average when working outside the stoppage as well). Rockliff and Mitchell are both prolific, but both would've been suuuuper expensive, Rockliff has (historically) put people severely offside with his attitude and his abrasiveness, where while Mitchell is good I don't know that he'd be quite right. Overwhelming statistical dominance is good, right up until that player has a cold; we'll see this year how Hawthorn fair, after being propped up by him. And if you're wondering in the wake of that if I'm concerned about our overreliance on Cripps, absolutely I am.

Kelly is a different fish. He's a matchwinner, and he's good enough to drag a team with him; he's the difference in home and away and on grand final day. You pay for that kind of talent and person. Shiel is very, very good - to make the case for him to Carlton to any set of recruiters, simply submit his goal assists and inside 50 stats, he's made a career of kicking to leading/marking forwards - but ultimately he's not quite at that level. He's not the matchwinner, he's an elite accumulator with deft skills by foot. We reputedly went hard, just Essendon went harder, and he went to the contender.

Next season, though, is a different thing. If we go well - and given our trading of our first round pick to Adelaide for theirs - then I can see us going harder than we've ever gone at someone, whether Kelly, Coniglio, Greene, one of the talented Sydney mids (Heeney, Mills), GC's Will Brodie, Cerra (Fremantle), Mitch Duncan to radically improve the team going into 2020; if we go poorly, we'd need to seek some improvement via trades. I'd also be looking to get an equivalent to the Hodge/Gia/Stevie J role to play in the ones (one of the suggestions during last season was Mark Lecras) and another grunt midfielder to complement the set.

It's something to think about, I suppose.
 

doppleganger

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Also, that figure includes every single draft, ignoring the fact that drafting in the AFL has improved steadily every single year it's been run, and that includes the prejudiced drafts between 2009-2014. It's probably more a question for the drafts board, but if you confine those statistics into 5 year segments, do the statistics change for the better/worse?
The drafts that have produced the most games of footy have been 1999 and 2001. This wasn’t because recruiters were better back then, the players coming through were.

AFL average career is what 5 years, it is just a conveyor belt. Things haven’t changed that much since the late 90s.

Picking early gives a better shot at a star, and the numbers show that expected games and quality of them is higher for top couple of picks. But once out of top five not much difference through the top 20.

Not all picks come off, there are still top 10 busts, and you can still find a gem in the rookie draft.

And the overall output (in terms of games being played) of drafts remains the same...just need to be the side that gets it right more often than other clubs.

Some teams who supposedly nailed drafts to build premiership teams
Geelong In 99
They had 4 top 25 picks and took
Joel Corey, David Spriggs, Ezra Bray and Daniel Foster - yuck 3 poor picks.

Luckily for Geelong they picked up Chapman, Ling and Enright with later picks.

Hawks followed their 3 top 10 picks of 2005 with 2006 seeing them have five top 20 picks and came out with - X.Ellis, Dowler, Birchall, Bailey and Muston - only one played more than 100 games for the Hawks.

When did clubs start getting it right?

Richmond 2014 draft another good example - Tigers took C.Ellis, Menadue and Drummond with first three picks of national draft, no impact from any of them really. But they picked up Castagna, Lambert and Short in the rookie draft...all three already over 50 games and having a big impact on the Tigers.
Having a glut of early picks is no guarantee of success...the good teams have always used late picks well and been canny traders.

All clubs think they have drafted studs, it is all about potential, a positive future and hope. a supporter likes the shiny new toy as you are yet to be aware of their flaws, hence people drastically over-rate draft picks and their value.

Going absolutely all in on drafts and disregarding quality senior talent isn’t a proven recipe for success. Geelong still had plenty of quality on their list, as did Hawthorn.

Bottoming our for a year or two and bouncing straight back up again is what teams like Hawthorn, West Coast and Collingwood have done. Feeling and Sydney have never really bottomed out.

Richmond and Melbourne didn’t get there shit together until they actually started nailing trades and adding quality senior players.
 

10571z

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Firstly, Jaksch and Whiley were done by the previous regime under Malthouse (as part of the deal which lead to us taking Boekhurst), you'll get no arguments there that that was poor. Sumner, Phillips, Pickett were all part of what I'm talking about; they were extremely cheap, they were former first round picks and/or a project ruckman, and when you make 43 list changes in 3 years you need to find a way to get in more players to maximise your chances. Palmer, Lamb were both salary dumps; Lamb became a fruitful member of our 22 for the last three years, where Palmer was let go after a year.

The others were the 'point' of most of the trades they were involved in. Marchbank, Plowman, Kennedy and Setterfield are all extremely talented, and the first three have shown a certain amount at AFL level in the past (less so Kennedy, but injuries will do that to you).

Bugg's been a part of a much stronger Melbourne 22 for the better part of 3-4 years; under what pretext do you suggest that he won't be getting a game or making a contribution? Fasolo's issues are mental; he's had problems with depression, but at his best he's AFL quality and he's hardly a wasted pick. Newman is a 25 year old midfielder that averages just a click under what Shaun Grigg averaged when he was traded to Richmond; you saying that's a poor idea?

Ultimately, when you spend your entire time looking for holes, it's all you'll ever see.


I've said this before, and it's getting rather tiring.

You cannot bring in quality free agents to a bottom ladder club without paying outrageous overs!!!

If we did that, we'd be compromising our salary cap, not immediately but in 4-5 years time, after some of our kids start to demonstrate their potential and put it on the park. If we paid outrageous overs to kids early in their contracts, that's what they come to accept, money for potential; imagine what they'd ask for - or, at least, their agents would ask for - if you paid them such outrageous overs early when they're not performing, after they've started.

That's the route to a stuffed TPP.

Instead of just lazily criticising the trades with 'Oh, Carlolton r GWS secondz', you have to either a) attack the notion that the players in house at the time the trades were made needed to be delisted, or you need to b) offer an alternative means of getting x amount of players in the door, or c) offer a third path I haven't seen. Most of the time in here, you've been unwilling to put in adequate work to demonstrate your view has any bearing whatsoever in reality, so forgive me if I won't hold my breath.
My view is simple. You wont get anywhere bringing substandard players into a club over and over regardless of the reasoning.

Again "extremely cheap" is stated. But that means nothing. You still traded them in and wasted a list spot.

"He is an upgrade on ...." This has been said about Fasolo for example but he isn't going to take your club anywhere. He may be an upgraded on a barely AFL standard player but having a small upgrade wont take you to finals.

Smedts, Fasolo, Bugg, Kerridge, Lang, Sumner, Plamer, Phillips, Lamb ect are the players SOS is bringing in. Are you surprised with names like that you've gone backwards over and over and had the worst season ever.

You build through the draft and hand pick talent as needed.
 

Gethelred

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My view is simple. You wont get anywhere bringing substandard players into a club over and over regardless of the reasoning.

Again "extremely cheap" is stated. But that means nothing. You still traded them in and wasted a list spot.

"He is an upgrade on ...." This has been said about Fasolo for example but he isn't going to take your club anywhere. He may be an upgraded on a barely AFL standard player but having a small upgrade wont take you to finals.

Smedts, Fasolo, Bugg, Kerridge, Lang, Sumner, Plamer, Phillips, Lamb ect are the players SOS is bringing in. Are you surprised with names like that you've gone backwards over and over and had the worst season ever.

You build through the draft and hand pick talent as needed.
Your view is excessively simple, and ignores pretty much everything said in counter.

I'd write something more in depth, but it would be wasted as you wouldn't read it anyway.
 

Fadge

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Going absolutely all in on drafts and disregarding quality senior talent isn’t a proven recipe for success.
This comment here hits the nail fair and square on the head.

For all of the high draft picks GWS have had, four of their best and indeed most important players have been Ward, Davis, Mumford and Shaw - all experienced players who had proven themselves at AFL level who have played crucial roles for their club.

I look at my own team, and one of the major factors for our improvement between 2007/8/9 and 2010 was the recruitment of Jolly and Ball. Key missing pieces to the premiership jigsaw puzzle.

McGovern is the first player of this profile that Carlton have recruited, though he does have question marks over his durability and I reckon will be a solid citizen as opposed to a game changer, and until they do this seriously any improvement will only ever be marginal and they will continue to wallow in the bottom four.
 

Gethelred

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This comment here hits the nail fair and square on the head.

For all of the high draft picks GWS have had, four of their best and indeed most important players have been Ward, Davis, Mumford and Shaw - all experienced players who had proven themselves at AFL level who have played crucial roles for their club.

I look at my own team, and one of the major factors for our improvement between 2007/8/9 and 2010 was the recruitment of Jolly and Ball. Key missing pieces to the premiership jigsaw puzzle.

McGovern is the first player of this profile that Carlton have recruited, though he does have question marks over his durability and I reckon will be a solid citizen as opposed to a game changer, and until they do this seriously any improvement will only ever be marginal and they will continue to wallow in the bottom four.
As a tangent to that, do you contribute more weight to Jolly and Ball's inclusion or Malthouse's implementation of his version of the Clarkson/Lyon press, which drove sides wide and forced them to either take their shots on goal from the boundary or to exhaust themselves trying to go through it?

Basically, was it cattle-driven or was it borne off the back of innovation?
 

Fadge

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As a tangent to that, do you contribute more weight to Jolly and Ball's inclusion or Malthouse's implementation of his version of the Clarkson/Lyon press, which drove sides wide and forced them to either take their shots on goal from the boundary or to exhaust themselves trying to go through it?

Basically, was it cattle-driven or was it borne off the back of innovation?
Reckon it was a combination of both, but this thread probably isn't the place for that conversation.
 

Gethelred

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Reckon it was a combination of both, but this thread probably isn't the place for that conversation.
See, I'd be of the argument that the analysis of any premiership team's rebuild is relevant to this thread, provided we're not bringing up examples of externally built lists with assets the rest of the competition lacked (WC in the nineties, Brisbane's threepeat).

History's what you take from it.
 

bungalow_bill

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They might not end up with the secondary kid. The blues group think is the Adelaide pick is getting traded for a older player in the mid/late20s age bracket. I found it interesting so made a post about it:

draft&trading/forum/threads/ carlton-blues-to-trade-adelaides-first-round-pick-who-do-they-target



Stocker may be a gun but he was overlooked 20 odd times before Carlton made the trade.

Is always risky for rebuilding clubs, to potentially give away Josh Kelly caliber type, pick one or two talents; Salem is very good but Melbourne would be even more dangerous on paper with Kelly alongside Viney, Oliver, Gawn and co.
I think Melbourne offered the Lions that pick 2 for Rockliff :drunk:
 

10571z

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Your view is excessively simple, and ignores pretty much everything said in counter.

I'd write something more in depth, but it would be wasted as you wouldn't read it anyway.
Yep agreed its very simple.

You can make an array of reasons why people are brought into the club to justify it. Cheap, salary dumps, former high draft picks, paying salary cap %, filling lists spots, cleaning out the list. But that really doesn't matter as it comes down to one thing, how these guys perform for the club which overall is terrible.

In -
Fasolo
Newman
Setterfield
McGovern
Keenedy
Lang
Lobbe
Smedts
Marchbank
Pickett
Palmer
Kerridge
Phillips
Gorringe
Wright
Lamb
Sumner
Plowman

That's who SOS has brought it for all different reasons and that is a huge reason you had your worst season ever.

Time will tell.
 
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