Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Bazza97]

With these two sides playing against each other next week, I thought I'd make a thread regarding the rebuild these two sides have undertaken as well as their future prospects.

Firstly I'll talk about Brisbane.

After 16 games, Brisbane have 3 wins, a percentage of 69.1, an average of 82 points scored per game and 119 conceded.

In Fagan's first year at the helm, the Lions have improved on their scoring per game from last year slightly when they averaged 80 points scored and also improved on their points conceded when they averaged 131 points conceded per game.

The Lions are also on the same amount of wins they got last year. With games against Carlton, WC, WB, GC, Melbourne and NM, I reckon Brisbane will win at least 2 more games possibly 3. This year has been an improvement on last year and a step in the right direction for the Lions and if they can get a couple more wins to end the season, they can then enter 2018 with a confidence that they can finish outside the bottom 4.

My hope for Brisbane in 2018 is to continue to tighten up defensively to ensure improved competitiveness in games, further improve their scoring, further exposure and improvement in its players under 23 years of age and to get close to 10 wins for the season in order to build on 2018 for a possible finals appearance in 2019.

Right now, I see the Lions finals window potentially opening in 2019 but more realistically 2020, which is the year I expect the Lions to make the finals with no excuses. The talented under 23 brigade the Lions have now headlined by players such as McStay, Cutler, Taylor, Andrews, Schache, Hipwood, Mathieson, Witherden, Berry and McCluggage. Beams, Rich, Zorko and Rockliff (should he stay) would also provide a solid experienced unit by the time their predicted finals window opens in the next 2-3 years. Brisbane's spine at both ends looks very promising especially with Andrews and McStay down back while Hipwood and Schache up front should prove to be a potent combination.

I'm pretty bullish on the Lions future, the Gabba might start to rock again and prove to be a bit of a cauldron for interstate teams. How far the Lions can go under Fagan will be determined in the next few years when they should become a finals outfit.

Now onto Carlton.

The Blues have 5 wins, a percentage of 82.3, an average of 73 points scored per game and 88 conceded.

This is now Bolton's second year and they have improved slightly on last years output in terms of scoring per game (71 points scored per game in 2016) and points conceded (90 points conceded per game in 2016).

Carlton have probably exceeded expectations in terms of the amount of wins they have already attained as well as their general competitiveness in most games. For the rest of the year, Carlton play Brisbane, Geelong, Essendon, WC, Hawthorn and Sydney. That is a tough fixture, but it should be a good learning experience for this developing team. They might only win 1 game for the rest of the year maybe 2 but the Blues are heading in the right direction under Bolton. The Blues will probably finish in the bottom 4 but they will learn a fair bit from this year and as they mature as a side, they should be able to win the games that hang in the balance but have let slip which has happened a few times this season.

My hope for Carlton in 2018 is to improve their scoring power, play with more risk as they start to build on their defensive foundations, further exposure and improvement to its players drafted from the last few years and like Brisbane, get close to winning 10 games and build on a positive 2018 season with a possible finals appearance in 2019.

I see Carlton's finals window as similar to Brisbane with a potential opening in 2019 but more realistically they should be a finals side in 2020. Carlton's under 23 brigade for me is headlined by Cripps, Pickett, Marchbank, J Silvagni, McKay, Weitering, C Curnow, Cuningham, Williamson, Fisher, Macreadie and SPS. Carlton's defence looks like it will be its strong point by the time this team reaches its peak with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Docherty, Macreadie and Williamson providing the Blues with a mix of intercept marking, key and hybrid defenders and rebounding power.

I feel like Carlton's defensive foundations are set, but I do have question marks in the future regarding their midfield stocks and scoring power up forward. It will be interesting to see who they recruit in the draft and trade period. Like Brisbane, Carlton have a good future ahead and should be finalists in a few years and how far they can go will be determined by the direction they go under Bolton in the next few seasons.

What I will say is that the question marks I have over Carlton's midfield stocks and scoring power in the future is the reason why I'm more confident over Brisbane's future prospects atm. My opinion could change though in the next couple of years, as a lot can happen in that timeframe. I look forward to seeing how the rebuild of these two teams evolves and how far each team can go under the current direction of Fagan and Bolton respectively.

TL;DR, feel free to discuss the rebuild of these two teams and your opinion of which team has the better future prospects atm

 

[Frank Gallagher]

Carlton are after our draft pick.

 

[CrazyJoeFevola]

Brisbane should be ahead of us, hard to tell, contingent on them convincing their younger brigade to stick around long term.

 

[Xenthor]

Brisbane I reckon. Carlton are probably better now but only because of their greater senior players. Brisbane should be in finals within the next the seasons IF they can retain their good young players

 

[demondavey]

I like your work Bazza. Solid contribution there mate.

I think if Brisbane can keep their youth together, have a better 2018, they'll be able to have currency to get a good player or two on good coin. That's when they'll start contending. 2019 they'd want to be doing what St Kilda are doing this year, and 2020 it's all about making the 8 with top 4 prospects about 2021-22. That's assuming all goes according to plan.

Carlton much the same, probably a year earlier. They'll be good next year and want to be pushing for the 8. It'll be really competitive next year. I watched them closely against us a few weeks back and they're pretty good in close.

I'd say Carlton are going to find it easier to get traction for a flag as they are a Victorian side, I don't know how long Brisbane can be non competitive for from a commercial perspective.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Brisbane have some unbelievable talent that a lot of people have never heard of.

Harris Andrews will be an All Australian next year or the year after.

 

[Power Raid]

Loving the rejuvenation of both sides and really like both clubs.

I'll back Carlton this week, for no other reason than GSoS

 

[ManOfClay]

Carlton have learned how to park the bus. Now they've got to figure out how to drive it

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Brisbane should aim for their 2nd three-peat by 2025

Anything less is a failure

 

[bungalow_bill]

With these two sides playing against each other next week, I thought I'd make a thread regarding the rebuild these two sides have undertaken as well as their future prospects.

Firstly I'll talk about Brisbane.

After 16 games, Brisbane have 3 wins, a percentage of 69.1, an average of 82 points scored per game and 119 conceded.

In Fagan's first year at the helm, the Lions have improved on their scoring per game from last year slightly when they averaged 80 points scored and also improved on their points conceded when they averaged 131 points conceded per game.

The Lions are also on the same amount of wins they got last year. With games against Carlton, WC, WB, GC, Melbourne and NM, I reckon Brisbane will win at least 2 more games possibly 3. This year has been an improvement on last year and a step in the right direction for the Lions and if they can get a couple more wins to end the season, they can then enter 2018 with a confidence that they can finish outside the bottom 4.

My hope for Brisbane in 2018 is to continue to tighten up defensively to ensure improved competitiveness in games, further improve their scoring, further exposure and improvement in its players under 23 years of age and to get close to 10 wins for the season in order to build on 2018 for a possible finals appearance in 2019.

Right now, I see the Lions finals window potentially opening in 2019 but more realistically 2020, which is the year I expect the Lions to make the finals with no excuses. The talented under 23 brigade the Lions have now headlined by players such as McStay, Cutler, Taylor, Andrews, Schache, Hipwood, Mathieson, Witherden, Berry and McCluggage. Beams, Rich, Zorko and Rockliff (should he stay) would also provide a solid experienced unit by the time their predicted finals window opens in the next 2-3 years. Brisbane's spine at both ends looks very promising especially with Andrews and McStay down back while Hipwood and Schache up front should prove to be a potent combination.

I'm pretty bullish on the Lions future, the Gabba might start to rock again and prove to be a bit of a cauldron for interstate teams. How far the Lions can go under Fagan will be determined in the next few years when they should become a finals outfit.

Now onto Carlton.

The Blues have 5 wins, a percentage of 82.3, an average of 73 points scored per game and 88 conceded.

This is now Bolton's second year and they have improved slightly on last years output in terms of scoring per game (71 points scored per game in 2016) and points conceded (90 points conceded per game in 2016).

Carlton have probably exceeded expectations in terms of the amount of wins they have already attained as well as their general competitiveness in most games. For the rest of the year, Carlton play Brisbane, Geelong, Essendon, WC, Hawthorn and Sydney. That is a tough fixture, but it should be a good learning experience for this developing team. They might only win 1 game for the rest of the year maybe 2 but the Blues are heading in the right direction under Bolton. The Blues will probably finish in the bottom 4 but they will learn a fair bit from this year and as they mature as a side, they should be able to win the games that hang in the balance but have let slip which has happened a few times this season.

My hope for Carlton in 2018 is to improve their scoring power, play with more risk as they start to build on their defensive foundations, further exposure and improvement to its players drafted from the last few years and like Brisbane, get close to winning 10 games and build on a positive 2018 season with a possible finals appearance in 2019.

I see Carlton's finals window as similar to Brisbane with a potential opening in 2019 but more realistically they should be a finals side in 2020. Carlton's under 23 brigade for me is headlined by Cripps, Pickett, Marchbank, J Silvagni, McKay, Weitering, C Curnow, Cuningham, Williamson, Fisher, Macreadie and SPS. Carlton's defence looks like it will be its strong point by the time this team reaches its peak with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Docherty, Macreadie and Williamson providing the Blues with a mix of intercept marking, key and hybrid defenders and rebounding power.

I feel like Carlton's defensive foundations are set, but I do have question marks in the future regarding their midfield stocks and scoring power up forward. It will be interesting to see who they recruit in the draft and trade period. Like Brisbane, Carlton have a good future ahead and should be finalists in a few years and how far they can go will be determined by the direction they go under Bolton in the next few seasons.

What I will say is that the question marks I have over Carlton's midfield stocks and scoring power in the future is the reason why I'm more confident over Brisbane's future prospects atm. My opinion could change though in the next couple of years, as a lot can happen in that timeframe. I look forward to seeing how the rebuild of these two teams evolves and how far each team can go under the current direction of Fagan and Bolton respectively.

TL;DR, feel free to discuss the rebuild of these two teams and your opinion of which team has the better future prospects atm

Excellent summation of the Lions future. I'd also want to include Mayes in the discussion, playing very well down back under Fagan. Drafted 2012 so he's probably more a part of the younger brigade than Beams etc.

 

[Bazza97]

Brisbane should be ahead of us, hard to tell, contingent on them convincing their younger brigade to stick around long term.

Looking from the outside, the Lions look more likely to retain most of their younger brigade then under Leppitsch or back in 2013 with the mass exodus of the "go home 5". They should be able to keep most of their important younger players from interstate and having two experienced and efficient operators in Fagan and Noble should help.

 

[Bazza97]

Excellent summation of the Lions future. I'd also want to include Mayes in the discussion, playing very well down back under Fagan. Drafted 2012 so he's probably more a part of the younger brigade than Beams etc.

Yep, like what Mayes has done and is a nice component to Brisbane's emerging HBFs and outside runners. They are going to be a really skilful side in the next few years.

 

[Bazza97]

Brisbane have some unbelievable talent that a lot of people have never heard of.

Harris Andrews will be an All Australian next year or the year after.

That wouldn't surprise me if he does, he's a terrific talent. Tom Cutler is another one who is underrated outside of Brisbane as well. if he hasn't already, Alex Witherden will start to get talked about a lot in the not too distant future. Has had a terrific start to his 4 game career so far and more impressive has his impact been at AFL level is the fact that he suffered a broken leg just last year.

 

[WWSD]

I really like the back six that Carlton are building. In 3-4 years time that defense could very well be the best in the league.

B: Plowman, Weitering, Byrne

HB: Docherty, Marchbank, Williamson

 

[Anja_Nees]

Carlton are doing ok. They are at least competitive most weeks. I think a cull at the end of the year of basically anyone over 23 who isn't a certain start is in order. Guys like Phillips, Lamb, Boekhorst and Palmer aren't the answer and I think they have an excess of deadwood from the GWS raids.

Lions have some serious star potential. One problem is the lack of mature players to guide the young ones. The problem is attracting some quality from another club but if they can get their hands on some quality mature players it'll help speed it up. Otherwise it might be a bit of a wait.

 

[Bazza97]

I really like the back six that Carlton are building. In 3-4 years time that defense could very well be the best in the league.

B: Plowman, Weitering, Byrne

HB: Docherty, Marchbank, Williamson

Yep, their backline has the potential to become one of the best if not the best in the comp. I forgot about Byrne, he was quite impressive before he ruptured his ACL last year. It's a talented back six you've listed and when you also consider Jones' rejuvenation as a key defender and Macreadie's potential as a hybrid defender who is capable of both intercepting and rebounding, it just shows the depth and potential of Carlton's defensive stocks.

 

[RUNVS]

Carlton are winning the rebuild comfortably as Carlton are capable of having wins where they genuinely look like the better team on the day. Brisbane have had a few wins but all of them are more of "how on earth did that other team play so badly that quarter" type wins rather than something that feels a little more sustainable.

 

[sjohns12]

At the moment Brisbanes only weaknesses appear to be things that will inevitably develop, such as experience or lack of size, i.e. Eric Hipwood. In my view they have talented players, potentially stars in all areas of the ground.

Carlton deserve lots of credit for the way they've gone about their footy, and their often stubborn refusal to be dominated by much superior teams. However, I feel they still have plenty of holes to fill before becoming a strong side.

 

[MightyTiger]

Both teams are fairly uninspiring, like all teams they have some good talent, I'd say Carlton are a fair bit behind, all 4 of Kreuzer/Murphy/Gibbs/Simpson are almost having career best years, and 2 of them are nearing retirement with Gibbs most likely heading back home at the end of the year, they'll also most likely lose Casboult setting them back even further.

Both Brisbane and Carlton play a gamestyle that cloggs up games, more so trying to limit damage and then counter punch when they can and drag other teams down to there level.

Brisbanes midfield group are in that 27-28-29 age bracket, couple years of good football left and then they'll be left with not much, gun spine with Andrews, McStay Schache and Hipwood, they'll need to find a replacement for Martin in the ruck as he's quality and is very underrated in the broader footballing community.

 

[Martin3121]

Brisbane has a much better spine I would of thought. Only problem is retention of players, hopefully they can keep them all together.

 

[TommyD13]

I reckon a lot depends on this off-season for these clubs, get it wrong and it could put the rebuild right back to the start

 

[bato]

It's good to see everyone worrying about our youth retention, despite it being one of the league's best these past few years.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Both teams are fairly uninspiring, like all teams they have some good talent, I'd say Carlton are a fair bit behind, all 4 of Kreuzer/Murphy/Gibbs/Simpson are almost having career best years, and 2 of them are nearing retirement with Gibbs most likely heading back home at the end of the year, they'll also most likely lose Casboult setting them back even further.

Both Brisbane and Carlton play a gamestyle that cloggs up games, more so trying to limit damage and then counter punch when they can and drag other teams down to there level.

Brisbanes midfield group are in that 27-28-29 age bracket, couple years of good football left and then they'll be left with not much, gun spine with Andrews, McStay Schache and Hipwood, they'll need to find a replacement for Martin in the ruck as he's quality and is very underrated in the broader footballing community.

We'll be left with our up and coming mids - Berry,Clug,Matho,Taylor,Cox,Keays et al. As well the lions will be targeting mids with our high picks this year and next as we are fine for KPP

 

[Established1870]

If Carlton got another 2 gun midfielders and 2 decent forwards, they could honestly make finals in 2 years if their defence kicks on. So much talent, potential and depth in their back 6 options already.

Long term Brisbane will have the better side and could conceivably have a potential dynasty on their hands again with the talent they have. Their midfield needs a few years to start dominating games and Hipwood needs a bit longer to get more consistent but when everything clicks for the Lions, they'll be a very powerful side IMO.

 

[MightyTiger]

We'll be left with our up and coming mids - Berry,Clug,Matho,Taylor,Cox,Keays et al. As well the lions will be targeting mids with our high picks this year and next as we are fine for KPP

None of them have shown the qualities or leadership that Beams, Rockliff and Zorko have, good young players nowhere near ready to to shoulder the load that will be left then these three are nearing the end in 2-3 years time when there beat football is nearing the end. Your spine will need 5-7 years to develop, that's hoping all goes well without hiccups such as injuries and players leaving or simply not developing into the players everybody hoped they would be.